America on the Line

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As hard as pollsters try, it is almost impossible to glean a sample of actual likely voters in an off-year election. Particularly this year, it is difficult to distinguish between dutiful voters who say they are likely to vote and those who are actually going to make it to the polls. As in any off-year election, turnout matters.

According to the latest Gallup Poll, Republicans only enjoy a 3-point lead in the generic party ballot among all registered voters. But among those most likely to vote, the edge expands to 18 points (56-38). Twice as many Republicans report themselves to be “very enthusiastic” about voting as Democrats in the survey.

Remember that Barack Obama got about the same percentage of white votes in 2008 as Kerry won in 2004. His victory was entirely due to a big increase in black turnout (from 11 percent of the vote in 2004 to 14 percent in 2008) and in his greater popularity among Latinos. Turnout elected Obama, and turnout will defeat his congressional majority

The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap against them by running exclusively negative campaigns against their Republican insurgent rivals. The vast proportion of Democratic and allied independent expenditure media is negative, portraying Republican congressional candidates as tax evaders, spousal abusers, mob-linked, eccentric flakes, sexual molesters and absentee officeholders (all actual charges against key GOP candidates). While these ads may chip away at the Republican vote share in the polls, they do nothing to generate a Democratic turnout.

The Democrats are without a theme, a message or a positive reason to go to the polls and vote. Negative ads are supposed to depress turnout — the last thing Democrats need. But when they come up against Republican enthusiasm, they may not do much to check the GOP rise.

But advertising is not the central event of the 2010 elections. Mass rallies and one-on-one soliciting are the keys to the outcome. Between the tea party groups and Americans for Prosperity, there is a vast army of conservatives bringing the GOP message to the streets of America.

And the Republicans are just gearing up to turn out their voters.

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  • Chezwick_Mac

    I think Dick's election prognostications are a bit too optimistic, but my great hope is that I'm wrong and he's right. I know I'm voting straight Republican across the board this Nov 2nd, not because of any great love for the GOP, but because of the monumental contempt I have for the Democrats, the party of appeasement, of trillion dollar-plus annual deficits…and of our poor-excuse for a Commander-in-Chief.

  • davarino

    I cant wait to see the smile wiped off of Ried's face. Him and Palosi, how dare they jam this "health care" thingy down our throat like they know better. The dems dont realize what they have done. They very well could have ruined thier party for a very long time. These amateurs had no clue what they were doing. I hope soros feels he got his monies worth heheheheheheheheheheheh

  • Wesley69

    I hope Morris is right about the Senate. If his predictions hold up, Congress would be then under the control of the Republicans and the Philosopher King's transformation wail be stopped, but Mr. O's veto pen will keep them from rolling it back. The Republicans will need to work with Mr. O, where they can, but never attack him personally, only his policies. Many investigations need to follow. Rules and regulations created by the Executive agencies need to be challenged. The Czars need to go. The Republicans must show they have a plan to move the country forward economically – jobs and the deficit. It is a tall order, but the Republicans have two years to prove to the voters they were the right choice in 2010 and will be again in 2012. And with a Republican President, they can begin the rollback.

    All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.
    Thomas Jefferson

  • Stephen_Brady

    I think that Dick is right.

    That said, my greatest worry is about 2012, because GOP control of Congress will gve the DEMs the ability to blame the Republican Party for anything that happens, short of nuclear war (that, they'll blame on Reagan). We've got to hold the GOP freshmen to their word, and continually warn them not to get into a drawn-out battle with the DEMs over some as-yet unidentified issue, which the Democrats will win in the media, by default. The exception to this is Healthcare. If we have the votes to override a veto, we need to repeal it.

  • bert

    Even if both houses go Republican we still face the great danger of an angry, dangerous, wounded animal in the Oval Office. He can still uses his powers to do great additional damage for another two years. I hope that the Republicans will have the courage to at least impeach Obama for his high crimes and misdemeanors. I hope that the Republicans will launch many investigations to further expose Obama's many crimes that will truly shock America. And if all else fails then we Americans may have to consider civil disobedience in order to survive.

  • USMCSniper

    Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. I still don't see alot of the many RINOs in the Republican party jumping on the conservative movement. In addition, the Dems are already gearing up for 2012 with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as running mates, And the American women with no capacity to understand how money is really earned will give them the Oval office again. Women sure have a lot of ideas on how to spend money that is not theirs. And when they vote, it's always for the candidate who will spend more money on education, subsidized shool lunches, more money on child care, more money on day care, and free medical, so they will vote Democrat.