The November Reckoning

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The magnitude of the catastrophe facing the Democratic Party in the fall elections is only gradually becoming clear to the leaders of both parties. The Democrats will lose both the Senate and the House. They will lose more House seats in 2010 than the 54 they lost in 1994, and they will lose the Senate, possibly with some seats to spare.

In state after state, the races that were once marginal are now solidly Republican, those that were possible takeaways are now likely GOP wins, and the impossible seats are now fully in play.

Colorado offers a good example. Betsey Markey was supposed to be a marginal new Democratic member. But Cory Gardner, her Republican opponent, is now more than 20 points ahead. John Salazar, the brother of the interior secretary and a well-established Democratic incumbent in a largely Republican district, is now almost 10 points behind his GOP challenger Scott Tipton. And Ed Perlmutter, a solidly entrenched Democrat in a supposedly nearly safe district, is running 1 point behind his GOP opponent, the unusually articulate Ryan Frazier (a black Republican with Obama-esque charisma). The Republicans will probably win all three seats.

Or take Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln is clinically dead, trailing John Boozman 65-27 in the latest Rasmussen poll. In the race that was supposed to be close for the open seat in AR-2, Republican Tim Griffin is massacring Democrat Joyce Elliott by 52-35. In the race that was thought to be a likely Democratic win — AR-1, the East Arkansas district — Republican Rick Crawford is running seven points ahead of Democrat Chad Causey. And, in the district that was considered a safe Democratic seat, the home of Blue Dog leader Mike Ross, Republican Beth Anne Rankin is showing surprising strength and may topple her opponent.

In the Senate, Republicans are solidly ahead in Delaware, North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas. They have good leads in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Washington. The Democratic incumbents are perpetually below 50 and basically tied with their Republican challengers in Nevada, California and Wisconsin.

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  • Beverley

    Congratulations and good luck America.

  • davarino

    Thank you mr President for showing America the real face of the democratic party.

  • Rifleman

    When it mattered the blue dogs showed they were nothing but a cheap gimmick. They aren't likely to fool conservative voters in their districts again.

    Lincoln had the power to stop the obamacare boondoggle and didn't. Voters in her district rightly blame her for the health care takeover being shoved down their throats.

  • Patrick Henry

    I may be getting ahead of the story, but how effective will the new conservative majority govern? With the deficit above $1.5 trillion, will the GOP have the stomach to cut that much? Obama will not only veto these cuts, but blame the "right-wing, do-nothing" Congress for all problems real or imagined. How will the GOP handle the next crisis, for example when (not if) the dollar collapses and hyperinflation sets in? Once foreign banks stop buying our debt and our banks start lending again, trillions of dollars will flood the domestic economy, prices will shoot through the roof, soon followed by interest rates. Will the votes be there in Congress to support free markets or more government intervention? If you understand how free markets work, you will know that the "malinvestments" must be liquidated and the currency return to a gold standard. If not, we will be lost in the proverbial desert for another 40 years.

  • samsgran1948

    Patrick Henry is right about a GOP majority's reaction to post-election events. But instead of waiting for the election, the GOP needs to get out in front of the PR battle right this very minute. It also needs to grow a pair, and stop shaking in their boots every time a Democrat calls them "mean-spirited" or "greedy". The MSM is never going to approve of the GOP, and it will always shill for the Dems.Deal with it, and stop being such weenies.As a whole, the US is much more conservative than it is liberal. Seize the initiative now while the Dems are totally freaking out.

    • Wideband

      Absolutely right to Patrick Henry and samsgran – additionally, the GOP needs to come up with a positive coherent plan and sell it. Say what you want about the Dems, but they stick together when the chips are down- see Obamacare. Conservatives need to do the same.

  • holyhiway

    I hope this means Obama can finally be impeached.

    • Lucky Gal

      waste of time and energy. Tried that with Clinton and failed. No need to repeat. Just work on getting more consertatives elected and then stay on their tails to keep them from becoming "co-opted" by the likes of Trent Lott and liberal Republicans. Got much govenment dismantling to do and crippling regulations to repeal.

  • frank

    Democrat or Republican, career politicians have ruined this country. They lie to get elected and lie some more to get reelected. The Democrats are handing the Senate and the House to Republicans on a silver platter. Will the Republicans have the balls to take advantage? I am not sure. Too many rinos who pander to special interest groups and are scared to be labeled as racist, homophobes, islamophobes and whatever else the Dems come up with.

  • dusgusted

    I know longer even think of our politicians as being politicians. They are social engineers. Politicians should be advancing the cause of democracy, freedom and industry and mainly upholding our constitutional guarantees. Instead they are stuffing their pockets with Saudi money, bribing each other for their votes and basically ignoring the reason that they go elected in the first place. This group in DC thinks they can change the very nature of human beings. The people who are still with them are the least educated, least contributing members of our society hoping to suck us dry. They want to sit back do nothing and when they want something, like medical care, or a college education these do nothings want us to pay for it. We're turning into a regressive culture where we cannot go forward because the weight of these parasites have slowed us down to a crawl. In the biggest act of double-speak, they call themselves "progressives." I can call roadkill filet mignon, but it is still road kill. The progressives, in double-speak parlance want their states to be colored in "blue" while the conservatives get left with the "red" symbol for communism. Obama is giving this economic-class war validity. I have always felt, and raised my children to believe, if you work hard and honestly, you will get somewhere. Now I have to say, oops, no, if you sit back, do nothing complain a lot, and elect communists you will get somewhere in life. Just bitch about the unfairness of life and let the baser of your emotions, like jealousy, be your guiding principal. Oh, the unfairness of it all. I get to watch everything I've worked for and sacrificed for being taken away from me and given to the "less fortunate." When I left my parent's home, I had nothing. They didn't help me through college, no trust fund, nothing. And, Obama wants to take everything away from me to help those "less fortunate." Excuse me? Mr. Obama, sell your mansion in Illinois and give the proceeds from your book all to charity and the vacations that cost the American tax payers millions of dollars? Is that really fair? How about the imam that the taxpayers sent on a junket? Excuse me, aren't we at war against what this man is preaching? Bailing out financial companies, car companies, etc. that made bad decisions? I didn't buy the latest in clothes, a new car I couldn't afford, run up my credit card until I couldn't pay even the monthly minimum. Why am I being made to pay for their mistakes. Let them eat the fruit of the tree they planted and quit coming into my back yard stealing the fruit off my tree.

    Please, America, never again.

    • Chris

      Well said!

  • disgusted

    Yes big brother.

  • disgusted

    There was absolutely nothing that I said on my post which should have been censored. I have always supported FPM but since this new censorship BS has appeared on your website I'm almost to the point of opting out. If you believe in freedom of speech, then what is this crap?

  • John

    Look at the photo at the top of this page. What a fine collection of douche bags + a witch. What's wrong with voters? How was this made possible? Wake up, America!

  • Len Powder

    The November elections are not the end of the line. Even if we take the House and Senate we will need to continue being vigilant and remain involved. If we take our eyes of these politicians they will revert to statist mode. We can never be complacent or indifferent again, even with a majority. Government is by nature corrupt and tyrannical and must be reigned in and held accountable.

  • quark1912

    Obama may be the longest serving lame duck president ever.