The Transforming Fire

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But the gains are only relative. It is worth noting that where this alliance comes up against strong and determined opposition, it tends to be stopped in its tracks.  I would cite Israel and Egypt as two examples of strong states that each in its own way has stood its ground and faced down this alliance. Operation Cast Lead is a good example of what can be achieved in this regard, in a war which in essence saw Israel and Egypt combine to face down a local member of the Iranian-led alliance.  Egypt’s efforts to repress domestic manifestations of this alliance, and the ongoing strength and buoyancy of Israeli society and economy are further proof of the limited strength of the Iran-led alliance.  It is worth remembering that Iran in the final analysis is a third world country, and its allies are terror groups, capable of and willing to commit acts of great violence, and also willing to die in the pursuit of their goals. This gives them a certain strength, but it is ultimately a brittle strength, unlike the strength which derives from a strong, powerful state and economy.

FP: Shed some light for us on the weakness and confusion of the West. What is causing it?

Spyer: My sense is that large parts of the populations of the western democracies have lost a vivid sense of the worthiness of their own societies and the very great virtues of the western democratic system.

In western Europe especially, one has a sense of societal fatigue, cynicism, lack of direction, even decadence.  This absence among large numbers of people of an active faith in the rightness of the free way of life they enjoy I think produces a certain moral and subsequently political flabbiness. This makes it a difficult and slow process to identify obvious and real threats and enemies.

The threat of Islamism, both domestically and internationally for these countries, is perhaps the classic example of this.  For those of us, like Israelis, who come from the ‘frontiers’ of the democratic world, from the points where that world intersects with rival and hostile systems, this easy, blurred outlook is a luxury we can’t afford. We aren’t the only ones to feel that way. Other ‘frontier democracies’ like Poland and in a different way India share a similar outlook to Israel in this regard, and this makes for the very easy communication and friendship which we have with these countries. But in the western heartland there has been a fading of this energy, and it needs to be won back.  That’s the real fight, in a way. Once this energy and commitment returns, I think support for and solidarity with Israel tend to accompany it as a matter of course.  Where this commitment is absent, there you find the unreasoning hostility to Israel and sometimes the desire to see it thrown to the wolves.

FP: How will this conflict end do you think?

Spyer: The conflict will end in one of two ways – either in the destruction of Jewish statehood, or in the defeat and decline of Iran, and the fading of Islamist movements and ideologies into irrelevance.  I think it will be the latter. As I said, the Iran/Islamist alliance is ultimately an alliance of backward states and movements whose only currency is the uncompromising practice of political violence. This can get you only so far. As the alliance suffers blows from determined Israeli and Arab resistance to it, as its promises of building successful powerful countries recedes – with its rule producing only brutally repressive regimes such as the Hamas enclave in Gaza, so its luster will gradually fade.

There may be decisive military engagements along the way. This is impossible to predict.  But the Iran/Islamist alliance commits the fatal error of a massive underestimation of its enemy. It knows nothing of the reality of Israel, and imagines it to be a lost, artificial country whose citizens have little commitment to it. This is a fundamental misunderstanding, and as the hubris of this alliance is worn away by defeat, setback and lack of achievement, so the masses currently excited by it will turn away in disappointment.

FP: Expand for us on the strengths of Israel and also why the Iran/Islamist alliance so profoundly underestimates it.

Spyer: The Iran/Islamist alliance underestimates Israel for a number of reasons. Firstly, there is a traditional Islamic contempt for the Jews, which sees them as a naturally weak and subaltern people, not fitted for the bearing of sovereignty.  This view is deeply rooted, and seen from it, Israel looks like an absurd pretension and a surely temporary anomaly.  Secondly, strategic optimism of a sometimes unreasoning variety has been a very characteristic element of Arab ideological movements in modern times.  They are always able to convince themselves that they are on the road to victory, even when to the rest of us, they seem to be in tatters.  In this regard, as in many others, the current Iranian regime has imbibed a great deal of Arab political culture. Some Iranian friends of mine regard Ahmedinejad and the Revolutionary Guards element as representing a quite alien political pattern, taken from the Arab world and grafted onto Iran. I don’t have sufficient expertise in Iran to know if that’s true. But certainly the extreme self belief, hubris and arrogance of this regime and its various clients is very familiar to any student of modern Arab political culture.

Regarding Israel’s strengths, well, the country’s economic achievements and so on are not news to anybody. I think there is a deeper element at work, though.  Israel is a very powerfully rooted country, whose people have a vivid sense of who they are, rooted in Jewish history.  This is not a case of people recruited for service by some brittle modern ideology.  Rather, Israel is built ultimately on a profoundly powerful, pre-modern, even primordial sense of Jewish identity which modern Zionism has, so to speak, carried into modern political form.  This is a very potent element.  It is still in the process of coming to fruition in myriad ways, but it has already created a very strong core.

Of course, one could argue that there are still profound contradictions to be worked out in Israel regarding making this core loyalty work properly in a democratic setting, and regarding the correct balance between tradition and modernity.  Israel has not yet answered many questions relating to this. But the root identity of the country is firm and strong.  This is something which Israel’s many adversaries – and here one must include the ‘moderate’ Palestinians of the West Bank Palestinian Authority as well as the Iran/Islamist alliance – are absolutely determined not to accept.  Yet it remains the case.

FP: Jonathan Spyer, thank you for joining Frontpage Interview.

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  • solemnman

    Because of the bankrupt state of the Iranian economy the money ,that has bought the Shiite Lebanese allegiance ,is already drying up.

    • Chezwick_Mac

      With oil at $92 a barrel and rising, Iran is far from bankrupt. If oil fell back to $50, Iran AND Venezuela would be disintegrating before our eyes. But I think those days of relatively cheap oil are gone forever.

      • jacob

        Then the right think to do is to force them to take their oil and shove it…

        Of course, such would require a different approach with the oil companies
        policy, send packing the environmentalists with their nonsense about where
        to drill for oil and where not (as it is happening right now to the climate
        dOomsayers ie AL GORE) and switch the automotive fluid to LPG or natural

        However, do not expect it from the ruling elites…

        Just now, the ANNOITED ONE is vacationing again in HAWAII, probably
        saving fuel flying on AIR FORCE ONE, while BUSH, the author of the
        economic debacle according to OBAMA used to vacation at his TEXAS,
        USA, ranch…


      • EVAbeliever

        Iran can't refine its oil. And the price per barrel is a commodities driven price not cost of oil price. Iran is falling apart at the seams economically and that is what makes them dangerous. When countries fail the first to be blamed are the Jews. With desperation Iran may look to start a war between Israel and Hezbollah just to distract the Iranians from the truth.

        • Chezwick_Mac

          "And the price per barrel is a commodities driven price not cost of oil price."

          I can assure you, Iran is receiving $92 a barrel for their oil. You're right about their need to import refined gasoline…and you're also right that they have severe economic problems, but as long as oil remains as high as it is, their economy won't collapse.

          I've been reading about the imminent demise of the "Islamic Republic" for 30 years. I'm still waiting….