Crunching the Unemployment Numbers

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The new unemployment numbers were released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and on the surface the rate is unchanged at 9.5 percent. However, there’s a lot that can be discerned about what’s really going on by looking just below the surface.

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 jobs this past month. That means the figure doesn’t include consultants or freelance people, like myself, who aren’t part of a regular payroll, as well as people working on a farm of any kind. However, private sector payroll employment jumped up, which is great news, by 71,000 jobs.

The difference between those two figures is all of the federally employed census workers whose job expired. They were artificially raising the employment rate through the spring and summer, which we knew was going to happen and we knew that it would come to an end.

So, the rate of unemployment by the federal government for long-term hires stayed the same. However, the private sector of small to mid-size businesses and corporations hired some new people. Since that’s the place most of us will find a new job that’s great news. The rock is rolling in the right direction.

The numbers for people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more and are still searching, long-term unemployed, remain unchanged as well as those who involuntarily switched from full time to part time employment. Those who have been out of work the longest are still not getting hired, which means it’s probably time to get help with the resume, the how-to’s of a job interview and to open up the spectrum of jobs a bit wider.

At some point we have to face the possibility that it’s a bad economy but we may be playing a part in it too. We can ask for some help and guidance and then be willing to just do it without all of the blather about why we can’t change.

There is also some good news buried in that 9.5 percent unemployment rate. Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs mostly in the car industry, which is also good news for the rest of us because manufacturing jobs tend to have a nice roll-out affect for the rest of us.

People buy news cars, which spurs the industry to hire people to build something who then have money to spend at other businesses who then have to order more stuff for their shelves who then turn back to manufacturing.

The hardest part of recovering from a recession is getting that cycle to just start. The fact that it’s starting mostly in one of the hardest-hit areas, automotive, is even further reason to believe that the deepest parts of the recession are over. That doesn’t mean the climb out isn’t going to take awhile.

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  • brimp

    According the Shadow Government Statistics, http://www.shadowstats.com , If unemployment was measured the same way as it was in the 1960's, it would be calculated as 22%. Every administration since LBJ has fudged the numbers to make their programs look more successful. The problem is that these changes to the way the statistics are calculated are compounded. Now most of the numbers coming out of D.C. are totally bogus.

    • Melissa

      You are right, they do not count the college grads who cannot draw unemployment because they have never worked, or the high school grads! Someone finally got one right! Even the women that have never worked that have always been home with their kids are not counted! We need an executive order and screw FOX TV AND THE GOP!

  • cedarhill

    One needs to wait until the real, adjusted downward, numbers are released next month. Given the Obama czar/commissar approach, none of their numbers are believable.

    • Melissa

      You still dont get it do you? Your racist attitude shows! People are starving and homeless, children are hungry and you think we can all wait until next month? If it were not for the GOP and FOX tv and the republicans voting no just to make the president look bad, there would be progress in the economy, where did you go to school for finance?

  • fox

    I think we should give no aid to pakistan,afganistan,iran,or hamas at any time until they stop suicide bombers, and all terrorist around the world,and capture or kill usama bin laden.This goes for natural disasters,and kill the poppie fields.This goes for North Korea.

    • Melissa

      Who cares at this point about your crap! US citizens are starving due to FOX TV and the GOP not helping the unemployed they claim are lazy and drug addicts! I want everyone at fox tv drug tested, including good old Glenn boy, and the entire republican party! Take your poppie fields you goone and shuv em up your a**!Children are starving try helping one!

  • Melissa

    MSNBC is the only station that cares about the unemployed! FOX TV is bashing Nancy Pelosi for her gesture,3 some odd months ago? Your station never tells the truth or they beat around the bush just to make the president look bad! Glenn Beck is a disgrace to christianity! Also to the geek that wrote about the 5% that utilize unemployment for the wrong reasons, well they will have starved by now, and by this time sweeties, they will be back on welfare, because they have no home in forclosure or anywhere else to go! Also I watched Sarah Palin today, I could have just laughed my A** off when a woman started to debate her, Sarah sounded like an idiot as usual but soon the lady shut her up quick! Sarah ran her mouth until she found out the woman was a teacher, and then the look on Sarahs face was like a deer in the headlights! Whats wrong Sarah? Afraid you might pronounce a word wrong? HA HA What an idiot, Keith on countdown You gotta say that more often, I missed hearing it last night!

  • Melissa

    Fox TV and the republican party and all the racist people in this country that have pulled together to form the new republican party (the GOP) Shame on you all! Just because the president has black skin? You all look rediculas! Mr. President, its time for an executive order and an address to the nation to let people know that the republicans do not care about starving children! Or the unemployed homeless!

  • Melissa

    I saw the list under Muslim dating sites, actions FOX and the GOP speak louder than words. You all make me sick! You are not what I call American! Your all trying to take us all back to civil war times! FOX TV your insane!!!

  • Melissa

    Frontpagemag.com,
    Your needing to keep better company and possibly get some class to add to your magazine!!! Your in desperate need!!

  • Melissa

    Thats a great new name for your magazine!

  • truth to tell

    Poor Melissa she seems to be thoroughly caught in liberal think

  • To the ignorant

    Malissa is an ignorant idiot that got the diarrhea of the mouth and no body is taking the time to just tell her to go away.

    Or better yet why don't you, dear Malissa, give everything you own to feed the starving poor children!

    It will make you feel better and you will finely shut up!!!!!!!!!