The health care battle isn’t quite over. Many states are going to fight it as unconstitutional, and the GOP is on track to win the Senate in November, as I wrote on February 26. The trend for the Democratic candidates is still downwards and probably can’t be stopped or reversed by November. A Senate and/or House takeover will enable the Republican Party to complicate funding for the bill.
Right now, I think the GOP has a lock on winning six Senate seats, bringing the minimum post-election number to 47. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey is currently ahead, bringing it to 48. If Dino Rossi runs in Washington and Tommy Thompson runs in Wisconsin, they are currently polling ahead of their opponents as well, bringing the total to 50.
In the event of a 50-50 split, there is a very good chance that Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans. That may not even be necessary as Barbara Boxer is now in a dead heat in California and a GOP victory in Illinois is not out of the question, although the Democrats are on average about 6 points ahead there according to RealClearPolitics.
Then comes 2012. If the GOP controls Congress and the Presidency, this bill will be repealed. Just because I can’t resist, let me analyze the 2012 race that has already begun. Mitt Romney has a delicate balancing act ahead of him. I believe he is currently the front-runner and the primary calendar heavily favors him, but he needs to convince the Republican base now that his health care isn’t a state version of Obama’s. Otherwise, one of his two signature issues (the other being the economy) becomes his biggest vulnerability.
I keep a list of the potential 2012 candidates on my computer so that I can keep track of every candidate openly considering a bid. Left off the list for now is Bobby Jindal, because he is making no obvious moves geared towards 2012, is running for re-election, and has repeatedly said he will not run.
Here is the list:
I won’t lie. Part of the reason I threw in the list of candidates is because it always causes fierce debate in the comments section. So, whose hand do you envision signing a bill repealing ObamaCare?