Primary Roulette

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Regarding Palin and Romney, it seems that the two face the opposite problem in their paths to the White House.

Palin could win the Republican nomination, but it’s difficult to see how she can win a general election, given the national narrative about her that has been written in cement by the mainstream media. Fair or not, Big Media has defined her in a certain way and hence those who rely on Big Media—people who are not GOP primary voters—have defined her that way. In other words, it seems she has been “Dan Quayled” in the eyes of many voters. She did herself no favors by not completing her term as governor. As one observer noted, “The attack ad writes itself: ‘She quit on Alaska. Will she quit on us?’”  Whether these criticisms and narratives are fair is a subject for another essay.

As for Romney, he could win a general election. He has a record of building consensus and solving problems. He even has the look and demeanor of a president—tall, square-jawed, proud and unapologetic of America. He won points with many conservatives in 2007, when he declared, “The best ally peace has in the world is a strong America…It is because of America’s strength that we don’t all speak German and that our kids don’t all speak Russian. And it is because of America’s strength that our grandchildren will not have to speak Farsi or Arabic or Chinese.” The problem for Romney is winning the primary. The healthcare law he shepherded through Massachusetts will be an albatross around his neck in the primaries. Again, the attack ad writes itself: “Before there was ObamaCare, there was MittCare.”

There are 47 GOP senators, all of whom think they can/should be president. That just comes with the territory in the U.S. Senate.

We won’t discuss all 47 of them here, but there are some Republican senators who could make a strong case and a strong run. Sen. Lamar Alexander has conservative credentials, an easy-going, unthreatening way about him, experience as a governor, and experience running for president. He virtually ran non-stop in the late 1990s.

Sen. Jim DeMint would be a darling of the conservative base, as would Sen. John Thune. Speaking of darlings of the conservative base, could Sen. Marco Rubio follow the Obama model and make a run without much of a record for his opponents to attack? He already has experience defeating a once-popular chief executive.

But how about the “one Republican who cuts through all the clutter,” in the words of political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz? “That’s Sen. Jon Kyl from Arizona. In all the testing we’ve done…over the tax issue, his language is the most unifying, the most supported.”

Indeed, Kyl’s approach to taxes and deficits sounds like neither Obama’s grow-the-government programs nor a greed-is-good Gordon Gecko impersonation nor an Adam Smith seminar. “The key is to put people back to work, to get growth going,” Kyl explains, noting the tax increases are not the solution. “Jobs are created by people who have money, and about 25 percent of all of the jobs in the country are created by small business…We’re never going get out of the deficit we have unless we have economic growth. That will produce wealth, the government taxes that wealth, [and] that’s good for the country and good for the government.”

Kyl is statesmen-like, conservative enough for primary voters and reasonable enough for moderates, who have fled Obama in droves and probably won’t return. Kyl could certainly carry the “spend less of our money, tax less of our wealth, intrude less in our lives” mantle.

Finally, we can’t dismiss the possibility of a primary challenger for Obama. If there is one, it will come from his base. The elder Bush had Buchanan. Carter had Kennedy. Johnson had McCarthy. I hear Keith Olbermann is looking for new career opportunities.

Alan Dowd writes on politics and public policy.

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  • tagalog

    Don't write off Newt Gingrich!

  • Jeamar37

    Personally, I think Romney is most qualified but is unelectable It isn't talked about publicaly in the SW but there is a lot of anti-Mormon sentiment here with even a pastor from a main-line Protestant denomination in Phoenix teaching his Bible-study class Mormonism is a cult. As that spreads to Christians in other parts of the country, especially the East, where most people have never met a Mormon, it will be a big obstacle to overcome. None of the current Republican candidates are very inspiring except for possibly John Bolton, but he doesn't have a chance either. Too intellectual, too realistic, not charismatic enough for people who vote with emotion rather than reason.

  • MERLIN

    Romney has taken a strong stand — on both sides of many issues. He s exactly what Republicans and the nation don't need. Comparing him with Christie because they both won in Democrat states is absurd: Romney surrendered to the Democrats, but Christie is fighting them. Perry or Daniels might do, but they are going to have to do a lot more to build a national image. Right now, Palin has more charisma than the sum of the entire rest of the field. She can have the nomination if she wants it, and then will get to debate Obama. In a live no-teleprompter event with real give-and-take, she would demolish him. After that we will see how her negatives look.

  • BLJ

    I would not write off Palin's chances either. There are more people out there who can relate to her that the trolls in the MSM would like to admit. Her down to earth style sits well with many Americans.

    The reason the MSM and the Left have went after her so hard is because they are scared to death. They know that she has what it takes to get Comrade Obama out of the WH.

  • Chris

    Please – no Huckabee or Gingrich. Huckabee is a RINO and Gingrich isn't trustworthy, having his own agenda of self-promotion. Good grief, in a country this size, is this the best we can do? I would love to see Palin in a Cabinet post, but it's too soon for the presidency.

  • BS77

    Not pictured above is a great crowd pleaser…Yes, Donald Trump. Donald Trump would make a great president…..he's an excellent businessman, leader…he's creative….has lots of experience as an executive; I always liked his show The Apprentice. He would be a great improvement!!!!

  • http://www.squidoo.com/happy-wife-happy-life-maariage-tips-for-men Frank Hohiudden

    Well I guess I don’t need to blog about this as you seem to have it covered very well. thank you for posting this.