Obama’s Base Problem


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Similarly, like MoveOn, Labor unions have also recalculated, shifting resources away from Democrats who are increasingly seen as not representing their interests.  In fact, union contributions to national candidates, the vast majority of which go to Democrats, have declined almost 40% since 2009.  While this is an unmistakable indication of labor discontent, it is also part of a larger strategy now in its initial stages.

AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka, the leader of the largest labor union in the United States, is currently building a political organization that intends to operate independently from the Democratic Party.  This effort could have profound political implications both in the near and long term.  It is well known, for instance, that Democrats are heavily reliant on union cash for their campaigns.  This move means even less labor money for their party machine. And, if labor were to field candidates of its own, they could split the liberal vote, tipping tight races to Republicans.  A nightmarish scenario for Democrats who will do all they can to avoid this future specter.

At present, though, as Obama confronts leftist discontent, whether labor or otherwise, he faces a real dilemma.  The broad electorate has long soured on his policies.  His approval rating stands at 42%.  Support among independents hovers in the low 30s.  The latest CNN survey shows that 65% disapprove of his economic leadership, while a CBS poll finds that only 19% approve of the nation’s current course heading.  Tacking leftward in this climate isn’t likely to be politically successful, but the president must still be mindful of his base.  His dramatic increase in class-warfare rhetoric is, in part, an attempt to appeal to the party’s core.  As is his recent endorsement of a plan to impose a surtax on the wealthy.  That such a policy would do nothing to create jobs, broaden the base or grow the economy is unimportant to Obama; he is already in campaign mode.

The White House knows Democrats may not have an alternative on Election Day next year, but many could elect to stay home.

The larger question, though, is this:  how did leftist disillusionment become so politically potent that it now undermines Obama’s 2012 prospects?  The answer is a multifaceted one.

In part, as it is often cited, expectations were unrealistically high.  Set both by Obama’s soaring rhetoric and the Left’s misreading of the public mood.  Americans, so their narrative went, were tired of Republicans, conservatism and all things Bush and were more willing to embrace liberal ideology.  It didn’t quite work out that way.

Additionally, many committed leftists believe that Obama deceived them by campaigning as a “transformational” progressive figure while governing from the “corporate center right.”  Indeed, Matthew Rothschild, editor of The Progressive, even suggests that progressives are not the president’s “real base.”  Instead, Rothschild claims it’s Wall Street.  While such an assertion strains credulity, it’s worth noting that many leftists view Obama’s corporate ties with disdain.  Incidentally, those ties may make it difficult for Democrats to benefit from the left-wing “Occupy Wall Street” protests now making headlines.

Nevertheless, it is clear that Rothschild and his ilk believe Obama has abandoned them.  On health care, the lack of a public option and the failure to push for a signal payer system is often mentioned, as is the “small” size of the 830 billion dollar stimulus package. “Capitulation” on tax cuts for “millionaires and billionaires” is seen as another slight, while the decision to not move on a proposed EPA regulation left liberals dazed. On foreign policy…well, this is, after all, only a brief sampling of their grievances.

So what to make of these developments?  Like labor unions who seek independence from Democrats with the creation of their own political conduit, the progressive-minded are also distancing themselves, if not from the Democratic Party, certainly from President Obama.  They simply don’t trust him.

They must distance themselves, of course.  For leftists will never concede their message to be unpopular, or their ideology ruinous.  It must be the messenger, even if that messenger is Barack Obama.

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  • BLJ

    Obama can have the hard left. He has lost most of the guilty white vote as well as a good majority of the independents. Obama is a total joke not only as President but as a human being.

  • maturin20

    What about his acid problem? Don't ignore the POTUS PH.