Understanding the Third Terror War

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This article is reprinted from Jerusalem Post.

What are we to make of the fact that no one has taken credit for Wednesday’s bombing in Jerusalem?

Wednesday’s bombing was not a stand-alone event. It was part and parcel of the new Palestinian terror war that is just coming into view. As Israel considers how to contend with the emerging onslaught, it is important to notice how it differs from its predecessors.

On a military level, the tactics the Palestinians have so far adopted are an interesting blend of state-of-the-art missile attacks with old-fashioned knife and bomb-in-the-briefcase attacks. The diverse tactics demonstrate that this war is a combination of Iranian-proxy war and local terror pick-up cells. The attacks are also notable for their geographic dispersion and for the absence thus far of suicide attacks.

For the public, the new tactics are not interesting and the message they send is nothing new. With or without suicide bombers, Israelis understand that we are entering a new period of unremitting fear, where we understand that we are in danger no matter where we are. Whether we’re in bed asleep, or our way to work or school, or sitting down on a park bench or at a restaurant, whether we’re in Rishon Lezion, Sderot, Jerusalem, Itamar or Beersheba, we are in the Palestinians’ crosshairs. All of us are “settlers.” All of us are in danger.

The military innovations are important for IDF commanders who need to figure out how to answer the public’s demand for security. They will have to draw operational conclusions about the challenges this mix of tactics and strategic architecture poses.

While the military rationales of the various Palestinian terrorists are important, like its two predecessors, the new Palestinian terror war is first and foremost a political war. Like its two predecessors, which began in 1987 and 2000, the new terror war’s primary purpose is not to murder Jews. Killing is just an added perk. The new war’s primary purpose is to weaken Israel politically in order to bring about its eventual collapse.

And it is in this political context that the various terror armies’ refusal to take responsibility for Wednesday’s attack in Jerusalem, and their moves to shroud in ambiguity much of the responsibility for their recent terror activity is noteworthy. In the past, Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad were quick to take credit for massacres.

Initially it seemed as though that standard practice was being continued in the newest round of murder. Fatah’s Aksa Martyrs Brigades, for instance, were quick to take credit for the massacre of the Fogel family in Itamar on March 12. Hamas seemed to be competing for credit when its forces held a public celebration of the atrocity in Gaza City on March 13.

But then Fatah withdrew its claim of responsibility, and Hamas never claimed credit.

As for the rocket and missile barrages from Gaza, Hamas took credit for the 58 projectiles shot off on southern Israel last Saturday. But then it let Islamic Jihad take credit for the longer-range Katyusha attacks on Rishon Lezion, Beersheba, Gedera and Ashdod this week.

And again, no one took credit for the bombing in Jerusalem on Wednesday.

WHAT DOES this sudden bout of modesty tell us about how the Palestinian terror masters view the current onslaught against Israel? What does it teach us about their assessment of their political challenges and goals?

In the two previous terror wars, the terror groups had two motivations for taking credit for their attacks. The first reason was to expand their popularity. In Palestinian society, the more Jews you kill, the more popular you are.

The main reason Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian elections was that the Palestinians believed Hamas terror was responsible for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in August 2005. Even though Fatah actually killed more Jews than Hamas did between 2000 and 2005, Hamas reaped greater rewards for its attacks because its record was unblemished by political engagement with Israel.

The second reason the various groups have always been quick to take credit for attacks is that they wanted to show their state sponsors that they were putting their arms, training and financial support to good use. Saddam Hussein and the Saudi royals paid handsome rewards to the families of killed and captured terrorists. Over the past several decades, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have spent hundreds of millions of dollars arming, training and financing Palestinian terror cells from Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad alike.

The fact that today neither Hamas nor Fatah is interested in taking credit for Wednesday’s bombing in Jerusalem or for the massacre of the Fogel family is a signal that something fundamental is changing in the political dynamic between the two factions. Before considering what the change may be, a word of explanation about Islamic Jihad is in order.

Islamic Jihad was founded by Iran in 1988. Unlike Hamas and Fatah, Islamic Jihad has no political aspirations. It has no political operatives, and it is content to limit its operations to terrorism.

After the much larger and more powerful Hamas subordinated its command and control to Iran in 2005, Islamic Jihad has served as nothing more than a Hamas sub-contractor. It carries out and takes credit for attacks when Hamas doesn’t wish to do so.

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  • Andres de Alamaya

    All this fancy analysis is interesting but does nothing for the cause of progress. The whole world knows that these acts of aggression are not being committed by the Swedes or Romanians or Italians. They are committed by Arabs who live in Israel. Israel needs to respond in a way that might dissuade them from such acts. Not an eye for an eye but a head for an eye. All Islamic aggression gets cooked up in mosques. Therefore, every time they blow up a bomb or lob a rocket, Israel needs to destroy a mosque. And if that doesn't work, after all the mosques have been reduced to dust, Israel needs to do what the Jihadists keep telling Israelis they will do – drive them all into the sea.

    • Ellene

      Thank you for that. Grand idea. I wish they would start today. Israel has too many appeasers. Unbelievably, their past has not taught them to be vigilant enough or tough enough to do what has to be done to control the terrorists

  • Jack

    Competing for credit and celebrating the murder of 3 babies and their parents is all we need to know about these scum of the earth .

  • muchiboy

    "take credit for the massacre of the Fogel family in Itamar on March 12. Hamas seemed to be competing for credit when its forces held a public celebration of the atrocity in Gaza City on March 13.
    But then Fatah withdrew its claim of responsibility, and Hamas never claimed credit."
    I could respond by citing in turn unconscionable acts of inhumanity committed against the Palestinian people by Israeli's and the IDF,but won't.The violence and sheer cruelty of this act against an innocent Israeli Jewish family is such that it needs unqualified condemnation.Likely it wasn't committed by a mad man,but one cannot rule out a combination of political agenda and national enmity.Let us be very clear,the Palestinian people have a legitimate political agenda that needs to be addressed,and Israelis have failed miserably and morally here.As unfortunately as it may be,there is undeniably a religious/ethnic component/hatred to the conflict.Prolonged war and armed conflict tend to incur these sentiments.Still,individual acts of inhumanity and cruelty may be dismissed,however reluctantly,but when they are part of a wider,deeper intentional plan,they must be universally condemned and punished.When such atrocities are indeed wildly celebrated by the populace (and I would need independent,collaborative evidence of this),this too needs condemnation,and an examination by the religious and academic members of the wider society.muchiboy

    • ziontruth

      "…the Palestinian people have a legitimate political agenda that needs to be addressed…"

      No, the agenda of the Arab settlers in Israel, of robbing the Jewish nation (the one and only true Palestinian nation!) of the one single tiny piece of land they have is not a legitimate political agenda. Anti-Zionism is illegitimate, an agenda of injustice. For the sake of a just and viable peace, all Arab settlers must evacuate the indigenous soil of the Palestinian nation, the Jewish nation.

    • ajnn

      1. "I could respond by citing in turn unconscionable acts of inhumanity committed against the Palestinian people by Israeli's and the IDF,but won't."

      No, you can't. In fact, this is a classic bit of moral inversion. You ask your audience to use its imagination to condemn israeli acts that exist only in that imagining.

      2. "there is undeniably a religious/ethnic component/hatred to the conflict". Are you agreeing that this is a religious war against the jews; a war that has been going on for hundreds of years and is now, in the rest of the middle east (where there are no jews) being carried out against christians ?

      We need to notice that the same briutality and lynchings targeting israel are also targeting christians. the only difference is that the jews have an actual country to use to defend themselves.

    • SpiritOf1683

      Well, Naziboy, I guess your kids were munching armfuls of sweets on 13th March, weren't they?

    • MixMChess

      "I could respond by citing in turn unconscionable acts of inhumanity committed against the Palestinian people by Israeli's and the IDF,but won't."

      No you CAN'T. Israel does not intentionally decapitate sleeping 4-year old children! Israel goes out of its ways to avoid civilian casualties, whereas the goal of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist is to create civilian casualties. For instance, from 2000-2003 over 80% of Israelis killed were civilians, whereas less than 35% of Palestinians killed were civilians. The Israeli army has one of the strictest rules of engagement of any country in the world, which values the lives of Palestinian civilians over the lives of its own soldiers.

    • MixMChess

      "Likely it wasn't committed by a mad man,but one cannot rule out a combination of political agenda and national enmity.Let us be very clear,the Palestinian people have a legitimate political agenda that needs to be addressed,and Israelis have failed miserably and morally here."

      WRONG, the Palestinians do not have any legitimate grievances. And no matter what, none of their supposed grievances justify terror and the slaughter of innocent children.

      Terrorism committed by the Palestinians is a tactical strategy that is orchestrated, financed and supported by Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and other terrorist groups. It is an attack against the weak, innocent and defenseless. Palestinians don't target military installations or military personnel. They target children and babies, the young and the old. As Amnesty International and the International Red Cross (both highly critical of Israel) have noted, Palestinian terrorism is a "crime against humanity" and cannot be justified under any circumstances, including so-called "resistance" and Palestinian "grievances."

      Besides, Palestinians have had options, but they have repeatedly rejected compromise solutions that would have established an Arab state alongside a Jewish state-in 1937, 1947, 1969, 1979 and 2000. Had they accepted the United Nations Partition plan in 1947, their Arab state in Palestine would now be 57 years old. But in each case, they rejected the compromises and chose war or violence instead. In contrast, Israel accepted or actually proposed each compromise solution.

    • MixMChess

      "When such atrocities are indeed wildly celebrated by the populace (and I would need independent,collaborative evidence of this),this too needs condemnation,and an examination by the religious and academic members of the wider society."

      Huh? Are you serious?
      http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4041106

      Now are you ready to reexamine the disgusting morals of your beloved Palestinians?

    • aspacia

      The vast Arab world could absorb its brethren, just as tiny Israel absorbs its brethren. That would ease the Arab suffering. Remember, the Muslim agenda is to destroy all Jews and Israel, not help its brethren.

  • moshesharon

    One of the major weapons in this propaganda war against Israel is the “Remember these Children” website which compares the numbers of Arab children who have been killed in the conflicts to the number of Jewish children murdered by terrorists. The Arab list totals 1,437 since 2000 and the Jewish list totals 130. Not withstanding that such reporting is unsubstantiated, After visiting the site, I noticed that according to this report, most of the Israeli children were murdered in drive by shootings and human bombs exploding themselves in restaurants, buses and markets. In other words, the Arab terrorists targeted those children and murdered them in cold blood. For all of the Arab children, on the other hand, the site identifies the causes of death as gun shot wounds or explosions during the firefights with Arab Hamas fighters. What were their children doing in the middle of a war zone? That is clear and convincing evidence that the Hamas thugs where using the local children as human shields. Soldiers are trained to return fire when fired upon. The bushwhacking urban guerrillas who fire at enemy troops from a neighborhood full of children are the ones causing the deaths of those children. More at http:moshesharon.worpress.com

    • muchiboy

      "That is clear and convincing evidence that the Hamas thugs where using the local children as human shields. Soldiers are trained to return fire when fired upon."
      No it isn't.And it wouldn't necessarily be so in a courtroom,either.No doubt it has happened,and even the IDF have been accused of these reprehensible acts against Palestinian children.After years of such conflict even trained Israeli soldiers can kill Palestinian children throwing rocks.In that,they are no different from other soldiers,and I suspect less likely from soldiers who are fathers. muchiboy

      • MixMChess

        "No it isn't.And it wouldn't necessarily be so in a courtroom,either."

        Huh? It is well documented that the "brave" Hamas terrorists use children as human shields:
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWQQFJXMrg4

        Another brave Hamas fighter hiding behind a child: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J08GqXMr3YE

        Hamas using a civilian building to fire a "grad" rocket at Israel: http://blog.camera.org/archives/2009/01/news_stat

        In fact, Palestinians even admit that Hamas uses civilian areas as human shields. In the NY Times it was reported that "Shireen Shihab, 30, a resident of Gaza City," said that she had "seen Hamas fighters firing rockets toward Israel from a site two blocks away from her home. She said she and others could not express any opposition for fear of being labeled spies."
        http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/world/middleeas

      • MixMChess

        "No doubt it has happened,and even the IDF have been accused of these reprehensible acts against Palestinian children."

        The IDF has never used children (especially Palestinian children) as human shields, only Hamas engages in such horrendous acts.

        "After years of such conflict even trained Israeli soldiers can kill Palestinian children throwing rocks."

        They can, but they don't. Israelis don't murder children, that is the job of the Palestinians.

      • aspacia

        A stone can kill-Goliath was killed by David's stone. Frankly, Israel has the right to expel every Muslim from their land because they were victorious against the attackers.

  • muchiboy

    "Now are you ready to reexamine the disgusting morals of your beloved Palestinians?"
    Why not,I've examined the questionable morals of the Israelis,and found them wanting.The reference is Israeli,but I've no reason to doubt the report.Still,I want to check other sites I know and trust before commenting.I have heard of such celebrations after 911 and have my own ideas on the motives.Regardless,the "disgusting morals" of the Palestinians do not excuse the equally disgusting morals of the Israelis.Almost made for one another. muchiboy

    • MixMChess

      "I've examined the questionable morals of the Israelis,and found them wanting."

      Israel exemplifies every progressive and liberal ideal you hold dear, yet you find their morals wanting? You are either a fool, a liar or a hypocrite (or likely, all three).

      "Still,I want to check other sites I know and trust before commenting."

      Of course, if this was a Palestinian source you would treat it as gospel. Israel has a free and open press (the only one on the middle east), whereas Hamas and the Palestinian Authority manipulate and control all aspects of the "press" in the territories. To cast doubt on the veracity of Israeli newspaper report when compared with the controlled media of the Palestinians is absurd. The double-standard you openly apply is mind-boggling.

      "Regardless,the "disgusting morals" of the Palestinians do not excuse the equally disgusting morals of the Israelis."

      What? The Israelis provide humanitarian and economic aid and have repeatedly emphasized that they want a just and last peace with their Palestinian neighbors. The Palestinians are openly antisemitic, xenophobic and seek the destruction of Israel and to exterminate worldwide Jewry. This is a fact repeatedly emphasized by Hamas and the P.A.. The Palestinians and the Arabs are the antithesis of progressive values and liberalism. Their moral standings are incomparable.

      Perhaps the problem is that your moral standing is corrupt? Perhaps you gleefully cheer on despots, autocrats and theocracies that seek the destruction of innocent life? Perhaps you enjoy seeing Jews murdered? Perhaps deep down you find a kindred connection with the oppressive and illiberal Palestinians? Either that or you are a complete fool. So which is it?

    • aspacia

      Frankly, we should give Israel several neutron bombs to destroy the Muslim Vatican, and reap the black gold.

      muchless, you have no morals. At least I am honest regarding my views regarding Islam and its very dangerous agenda and believe it must be destroyed for the West to survive. The Muslims destroyed by neutron bombs want you and me dead and they make no excuses for it. Consequently, I will not make any excuse regarding the fact I want most of the intolerant MIddle-East erradicated.