Dick Morris and the Annie Taylor Awards


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The following talk by Dick Morris was delivered at David Horowitz’s Restoration Weekend in West Palm Beach, Florida (Nov. 17-20, 2011). Introductory remarks were given by the Freedom Center’s Michael Finch, comedian Tom Dreesen and political analyst Monica Crowley. Mr. Morris’s lecture is followed by the Center’s Annie Taylor awards.

Michael Finch: Thank you so much, everybody, for coming.  As you take your seats, I’m going to be introducing our — which is a real honor — introducing our Master of Ceremonies tonight, Tom Dreesen, who’s here at his first weekend, Restoration Weekend.  It’s a real honor to have a fellow Chicagoan here, Tom.  Although I’m glad I just found out today that you’re a Cub fan — a South Side Cub fan, too, but we won’t get into that.

But ladies and gentlemen, we’re going to show a very short clip.  If we could cue that, and then Tom Dreesen will come up.  Thank you.

(Video played)

Tom Dreesen: Thank you very much.  How about a nice round of applause for Michael Finch for all the hard work that he’s been doing here?

(Applause)

I can’t tell you how good — oh, by the way, there’s one toast you left out, Dr. Bob.  Italians say (spoken in Italian), which means a hundred years.  Polish people say (spoken in Polish), which means good luck.  And of course, we say (spoken in foreign language), which means life.  I’ve got a buddy doing (spoken in foreign language) in Joliet Prison back in Illinois.

(Laughter)

It wasn’t funny, but it was something that I thought I had to tell you.  The mic is — oh, you can’t hear.  No wonder it wasn’t funny.

(Laughter)

Okay, well, that concludes my show.  Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for coming.

(Applause)

We’re right on time here, in this magnificent hotel, this multibillion-dollar hotel, with a sound system from Kmart.

(Laughter)

I am honored to be here.

I actually performed here many years ago.  And the first time I came here was probably — I had done two “Tonight Shows.”  And I was booked here at a celebrity golf tournament in West Palm Beach.  And it was one of those where they had a pro, a celebrity and three amateurs.

And this is the truth.  I went to the first tee, and I was really excited.  And the guy who runs this hotel now, David Burke, was in the group, and I didn’t know who he was.  And Arnold Palmer was in our group that day.  And we got up on the first tee.  And he said — hi, I’m David Burke.  I said — hi, David, I’m Tom Dreesen.  He said — nice to meet you, Tom.  Sure hope we get a good celebrity.  Last year, we got some guy I never heard of.

(Laughter)

That was 30 years ago.  If you’ve been in show business, like I have 40 years, and you still need a nametag, chances are you haven’t made it, you know what I’m saying?

(Laughter)

But to be here for David Horowitz — David asked me to do this, and I’m happy to do it.  I’m going to tell you a story about David that would embarrass him.  I know he doesn’t want me to tell this story.  But we were up on Sunset Boulevard awhile back at some function in Los Angeles.  And David and I were out on the street, and a raggedy old bum walked by with holes in his shoes.  In fact, one of his shoes — the sole was flapping.  And David said — excuse me, Tom.  He reached in his pocket, pulled out a wad of $100 bills this thick, with a big rubber band around it.  And he took the rubber band off, and he gave it to the guy and said — put this on your shoe, it’ll stop it from flapping.

(Laughter)

Is this a good man?

Did you enjoy Ann Counter this afternoon?

(Applause)

She was interesting, saying that she got searched at the airport by this good-looking, sleek young man, so she got in line twice.  I thought that was a good line.  Because in Los Angeles, I got — this happens to me all the time.  I think they should change TSA to touching sensitive areas.  Do you agree with me on that?

(Laughter)

Because, you know, I have a choice.  You know.  When they’re going to pat you down, either I risk radiation, or find out at this stage of my life that I get aroused when a man touches me there also, you know.

(Laughter)

I think if they’re going to pat you down, you should be able to pick your patter.

(Laughter)

Really.  Line them up, you know.  The big one on the end, yeah, with the –

(Laughter)

– with the hard look in your eyes and the soft hands.  Yeah, that’s the one, I’ll take him.  You know — you want to make them stop searching you?  Don’t get mad, get into it.

(Laughter)

Start moaning.

(Laughter)

Oh, oh.  Yeah, right there, right there, yeah, yeah.

(Laughter)

But this is a very interesting day.  In California, by the way, on this date in 1850, California became a state.  At that time, the state had no money.  Almost everyone in the state spoke Spanish, and there were gunfights in the streets.  So you see, nothing has changed in California.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Fact, Jerry Brown was governor at that time, also.

(Laughter)

I’m from the great state of Illinois, where we limit our governors to two terms — one in office, and one in prison.  That’s just the way we do it in Illinois.  Those are facts you have to recognize.  That’s a problem with the world today — there’s lack of recognition.  Muslims do not recognize the Jews as the chosen people, Jews do not recognize Jesus as the Messiah, Protestants do not recognize the Pope as the leader of the Christian world, Baptists do not recognize each other at Hooters.

(Laughter)

And Colonel Khadafi is dead.  I never thought — I never thought — I could never figure how anybody could be afraid of this man, Colonel Khadafi.  Here’s a guy who owns his own country — he only made himself a colonel.

(Laughter)

Come on, we got guys in this country who kill chickens, we make them colonels.

(Laughter)

Several years ago, he came up with one of those brilliant statements. His nation was trying to build a hand grenade — develop a hand grenade that could blow up everything within a two-mile radius.  He searched for two years for some guy who could throw it and run three miles in five seconds, you know.

(Laughter)

But he was a tyrant.  He was a tyrant.  And Michael, thank you, you’re right — I was raised in the South Side of Chicago.

And this thing about bullies — we’re very much aware of bullies on the South Side of Chicago.  I know to some people it’s not a laughing matter, and it’s not.  There were bullies in my neighborhood.  There was a gang — they only traveled in threes and fours.  And you looked at them cross-eyed, they’d beat the tar out of you.  They wore black and white.  We called them nuns.  Anyhow –

(Laughter)

There really was a bully in my neighborhood.  A good buddy of mine, Richard Brown, is in the audience.  We went to school together.  And he’ll tell you this.  If you remember O’Hearn, you remember David O’Hearn?  Remember O’Hearn, how mean he was, Richard?  O’Hearn — in fact, he used to push me around all the time.  I was a little skinny kid.  And I told my dad one time — I said, you know, this guy O’Hearn just keeps pushing me around.  And he said — he’s nothing but a bully.  That’s all he is, you tell him that.  So the next day, I told him, I said — my dad said you’re a bully.  So he went over to my house and beat the hell out of my dad.

(Laughter)

I went to an all-white Catholic school that was in an all-black neighborhood, called Our Lady of the Courageous Caucasians.

(Laughter)

I played football in the Catholic Youth League.  I didn’t get in a lot of games, because I was kind of small.  What I did one time — I had 10 of my buddies come to the game and chant — we want Dreesen, we want Dreesen.  Second quarter, the coach called me over.  I said — yeah, coach, what do you want me to do?  He said — I want you to go in the stands with your friends, because they want you more than I do.

(Laughter)

My mom wanted me to grow up and become a priest, which I think is a tough occupation.  Can you imagine giving up your sex life, and then once a week people come in and tell you the highlights of theirs?

(Laughter)

I was working in the Laugh Factory in Los Angeles the other day, trying out some new material.  Then the young comedians were talking about me, and I overheard them.  One of them said — you know, he’s old school.  And the other comedian said — what do you mean, he’s old school?  He said — well, he doesn’t use the F-word.  And the other comedian said — my God, what does he use for adjectives?

(Laughter)

And I said — adjectives.

Before I go, there’s a couple stories I want to tell you.  One is, Manny Klausner is here, a fellow Chicagoan.  Grew up on 59th and Stony.  Where you at, Manny? I know you’re out here.  Well, maybe you’re not, Manny.  Oh, you’re over — okay.  Anyhow, Manny Klausner is — I’m sorry, Manny, over here, okay — 59th and Stony — a lawyer.  A lot of people do not realize what a brilliant lawyer he is.

And I know I would embarrass him with this story.  But he once was handling a case in Chicago of a man who allegedly killed his wife.  And they had no corpse, but they had a lot of circumstantial evidence.  But no corpse.  And Manny stood up in front of the jury in the summation and said — ladies and gentlemen of the jury, watch that door.  In 60 seconds, the alleged deceased will come in that door.  And the jury watched.  And of course at 60 seconds, she didn’t.  And he said — she didn’t walk through that door, but you all looked.  And therefore, you need to find my client innocent because of reasonable doubt.  And the jury deliberated and, three minutes later, came back and found his client guilty.

(Laughter)

And he said to the jury foreman later — wait a minute, you were all looking at the door.  And the jury foreman said — yeah, but your client wasn’t.

(Laughter)

Brilliant man.

In Chicago, there’s this Chicago policeman that retired recently.  Played the bagpipes at all the functions in Chicago.  And he retired to Kentucky.  And the local funeral director got a hold of him a couple weeks later and said — I understand you play the bagpipes.  We have a homeless man, a poor guy who we found, and no one knows who he is.  And we’re going to have services for him.  Would you mind playing your bagpipes at the gravesite?  And the guy said — no, of course, I’ll be there.

And the funeral director gave him the directions, and he got lost in the backwoods of Kentucky and showed up about an hour late.  Now, the hearse is gone, and the funeral director’s gone.  And the diggers and the crew were all sitting around having lunch.  And he got his bagpipes out, and he went out, and he stood over, and he looked down, saw the vault was locked.  And he started to play “Amazing Grace.”  And he played it with such passion and such fervor — thinking that no one was at this man’s gravesite upon his death — that he actually started to weep.

And the diggers, seeing this, they got up, and they looked down, and they started to weep.  And finally, when he finished this incredible rendition of “Amazing Grace,” he turned to walk to his car.  And one of the diggers said — sweet mother of Jesus, I’ve never seen anything like this in my life, and I’ve been putting in septic tanks for over 20 years.

(Laughter)

I don’t want to stay up here and bore you with a lot of wonderful material, because we have a great show going.  It’s my privilege and my honor to introduce a lovely lady that — the first time I saw her on TV, I thought she was the most beautiful woman I’ve ever seen in my life.  But then I realized she was sitting next to Alan Colmes.

(Laughter)

And then I thought she was the most intelligent woman I’ve ever seen in my life.  But she had followed Alan Colmes, so, you know.  Anyhow, she’s been a guest on major TV and cable news channels, including ABC, NBC, Fox and HBO; and worked as a commentator on National Public Radio’s “Morning Edition” for four years.

When the Fox News Channel launched in 1996, Monica Crowley joined the network as a political and international affairs analyst.  Her insight and intelligent analysis on the day’s news earned Crowley a large following of fans.  And in 2002, Monica began hosting “The Monica Crowley Show” on WABC Radio in New York.  In 2005, Monica joined MSNBC as a political analyst and co-host of “Connected: Coast to Coast.”  In March 2006, Monica signed a deal with the Westwood One Radio Network to take her show national.  “The Monica Crowley Show” now airs on major market stations across the country, including WABC AM New York, WTTK FM Boston, and WTNT AM Washington, DC.

Monica holds two master’s degrees and a PhD in international affairs from Columbia University and worked as a foreign policy assistant to former President Richard Nixon from 1990 until his death in 1994.  Crowley’s experience with Nixon prompted her to write two bestselling books — “Nixon Off the Record: His Candid Commentary on People and Politics” and “Nixon in Winter.”

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s my pleasure to introduce to you Monica Crowley.

(Applause)

But Monica, before Dick Morris leaves, make sure he signs this.  He didn’t sign this for me, just –

Monica Crowley: Oh, for you?

Tom Dreesen: For me.

Monica Crowley: Oh, okay, I’m on it.  I’m on it.

Thank you very much, Tom.  That was so cool to be introduced by Tom Dreesen.

(Applause)

Fantastic.  Thank you so much.  And I also want to give great thanks to David Horowitz and everybody here at the Freedom Center for putting on this absolutely fantastic weekend for all of us.  Big hand.

(Applause)

I should also say that I am so happy to be in a room of likeminded people — a lot of familiar faces, very friendly faces in this room.  And given the fact that I spend so much of my time debating liberal maniacs, like my brother-in-law and others, you have no idea how nice it is for me to be here today.

Just a quick question — does anybody know what today is?  No?  Well, it is Friday.  But as of today, there are now just 353 days until the 2012 Presidential Election.  That is five Kim Kardashian marriages.

(Laughter)

That’s right.  We only have five Kim Kardashian marriages until we elect a new President.  If only Barack Obama had been President for just 72 days.

I am here to introduce somebody.  And I’m so thrilled to do this.  This is somebody who’s working tirelessly to make sure that Barack Obama doesn’t get another term, or another 20 Kim Kardashian marriages.  I have to say, though, as much as I adore and respect my good friend, Dick Morris, he was responsible for inflicting two hideous injustices on the American people.

The first one — and I’m not sure if you know this, but when Dick was just a kid, at Stuyvesant High School in New York City, he was already a budding boy genius political strategist.  And he put his talents to work managing the campaign of a classmate who was running for class president.  Dick’s talents were so extraordinary, even at such a young, tender age, that the classmate whose campaign he was managing actually won his race and became class president.  That kid’s name was Jerrold Nadler.

Nadler, of course, went on to win a congressional seat and become one of the most obnoxiously far-left members of the House.  So thanks, Dick.

(Laughter)

Now, the second gross injustice Dick Morris has inflicted on us was, of course, also his greatest triumph as a political strategist, which was electing a President of the United States.  It’s just too bad that that President was Bill Clinton, our 42nd President and national treasure.  So again we say — thanks, Dick.

(Laughter)

Ultimately, however, I’m happy to say that Dick left the dark side of leftist policies and the politicians who love them, and he came to the light.  And he put his prodigious talents to work for the good guys.  And those of us who fight in the trenches every day in the conservative movement are lucky to have him with us, fighting with us, every day, every moment, side-by-side.  Because there’s nobody more tireless in the fight to arrest this country’s slide into socialism and kleptocracy than Dick Morris.

He is a political strategist extraordinaire.  He is a brilliant strategic thinker.  He is a prolific and bestselling author.  He is a keen analyst.  He’s somebody who’s kind enough to change his schedule to join us here tonight.  He’s the purveyor of DickMorris.com.  I knew I had to get that in, Dick.

(Laughter)

And perhaps, perhaps, he is the only person to have ever been tackled to the ground and threatened with a punch to the face by Bill Clinton.  Please welcome my good friend, Dick Morris.

(Applause)

Dick Morris: Well, before we get started, I have some serious business to discuss with you.  My wife and I have written a book –

(Laughter)

– which is really the last statement in political theory.  It goes into all of the reasons why Obama — no, that was the other book.  This one is about my dog.  And it’s called “Dubs Goes to Washington: And Discovers the Greatness of America.”  Dubs is my magnificent 90-pound Golden Retriever, who spends his entire life with a tennis ball in his mouth.

So he goes to Washington, and he goes on the train.  And then the ball falls out of his mouth.  It was a total disaster.  It rolled faster and faster.  It rolled faster and faster, it didn’t slow down.  And poor Dubs had to look for it all over town.

So he goes to the Lincoln Memorial.  And at the Memorial for Abraham Lincoln, Dubs sat up and started thinkin’ — if man from chains is meant to be free, get this silly leash off of me!

(Laughter)

(Applause)

And at the Jefferson Memorial — all men are created equal, Jefferson wrote, in the Declaration of Independence’s most famous quote.  If people are equal, can it possibly be that dogs are, too?  Especially me?

So all we could find in bookstores was “Heather Has Two Mommies.”  And we felt that it was kind of important to bring a patriotic, pro-American message to kids from four to eight years old.

(Applause)

So it’s not in bookstores, but it’s self-published.  And it’s at DickMorris.com and Amazon.com.  And I hope you get it for your children, grandchildren — I don’t have to say great-grandchildren here, do I?  Good.  Well, thank you.

On a more serious note — in 1945, Churchill was defeated as prime minister of Britain.  And he was replaced by Clement Attlee, who was the Labour Party candidate, the Socialist Party.  And when Attlee took over, he nationalized every sector of the British economy.

So this is a true story.  Churchill was in the men’s room at the House of Commons, standing at a urinal, when Attlee walked in the door.  And Churchill scooted down three urinals and brought his jacket over like that.  And Attlee said — shy, Winston?  And Churchill said no.  No, ’tis not that at all.  No, it is just that whenever you see anything that is big and impressive, you nationalize it.

(Laughter)

It was so cool that I learned that story right about the time Obama won.

I think that — why don’t we talk a little bit about the economy — why we’re in the trouble we’re in, what the future is likely to hold, what the political future is likely to be.  Let me look four or five — two or three years down the road and give you my sense of what’s going on, and we’ll talk a bit about the Republican candidates, and then be happy to answer any questions that you have.

We have to understand, to understand this economic mess, that we are not in a business cycle.  This is not an alternation of boom-and-bust, such as has happened as long as capitalism has existed.  That started in June of 2007 and ended in June of 2009.  That boom-and-bust cycle ended.

But what happened was that the massive amount of borrowing that went on in the United States and in every country in the world triggered a recession of a graver and deeper and longer-lasting sort, called a debt implosion cycle.

What happens in capitalism is, over 30 or 40 or 50 years, debt piles up to a point where it gets so high and so exceeds the resources of the planet to sustain it, that everybody suddenly stops borrowing, stops lending, stops investing, stops spending; and the economy drops dead.  It happened in the 1830s, it happened in 1907, it happened in the 1930s, and it’s happening now.  And that cycle is one that does not take a year or two to recover from, like the recessions do.  This cycle typically takes an entire decade to recover from.

Now, with all due respect to Monica’s gratitude, my old boss balanced the budget.  And under my old boss, when he left office, the United States owed $7 trillion of debt, which was pretty manageable.  Our GDP was about $10 trillion.

Then Bush took over.  And with Katrina, and Homeland Security after 9/11, and Iran — I’m sorry, Iraq and Afghanistan, he borrowed a total of about 3 trillion more and raised debt up to $10 trillion.

Then Obama took over and went stark-raving mad.  He borrowed — by the time his first term, and his only term, is over –

(Applause)

– he will have borrowed 7 trillion more.  So from the time George Washington took the oath of office until Obama did, we borrowed 10 trillion.  And then, in the four years of the Obama presidency, we will have borrowed 7 trillion more.

Now, put that into perspective.  The world as a whole has a GDP of about $60 trillion.  And total indebtedness in the world is about 160 trillion.  About 40 trillion owed by government — state, local, international, federal — and about 120 trillion of all debt combined — personal debt, corporate debt, mortgage debt, student loans, car loans, all over the world — comes to 120 trillion.

Now, when Obama started, the government debt level wasn’t 40 trillion; it was about 26 or 27 trillion — and that extra 14 or 15 trillion, half of which was borrowed by the United States.  And if you count state and local governments, about three quarters of it was borrowed by the United States.  So stretched the global capital capability to a breaking point that there was no more money to lend.  And everybody began to cut back and cut back and cut back.

The United States government, we love to say, is borrowing from China.  The hell it is.  China reduces, is reducing, its net holdings of US government securities.  It’s getting rid of more than it’s taking in each year now.  You know who we’re borrowing it from?  Ourselves.  We’re printing the money.  That’s how we’re borrowing it.

We take the Monica Crowley National Bank, and I’m the Federal Reserve Board.  And I come over, and I say — hey, Monica, do you have any mortgage-backed securities kicking around in your vault?  And Monica says — do I have mortgage-backed securities?  I’m drowning in them.  I’m using them for wallpaper.  I might use them for some other kind of paper in my bathroom.  They’re worthless.  None of them are paying anything back.  The debt is worth more than the homes are.  It’s underwater.  I can’t do anything with it.  I can’t sell them, for Godsakes.  Can’t really even give them away.  And I say — well, Monica, I’d like to buy 100 million bucks of them.  And she says — are you out of your mind?  How many pennies on the dollar?  And I say — oh, 100 cents, Monica.  Here’s a check for 100 million bucks, give me your securities.  And I walk away with this huge pile of totally worthless paper.  And I give her 100 million bucks.

Now, there’s no money in the account.  But I’m the Federal Reserve Board, that’s fine.  I’ve just created $100 million backed by absolutely nothing, by these phony mortgage-backed securities.  The United States government — when Obama took office, the money supply in the United States was $800 billion.  We now have $800 billion of additional money supply backed by these mortgage-backed securities, backed by absolutely nothing; and another 500 billion backed by Treasury bills.  Two and a half times the growth of money supply under Obama.

So Monica’s got this 100 million.  And I come over to her — I’m her next visitor — and I’m the Treasury Department.  I said — hey, Monica.  I understand you came into some money.  And she said — yeah, this moron just sold me — just bought 100 million bucks of my worthless paper.  I say — Monica, what are you planning to do with that money?  And she says — oh, well, I’m going to do what Obama wants me to do.  I’m going to make loans and stimulate job creation, and get our economy moving, and jumpstart it all.  Those guys there want to put together a shopping center.  And over there, they want to expand their manufacturing facility.  And they have a new real estate development.  And those folks need mortgage loans and car loans, and I’m going to supply them.  And I say — well, that’s great, Monica.  That’s just what the President wants.  That’s why we gave you the 100 million.

Are you sure they are all going to pay it back?  Every single penny, on time?  The reason I ask, Monica, is — under the new Dodd-Frank bill, I have to close you down if they don’t.  I have to find that you’re an imprudent lender.  And I fire you, I fire your board of directors, I liquidate your shareholders’ equity, which includes your pension; and I forcibly merge your bank into a larger one.

But please, make these loans.  Get those two young kids in a garage, with the next Dell computer or the next bright gleam in their eyes — fund them, take risks, be entrepreneurial.  Just make sure it is all paid back.

So Monica says — well, maybe I’m not going to lend it all out.  I know these people, but I mean, it’s a bad economy.  But what the hell am I going to do with 100 million bucks?  Say — Monica, I’m so glad you asked me that question.  I’m a little short this quarter, and I got to borrow $165 billion a month to pay for my budget deficit.  I’d like you to lend me the 100 million that I gave you back to me.  And she says — well, that’s all right.  But what interest are you going to give me?  And I say — three and a half percent.  Says — three and a half percent?  This moron gave me this money for free.  If I show a spread of three and a half percent, I’ll serve champagne at the next board of directors meeting.  They’ll canonize me.

So, what we have done is we have printed 100 million bucks of money, backed by nothing, and we borrow it back and pay three and a half percent interest for the privilege.  That is how the United States of America is funding its debt.

Why doesn’t Greece do that?  Because Greece doesn’t own a printing press.

(Laughter)

The Germans own the printing press.  And in any case, the euro is not the currency of the globe; the dollar is.  There is only one country in the world that can do that, and that’s the United States.  We can print whatever the hell we like.  And as long as everybody assumes that it’s good and it’s worth — and it’s valuable, and they accept it for 100 cents of goods and services, it’s fine.  But if inflation starts, or starts going crazy, there is nothing behind that money.  Nothing, except these ridiculous mortgage securities.

So in that situation, who is going to invest?  Who is going to lend?  Who is going to spend?  The whole world is terrified, locked in terror.  Households in the United States aren’t spending.  They’ve taken all that stimulus money and reduced the household debt by half a trillion dollars since Obama took office.  That’s money that they didn’t spend.  They didn’t buy a car or flat-screen TV; they just paid down their credit cards, their mortgages, their student loans, their credit card balances.

Corporations in the United States, when Obama took office, were holding $1.3 trillion of cash — a relatively high amount, but still normal.  Now they’re holding $2 trillion of cash, which they won’t invest in their own companies.  And back when they had $1.3 trillion — okay, they’re investing it at 5 and 6 percent interest.  Now it’s 0 percent interest.  So they would rather have that money sit there burning a hole in their checking account, making absolutely no money, than investing it in anything.  And banks are sitting on $1 trillion of cash that they won’t lend out.  So the banks aren’t lending, the consumers aren’t spending, and businesses aren’t investing.

And you know what the Washington solution is?  Print more money, spend more money, in the hopes that people change their mind.  It’s like you have a 20-year-old dog who’s half dead, and all he wants to do is sleep on the damn floor.  And the Fed is playing out more leash for him.  That’s our economic solution.  And that’s literally what’s going on in this country.

Now, the problem in America is that the Obama Administration puts social engineering ahead of economic recovery.  See, FDR didn’t do that.  When he took office in ’33, he focused on recovery — get the banks back, restore industry, raise wages, raise prices, halt the deflationary cycle.  And that was his goal.  It wasn’t until ’36 that he began to monkey around with the system, and do Social Security and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Wagner Act, and all of those reforms.

But Obama didn’t wait.  He jumped right in with his program of change.  And the result was he paralyzed the entire American economy.

So rich people aren’t spending money.  Because they’re scared to death of tax increases coming down the pike, which he threatens us with every day.  Sometimes I feel like a hog at the Chicago stockyards, you know — have more food, come on, manja, manja.  You didn’t have enough lunch, here, here’s some more food.  We have plans for you.

And consumer spending — the top 2 percent of the country spends 33 percent of the money.  So you’re threatening them with taxes?  You’re going to dry up their spending.

The healthcare industry — 17 percent of our economy.  Now Obamacare is an Obama-nation, absolutely.  But if he’d implemented it and at least had it take effect immediately, you could adjust to that.  Instead, what he’s done is he’s said — I’m going to change everything, and I’ll let you know the regulations in 2013.  So who on earth is going to expand their medical facilities?  Medicine should be countercyclical.  People are still getting sick, right?  And it doesn’t matter if they have any income, because they’re all covered by insurance or paid for by the government, or subsidized by free medical care at the hospital.  So why shouldn’t healthcare be expanding?  It’s countercyclical.  Because they’re scared to death.

They used to create 30,000 jobs a month.  Last month, they lost 30,000 jobs.  Because who is going to set up an MRI clinic, a colonoscopy clinic; and buy the equipment and hire 12 people, when you don’t know if next year the reimbursement’s going to be totally disallowed?  That’s 17 percent of the economy paralyzed.

Manufacturing is in the same boat.  They don’t know what kind of carbon dioxide emission regulations he’s going to impose through EPA.  And American manufacturing has survived because of its tremendous productivity, which is a nice word for replacing men with machines.  And we produce twice as many products as we did 15 years ago with half the labor force.  We still produce 25 percent of the world’s manufactured products.  We’re still number one in the world in that.  But it’s with half as many workers.

Now Obama says — I’m going to tax the energy.  I’m going to limit it, I’m going to regulate it.  So you can’t automate anymore.  So they’re terrified, they’re not going to expand.

The National Labor Relations Board is imposing unionization throughout the country.  That paralyzes business because of fear.  And then the banks aren’t lending for the stuff we just talked about, where Monica can’t give out those loans without the threat of being closed down.  So these regulations have caused a reign of terror in our economy.

Now, when we elect a Republican President, and when we elect a Republican Senate –

(Applause)

– we are going to cut those Lilliputian cords that are holding Gulliver down.  We’re going to cut the threat of higher taxes, we’re going to cut the redoing of the medical system, we’re going to cut the threat of EPA regulation, we’re going to cut the threat of forced unionization, we’re going to roll back regulation of small community banks.  And the result is that we’ll be free.  Gulliver can rise up again.  This huge, strong American economy can really get back up and begin to function.  And once that starts, it’s going to have absolutely no end.  It’s just going to go completely crazy with economic growth.

The problem is it will go completely crazy.  Because there is so much damn money out there.  And it’s as if Barack Obama took every car in the United States and filled it up all the way to full in the gas tank.  But nobody went driving because it’s lousy weather out.  So they park their cars in the parking garage.  And they’re waiting for better weather.

And when the Republicans come in, and we undo all of Obama’s regulations, and we get the economy moving again, everybody’s going to bring their car out at once, and they’re all going to drive.  And you know what that is, in LA — a traffic jam.  And that means inflation.  Way too much money chasing way too few goods.  And I believe that we’re going to rekindle economic growth, but then I think we’re going to be hit with mega-inflation as 2013 and 2014 come.

And the only remedy for that inflation will be a new recession.  That’s what Volcker had to do in 1982.  The only way to stop this is to take the steam out of it.  And I think by ’15 or ’16, we will have finally recovered from the catastrophe that this President has inflicted upon this nation and this world.

(Applause)

It’s literally going to take that long.  So in our book “Outrage,” we predicted the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  In our book “Fleeced,” we predicted the stock market crash.  In our book “Catastrophe,” we predicted that the Obama stimulus package would fail.  In our book “2010,” we predicted 60 to 80 seats winning the house.  So don’t believe my prediction that Obama’s going to lose, but he’s going to lose.

(Applause)

And here’s why.  He was elected not because he changed anybody’s mind, but because he changed the turnout model, which is an almost impossible thing to do in American politics.  Never happens before, since John Kennedy changed it in 1960 by attracting white Catholics to vote.

So Obama raised the black turnout from 11 percent of the vote to 14 and got 98 percent of that vote.  He raised the Latino turnout from 7 to eight and a half and got 65 percent of that vote.  And he doubled the turnout of 18- to 24-year-old whites and increased 18- to 30-year-old turnout by about 30 percent, and carried that by two-to-one.  That’s how he won.

But he’s not going to be able to replicate that now.  He will get a higher black turnout, but not 14 percent; it’ll be 12, 12 and a half.  He’ll still get 98 percent, maybe 90, but not on 14 points.  Latinos don’t like him.  His job approval among Hispanic voters is 44 percent — used to be 88.

And I believe that the ticket in 2012 is like an arranged marriage.  We know who the bride is going to be; we just don’t know the name of the groom.  The bride is going to be Rubio –

(Applause)

– which I think will bring Latinos en masse over to the Republican Party.  And the young people of America are disenchanted.  His approval rating among people under 30 is only 42 percent, where it was 80 percent when he took office.

So I believe that Barack Obama cannot rekindle the kind of turnout that he was elected with.  And, on the other hand, there’ll be a major turnout of middle-aged and older people, largely whites, who reject him.  Because they’ve seen what he’s doing to the United States.

When you look at the polls right now, there is no poll that ever shows Obama over 50 percent of the vote.  Against a generic Republican candidate, he gets 43 percent of the vote.  Against a specific nominee, he gets 47 or 48 percent of the vote.  Once the nominee is chosen by the Republicans, that vote share will drop.  But now, when it’s just a possible candidate, it remains that high.

But when you’re under 50 percent of the vote and you’re an incumbent, it means you’re going to lose.  Are you going to be married to the same person next year?  I’m undecided?

(Laughter)

What does that say about your relationship?  And when you say you’re undecided about reelecting a President, it means you have decided to vote for someone else; you just don’t know who yet.  And when you ask people — do you approve of Obama’s job as President, he gets 41 or 42 percent approval.  Way below what he needs to win.  But when you ask them — do you approve of his handling of the economy, the only issue there is, he gets 34 percent.  Sixty percent disapprove of his handling of the economy.  So that’s where he’s headed.  This guy is headed not just for defeat, but for a walloping defeat.

And we’re also going to very definitely take the Senate.  There are two seats that are basically givens — North Dakota, which is an empty seat that we’ll take, and Nebraska — we’re going to finally defeat Ben Nelson, who was the swing vote on healthcare.  Finally.

(Applause)

We’ve waited a long time for this honor.

Then we’re — Ray Berg in Montana, the Republican, is ahead of Tester, the incumbent senator.  He looks like he’s gone.  There was just a poll out in Florida that has Connie Mack ahead of Bill Nelson –

(Applause)

– by 43 to 39 — an incumbent senator at 39 percent of the vote.  That means he’s going to lose by 20 points.

In Missouri, Sarah Steelman is ahead of Claire McCaskill –

(Applause)

– 45 to 43.  In Wisconsin — I don’t much like him, but Tommy Thompson — and he may be opposed in a primary.  But if he’s the candidate, he’s ahead of the Democratic nominee by 49 to 42.  Right there, I’ve ticked off six seats.  That gives us three extras.  And I believe we’re going to elect Allen in Virginia.  I believe we’re going to win that seat, with Heather Wilson being the new senator from New Mexico.  I think we’re going to defeat Sherrod Brown with Josh Mandel in Ohio.

(Applause)

I think we’re going to beat Debbie Stabenow with Pete Hoekstra in Michigan.  So we’ve got a really good stable of candidates coming out here, and really good chances.

But there’s something else that’s important.  We not only have to win a majority in the Senate — and we will, and we may close in on 60. We may be in the mid-50s. Get a couple of good candidates in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Minnesota and Washington State, we could get 60 seats.  But we’re not only going to do that; we have to get a majority of the majority as conservatives, who are going to be non-RINOs and really vote conservative principles.

(Applause)

So there are three primaries going on that are particularly important.  One is a guy named Richard Mourdock in Indiana is running against Dick Lugar for the Senate in Indiana.  He should win.  Lugar supports the DREAM Act for amnesty, he supported the START Treaty, where we didn’t get anything back for the Russians; he supports earmarks — all kinds of stuff like that.

And then, in the state of Utah, Dan Liljenquist, who is one of the leaders in the national pension reform movement, is, I think, going to defeat Orren Hatch.  And so that we have — and then in North Dakota, a guy named Duane Sand, I think, is going to win that primary against a RINO who he’s opposing, named Rick Berg.

But the point is we have to go to each of these states and make sure the people that win are real serious conservatives.  And that’s a very important mission.

Now to stay tuned for all of this, please go to my website, DickMorris.com –

(Laughter)

– as Monica said, and I’ll e-mail you the information about these races as they evolve.  I’ll be following very, very closely.  And it’s very, very important that we stay on top of it.

Now, you could get dizzy looking at the Republican primary field.  There goes Bachmann — there goes Bachmann.  There goes Perry — there goes Perry.  There goes Cain — there goes Cain.  There goes Newt, and so on.  Up and down, up and down, up and down.  And the question is — are we going to be left with a candidate when all this is over?

But we have to realize that this is a good thing, not a bad thing.  We should be happy that this is happening.  Because our candidates are getting vetted.  And they’re getting all of their negatives thrown at them not in November of 2012 but in November of 2011.  And by the time he’s the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney’s flip-flopping or Herman Cain’s sexual harassment possibilities, or Newt Gingrich’s divorces, or — I don’t think Michele has a scandal — those will all be old hat.  They will all be ancient history.  And nobody’s going to pay any attention to them.

Just think for a minute about Kerry and, for that matter, Edwards.  Never vetted.  Kerry was nominated in about five weeks, because they needed to get somebody to beat Howard Dean.  And it wasn’t until the general election that we learned the Swift Boat was a fraud.  And John Edwards — was he ever vetted?

On the other hand, look at Bill Clinton.  He got hit with Gennifer Flowers in February.  He got hit with the draft scandal in January.  And by the time November came around, nobody remembered any of that.  Look at Barack Obama — he got hit with Reverend Wright in April.  He got hit with Bill Ayers in May.  By the time the general election came around, it was old hat.

On the other hand, look at George W. Bush.  He didn’t get hit with his DWI conviction until the weekend before the election.  And he went from five points ahead to half a point defeat in the popular vote because of that.  Had that come out six months before, wouldn’t have made a damn bit of difference by Election Day.

So get it all out there.  This is inoculation, this is immunization.  This is very important for us to go through.

Now, let me give you my position on the Presidential race, because I have a decided preference.  My head is for Mitt Romney, because I think he has the best chance of winning.  My heart is for Herman Cain.

(Applause)

Because I love 9-9-9.  And my gut is for Newt Gingrich.

(Applause)

And my feet are uncommitted.

(Laughter)

But let’s spend a minute on each of these candidates — start with Mitt Romney.

I believe that he was conning the voters of Massachusetts, not us.  I believe that this Mormon was always pro-life, that he pretended to be pro-choice to get elected in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts. And I think that when he decided to leave there in 2005, he went back to his real opinions on all this stuff.  I even believe that on healthcare reform, he can be counted on to destroy Obamacare.  And it must be destroyed.

(Applause)

By the way, just a digression on that — the disaster is happening.  The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission has just recommended a 16 percent cut in doctors’ fees for specialists over the next three years, followed by a seven-year freeze — after you take 3 percent inflation, that’s a 50 percent pay cut — and for GPs, a 10-year freeze with no cut, but it’s like a one-third pay cut.  Inflation might be more than 3 percent.

So who’s going to become a doctor?  Who’s going to go into medicine?  Who’s going to incur that kind of debt?  They’re not cutting tuitions by 50 percent.  They’re not cutting student loans by 50 percent.  And you know what’ll happen?  Even if there are doctors, they’re not going to take Medicare patients.  They’re not going to accept that ridiculous rate of reimbursement, or Medicaid.

So what’ll happen is, if you’re over 65 and you get cancer, and you want to see an oncologist, you’re going to have to pay for it yourself.  You want to see a cardiologist, you’re going to have to pay for it yourself.  Which means that you’ll be obliged to keep health insurance just as you had when you were 50 years old.  Because Medicare will become like public housing, or the public schools in inner-city areas — destroyed by Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

Now, those cuts don’t take effect until ’13.  So we’ve got to get rid of him in ’12.

(Applause)

Herman Cain — when Ronald Reagan ran for President, his platform was 10-10-10.  He said our economy is in such terrible shape, for so long, that we have got to cut the top bracket on income taxes by 10 percent a year for each of the three years.  And then, in ’86, he cut them again.  And it fell from 70 percent to 28 percent.  Now it’s back up to 35, but Reagan cut it in half.  And that triggered 20 years of tremendous economic growth and five or six years more of tepid economic growth.  Pretty damn incredible.

So when Herman Cain says — I’m going to lower the top bracket to 9 percent, which is by far the lowest in the industrialized world, the United States will become a magnet for entrepreneurs, inventors, risk-takers, business builders, job creators throughout the world.  Poland is the only country in the industrialized world that did not ever go into a recession this year, this past cycle.  Because they had an 18 percent tax rate, half of the other countries in Western Europe — or in Europe.  If we’re 9 percent, that is going to be incredible.

And what you really have to understand about his consumption tax is that we have a VAT in the United States.  We call it the payroll tax.  Okay?  The employer has to pay 6.2 percent for Social Security, 1.5 percent Medicare.  So it’s a 7.6 percent VAT tax.  The farmer has to pay it on his employees.  The trucker who takes the wheat to the bakery has to pay it on his truck drivers.  The bakery has to pay it on its employees.  The distributor has to pay it on his employees.  This retail has to pay it on its employees, added at each step in the process.  He eliminates all of that.  And he charges an honest, open, upfront 9 percent tax.

Businesses are not going to be able to make you eat that tax.  They’re going to have to eat it themselves, taking it out of the money they’re saving on payroll taxes and on corporate income taxes that get cut to 9 percent.  Because the economy, in a recession, will be so competitive that nobody can get away with a 9 percent price increase.  And therefore, what he’s doing is forcing business to eat that tax by taking away the other taxes, and then having a low top bracket on the income tax and the corporate income tax.  An amazing transformation, a brilliant idea.  A Reagan level of an idea.

And Herman Cain is the one to push it.  And boy, I don’t see any kind of charisma coming anywhere close to Herman Cain’s charisma.

(Applause)

And then you have Newt.  I mean, how many debates do you have to go through till you get it that he is the smartest, the most experienced, the most knowledgeable, the most able, the best probable President?  And I’d pay admission to watch him flay Barack Obama in a debate.

(Applause)

Absolutely pay admission for that.

Now, you know, he’s had a tough personal life, and he also committed the grave sin of earning a living after he left Congress, for which he’s now being flayed.  But Newt is there to stay.  And I think Cain is going to come back, and I think Romney’s there.  And I think it’s going to be a tight, vigorous, three-way fight.  And I think we’ll win with whichever candidate is selected.

And don’t count Michele Bachmann out.  Because that Deficit Reduction Commission is going to recommend $600 billion of additional taxes, supported by the Republican members of the Commission.  And Michele Bachmann is going to raise hell about that.  And just as she developed traction when Boehner gave away the store on the continuing resolution to Obama, she’s going to get traction on that issue with her Tea Party following.  So it might be a four-way race.

And I just think that we are blessed to be endowed with that caliber of candidate.  I think any way it goes, I think it’s going to be a great candidate, and I think we’re going to win.

So, that is the world according to Garp.

(Laughter)

And I’ll be happy to answer questions.

Let me just tell you one other thing.  Every day now, I publish a video.  It’s called the Lunch Alert.  How many of you watch it?  Okay.  Rest of you need to.

Michael Finch: — have time for two questions.

Dick Morris: Okay, but I get my pitch in first.

The Lunch Alert is a daily video that I do, without O’Reilly interrupting me.

(Laughter)

And I talk about many of the topics I just spoke about.  So it comes out at 11 a.m. every morning, Eastern Time.  Go to my website or subscribe, and it’ll be e-mailed to you.  And I think you’ll love it.

The other thing is that whenever there are debates, I tweet during the debate on my site.  I post like 200 comments as the debate’s unfolding.  I also did it when Obama spoke to the country.  And when he ended his speech with a peroration, saying — the problems we have are made by man — and he was about to say — and they can be solved by man, I yelled at the TV set and tweeted — yeah, you da’ man.

(Laughter)

Okay.  Questions?

Unidentified Audience Member: We know that Barack Obama is not going to stand still for the next year.  So all your predictions of a Republican victory across the board — what can he do to counter that?

Dick Morris: Well, there were two theories to getting an incumbent Democratic President reelected — my theory, which got Clinton reelected; and the leftist theory pushed by Carville and Begala, and Stephanopoulos and a few of those folks.  And we had a vigorous, vigorous fight in the Clinton White House over that — a knockdown, drag-out fight, that eventually I won.  And I got control of the policy, and I got us to move to the center.

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  • StephenD

    Chez is right again. I like Dick Morris but his predictions, well, just look what happened with Cain, and he has Cain in the top tier. I also agree it isn't going to be a cake walk into office for the conservatives. Obama is, if nothing else, a thug. He is going to fight to keep the power as will his supporters. It is going to get very ugly. I hope when he attempts to "personalize" it (following Alinsky tactics) he will be refuted with his record or lack thereof rather than responded to in kind.
    Presently, we're beginning to see the Republican candidates bicker and jibe each other. MISTAKE. Each could easily say "I intend to do thus and such as opposed to OBAMA who is doing this and that."
    There is no need to go after each other. Go after Obama; his record; his affiliations; his failed policies. Point out what Morris did here with money sitting and waiting, afraid to come out of hiding because of Obama. TELL THE TRUTH! Then…we may have a chance at redemption in America.

  • joy52

    I enjoy hearing Dick Morris, but there is a little part of me hidden away deep that remembers he worked for Bill Clinton. I listened critically when Hillary was running against Obama, wondering if Dick was a secret plant for Hillary. I don't see him as in Obama's corner, but who has loyalty if you have no loyalty?

  • millenniumopera

    MORRIS IS DANGEROUS BECAUSE HE PERSONALLY IS OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY. HE THINKS EVERYTHING IN POLITICS IS A JOKE WAITING TO BE MADE, BUT WHAT IS GOING ON WITH B HUSSEIN OBAMA IS NO JOKE AND NOT LIKE ANYTHING HE HAS EVERY LIVED THRU. MORRIS IS IN A FANTASY WORLD. GLAD IS TURN REPUBLICAN BUT DANGEROUS THIS MAN MAKES MILLIONS ON FOX AND HERE WHILE HE DREAMS OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY.