What Iran’s Bluster Hides


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Iran’s vulnerabilities are not confined to external military threats.  The Sunni-Muslim minorities rebelling against the oppressive Shiite theocracy have exacted a heavy toll on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The Kurdish rebels in the northwest, the Baluchis in the southeast, and the Ahwazi-Arabs of Khuzestan in the southwest continue to fight the regime, and should the Iranian regime divert its forces from these areas, the attacks on the regime would increase to critical proportions.  In addition to the pressure on the regime from the Sunni minorities who seek to bring it down and achieve either autonomy or independence, escalated war and chaos would encourage a civil uprising against the regime among ethnic Persians.  In the 1980s, Saddam’s attack on Iran fostered general solidarity with the regime.  Today, however, the situation is different in that the Islamic revolution has lost the support of the public in Iran.  Millions marched against Ahmadinejad and the stealing of the last election by his regime.  The young people of Iran despise the regime, and are becoming increasingly anti-religious according to Caspian Makan, an Iranian film director, journalist and dissident. These same people identify with the more liberal and democratic Green Revolution, and are waiting in the wings for the right moment to take action. The Iranian regime is fully cognizant of this.

Tehran has two formidable surrogates whose forces can be used against Israel: Hezbollah and Hamas, but should either of them seriously endanger Israel’s population, Iran is aware that Israel is capable of completely destroying these two entities.  And, both Hamas and Hezbollah have their own interests to protect.  While Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government, a massive attack on Israel would most certainly bring about its destruction. Similarly, Hamas seeks first and foremost its self-preservation.  The Iranian regime is also fully aware of the fact that Israeli retaliation against an Iranian attack would spell the end for the Islamic revolution.

It is for these reasons that Iran is willing to engage in brinkmanship but not in a war with Israel.  Its nuclear efforts are meant to immunize it from a military attack and U.S. and Israeli superiority, and its bluster hides its weakness.  To paraphrase the words of the Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu in his book “The Art of War,” written back in the 4th Century BCE, what matters most in a war is not how many fighters you have or how well equipped they are, but rather what your opponents think you have.  If they think you are weak and vulnerable they will surely attack, but if they consider you strong or unpredictable, they would refrain from attacking you. Iran has well absorbed Sun Tzu’s teachings.

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  • ghh

    YES JOSEPH PUDER, and i bet when the war breaks out, you and your zionist buddies are going to be on the front lines "liberating" thos iranians.

    • Tom

      Suppose the Iranians really do have nuclear? Probably best to leave them alone, and concentrate on stealing the water from Lebanon.

  • salman

    You article is a pile of junk that makes no sense:"Moreover, Iran has 3230 tanks against Iran’s 1793…" wtf?

  • Amused

    Yea I saw those obvious typos , but at the end of the day Israel , if threatened to a cetain degree , will beat Iran's arse to a pulp . And as far as "liberating " Iranians …..if that's what they want , then let'em do it themselves , just like their last revolution .

  • JOSH

    I STILL LIKED THIS ARTICLE AS IT IS MOSTLY TRUE, BUT THE THINGS LEFT OUT WHICH IS JUST AS IMPOTANT IF NOT MORE IS THAT 1. ISRAEL DOES NOT NEED MUCH BOMBING OR MISSILES TO HIT IT TO BE BADLY DISTROYED EVENTHOUGH WITH COMBINED FORCE OF AMERICA, BRITON, FRANCE, ISRAEL AND SOME ARAB COUNTRIES LIKE SAUDIS AND OTHERS THEY CAN EASILY BRING DOWN THE MULAHS IN IRAN FOR EVER, BUT THE PROBLEM WITH WAR IS THAT ONCE IT STARTS YOU NEVER KNOW HOW IT ENDS AS IT HAS MANY UNEXPECTED RESULT THAT MAKES SUPERFICIAL WIN IN TO REAL BAD LOSS…..LOOK AT OUR WARS, VIET NAM, IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, NOW PAKISTAN, YEMEN, SOMALIA, LYBIA….AND LOOK AT THE COST IT HAS HAD ON OUR ECONOMY,,,,,HAS IT WORTH IT?????????

  • robert

    Iran beat Israel fair and square, In Lebanon without support of an air force. Israel threw all its might at last battle including their supposedly the best trained air force in the world. It couldn't even capture an inch of Lebanon. Israel and its army, navy and air force got their nose bloody with a rag tag guys who were trained by Iranians. It is best not to under estimate your enemy. Israeli are used too target practicing with Palestine women and children, when they met real fighters they crapped in their pants, and that's no lie.

    • George Planktont

      HAHAHA!!!
      Israel Didn't want to capture Lebanon (if they were trying to do so, it wouldn't be a near problem for them)… And as far as I know; Nasrallah is still hiding in a bunker ever since… And the funny part is that he claims for a victory… Very funny…
      :))))
      But it is so very typical… 1 Israeli soldier for more than 1000 murderers…. "we win"… as they claim… Funny…
      Do people really believe Iranians and their delegates?

    • UCSPanther

      Maybe you should lay off the propaganda. When Iran's army meets the IDF or the US army on the fields of battle, they will learn the hard way of how weak they truly are.

      They have the same arrogance that Gamal Nasser's UAR alliance had before 1967, and they have the same propaganda-fueled alliance that North Korea's army has right now.

  • Sobh

    The opening paragraph clearly demonstrates which country in the middle east is spending too much per capita on its military, thus being a threat to its neighbors.

  • WilliamJamesWard

    Isn't amazing how much destruction and Islamist incursion Iran has caused in
    the world, how it is under the control of Mullahs who are locked in with the
    Muslim Brotherhood. Governments worldwide are compromised by these
    people and at the right time movement will take place for Islamist supremacy
    in all of Europe and elsewhere. The Arab Spring is housecleaning by the
    Brotherhood to bring all governments into line and prepare for a Muslim World.
    Turkey and Egypt and Russia are on Iran's side, America's traditional allys
    are slipping into Islamist paralysis………..Bluster is not all that there is, there
    is a real threat to World peace with millions upon millions of willing martyrs
    waiting for direction. Destroying a few of the killers has not detered the vast
    majority that are in play under hundreds of names, all fronts for the Muslim
    Brotherhood………………………Will someone stand up and end this insanity?
    William

  • maturin20

    What a relief. We can all stop worrying.

  • UCSPanther

    It appears that Iran's strength is the same as North Korea's: A propaganda-created mirage of strength that they do not have.

    Anyone who claims that the ME is uniting against Israel at this point is delusional. One only needs to look at Syria to see that the days of Gamal Nasser's UAR alliance is long gone.

  • benny

    israel is a civilized country and does not deliver empty threats,but make no mistake if provoked r they are well prepared and the consequences will be terrible for iran as well as others who attack Israel

  • Jeff martin

    Iran surely realizes that it will be an EMP attack that will leave them without power,internet capability or even automobiles. The only injuries will be people stuck in elevators or in aircraft in the EMP zone. If Iran does not get this picture..Israel will draw one for them.