Anatomy of a Revolution

As the chaos in Egypt rages on, even the most ardent pro-democracy spectators are expressing skepticism with regard to the future of the country. Fellow traveler Nicholas Kristof pondered in The New York Times Saturday, “[I]f Egyptian protesters overcome the government, would this be 1979 or 1989?” In other words: are we witnessing the birth pangs of an Iranian-style theocracy or a vibrant free society? “No one can predict with certainty,” Kristof believes. But in fact, there are clear signs of where Egypt is headed, if we only look at the root of the current revolution. This evidence unfortunately shows that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood stands to benefit handsomely from the turmoil. Even in the best case scenario, if the moderate wing assumes the seat of power, we can almost certainly expect the long-standing peace between Egypt and Israel, vital to regional stability, to disintegrate in short order. Perhaps worse.

What exactly do we know about the Egyptian revolution? Broadly speaking, the Egyptian opposition forces, those mobilizing against President Hosni Mubarak, are primarily a coalition of Islamists and socialists, and they have in fact been working together to undermine the Mubarak regime for quite some time. The principal opposition groups behind the uprising are: the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest; Mohamed ElBaradei and the National Association for Change; and the socialist youth movement, the foremost of which is the April 6th Movement.

Serious opposition to the 30-year Mubarak regime began to emerge during the second Palestinian Intifada in Israel’s Gaza Strip. The so-called “cold peace” between Egypt and Israel, which President Mubarak sustained, did not deter Egyptians from demonstrating in solidarity with warring Palestinians, creating a rift between the ostensibly pro-Israel president and the population. This only intensified in the following years with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. Egyptians took to the streets to protest the Iraq war, again putting the people at odds with the American-allied regime.

Between 2003-2005, in pursuit of its “freedom agenda,” the Bush administration began to put pressure on the Mubarak regime to institute democratic reforms, including by allowing multiparty elections. According to a report from the Rand Corporation, what emerged in opposition to Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party was a loose coalition of Egyptian Islamist and socialist groups, who united under the moniker “Kefaya” (“enough” in Arabic). While Kefaya constituencies were diverse, they coalesced around two related objectives: opposition to Israel, and opposition to Mubarak, who had maintained peace with Israel and who was bolstering his own executive authority (through, for instance, authoritarian revisions to the constitution and preparing his son Gamal to inherit the presidency). Kefaya, which eventually developed a strong youth wing, organized for non-NDP candidates in the 2005 election and protested for democratic reforms and against Mubarak and his maneuvers toward hereditary rule.

The results from this democratic movement were far from encouraging. It, in fact, acted as a catalyst for a huge Muslim Brotherhood power-grab. Out of the 444 seats in Egypt’s parliament, 88 seats went to Muslim Brotherhood members (running as independents), hundreds went to the NDP, while less than half the number of seats gained by the Brotherhood went to other reformers (neither Brotherhood nor NDP members). Thus, we have certainly seen in recent times what a more open democratic process looks like in Egypt. A well-organized, popular Islamist faction, working in conjunction with non-Islamist reformers, capably co-opted democratic momentum. It is these same actors — the same coalition — working to overthrow the Mubarak regime in Egypt today. What reason do we have to expect different electoral results?

Even in the best case scenario, one in which moderate reformers achieve perhaps equal gains with the Islamists, most of the anti-Mubarak opposition is nonetheless united with respect to its enmity toward the U.S. and Israel (in addition to its desire for genuine democratic reforms). The includes Kefaya’s socialist youth component. In fact, when Kefaya began to fall apart after the 2005 election, a youth group called Youth for Changed announced that it would withdraw because the coalition was not sufficiently anti-Israel and anti-American.

It was the socialist youth movement of Kefaya that spawned April 6th Movement, which is widely credited with igniting the current Egyptian uprising and is responsible for much of its organization. One of the key figures behind the April 6th Movement is Ahmed Maher, who had previously worked with Kefaya. The April 6th Movement seeks political and socialist reforms, such as a minimum monthly wage, and one of its major independent enterprises (whence it derives its name) was a successful national labor strike, organized in the spring of 2008. Like other sectors of the Egyptian youth movement, the April 6th Movement has a strong an anti-Israel component. Among its political demands, the group calls for an end to gas exports to Israel, according to its blog. Gas from Egypt is exported to many countries around the world, although the group only demands a cessation of exports to the Jewish State.

In January 2009, the April 6th Youth Movement joined in vicious protests against Israel for its retaliation against Hamas rocket attacks. According to a New York Times profile, the protests were mostly led by the Muslim Brotherhood. In their anger over Israel’s attack on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, demonstrators condemned Mubarak for maintaining relations with Israel, exporting natural gas to Israel, and for restricting movement through Egypt’s border into Gaza.

In addition to joining with the Muslim Brotherhood in the past and during the current unrest, the internet-savvy, socialist youth movement has been very supportive of Mohamed ElBaradei, leader of the Egyptian umbrella-group, National Association for Change (NAC). According to a report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the NAC was formed in 2010 by ElBaradei to “rejuvenate the opposition scene,” presumably Kefaya. Other reports have noted that, sensing instability in the Mubarak regime, NAC’s purpose was to facilitate the president’s ouster and to serve as a “shadow parliament.”

Not only has the Muslim Brotherhood recently endorsed ElBaradei to lead the anti-Mubarak opposition, but it has a history of working with ElBaradei and the NAC in the past. In a 2010 petition campaign, the NAC received crucial support from the Brotherhood. In a show of the Islamist group’s clout among the Egyptian people, the Brotherhood was responsible for collection 2/3 of the petition’s 300,000 plus signatures, the Washington Times reported. ElBaradei himself is a controversial figure. Although it is true that he has had amicable relations with President Barack Obama in the past, as director general of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, ElBaradei was a vocal critic of the Bush administration, who accused ElBaradei of “muddying” the issue of nuclear deterrence to Iran’s advantage. ElBaradei was hostile to the international community’s position on nuclear non-proliferation, claiming that the double standard of allowing some nations to have a nuclear arsenal (i.e. Israel), while forbidding others, has lost credibility in the Arab world. The Israeli government at the time viewed him as dangerous and said that he threatened world peace.

Thus, the major players of the anti-Mubarak opposition should give us a great deal of pause. Another power-grab by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions, as is certainly within the realm of possibilities, would be a catastrophic loss for U.S. interests, the region, and for the Egyptian people themselves. On the other hand, the prospect of non-Islamist opposition in the seat of power is cold comfort to a weary Israel, a crucial bulwark of peace in the region, which stands to lose its most reliable Arab ally to pervasive anti-Israelism. Whether Mubarak’s reign will terminate sooner than later is rather immaterial in light of these seemingly unalterable alternatives.

  • Bear from Russia

    The situation is simple. As you may know last summer in Russia was extremely hot and becouse of this the harvest of grain is lower than usually. Our government stoped grain export untill spring. Egypt imported the most part of it's grain from Russia so the prices for food in Egypt has risen greatly. The Egypt is a very poor country with poor citizens and actually they don't bother about political freedom much but the do bother about food. So we have the current situation.
    I see 3 possible scenarios:
    1. Mubarak retires, people choose a new leader. The army provides order.
    2. Mubarak keeps the power and uses army against public.
    3. Mubarak retires, muslim fanatics gain the power.
    The first option is the best for the Egypt and the world, the third is the worst. Anyway not any of them can deal the problem with high prices o food.

  • Chezwick_Mac

    The ideal outcome of this "revolution" is the removal of Mubarak without the collapse of the country's institutions. He is the lightning rod for popular disaffection and his continued presence will preclude the re-establishment of social peace.

    Mubarak's successor, while publicly distancing himself from his predecessor, will hopefully impose many of the same policies, i.e., adherence to the letter of Camp David, proscriptions against the Muslim Brotherhood, cooperation with the West vis-a-vis Islamic terror, etc.

    Obama's advocacy is the opposite. The Prez seems to be working feverishly to facilitate the MB's conquest of power. Once again, just like the crises in Honduras a year ago, he's deliberately working against America's best interests.

  • ObamaYoMoma

    if the moderate wing assumes the seat of power,

    What moderate wing? There are no moderates, only secularists who are seen by all devout Muhammadans as apostates from Islam that should be executed. Islam requires total and complete submission to the will of Allah. Hence, you are either a devout Muhammadan or you are not, and if you are the latter then you should be executed.

    The only solution favorable to the US, Israel, and indeed the West is if the Egyptian military maintains its control of Egypt. However, because Obama is either a stealth Muhammadan or otherwise a gullible useful idiot, which is equally as bad, he will probably work and lobby behind the scenes and publicly to have the Egyptian military stand down in favor of true democratic elections, and if that is the case, then in all likelihood Egypt is lost, as between the delusional leftists and the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt will inevitably become a failed state, as Leftism and Islam both fail just like clockwork every time they are tried.

  • Raymond

    Information about Gonorrhea Lectim.

    The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning about
    a new virulent strain of this old disease. The disease is called
    Gonorrhea Lectim. It's pronounced "Gonna re-elect em,"
    and it is a terrible obamanation.

    This disease is contracted through dangerous and high
    risk behavior involving putting your cranium up your
    rectum. Many victims contracted it in 2008….but now
    most people, after having been infected for the past
    1-2 years, are starting to realize how destructive this
    sickness is.

    It's sad because Gonorrhea Lectim is easily cured with
    a new drug just coming out on the market called Vote-em-out.
    You take the first dose in 2010 and the second dose in
    2012 and simple don't engage in such behavior again;
    otherwise, it could become permanent and eventually
    wipe out all life as we know it.

    Several states are already on top of this, like Virginia
    and New Jersey, and now Texas,
    with many more seeing the writing on the wall.

    • Angel Amador

      I have an idea, What if we let California default throw out of the commies and bring all the Jews there to run the state while we figure out how to give them security and their own country free of the Brotherhood of evil. I know they would put California on the right path in no time so that would be a win/win :-)

      Sorry, if I was being insensitive, to the people of Israel for that comments but I am frustrated with the injustice being once again perpetrated by the world on a group of people who just want to live and prosper. People who are willing to share and commerce in good faith. My prayers are with Israel and may God come to your aid in these troubling times

    • SeaMystic

      LOVE IT!

  • Raymond

    What has America become????

    Has America become the land of special interest and home of the
    double standard? Let's see: If we lie to the Congress, it's a felony
    and if Congress lies to us it's just politics. If we dislike a black person,
    we're a racist and if a black dislikes whites, it's their 1st Amendment
    right. The government spends millions to rehabilitate criminals and
    the do almost nothing for the victims. In public schools you can teach
    that homosexuality and lesbianism is ok, but you better not use the
    word God in the process. You can murder a child in the mothers womb,
    but it's wrong to execute a mass murderer. We don't burn books in
    America, we now rewrite them. We got rid of the communist & socialist
    threat by renaming them progressives. If you protest against Obama's
    policies you're a terrorist, but if you burn an American flag or George
    Bush in effigy, it's your 1st Amendment right.

    You can have pornography on TV or the internet, but you better not
    put a nativity scene in a public park during Christmas. In America,
    criminals are now called sick people. The government takes money
    from those who work hard & gives it to those who are lazy. Parenting
    has been replaced with Ritalin & video games. The land of opportunity
    is now the land of hand outs.

    And how do we handle a major crisis today? The Government
    appoints a committee to determine who's at fault, then threatens
    them, passes a law, raises our taxes, then tells us the problem is
    solved so they can get back to their reelection campaign.

    • Wesley69

      Society today is riddled with double standards. Everyone, whether they know it or not is bowing before the altar of political correctness.

      Because the Left shouted the loudest and shamed the Right into acknowledging faults in the system, the Right appeased them, retreating from their core principles. How can you turn your back on your fellow man????? Isn't intresting how Republicans don't stand up for their own kind. This is how we got Obama.

      Finally, Conservatives have discovered their fight. Before long, the Left will cry that we are mean-spirited. If that will get Obama and the Dimocrats out, so be it.

    • Bear from Russia

      Indeed. The policy of multiculturism and total political correctness failed. Even Europe finally realized this fact. Watch the last speech of GB premier. I just wonder why you let this happened?

    • Jeff

      Right on, Raymond. You're absolutely right. Our country is upside-down. Evil is good and good is evil. Bad means good and good means, uh…

      How about bringing back the guillotine as a political incentive plan? And put it on pay-per-few?

  • USMCSniper

    The result in any case will be bad as it will be an anti-American and anto Israel Egypt when the smoke clears, because you will have a a LEFTIST JIHADIST GOVERNMENT. Read the article:
    "The principal opposition groups behind the uprising are: the Muslim Brotherhood (JIHADISTS), which is the largest; Mohamed ElBaradei (A JIHADIST) and the National Association for Change; and the socialist youth movement (COMMUNISTS).

  • Raymond

    May the Lord bless & protect Israel & the Jewish people.

    • Good Christian

      Agree! Isreal is obviousloy a bastion of freedom and democracy in a sea of brutal Islamic theocratic governments.

      Why it has become fashionable fof the "intelligentsia" of the media and Left to pick on Israel and ignore the horrible human rights violations of these Islamists is beyond my comprehension!

  • SeaMystic

    There is a great danger throughout the Islamic World including this Revolution in Egypt. In terms of pure economics of the rest of the World, the Suez Canal also the Gate of Tears off Yemen and the Strait of Hormus off Iran, are all highly vulnerable choke points for Oil to the Industrial World. Between the Gate of Tears and the Suez canal. 3.3 million barrel of oil move daily to feed the industrial nations of Europe etc..
    The Strait of Homuz has about 90% of the oil supply movement for Japan, India and other countries, passing there.
    There is now Obama as a closet Muslim with Leftist leanings attempting to stop the Oil Sands development in Canada and also Deep Sea Drilling.
    For economic reasons there must be total War against Islam, as well as stopping the Viral activity of this abominable Ideology, infesting Human Minds and Spirits.

    • SammyJ

      Great post!

  • muchiboy

    "….long-standing peace between Egypt and Israel, vital to regional stability, to disintegrate in short order."

    While the region,and specifically Israel and Egypt,undoubtedly benefited from the peace treaty,there was little worthwhile movement on the Palestinian issue by Israel that might have improved the lives and prospects of these vulnerable and victimized people.Israel continues to occupy and repress the Palestinian people,even while they consolidate their immoral land grab after sixty years.Meanwhile,oblivious to their despicable and unconscionable policies and acts,Israelis and their supporters whine and wail at their own pigeons coming home to roost.Cry me a river,Israel.Meanwhile,the worm,ever so slowly and inexorably, turns.muchiboy

    • ziontruth

      The Muslims continue to occupy and repress the Palestinian people (=the Jews), even while they consolidate their immoral land grabs after nearly 1,400 years. Meanwhile, oblivious to their despicable and unconscionable atrocities and acts, the Muslims and their supporters whine and wail "Islamophobia!" at their own pigeons coming home to roost. Cry me a river, Muslims and their supporters.

      • scum

        There is no 2000 year 'right of return', sorry…

    • MixMChess

      "Israel continues to occupy and repress the Palestinian people,even while they consolidate their immoral land grab after sixty years."

      Nope, you are lying. Israel completely withdrew from Gaza in 2005 and the W. Bank is autonomously governed by the P.A.. Israel has stated that it is willing to withdraw from most of the W. Bank and even exchange Israeli land in any final settlement. Is there a reason why you continue to lie and defame Israel Ronald Grant?

      • scum

        Uh, what about the continued construction of illegal settlements? Have you not seen them on your latest tour of Israel?

        • MixMChess

          Actually, numerous legal authorities dispute the charge that settlements are “illegal."

          That said, the particular settlements you are referring to are in the outskirts of E. Jerusalem. These are not "new settlements" at all, in fact they are simply new homes planned for existing Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem. All neighborhoods are completely within Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, are currently uninhabited, and not adjacent to any Arab populations or neighborhoods. Additionally, their are plans for 3,015 housing units in 10 Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem which were to be built simultaneously with the project.

          Of course, E. Jerusalem has historically always had a thriving Jewish majority which included the Jewish Quarter of the Old City and many sites of importance to the Jewish religion, including the City of David, the Temple Mount and the Western Wall. Additionally, major Jewish institutions like Hebrew University and the original Hadassah Hospital are all located in E. Jerusalem.

          In fact, the only time that the eastern part of Jerusalem was exclusively Arab was between 1949-1967 when Jordan illegally occupied the area and forcibly expelled/ethnically cleansed all the Jews.

    • MixMChess

      "Israel and Egypt, undoubtedly benefited from the peace treaty, there was little worthwhile movement on the Palestinian issue by Israel that might have improved the lives and prospects of these vulnerable and victimized people."

      I can't believe I am saying this, but you are SOMEWHAT RIGHT muchiboy. Congratulations! The Palestinians have not benefited at all from the Egyptians, they only mooch and leech off of Israel.

      Recall, it is the Israelis who provided over 1 million tons of humanitarian aid (or 1 ton per resident to Gaza) in 2009 ALONE. Pictures in local newspapers show local markets aplenty with fruit, vegetables, cheese, spices, bread and meat.

      In the first quarter of 2010 (January-March), 94,500 tons of supplies were transferred in 3,676 trucks to the Strip: 48,000 tons of food products; 40,000 tons of wheat; 2,760 tons of rice; 1,987 tons of clothes and footwear; 553 tons of milk powder and baby food. The IDF transfers supplies to Gaza 6 days a week. In a typical week the IDF coordinates the transfer of hundreds of trucks containing about 15,000 tons of supplies.

      As for the W. Bank, Israel provided the necessary economic aid and military security necessary to allow the W. Bank to experience a economic and financial boom that started in 2008-2009 and continues to this day! The Wall Street Journal reported an unprecedented 9% economic increase in the W. Bank in 2010.

      Ramallah hosts a haute couture clothing store offering Palestinians python-skin purses by Prada for $3,000, Sergio Rossi heels, and one-of-a-kind Valentino dresses. Next door, the Zaman Café serves up Belgian microbrews, French Bordeauxs and $4 cappuccinos. Or Palestinians can buy a car from the Mercedes dealership that opened a showroom on Ramallah Boulevard: "Owners say it is doing a brisk business selling luxury-class sports cars and sport-utility vehicles, with sticker prices ranging from $100,000 to $200,000, to wealthy Palestinians." And, in Noveber, "Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts made its Palestinian debut, opening the city's first five-star hotel. The 172-room, $40 million hotel boasts a head chef imported from Florence, a pastry chef from Paris, and a lobby bedecked in marble and Italian suede." In the past 6 months, the West Bank has also seen the launch of three private-equity funds.

      All of these benefits have been provided on the Israeli dime with absolutely no help (not even 1 cent) from the Egyptians.

      • scum

        Actually, Israel has starved the Palestinians in order to weaken them. But Israel profits off the cheap labor of Palestinians. Look at photos of real Palestinian 'homes' to see the truth.

  • ObamaYoMoma


    Uhm at the same time you cry crocodile tears and pretend to obsess over non-existent persecution of the poor so-called Palestinians, which are the proxies of the Islamic world whose sole purpose is to wage jihad perpetually against Israel until the final genocidal jihad can come, you also very conspicuously ignore the systematic persecution and often violent oppression of all females and kafir infidel unbelievers that live in Muhammadan countries under Muhammadan rule, even as it happens in every Muhammadan majority country without exception, as in only a few years the Islamic world will become totally devoid of kafir infidel unbelievers altogether with the lone exception of Israel. Indeed, you would rather spend your total life fanatically demonizing and vilifying Israel and Jews to incite hatred and violence against them in the hopes that you can instigate and facilitate the next genocidal holocaust of Jews. Dude it sucks to be you!

    • muchiboy

      "non-existent persecution of the poor so-called Palestinians"

      I have to wonder what moral universe you occupy,ObamaYoMoma.Denial can be an atrocity,as we have seen with those who persecuted the Jews or otherwise still deny their real and systemic persecution.

      "the proxies of the Islamic world"

      Perhaps,but no more then Israel is a proxy of the West and America.

      "sole purpose is to wage jihad perpetually against Israel until the final genocidal jihad can come"

      True,on this forum I am single minded about arguing for the Palestinian cause,but you go too far when you accuse me of supporting final genocide against the Israeli Jews.As we have seen in a recent article here,we must be careful and more vigilant when we make comparisons to the Holocaust.I can very easily make an arguable case for genocide by the Zionists against the Palestinian people but to what purpose.It just invites more useless rhetoric and ups the emotional intensity of the argument.

      "conspicuously ignore the systematic persecution and often violent oppression of all females and"

      Guilty as charged,ObamaYoMoma.As on this opinion,and likely others,we concur. But my focus is on the occupation and repression of the Palestinian people by your people.Period.Maybe in future arguments I will be more forth coming in my criticism of the Arab side,if only to demonstrate our common ground,how ever limited.

      "fanatically demonizing and vilifying Israel and Jews to incite hatred and violence against them in the hopes that you can instigate and facilitate the next genocidal holocaust of Jews."

      There you go again,ObamaYoMoma,accusations of genocide and Holocaust.You keep crossing the line.Your anger at any and all significant criticism of Israel and Zionism has affected your ability to argue critically and leads again and again to flawed reasoning,accusations and conclusions.As you were the one to introduce the sentiment here,I feel justified in saying that arguing with you on this subject is becoming as frustrating and pointless as arguing the case of antisemitism with a rabid Nazi.Keep it up and I will simply filter out all your replies to my comments.As it stands,your insults contribute nothing to the arguments.Leave out your unacceptable Holocaust related insults and accusations and I will continue to debate you.Otherwise I will filter out your trash. muchiboy

  • ObamaYoMoma

    The reality is with respect to Egypt if there are democratic elections held it doesn’t really matter who wins, since either way Egypt will inevitably become a failed state, because if the Muslim Brotherhood sweeps to power, Egypt will become another fanatical failed Islamic Sharia state, and if the anti-Semitic Left sweeps to power, on the other hand, Egypt will inevitably also become another failed state as Marxism has failed every time it has been tried. Hence, either way the future of Egypt and the Egyptians doesn’t bid well. Hence, the only viable solution that offers the best solution for all is for the military to maintain in control of Egypt. Too bad Obama will do everything in his power to undermine the military.

  • Lightning Jack

    You cannot impart into a government or people what you do not possess. Democracy is a western concept that has never existed in the Middle East for thousands of years, nor will it exist after the rebellion in Egypt is over.

    The problem is that most Egyptians want a Sharia compliant-theocratic state with western-style socioeconomic reforms, many of which, cannot exist if Egypt transcends back into a typical Middle Eastern model of Islamic governance.

    With the exception of limited petrochemical development and tourism, Egypt produces nothing that the global market needs. So the question is, can the Egyptians find an economic niche similar to the United Arab Emirates or Dubai?

    If there's already talk of discriminating against actual paying customers, such as Israel, for the very few petrochemical products that you do sell, then what example does Egypt set for itself and others to see in the global market? If you want a free, viable and prosperous nation with a strong economy then you had better dump the identity politics and focus on getting competitive in the regional and global markets.

  • Wesley69

    Democratic elections will take Egypt down the same path that Iran took. Khomeini played his coalition partners for suckers, then executed them installing an Islamic Republic, which was more vicious than the Shah‘s regime.

    When asked Egyptians approved of stoning for adultery, flogging for minor offenses, death for apostasy. They want Sharia, and the Muslim Brotherhood will give it to them and the masses will give power to the Brotherhood. Egypt, I am afraid is lost. And you can forget the army, it will never fire on its people.

    As for the US, Arab countries will be thinking twice about any alliance they have with us. We tossed Mubarak overboard and he was a better ally than most.

    The peace that Israel has had for about 40 years will be soon over. It’s right to use the Suez Canal will be revoked and once again Israeli shipping will be harassed from the tip of the Sinai peninsula.

    After all the pieces to the Islamic Caliphate are put in place, it will be the time to end Israel's existence. This Super State may succeed in destroying Israel, but not without a cost. Cairo, Alexandria, Damascus, Baghdad, Teheran, Mecca and Medina and other Muslim population centers will lie in radioactive ruins. Israel may be gone, but, it will take many of its enemies with it.

    Maybe if we had backed Mubarak in his crackdown early on in the crisis, we would not be looking at losing the rest of the Mideast. We have not made the world safer. We have moved in closer to the brink from which there is no return. Great diplomacy, Mr. President, Sir and Madame Secretary of State.

  • Patrick Henry

    Democracy is a means to an end, so it will produce what's acceptable to the majority. The Muslim Brotherhood wants Sharia law, war with Israel and form the nucleus of a new caliphate. The socialists want redistribution of wealth and the moderate faction wants…democracy, but to what end is not clear. But what about the army? A war with Israel would destroy them in short order.
    Bottom line: the moderate forces, such as they are, have a window of opportunity to negotiate with the army to create a new constitution and hope that they can not only win enough seats in parilament to block a new totalitarianism from taking hold but be able to withstand many bloody years of Jihadist violence. If I was a betting man, I have to say the Brotherhood will win in the end.

  • Ehab Youssef

    I simply don't see what is happening in Egypt as Chaos, but its the result of 30 years of socioeconomic, political and educational chaos that led to what Egypt and Egyptians are facing right now … Which is defiantly much better than what we can expect could have happen If Mubarak and his regime were still ruling with all the corruption, torturing, stealing, tyranny, terror attacks they planed on Christians to cause sectarian fights in order to keep the police state in power for the smooth transition of power for Gamal Mubarak, whom he planed with the Security Services to bomb in 2005 Sharm ElSheikh Resort of the famous businessman Hussein Salem to give him a lesson after he decreased his comission in the natural gas contract with Israel…

    So talking chaos … Egypt is in no chaos but in a result of a freezed chaotic state of 30 years where Egyptians were deceived be thinking that were were living in a Country and State and they found by documents that it was a State of Corruption and a Country of Thieves..

    What Egyptians after the revolution are doing is to relax the normal revolt of angry people after what they found of corruption by trials of the corrupts and rebuilding the economy in the way that suits the Egyptian society in the social justice sense ….