Yemen Falling

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AQAP has reportedly taken over a town in Abyan province and declared an “Islamic Emirate.” Most observers scoff at the idea of an independent al-Qaeda emirate, but the AQAP move demonstrates that the chaos roiling the streets and provinces of Yemen is benefiting the terrorists as Saleh’s control of the country continues to shrink to Sanaa and a few other urban centers.

In addition to AQAP in the north, there is another insurgency in the formerly independent south. Separatists there have also taken advantage of the chaos to push into areas formerly controlled by the central government. It would appear that the longer the political crisis goes on in Sanaa, the more advantageous the situation will be for AQAP and the Iranian backed Houthi rebellion in the north, and the separatists in the south.

What has the Obama administration done about the situation? As in Egypt, they have abandoned a long-time ally, while pushing for “reforms.” On April 5, the White House released a statement condemning the violence in Yemen and calling on President Saleh to step down. Privately, they were hoping that Saleh could broker a deal that would have him remain in power in some capacity. Richard Fontaine of Foreign Policy Magazine believes that a “best case scenario” would see a situation where “Yemeni politics could reach a more stable footing and, through a new openness, undermine the appeal of extremism.” Fontaine also hopes that “Washington might pursue a broad relationship that extends beyond security cooperation and aid to active support of a budding democracy.” Out of this relationship might be forged a new counterterrorism dynamic based on a more stable foundation than the mercurial Saleh.

But the collapse of the GCC agreement makes that scenario a remote possibility. Hundreds of thousands of protestors were in the street on Sunday calling for Saleh’s immediate departure. Meanwhile, the GCC announced that it would conduct no more negotiations; the two sides must accept the agreed framework.

Saleh may not have a choice in a few days. The army is far from loyal and the possibility of civil war grows by the hour. A Sanaa-based political analyst, Abdel Ghani, believes “If this is the end, then Yemen is facing a major crisis. After all these negotiations we’ve exhausted all of our potential mediators. If we don’t have a solution now, then violence will be the next logical step.”

And only Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will be the beneficiary.

Rick Moran is Blog Editor of The American Thinker, and Chicago Editor of PJ Media. His personal blog is Right Wing Nuthouse.

 

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  • Fred Dawes

    'Well yes', obama wants al Qaeda in power its part of the plan and any yemeni who are not muslims will just disappear, The funny thing is soon this will mean nothing with the falling dollar and the coming job and home and business and cultural down fall its going to look like germany 1929.

  • ObamaYoMoma

    This is bad news for Saudi Arabia who greatly fears the unrest on its border.

    Actually, this is a very fitting justice, as the Saudis are by far the biggest sponsors of jihad in the world, although our federal government tries to hide that fact by claiming Iran is the biggest sponsors of jihad. You reap what you sow, and the Saudis are reaping what they have sown.

    With respect to Saleh, he is an ally like Pakistan and all Muhammadan countries, in that he is playing a double game.

    Nevertheless, AQ in the Arabian Peninsular wouldn’t be much of a threat to America if a huge population of Muhammadans with thousands of mosques and madrassas weren’t already present in America. In fact, the only reason the 9/11 terrorist attacks were possible in the first place was because of the presence of Islam in America. Hence, the solution is simple, ban and reverse Muhammadan immigration with all of its excess baggage on the grounds that Islam and Muhammadans aren’t compatible with liberal democratic values. Indeed, without Muhammadans living in America and the West, the jihadists would represent a far smaller threat to our national security and freedom.

  • BLJ

    I agree that the Saudi's are part of the problem. Look up the word "backstabber" in the dictionary and a picture of a Saudi will be shown.

    Let the Yemen's kill themselves and Allah can sort it out.

    • Fred Dawes

      you are so right, but obama is the big backstabber here, and remumber old and Bush didn't he and his father make deal after deal with the saudi bitchs.

      • BLJ

        Yes they did as well. The U.S. has let those camel jockeys jerk us around since the 1970's.

  • Wesley69

    Another US ally having the rug pulled out from under it. Obama, your foreign policy will be remembered – remembered because of the major strategic defeats it sustained.

  • stevehartken

    lol @ al Qaeda: the mendicant who kills.

    Please people. We destroyed these guys. At best we can hit their state sponsors for WMDs but they're no threat. Mexico. Now that's a threat.

  • http://avisdeconsommateur.com Avis de consommateur

    Good article it was nice to know at this time.