Obama Warns Gaddafi

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“Libya’s military forces are regularly regarded as being among the worst anywhere in the world, and certainly within the Middle East, ranking below even Syria in its levels of training, equipment and readiness,” Strategy Page states.

Strategy Page also calls training and leadership in the Libyan army “horrendous,” saying its most useful role consisted of “suppressing unarmed demonstrators.”

Gaddafi deliberately kept his army in such a deplorable state to keep it from posing a challenge to his regime. Which was probably a wise move, since the army contained members from tribes unfriendly to his rule, which would also help account for the recent defections. According to a report in the French newspaper Le Figaro, there have been 20 anti-Gaddafi uprisings in the Libyan military since the late 1960s.

The units that received government largess, Strategy Page reports, were those charged with keeping the regime in power. Included in their number are special forces units and the Regime Security Brigade, commanded by one of the dictator’s sons. Members of Gaddafi’s tribe are also prominent in the Libyan air force, as Monday’s air strikes testify. But it is upon the People’s Militia, numbering “anywhere from 45,000 to 120,000,” that Gaddafi “lavished arms,” and which “might fight to the death to defend the capital.”

Moreover, Gaddafi may not have surrendered all his weapons of mass destruction in 2003 when he sought reconciliation with the West after Saddam Hussein’s defeat. If cornered, a vicious dictator like Gaddafi, who used to blow up discos and airplanes, would undoubtedly not hesitate to use them against advancing opposition forces, like his friend Saddam Hussein did in the Iran-Iraq war. To avoid such an eventuality and further bloodshed, the Obama administration has demanded that he step down, and has wisely offered Gaddafi an exit strategy in the form of exile. But, as Monday’s government offensive demonstrates, Gaddafi appears confident he can still hold his own.

Unfortunately, military intervention on the side of the anti-Gaddafi forces is not an easy prospect. At the moment, the opposition is still not a united force. Susan Rice also said on Monday that while the administration has been in contact with elements in Libya’s civil society, “it’s unclear at this point who will emerge as critical opposition elements.”

There is also the danger that the anti-Gaddafi opposition will dissolve even before the battle to depose him is over. Although there is a national identity in Libya, recent events have shown many Libyans’ principal loyalty is to their tribe. The current insurrection began in eastern Libya among impoverished tribes that were not getting a share of the oil wealth due to a perceived lack of loyalty to the Supreme Leader. With the oil starting to flow again in eastern Libya, fighting could break out among the anti-Gaddafi tribes for the same reason, especially if any tribe lays sole claim to the oil-producing areas. For the sake of his survival, Gaddafi would probably love to see Libya become a new Somalia, a state and society broken by clan and tribal fighting.

A worst-case scenario, however, would see a protracted civil war between eastern and western Libya. An analysis by Stratfor Global Intelligence states such a possibility exists, since the country’s two oil-producing areas are around the opposition stronghold of Benghazi and just west of Tripoli, Gaddafi’s headquarters. The money from the oil sales would provide funds for a long-term struggle that could see Libya eventually split into two separate entities.

But such an eventuality would not be in anyone’s interest. A long-term, violent instability would not only cause many deaths, destruction and untold suffering among the Libyan people, but endanger the whole region. A quick, overwhelming strike by American and international forces in conjunction with the anti-Gaddafi opposition would end the killing, stabilise the oil supply and give Libyans a chance to embark on a post-Gaddafi future with most of their country’s structure still intact. The White House, it appears, is definitely considering giving Libyans that chance.

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  • Viking

    Maybe the West should supply both sides with weapons. As long as the adherents of the religion of murder are killing are spending all their energy, money and resources killing each other, the less energy, money and resources they will spend making trouble for the West.

    • Fred Dawes

      Now that is a real idea.

  • Chezwick_Mac

    Direct military intervention would be a huge mistake. It would basically confer upon us ownership of, and responsibility for, whatever happens in Libya following Qaddafi's fall. The last thing we need is expenditure of more blood and treasure trying to civilize yet another Islamic hell-hole.

    Use moral, political and economic pressure. Qaddafi's days are numbered as is.

  • imnokuffar

    Whut ?

    And how exactly is he going to intervene ?

    The man is a cretin.

    Get rid of him.

    Now !

  • Steve Chavez

    What about his NOBLE PEACE PRIZE? Wouldn't they have to ask for it back especially when he did nothing to deserve it in the first place? They gave it to him on "hope" that he wouldn't attack and defend any U.S. Interests leaving the Communists, Islamists, Socialists, and Progressives to finally get their revenge against the United States, the West, and the Infidels! OBAMA AGREES WITH THAT STRATEGY! He grew up with America Haters, went to church with a RACIST, and has now surrounded himself with a Circle of Communists!

    Hillary Clinton is so tough! They're really scared of her! They're laughing at her! She didn't even have the guts to leave "her man" when he was caught cheating numerous times and probably when she and Chelsea were in the same House! She's a coward when other women would have left with nothing!

    "3:00 AM phone call?" Obama checks the Caller ID and falls back asleep!

    • danica

      I like what you said, communism was my youth in Czechosl, my family before that nazism. I am so sick now what i see. South Side Chicago will be a Paradajz for G. there is infestation of communists+Islamo- fashists, i wonder who will win the conquring at the end? I will sit and watch 3D movie I already have a leading man. Farakan the judge

      • Maggie

        Let me guess.
        Are you the "leading man?"

      • Maggie

        Oh, Wait a minute. I"m confused. Did you say "Farakan" the judge. If Farakan could take just ONE step away from the conciousness of "hate" that he embraces. He MIGHT just see that the "Muslims (who he embraces) conquered and "SOLD" HIS African people to OUR colonists. And ACTUALLY, the Middle East (Islam) STILL has slaves. Just ask the 5,000 Pakastani children who are abducted to ride and train for the Arab Sheik's camel races every year. Remember the Arabs would have sex with darker skinned slave women, but (should a male child be born) out of this consumation, HE WOULD be CASTRATED because the males resulting from this consumation,were black and considered lesser beings. in Islam, homosexuality does not apply to boys under 13. Because they are not considered men. Thereby bypassing that" homosexual" issue Let's view a 3D movie of the "Real Islam", then we can choose, Farkakan, if you are a judge of your own then you are your people's ultimate demise. God bless you.

  • BS77

    It's sad to see most of the West dependent upon these horrible dictatorships and theocratic slave states….for oil. If Libya had no oil, the story would be on the back pages. One more thing….please….no more close ups of Kaddaffi….ugh.

  • antileft

    Such a paragon of man ! -to quote the great Bard – this Quadaffi. What else but to immitate him in the way he a) dresses b) encircles himself with a hundred virgin beauties-abducted, purchased when infants on the slave market ? c)expresses his love and admiration of his people whom he has been strafing, raping, maiming, torturing, stabbing, stretching on the rack etc..Yes, ecce homo ! Well, quaddaffi, mio caro, the missile tubes are being prepped, and they have something in store for ya, and it ain´t vanilla ice-cream or doobie, njet, and they respond poorly to your green-book incantations and ju-ju charms ! Have no worry, they do not miss !!

  • USMCSniper

    China is watching, and has never been impressed with American sabre rattling or gunboat diplomacy as idle threats, and will keep that in mind when they seize Taiwan. Besides, why all this risk to American lives and monetary expense for a bunch of Muslim sand ni*%$ers whop want Sharia law as their end game?

    • Chezwick_Mac

      My friend, I want to say first and foremost that I enjoy your posts and consistently agree with them. I also want to thank you for your service to our country (if you are in fact a USMCSniper).

      Having said that, I must implore you not to use such language. It's an affront to African-Americans, some of whom are conservatives who support our goals and may visit this site regularly.

      Furthermore, language like this validates the otherwise slanderous charges of our ideological enemies, that sites like FPM are the domain of bigots and racists.

      At least consider it.

      • USMCSniper

        African-Americans is a term invented by the shakedown conman the Revvveeerend Jesse Jackson to replace the correct racial term "Negroes". Africa is a continent where semetic, caucasian, and negroid peoples and mixed races reside, so the term is absurb – and Whoppi Goldberg agrees. So restated: "Okay, Besides, why all this risk to American lives and monetary expense for a bunch of Muslim misogynist jihadists want Sharia law and to kill all the Christians as their end game anyway?" Is that better?

        • Chezwick_Mac

          The term is no more "absurd" than Latin-American, Hungarian-American, Jewish-American, etc. But thanks for clarifying where you're coming from.

      • Maggie

        High two buddy!

  • http://www.chick.com Raymond

    Due to the popularity of the "Survivor" shows, Texas is planning to do one entitled,

    "Survivor, Texas-Style!"

    The 8 contestants will all start in Dallas , then drive to Waco ,Austin , San Antonio , over to Houston and down to Brownsville … They will then proceed up to Del Rio , El Paso , Odessa , Midland , Lubbock , and Amarillo . From there they will go on to Abilene , Fort Worth and finally back to Dallas …

    Each will be driving a pink Volvo with bumper stickers that read:

    "I'm a Democrat,"
    "Amnesty for Illegals,"
    "I love the Dixie Chicks,"
    "Boycott Beef,"
    "I Voted for Obama,"
    " George Strait Sucks,"
    "Hillary in 2012"
    "I'm here to confiscate your guns."

    The first one to make it back to Dallas alive wins.

    God Bless Texas !

  • morristhewise

    Seniors in the Middle East need our help, most are reduced to scavenging and begging to survive. There is only one nation wealthy enough to come to their aid. Senior centers have to be built, they will be a place where the aged and senile can be offered some respite from the harsh realities of life. There is no better way of making friends for America then the show of support for those that can not walk alone.

    • USMCSniper

      Oh now we have to provide for the Muslim Jihadists fathers and mothers rather than the ten kids they have had because they are looking after them. Arab Oil rich countries have more money than us. We are broke flat and owe $14,000,000,000,000. Read this and it why: http://buchanan.org/blog/pjb-a-brief-for-whitey-9

    • Fred Dawes

      "Oh My God:.. now we got to help the old monkeys? in the middle east? hey guy what about the 37 billion dollers that monkey Gaddafi got? and why would any rational people help the enemies of freedom ? in world war two the libyan people helped hitlers boys not American guys check your history out! most wanted hitler to win that war.
      Now you want Americans to help the old, that is total madness but under the head money MONEY obama The Great leader of the world of big time monkeys may just do what you want,.. it may just happen. by the way old money bags gaddafi is buying up black amd other armed guys all over the world and killing his own people, i say so what think H-BOMB

  • william wallace

    Suddenly our mighty leadership wants to invade Libya. We were silent on real non-Islamic protests in Iran. Our president is displaying his true beliefs.

  • WilliamJamesWard

    It may be a sure thing, Obama has a secret weapon in his best advisor,
    who by the way may be a surprise, none other than Charlie Sheen. Last
    seen at the White House for and invasion strategy was the Unibomber
    and Al Sharpton, there are others and Mope Daffy for some mysterious
    reason seems unperturbed, what can he know? I just don't get a good
    feeling about this, wouldn't it be better to drill our own oil?………William

  • BS77

    I hope aid and governmental change comes quickly to the Libyans, the elderly, women, children , people attempting to flee into Tunisia……..a humanitarian crisis is unfolding.

  • Fred Dawes

    The boys ( BIG MONEY ) really want us in one more war that will never end and that is how you dismantle a great nation by using wars and this nation will become just one more third world monkey state.
    The Americans will be sold one more BS Line. and BS77 Right now we see more and more elderly people both guys and old woman coming back into the so called work force how about some love for the 80 years old that can not live on the little money from our social befits and all you see will come down like a house of cards really soon.

  • BS77

    I am saying the worst of these events impact people who are not " news worthy.." .the media keeps focused on the crazy mobs and violence….not the elderly, the children, the mothers and fathers who are desperately trying to protect their families from the poverty, hunger and chaos of this situation. Think of how terrifying the shooting, looting, fires and mob insanity are to little children.