The Muslim Brotherhood’s Useful Idiots

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But actually, that is not the case. By permitting the Brotherhood to participate in the elections for parliament and the presidency, the military signed the death warrant of its regime. The Brotherhood will rule Egypt. The only thing left to be determined is whether its takeover will happen quickly or slowly.

To understand why this is the case, it is important to notice what happened in Turkey. When the Islamist AKP party won the 2002 elections, the Turkish military was constitutionally authorized to control the country. As the guardians of Turkey’s secular state, Turkey’s military was constitutionally empowered to overthrow democratically elected governments.

Ten years later, Turkey is a populist, authoritarian, Islamic state. Half the general officer corps is in prison, held without charge or on trumped up charges. Turkey’s judiciary and civil service are controlled by Islamists. The AKP is filling the military’s officer corps with its loyalists.

When you know what you want, you use all the tools at your disposal to achieve your goals. When you don’t know what you want, no matter what tools you hold, you will fail to achieve your goals.

The Egyptian military today is far weaker than the Turkish military was in 2002. And it has already been outmaneuvered by the Brotherhood. The only way for it to secure its hold on power is through brute force. And the generals have already shown they are unwilling to use sufficient force to repress the Brotherhood.

The regime’s decision to outlaw the parliament and decree the military above the president was not a show of strength. It was a panicked act of desperation by a regime that knows its days are numbered. So was its decision to delay announcing the winner of the presidential elections.

When Morsy declared victory in the presidential elections on Sunday, he did so surrounded by members of the just-dissolved parliament. His act was a warning to the military. The Brotherhood will not allow the ruling to stand.

It is possible the Brotherhood will stand down in this confrontation with the military over the parliamentary election. But the military will emerge vastly weakened. And when the next round of confrontation inevitably arrives, the military will have even less clout. And so on and so forth.

THE INEVITABILITY of the Islamic takeover of Egypt means that the peace between Israel and Egypt is meaningless. Confrontation is coming. The only questions that remain are how long it will take and what form it will come in. If it happens slowly, it will be characterized by a gradual escalation of cross-border attacks from Sinai by Hamas and other jihadist groups. Hamas’s sudden eagerness to take responsibility for the mortar attacks against southern Israel as well as Monday morning’s murderous cross-border attack are signs of things to come.

With the Brotherhood ascending to power, the security cooperation Israel has received from the Egyptian security forces in Sinai is over. And the regime won’t suffice with doing nothing to stop terror. It will encourage it. Just as the Egyptian military sponsored and organized the fedayeen raids from Gaza in the 1950s, so today the regime will sponsor and eventually organize irregular attacks from Sinai and Gaza.

In the rapid-path-to-confrontation scenario, the Egyptian military itself will participate in attacks against Israel. Egyptian troops may take potshots at Israelis from across the border. They may remilitarize Sinai. They may escalate attacks against the US-commanded MFO forces in Sinai that are supposed to keep the peace with the goal of convincing them to withdraw.

Whether the confrontation happens tomorrow or in a year or two, the question of whether the military remains the titular ruler of Egypt or not is irrelevant to Israel.

In their attempt to maintain their power and privilege, the first bargaining chip the generals will sacrifice is their support for the peace with Israel. With the US siding with the Brotherhood against the military, maintaining the peace treaty has ceased to be important for the generals.

This dismal situation requires Israel’s leaders to take several steps immediately. First, our leaders must abandon their diplomatic language regarding Egypt. No point is served by not acknowledging that the southern front – dormant since 1981 – has reawakened and that Israel’s peace with Egypt is now meaningless.

Recall that it was under Mubarak’s leadership that the Egyptian media reported that the Mossad was deploying sharks as secret agents and ordering them to attack tourists along Egypt’s seacoast in an effort to destroy Egypt’s tourism industry.

Since Israel doesn’t need to actually do or say anything to cause the Egyptians to attack, we might as well be honest in our own discussion of the situation. At a minimum, frank talk will ensure that the steps we take on the ground to meet the challenge of Egypt will be based on reality and not on an attempt to ignore reality.

Straight talk is also important in the international arena. For the past 30 years, in the interest of protecting the peace treaty, Israel never defended itself against Egypt’s diplomatic assaults on its very right to exist. Now it can and must fight back with full force.

At a minimum, this will enable Israel to wage a coherent diplomatic defense of whatever military action it will eventually need to take to defend itself against Egyptian aggression.

As to that aggression, we don’t have any good options on the ground. We cannot operate openly in Sinai. If we retaliate against missile attacks with air strikes, the Brotherhood-led Egyptian government will use our defensive action to justify war. So we need to massively expand our ability to operate covertly.

Aside from that, we must equip and train our military to win a war against the US-trained and-armed Egyptian military.

However the Egyptian election results pan out, the die has been cast. We must prepare for what is coming.

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  • richard sherman

    The 2012 election in Egypt is identical to the 1933 election in Germany. The result will be identical: war and thousands of dead Jews.

    • Choi

      TRY 6,000,000 DEAD JEWS , not thousands, MURDERED by the Nazis and their WILLING Helpers.

  • Steve Chavez

    THE WORLD has been dealing with JIMMY CARTER'S IRANIAN MULLAHS for decades. (Imagine if Barack Obama had supported Iran's GREEN REVOLUTION as vigorously as he did the ARAB SPRING and today there would be "democracy" in Iran instead of a country who's on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons and sends its Armies, funds, and weapons to their proxies in Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah with the goal of "wiping Israel off the map.")

    THE WORLD will be dealing with BARACK OBAMA'S MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD FOR CENTURIES since they will never give up power as they DISMANTLE THE VERY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS that they used in their "democracy." Now they will be free to jail and even kill opponents AND CHRISTIANS, and to use their own Sharia Law to enslave women even as those very women voted for them.

    LOOK FOR A UNITED FRONT/Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, American Dupes, WITH IRAN, and others including our so-called Arab Friends and the silence from Obama even as he fully supports them, AGAINST ISRAEL.

    • Neils60

      Jimmy Carter stated that Israel has nothing to fear, because the Moslem Brotherhood will continue with the 1979 peace treaty with just a few minor modifications. In fact, Carter stated that he put "his trust in the Brotherhood." Surprise, surprise, Morsey, Egypt's new Muslim Brotherhood president, stated just this morning that he's re-thinking the entire 1979 agreement and is anxious to strengthen ties with (Adolph Ahmedinijad's) Iran. (Remember, too, this was the same Moslem Brotherhood who promised that they wouldn't run a candidate for president just some 16 months ago.)

  • mlcblog

    Excellent article.

  • Sage on the Stage

    Israel is at war–185 rockets fired at the Jewish state last week-and intense fighting, with Egypt, Iran, and perhaps Hezbollah-isn't far off. Support Israel however you can.

  • Tom Sullivan

    The Muslim Brotherhood is totalitarian, dedicated to worldwide Muslim dominance. Whatever power they have will be spent to destroy all others. The US is their Great Satan, and Israel is the Little Satan. It remains to be seen if the Egyptian military will bow to them or not.

  • stevefraser

    Absolutely excellent analysis of what is really happening in Egypt. Much thanks.

  • Anamah

    My soul goes with you precious Israel. I'm counting the days of this dangerous Obama administration still in power…I do no comply!

  • WilliamJamesWard

    It remains to be seen if the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Military can work together or at
    all, militarsts will not give up power and will destroy any threat to their power. The street
    demonstrations are allowed up to a point and society will have to justify the loss of jobs, food
    rationing and no future outside of going hungry on their prayer rugs which they will eventually wish
    were flying carpets takng them out of Egypt. Israel must remain vigilant as the military will probably
    look the other way for Islamist terrorists to aid Hammas and use the Sinai for continuous attacks.
    I can only see prolonged violence culminating in war. Financial help for Israeli institutions should be
    a serious consideration. Magen David Adom is the Israeli Red Cross and a worthy organization
    to support…………………………………William

    • WilliamJamesWard

      Troll in the neighborhood…………………William

  • Dave

    I doubt that Egypt will be a problem for Israel. I expect it will present opportunities for increased aid and distract attention from settlement building.

    Turkey is portrayed a bogeyman in this article. But consider the fact that NATO, of which Turkey is a member, sent jets into Syrian territory to probe Syrian air defenses and, likely, to provoke an incident that will draw NATO into an attack on Syria. This goes against the interests of the Turkish people, and is really incredibly considering they are acting against their co-religionists. Turkey is a United States poodle, ultimately controlled by Israel.

    Sadly, this is another article causing unnecessary stress to Jewish people, making them feel that the world is against them, and consequently having them side with vested interests (e.g. the military industrial complex) who ultimately cause damage to Jewish people.

    • ziontruth

      "I doubt that Egypt will be a problem for Israel. … Turkey is portrayed a bogeyman in this article."

      Nothing to worry about, go back to sleep. /sarc

      "Turkey is a United States poodle, ultimately controlled by Israel."

      The same old tune sung again, the same old libel, the biggest problem with which is that it isn't true (if it ever had been, "Jewish power" could have prevented so many atrocities that have befallen the Jews).

      "Sadly, this is another article causing unnecessary stress to Jewish people, … ultimately cause damage to Jewish people."

      Your concern is duly noted, as is your being a troll.

      "…vested interests (e.g. the military industrial complex)"

      And your 1968-style Marxism as well.

      "…unnecessary stress to Jewish people, making them feel that the world is against them,…"

      In the Passover Seder we Jews mark the fact that people wish to destroy the Jewish nation in every generation. The Haggadah was written by the Sages of Judaism; I'll take their word over that of a Protocols-believing Marxist concern-troll like you any day.

  • Dennis Metz

    It is so werid how you can read all about hitler and how nazis killed millions of jews but people will not write about farraconvict when he preaches about killing jews and he is a live today? how many black leaders and reverands come out and preach about killing jews/?

  • Bone in my Trous

    History will repeat itself. It always does. Humanity never learns, making the same mistakes over and over again.