Writing on the Wall for Egyptian/Israeli Peace

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And yet some have speculated that the Egyptian and Israelis – joint victims of the terrorists, but uncomfortable neighbors – might be drawn back into creative alliance. The New York Times referred hopefully to “early signs of cooperation and coordination.”

And, indeed, some will point to the fact that the latest terrorist incident is an embarrassment and setback for both the Brotherhood and Hamas, which had been busy cementing ties. They will note that Egypt has now closed its Gaza crossing and insisted Hamas shut down its tunnels into Sinai. And they will derive comfort form the fact that Morsi has vowed to “impose full control” over Sinai.

Don’t believe it.

Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, who carried out the latest attack, account for merely a part of the terrorist activities in Sinai or Gaza. The real traffic in men and arms is run by Hamas, which is turning Gaza in Sinai into a launching pad for war with Israel – with Morsi’s help. Last week’s slaughter of Egyptian soldiers did not provide Morsi with the incentive to constrain Hamas, but with the opportunity to purge the senior military leadership that acted as his bridle.

Last year, Israel acceded to Egyptian requests to amend the military annex to the treaty to allow Egypt to station another 2,500 troops in the demilitarized Sinai. Egpyt never filled the quota and nothing changed, except for the worse. Numerous attacks on the oil pipeline to Israel have occurred. A cross-border terror attack last August left left eight Israeli dead and another in June saw a further Israeli killed.

Now, in the wake of the latest outrage, Egyptian figures are calling for a further revision to permit still more troops. But as the failure to seal the Gaza/Egypt border is one of will, not numbers, Israel would be wise to refuse such requests. To do otherwise would be legitimize a remilitarized Sinai without any corresponding security dividend.

Egyptian forces will be brutal with those who attack them, not Israel. That’s why the Obama Administration’s offer to help Egypt reassert control over Sinai will have no practical impact on the general problem.

Instead, the Arab conflict with Israel is developing a new front in Sinai. Consequent border incidents between Israel and Egypt will heighten tensions and perhaps even one day ignite a war. At that point, no one will ask if the peace treaty remains binding. It is already a husk – and has been for some time.

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  • Schlomotion

    Is Mr. Mandel claiming that Mossad, has not been seeking to abort the Egyptian revolution? The Israeli press sure has. For weeks they have been lamenting that they can't prop up the gelatinous and wrinkled form of Hosni Mubarak to rule for just a few more decades.

    Common sense: Egypt just had a revolution and now they have a new President. Right after his victory, they kill 16 of their own people, steal a personnel carrier and charge into the Sinai "with President Morsi's help?" This is a strategy? Hogwash.

    • http://www.facebook.com/introvert321 Shmuel Malov

      The only problem Morsi might find with what happened is that those terrorists got ahead of themselves and attacked too early. It is doubtful that he was against it.

    • EthanP

      You never give up do you!

    • PaulRevereNow

      You don't take common sense far enough. Common sense: Islamists kill their own people all the time. Just look at whats going on in Syria. So why do you feign surprise that the MB has killed 16 Egyptian soldiers? The article also stated that Morsi has purged the Egyptian military, firing Hussein Tantawi and others, who posed a threat to his authority. Strategy will follow. But when war breaks out, you will say, "This is a war?"

    • Advocatus

      Come on now, Schlomo: on another thread you've just berated Raymond Ibrahim for referring to unsubstantiated accounts of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood having crificified some opponents.

      Fair enough. Yet here you are, spouting yet another inane conspiracy theory involving your favorite "Zionist entity". What's up with that? Clearly, intellectual honesty is very much a one-way street with you.

      Another thing: personal incredulity, fueled by ignorance and extreme ideological bias (To wit: "This is a strategy? Hogwash"), makes for piss-poor argument.

      Now try again.

    • Ghostwriter

      Another day,another anti-Jewish rant from Schlockmoron.

  • Mburu

    why does Hamas call for the worldwide murder of Jews, ???????????

    I m curious to know their reasons!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • http://www.facebook.com/introvert321 Shmuel Malov

      Because their war is not with Israel, it is with the Jews. Israel is just the lightning rod.

    • SKIP

      Because their book says it must be so and not just Israelis, this fatwa goes for all non muslims. As one can easily see, muslims take as much pleasure in killing each other as they do killing non muslims.

    • jacob

      REASONS ??????

      Just read the "Holy" Koran, which ALL MUSLIMS must obey blindly and you'll find the reasons….

      As to the Egyptian-Israeli "Treaty", was it anything but a plain "CEASE FIRE" at best ????

      And now with the Muslim Brotherhood in full power, what is there in store for Israel ????

      I'm afraid ARMAGEDDON is looming in the horizon….

    • Kufar Dawg

      "Allah's Apostle said, ‘You Muslims will fight the Jews till some of them hide behind stones. The stones will betray them saying, "O Abdullah (slave of Allah)! There is a Jew hiding behind me; so kill him."'"

      "Allah's Apostle said, ‘The Hour will not be established until you fight with the Jews, and the stone behind which a Jew will be hiding will say. "O Muslim! There is a Jew hiding behind me, so kill him."'"

      In Sahih Muslim: Book 041, Number 6985:
      Abu Huraira reported Allah’s Messenger (may peace be upon him) as saying: The last hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: Muslim, or the servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him; but the tree Gharqad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews.

    • watsa46

      They refused to acknowledge Mohamed as …. of "god".

  • Mburu

    "On the same day, ELECTED President Morsi also cancelled the constitutional addendum restricting presidential powers that Tantawi and the UNELECTED Supreme Council of the Armed Forces had ILLEGALLY imposed last June.

    • EthanP

      Well said.

  • EthanP

    What no one mentions is that 10 days ago they were saying Morsi had no power, among other negative things. Yet he dismissed the High Command with not a wimper. As to a conflict with Israel. While I have (IMHO) no doubt that Israels destruction is his, as it is for all Islamists, his ultimate goal, he is no fool. Despite all of the M-1 tanks and F-16s the US has given Egypt, there is no question that the qualitative edge in manpower, the true decisive factor in military power, is firmly with Israel. So the MB in the form of Hamas may fire missles and resort to a continuing campaign of terror, but they know beyond doubt the result of a military confrontation with Israel.

  • Andy

    Israel needs not concern itself with Egypt. If they stick to the agreement fine. If they want war, Israel can rout that failed country in a long weekend. What Israel needs to worry about are its own lefties and mentally challenged with the same mentalities some of their forefathers had in Europe in the 1930s who kept saying that Hitler was just posturing, joking. These and their suicide-voter cousins in America who support Obama.

  • Marty

    egypt is a failed state regardless of what ruler is misgoverning it and destroying the economy. It has little to no chance of becoming democratic since every political movement and ideology refuses to disendorse corruption and hatred of Israel as well as its copt minority. Nothing useful comes out of egypt. The place hasn't progressed since islam wrecked the society 1300 years and burned down the library in Alexandria. islam enthusiastically destroys any society it touches and forces it into a primitive mindset.

  • Stan Lee

    Egypt has its internal problems, religious, organizational. governmental, military. One of the traditional methods of forcing unity in a country is by way of nationalism….by way of war.

    • Kufar Dawg

      Or by blaming the Jews…kinda like MuhamMAD did, Hitler did and most every islamic leader the world has ever seen.

  • flowerknife_us

    Israel needs to throw these problems back in the faces of the Egyptians. It is for Egypt to solve as the Treaty stands. Altering the Treaty any more than it has on the part of the Egyptians is unacceptable. It should not be viewed as an act of peace and good will. Force the World body politic to face who is actually at fault.

    Both sides are heavily equipped with American arms. Will the difference between who may actually get re-supplied be as simple as who our next President will be???

  • Drakken

    Egpyt is going back to the dark ages and with 80 million mouths to feed, they will be fed a daily diet of jihad and make no doubt, the muzzys will attack Israel at some point and when they do I hope Israel takes the gloves off and takes the opportunity to push that rats nest called Gaza into the sea and takes the Sinai, then pushes on to Cairo and put all the Imams at their feet where they belong.

  • Raymond in DC

    Egypt's request for 750 troops to be allowed into Sinai to deal with weapons smuggling was just the first of such requests. Not surprisingly, 750 was not enough, so Egypt asked for 750 more. Israel said OK. Funny, things didn't really improve. So now it's a couple of brigades, armored vehicles, gunships and a few fighter jets. Israel hesitates to say No. Now I'm seeing reports of reinforcements *without* Israel's approval.

    The right course of action from the beginning, as now, is to demand that if Egypt is granted more rights in Sinai, so too should Israel. Start with the right to conduct aerial reconnaissance, and the right of "hot pursuit". If remilitarization is permitted, all that will be left of the peace treaty would be Israel's right of free passage through the Suez Canal and Straits of Tiran. For that they gave up the Sinai? And how long until those rights too will be circumscribed?

  • Choi

    Just a REMINDER:



  • Johntyd

    Israel will learn and exercise exponentially the same brutality with which it is faced. That will ensure the 'peace'. When Arabs can no longer wage war and terrorism against Israel with impunity the complexion of this conflict will dramatically change.