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As I noted, though, last year, apart from the tactical level,
gravest of all would be Israel’s radical strategic vulnerability in the situation envisaged by Obama. Even a Palestinian state that more or less complied with “nonmilitarization” could allow—or be forced to allow—Arab armies from the east to traverse the short distance to Israel’s coastal plain, where a mere nine-mile push by a tank force would suffice to sunder Israel and put an end to Jewish sovereignty. Would Israel’s large, capable army be able to stop the invasion? Very likely not—because the bulk of that army consists of reserve forces, which require 48 hours for a full mobilization. An Arab force could cross the West Bank in much less time. Meanwhile the reserve forces rushing along exposed arteries to exposed mobilization centers would be subject to various forms of debilitating fire—very likely including missile barrages from states and terror enclaves bordering Israel.
There is no way to know if a second-term Obama would keep pursuing such a “two-state” vision. The fact that the Palestinians themselves are divided into the two mutually hostile, increasingly separate and distinct entities of the West Bank and Gaza would make a renewed “two-state” push all the more difficult. The fact that the new, Muslim Brotherhood-run Egypt that Obama helped usher into being will likely give state backing to Palestinian anti-Israeli aggression makes such a vision all the more dangerous.
Obama, though, has amassed a track record of hostility to Israel on various fronts, and referring to Israel’s appeals for red lines on Iran as “noise” to be “blocked out” is just the latest instance. Obama’s call last year for an Israeli return to the 1967 lines, and a Palestinian border with Jordan, is an ominous moment that should be borne in mind.
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