The New York Times, the same paper that amnesty-criers blame the conservative media for not listening to, has an extensive analysis of the Hispanic impact on the vote. And no, the election did not hinge on a fundamental change in the national demographics. At least not so far as the Hispanic vote goes.
While the Hispanic vote did increase somewhat nationally, its impact in swing state elections was so limited that Romney would have lost even with the Hispanic vote.
For example, in Wisconsin, 3,056,613 votes were cast, of which 4 percent, or 122,264 votes, were cast by Hispanics according to exit polls. Mr. Obama’s margin of victory in Wisconsin was over 200,000 votes — even if all Hispanics had voted for Mr. Romney instead of voting for Mr. Obama by more than two to one, he would have won the state.
Not unexpectedly, the Hispanic vote was also not decisive in Iowa or New Hampshire where Mr. Obama could have carried the states even if he had won none of the Hispanic vote whatsoever.
In Ohio, where the president received an estimated 54 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to exit poll data, we find he could have won the state with as little as 22 percent of the Hispanic vote, and in Virginia, where he received 64 percent of the Hispanic vote, we find that he could have carried the state with just over 33 percent.
Unless the amnesty-criers can show us how a Republican presidential candidate can score more than 80 percent of the Hispanic vote, something that even Obama couldn’t do, amnesty, in any form, will not swing the election toward the GOP. It will however swing it further to the Democrats.
We can also see major variations in the Hispanic vote between different states indicating that the Latino vote is not so homogenous as experts on both sides would like to think.
In Nevada, Obama went down 5 points among Hispanics. And in most swing states, Obama performed below his national 71 percent share with Latinos. This is significant because it is another reminder that Obama’s base of Latino support comes from blue urban territories.
Obama won 68% of the Hispanic vote in North Carolina, 65% in Wisconsin, 64% in Virginia and 53% in Ohio.
All this is below 71 percent. On the other hand in Arizona, Obama pulled in 76 percent of the Latino vote, 80 percent in Pennsylvania, 81 percent in Illinois and 75 percent in Colorado. But slightly below the national share, at 70 percent in California.
Those demanding an immediate shift in the GOP strategy might do better to look at those number and ask why Romney won 42 percent of the Hispanic vote in Ohio, which Hispanic populations are more favorable to Republicans and what if anything Ohio Republicans were doing differently.
But of course that would involve work and effort. Much easier to call for amnesty.