There is a natural instinct to feel worried when the numbers flash on the big screen and CNN and MSNBC talking heads perkily report that Mitt Romney is behind in the polls because his campaign is one long gaffe and America hates bigots and Mormons. But of course being ahead in the polls is easier when they’re skewed to your party.
From John McLaughlin, a speaker at the Freedom Center’s West Coast Retreat last spring, comes an analysis of just how distorted those polls are. Taking a look at swing state polling, McLaughlin notes that Florida has a 40/42 R/D party registration split but recent media polls have a 6-9 percent tilt toward a Democratic sample.
And what McLaughlin notes is that the rate of bias has increased throughout September to create the fake groundswell of support effect and fears that swing states have turned on Romney.
On September 11 and 12, Democrats were being oversampled by 3 percent. Two days later they were being oversampled by 4 percent. A week later by 5 percent. By September 23rd, they were being oversampled by 6 percent. By the 26th they were being oversampled by 9 percent.
As a result of all that hard work, Obama’s lead increased from 5 percent during a 3 percent oversampling to 9 percent during a 9 percent oversampling suggesting that not only was Obama not gaining, but that he was actually falling behind.