That sizable percent of undecided Jewish voters who broke away from Obama appear to have made a decision.
Romney now leads Obama 44-40 among likely Jewish voters. This is a post-poll debate, so Obama’s loss there was likely a factor, but the large number of undecideds predating the debate suggest that it wasn’t so much Obama’s weak performance as it was Romney’s strong performance.
A few notes. This is a small sample size. Numbers like this may vanish just as quickly as they came, but other polls do suggest that there has been a shift. I wouldn’t bet on Romney winning the Jewish vote straight out, but he’ll probably win more of it than anyone would have expected two months ago. So I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.
Polls of likely voters often tilt Republican because the Democratic base tends to be semi-literate and can barely drag itself to the polling station without free beer and forty interpreters. This is not the case with the Jewish vote where the core of the lefty crowd is prosperous and educated. So if this is an accurate reading of the likely Jewish voter, then that’s big news.
And the defection of the Jewish vote means that Obama has lost every major religion in the country. The Protestant vote is heavily going against him and he’s hanging on to the Catholic vote by a few percent, meaningless within the margin of error. The only religion he’s decisively winning amongst is “No Religion”. I would also assume he’s romping home with the Muslim vote, but unlike Europe, that’s not too much of a factor here yet.