Romney Polling Better Than Reagan With Jewish Voters

Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is a New York writer focusing on radical Islam. He is completing a book on the international challenges America faces in the 21st century.


The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.

While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.

New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.

Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.

The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.

The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.

Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.

A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.

  • nice jewish boy

    when are you going to wake up — the jewish vote is and will remain for ever and ever LIBERAL. Jews regard Republicans as unintelligent, quick to the draw, un-informed — is it any wonder then that Jews always vote ANTI- REPUBLICAN. IN ALL CASES. IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES IN ALL ELECTIONS — please get a grip and face reality- stop trying to confuse the rest of us. Is disheartening to say the truth sometimes but it is more disingenuous to scoop it under the rug!

    • VERYNEAT

      Nonsense. I personally know loads of right wing Jews who vote accordingly.

    • Daniel Greenfield

      I've cited statistics otherwise.

      Republicans, including Reagan, have taken nearly 40 percent of the Jewish vote.

    • גבאי

      It is not clear why you are ranting and railing with such determined, seeming anger here. Greenfield cited statistics – I hope the upcoming election bears them out. For the sake of the USA, and for the sake of Israel, I hope that the current disaster in the White House is soundly defeated in November. I have a hope, buttressed by statistics cited by Mr. Greenfield, that the Jewish vote will not be nearly as pro-B. Hussein as it was in 2008. You capitalized assertions are not as valid as you are shouting them to be: calm down.

      As a fellow Jew, let me say that your name seems a bit inaccurate – you don't write as though you are a particularly NICE Jewish boy, at all.

      • PaulRevereNow

        If you want a good idea of Nice Jewish Boy's mentality, just read some of the criticism of Rabbi Yaakov Rosenblatt's letter to Sarah Silverman. I noticed 384 comments underneath this letter; which is a nice and respectful inquiry into why Ms. Silverman hasn't married, and has such a low opinion of Judaism. But from the inane, low-life, unthinking nature of most of the comments,(mostly coming from Jews), you'd think the good Rabbi was Genghis Khan, come-back-to-life.

        • Daniel Greenfield

          Trash is trash. There's a reason why people would be fans of Sarah Silverman in the first place.

    • PaulRevereNow

      Hey, wise-guy, what about the Republican Jewish Coalition?

    • willing to reflect

      I'm a republican Jew from a family of republican jews…we have analyzed the issues, prioritized their importance and see romney as the most likely to promote a jewish agenda

  • Len

    Jews tend to be Liberals first and blindly move in that direction with the same conviction that believed that Germany with Hitler would never turn against them. That self-destructive tendency is hard to cure. oldocg

  • Elias

    Republican or Democrat do not forget Israel and the President that will look up for the right to exist and to be the only Jewish Nation in the world, taking in consideration that Israel is one of the few True Friends that USA has at this moment.

  • Elazar G

    Salam al-Marayati for the OSCE? By all means, keep supporting Obama fools.

  • Anamah

    We are very fortunate having this man willing to fix our deep problems. Thank you Mitt we appreciate so much you! I am sure must be a sacrifice but hope you will be elected. The best for you and your family friend!

  • http://www.facebook.com/avrohamnissan.benaharon Avroham Nissan Ben Aharon

    A Jew who votes for Obama has no real interesting of Torah and how a Jew must think if their fellow Jews in Israel who are in great danger from Obamas policies.

    • Miriam

      Yes agree. Obama is the worst nightmare for Isral and all the Jews in the world. We from Europe feel now how the terror of muslims .Obama is a muslim and hates the Jews

  • Irma Finkelshtein

    I love you magic negro barak insane obama. I am Jewish doncha know and it's my highest sacred Jewish human right to tear little babies from limb to limb whenever I damx well please. Burn them with a saline solution, millions every year or just cut them into pieces, this is my highest Judaistic principle.
    Well, I'm off to have a nice rest on the beach in Florida.

  • Petros Dratsidis

    Why American Jews vote Democrat? Because they regard the Republicans -wrongly in my opinion- as by far more nationalistic than the Democrats. Don't forget that Jews,over the centuries, have suffered under right wing /nationalistic regimes / governments, especially in Europe.