Lucky for Obama, Florida isn’t a swing state and the Latino vote isn’t a reliable element of the Democratic Party base.
Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points. The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney,
Now traditionally Republicans have won Florida Latinos due to the high percentage of Cubans and other refugees from Socialism living there, but Obama did win them over in 2008.
Obama carried the Latino vote by sizeable margins in all states with large Latino populations. His biggest breakthrough came in Florida, where he won 57% of the Latino vote in a state where Latinos have historically supported Republican presidential candidates (President Bush carried 56% of the Latino vote in Florida in 2004).
So Romney isn’t yet within Bush 04 margins among Florida Latinos, but the immigration of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans into Florida makes that unlikely anyway. And Romney isn’t running off Bush’s patriotism numbers or the resentment toward the Clintons and their goon squad kidnapping of Elian Gonzalez on behalf of Fidel’s regime.
Still he’s got one thing going for him. A sizable percentage of Florida Latinos are rating as unaffiliated and feel alienated by both parties. And Obama seems highly unlikely to hit his old 56 percent.