The Rise of the Saudi Superstate

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The 32nd summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council may be remembered as the dawn of the Caliphate with the Saudi proposal to accelerate the union of the six GCC States likely to dramatically change the region. The union is being described as “EU Style,” but in practice it would be a larger version of the United Arab Emirates, a federation of tribal monarchies.

The combined entity would have a 1 trillion dollar GDP and some 35 percent of the world’s oil reserves, giving it immeasurable influence on the global stage. And that nucleus of power and wealth would be used to consolidate its influence over rest of the region and the world. If the GCC integrates Yemen, it will be able to turn the Persian Gulf into the Arabian Gulf, and if it integrates Libya, Sudan and Iraq, then it will have a combined population of 100 million and be able to approach the 50 percent world oil reserves marker.

Whether or not the GCC can transition to a Muslim EU, in the words of its charter, “founded on the creed of Islam,” is still an open question. In the last five years the GCC has struggled toward adopting a common market and a common currency, its unity undercut by suspicion of the House of Saud and internal rivalries. While Article Four of the GCC Charter had always made unity into a goal of the GCC and previous Riyadh Declarations had called for consolidating their Arab and Islamic identities into a regional union, there was never enough external pressure and internal promise to make that feasible.

Iran’s nuclear program and the Arab Spring have changed all that. Saudi Arabia’s suppression of Shiite protesters in Bahrain was the first significant use of the GCC’s previously inept Peninsula Shield Force. The victory in Bahrain has kept its Sunni monarchy in power and made it dependent on Saudi backing which has also made its officials into the most enthusiastic proponents of the union.

Holding back the Arab Spring in Bahrain was not only a proxy victory against Iran, it also demonstrated that Saudi influence could hold off Western action against GCC members under its umbrella and gave added weight to Saud Al-Faisal’s call for a combined military and foreign policy. Saudi Arabia can offer GCC members the protection of its enormous influence in the West, as well as one of the largest armies in the region, armed and trained by the United States, and an eventual nuclear umbrella.

The Obama Administration has left the nations of the region with very few options. They can either wait for America and Europe to hand them over to the Muslim Brotherhood on a democratic platter. They can become puppets of Iran. They can long for the return of a Turkish Ottoman Empire under the AKP. Or they can look to the Saudis for leadership and aid.

The Arab Spring has set two Caliphate movements on track. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Caliphate which is to consist of the Arab Socialist countries whose governments were overthrown in the Arab Spring, Egypt and Tunisia, and possibly Syria and Libya. And the GCC, a more traditional Caliphate of tribal monarchs with oil wealth.

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  • Larry

    What the vast majority of people are not aware of it that in the not too distant past the Emir of the al Saud was also the Imam of the Wahhabis, so they have a very strong case for the King to become the Caliph under moslem tradition.

    When that happens world politics becomes very, very dangerous, as a Caliph is needed to declare offensive jihad. It is the lack of a Caliph that has seen the ridiculous circumlocutions of various moslem "authorities" claiming prior moslem discovery and settlement of the Americas and Australia, as that justifies defensive jihad to restore previously moslem lands.

  • Chezwick

    There is a theory propounded by some in the anti-Jihad that a reconstitution of the Caliphate will be a good thing…by giving us a tangible enemy to fight (as opposed to amorphous terrorist groups that have no official territorial identity). I personally disagree. I think if the infidel world is today obsequiously validating Islam out of fear (which it obviously is), how much more will we do so when Islam has a unified super-structure.

    We should take a lesson from history; Persia was an invaluable ally in the fight against Ottoman hegemony in the 15the and 16th centuries. Islam's Achilles heal is its confessional schism. If we can just rid Tehran of its Mullahocracy, Iran and Iraq could become natural allies in tying down the future Sunni Caliphate.

    • Larry

      Nah, they only kill each other when killing infidels wholesale isn't on the agenda.

      • Chezwick

        Exactly my point. Confessional hatreds are always on their agenda in Darul Islam….just witness recent events in Iraq, Pakistan, Bahrain and Yemen. Should the Sunni Caliphate by reconstituted, Shia Iran and Iraq will be feeling the heat, due to proximity. They'll be seeking allies wherever they can get them. We could buy time while the two sides dissipate their energies on one another. But of course, this would require enlightened statecraft on our side…things being what they are, in our present state of cluelessness, we'd probably try to mediate.

  • candice michelle

    The US will assess the Saudi positions that come out of the talks before determining whether to launch formal negotiations.

  • H&R_ Barack

    From the 7th century, and to the present, the openly stated goal of Islam is to bring the entire world into Dar Al-Islam, or the "peace" of Islam. This is a clearly defined condition under which no other system is tolerated.

    Unfortunately for Muslims, and considerably more so for the rest of the world, Islam is extremely strict and uncompromising,

    ALL ISLAMISTS ARE Oily mouthed.

  • H&R_ Barack

    RE: "The union is being described as “EU Style,”-

    The transformation of Europe into "Eurabia," –

    Bat Ye'or: 'The universal caliphate stands before us'

    Read more: American Thinker:

  • StephenD

    I would liken the fracture in Islam to a snake wanting to eat its own tail. Eventually, the head wins…but wins what? Evil cannot be self-sustaining in perpetuity. Unlike "Goodness" which can serve itself forever. This ultimate evil perpetrated on human kind called Islam must self-destruct one day. I can only hope sooner rather than later.

    • Shams Zaman

      A comment based on profound ignorance, hate, bigotry and prejudice. Why don't you try to learn something about Islam before making such a sarcastic comment???
      Shams zaman Pakistan.

      • StephenD

        Like the justification for the FOGAL FAMILY MASSACRE?? F**K you Shams….I understand all I need to about your death cult from the pit of hell.

  • Silverio Facundo

    The division of the Arabian peninsula into so many state-nations was actually a European power's puzzle game. Saudis are undistinguishable from yemenis or from qataris or from omanis. They speak the same language, bow to the same perverted god, have the same medieval mentality and live in the same sand-filled hell-holes. These different countries exists because the British authorities accomodated their needs and those of the local chieftains rather than having them fighting it off.

    The only reason these 10-th century misfits make it into the world headlines is their oil. Nothing else of what hey have to offer would allow them to even make it to page 14. Wheteher Saudi Arabia invaded Kuwait or vice-versa would be as relevant and news-noteworthy as the Tutsis and the Hutus at each other throats or as the Bolivia-Chile dispute. Unfortunately "Oil" has such a clout and such power that these petty, backwater chieftains are instantly thrown to the center stage, and together with them they bring their outdated and vile ideologies disguised as a religion. Think that a tutsi chieftain would get such a royal treatment in the world stage? Not a chance!

  • Ain't No Dhimmi

    The" Beat on The Street" is that Obama will be re-elected._So, be aware that if the _"Left's and the State Department's surrender to Islam (Saudi Arabia)"" Wahabbism"_(Freemasonic Rite of Surrender to Islam September 2009 led by Obama)
    IT IS NO COINCIDENCE._That we are starting to feel the effects of Islam via takiya-speak (sanctified lying MSM) in order to put infidels at ease so they do not work to defend themselves from Jihad and Fatwas until it is too late." Moonotheism by Yoel Natan_"Non Muslims need to know that "Holy War" definition. For instance Hitler' s Mein Kampf is often translated into English as "My Struggle." The book resulted in millions of murders meant to speed up the survival of the fittest revolution to the nth degree. Smilarly, Muhammed's "Mein Karoan" and Mohammed's "Struggle" has resulted in many millions of murders in the cause of Allah over fouteen centuries in order to speed along "Dawa" proselytizing and the forced conversion of the human race." Pg 42 Moon-o -theism" by Yoel Notan

  • Schlomotion

    It makes sense to me that the Middle Eastern countries want to federate. The rest of the world is doing it. It makes no sense to prevent it from happening just to suit Israel. Really, they have been trying to do it for over a hundred years.

    • wctaqiyya

      Sure it makes sense to you, but you can think beyond your own nose. Presumably. But, getting groups of people with divergent views to cooperate is infinitely difficult. It is especially difficult when they are illiterate dirt worshipers scrambling for scarce resources. Shoot, the EU failed even with America paying for their defense costs and unobstructed trading routes. Yes, I know they technically still exist as the EU, just stay tuned for a few more months. I won't bother mentioning the UN. The only way the Muslims get their asses organized for sustained expansion is if one nation leads the way with dominating force. That Muzzie nation does not exist. As bad as the European collapse will be, the Muslims are looking at slaughter and starvation. Will Turkey lead them or Iran or Saudi Arabia or Egypt? Nope, not gonna happen. Try as they might, they have no industrial or agricultural base, their oil means little in a global depression and their leadership class is drinking, whoring and gambling in Monaco. Thank you, I always try to look on the bright side of things.

    • ajnn

      "just to suit israel" – ignorance.

      israel is something of a saudi ally these days against the spread of iran.

      and who cares what israel thinks here. is it good for the uniyed states !!! you guys who bring up israel as a p;roblem every time are not dealing with reality. jews do not, in fact, rule the world.

  • Roger

    Why can't we just start drilling and eliminate the economic forces making this important?

    • Looking4Sanity

      Because we might harm a snail darter or inconvenience a spotted owl? That seems to be the consensus on the Left as far as I can tell. Ironically, if our own forefathers had taken that opinion, none of us would even be here discussing this to begin with.

      It's the circular insanity of Utopianism.

      • Roger

        Oh, and because they've already killed on their endangered species so it's all right for them?

        • Looking4Sanity

          I'm not following you on that one. Clarify?

          • ChiTownTom

            L4S…have you made your way to Navy Gentleman's site yet? If you have…sorry for pestering you. If you haven't…check it out. A lot of the old Big site posters are there. check my profile for the link.

          • Looking4Sanity

            Yes, I am aware of his site. I am also aware of who moderates there and who comments there. Suffice it to say that I am not staying away because of the many good posters there, rather because of the half dozen or so rotten eggs that have infested the place. If I were coming over, I would have done it long ago.Telle est la guerre.

          • ChiTownTom

            Sorry to hear that…thanks for the reply.

          • Looking4Sanity

            Nothing personal against you, Tom. I miss talking to a lot of the people posting there…just not enough to subject myself to the aforementioned rotten eggs who shall remain nameless. They know who they are. Let them rejoice in my absence. I'm happier pretending they don't exist either.

          • ChiTownTom

            I totally understand. There are enough people over there now you could probably slip in and say hello to the folks you miss now and then and easily ignore the rest. But again, I understand why you would rather not cross that bridge. Best of luck…

          • Roger

            We protect endangered species, they couldn't care less.

            Why that makes it all right to buy their oil, I don't have a clue.

          • Looking4Sanity

            Ah…a statement on liberal hypocrisy expressed in two separate thoughts. I understand perfectly now. Thanks for explaining. I never understood hypocrisy. No wonder I was confused.I think that the answer is that they care more about their misguided and perverted sense of “social justice” than they do about the prosperity and security of their own country. Viewed through their myopic lens it is not hypocrisy. I still can't figure out how they come to the erroneous conclusion that it is patriotism though.Most proglibs have never “progressed” far enough down the road to arrive at the intersection of passion and reason. They've spent their entire lives hanging out on emotional avenue.

  • wctaqiyya

    Mr. Greenfield, when you say if the Saudis can control the Shiite Muslims in Iran , Iraq and elsewhere they can control the gulf region and form a Saudi super-state. Oh my. Isn't that like saying if Germany can control Russia, France and England it can dominate Europe? I don't think that worked out too well. Pardon me, but your underlying assumptions are a bit far-fetched. First, the vaunted military prowess of Saudi Arabia is a myth. Sure, they have lots of pretty, shiny planes but can their pilots fly them and can their mechanics maintain them? Maybe. Even so, can they challenge Iraq or Iran on the battlefield? Most certainly not. You also give too much weight to Saudi oil. In the next few years, as vast new reserves of gas and oil from the South Caucasus, Mediterranean Sea, the U.S. gulf, Canada, Colorado, Montana, the South China Sea and Eastern Europe will flood the market and the Saudi economy will be seen for the one trick pony it is. Will the Saudis eat their oil, spend their cash on weapons or buy food? Either way, they won't be conquering very much and if they want Muslim allegiance, they will need to feed the masses of Arab, Turk and Persian Muslims, few of whom can feed themselves. How much will it cost to feed Egypt, Sudan, Syria, etc.? Europe will barely be feeding itself after it's imminent crash and the U.S. will be sending it's extra food to Japan and China. The Arabs will starve. And the Arabs will be fighting each other, as they have always done. The previews of this coming upheaval are in front of us. Brewing civil war in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan and elsewhere. The Arabs will not unite, they will kill each other for food, fuel and tribal and sectarian reasons. They cannot unite Mr. Greenfield, Iran opposes Saudi Arabia and never the twain shall meet. Turkey opposes Iran and will not allow the Saudis to dominate it's neighborhood. Egypt needs to import food and cannot fight Israel alone. Thus, there will be no unified Muslim alliance. Turks, Persians and Arabs just don't mix, not to mention their lessor, but fanatically held sectarian differences. There will be armed conflict, starvation and the Muslim states will slowly subside back to the lethargy of the seventh century. Which is right where they belong. Sure, the Saudi princes are building mosques in Africa and Indonesia today. But tomorrow, they will burn. Cheers.
    I like having an opinion, but it's possible my opinion is less than perfectly accurate. So, please be gentle.

  • mrbean

    He is right when he says "The Obama Administration has left the nations of the region with very few options. They can either wait for America and Europe to hand them over to the Muslim Brotherhood on a democratic platter. They can become puppets of Iran." Either way the whole middle east becomes unstable with normally warring Muslim factions uniting against Israel and that drags the US in militarily.

  • Ian Oz

    To me it proves that we should move away from an oil based fuel ecomony as fast as we can. No oil == no money therefore no power

    • Mark

      =no industry, no food, no transportation, noheat, no light. NO FREEDOM.

  • RiverRat2U

    I am all confused. I thought the New World Order was going to solve all these petty problems in the Middle East and we would be one big old happy family.

    • Marjorie

      This is just hilarious, isn't it!!!
      This new world ord just can't make up it's mind. Will it be islam or people free to choose who they will worship or not. Who do you suppose will win out!! Perhaps Jesus. How about that!!!!

  • moshe

    I find it difficult to believe that the GCC can integrate Yemen, much less Iraq. At best, they might be able to finance some kind of breakaway Sunni state in al-Anbar. In fact, the only real "integration" possibility for the GCC is one you did not mention — Jordan.

  • irish

    This is not a good time to try to rebulid the persian empire have you seen how pissed of the Greeks are right now?

    • marjorie

      Well, the Greeks are broke, broke, broke!!