War in the Gulf

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If a war begins in the neighborhood of the Persian Gulf, it will likely have less to do with a slugging match between Israel and Iran, than a simmering Sunni-Shiite war that is about to flare up into regional violence through a combination of factors dating back decades and recent events in the region.

The rise of a fanatically violent Shiite Islamist state has done more to destabilize the region than anything else. As much as Sunni Arabs prattle on about Zionist conspiracies, a few million Jews sandwiched in a narrow strip of land against the Mediterranean are no threat to them. But a rival version of Islam that is spearhead by a non-Arab ethnic group and placed at the service of a powerful military machine and an oil economy is what keeps them up at night.

The fall of Saddam put Iraq up for grabs and raised the prospect of a Shiite superstate with a vast military and massive oil reserves. It also tipped Syria and its leftover Baath Party run by a variant Shiite sect directly into Tehran’s paws. Add nuclear weapons to the Iran-Iraq-Syria trinity and you are looking at the worst nightmare of every Sunni Arab prince living in polished oil mansions near what he still insists on calling the Arabian Gulf.

A Shiite superstate will checkmate the Sunni oil monarchies and leave them no choice but to beg America to garrison them with so many troops, air bases and nuclear missiles that they might as well be the 51’st through 59th states. Using foreign soldiers to protect themselves isn’t all that objectionable to the fat lazy oil monarchies who already use armies of foreigners to do everything for them. But the American troops who saved the Saudis and Kuwaitis from Saddam also gave Bin Laden a pretext for turning the conflict on its axis.

The Gulf Sunni Arab princelings know that a massive infusion of American troops will bring out more Bin Ladens, and even the American military hierarchy which knows to salaam to the princes will lose patience fast when the Khobar Towers bombing repeats itself enough times. Americans fighting their own people will quickly turn their countries into another Afghanistan. On top of that the Americans won’t stay there forever.

The Gulfies could develop competent armies, but no Muslim state trusts its own military. If all those billions and billions in state of the art American military equipment were put into the hands of competent generals, instead of the cousins and nephews of the royal family, then very shortly the generals would be running the country. And even if they could trust the generals, the locals have no reliable military tradition except as caravan raiders and have gotten a little too used to the good life to fight for any other reason than an outburst of Koranic fanaticism by the third son of the family.

The Persians have a long proud military tradition. The Egyptians and the Syrians picked up something from their European colonizers. But the Gulfies are not good for much except beating their Filipino maids and getting high on hashish and blowing themselves up to get to paradise. The Iranian military even in its current state would clean their clocks faster than you could say, Alakazam and they know it.

What the Gulfies lack in military skills, they more than make up for in underhanded cunning. If they can’t import an infidel army and they can’t build their own army, then they will follow the honorable tradition of finding a counterbalance to the enemy. The Gulfies have been nurturing the Muslim Brotherhood and funding Al-Jazeera. Combine the two with an American administration eager to win over the Muslim world by reforming American foreign policy and the Gulfies got their own Arab Spring.

The real purpose of the Arab Spring was to create a Sunni Islamist superstate or regional alliance to counter the threat of a Shiite Islamist superstate. With the Muslim Brotherhood sweeping across North Africa all the way to Egypt, the harvest includes semi-secular states with competent armies and if Syria can be tipped into that camp, then Iran will lose its puppet and the Sunni superstate will have a military tipped with top of the line American and Russian equipment, funded by Gulfie oil money and backed by the lunatic fanaticism of Islamist fighters.

With America in decline, the Gulfies touched off the Arab Spring to create Janissary armies, but this time composed of devout Muslims, to keep the Shiites at bay. Iran pushed back contesting Saudi influenced territory in Bahrain and the Emir of Qatar is demanding that his slaves in Washington get cracking and “liberate” Syria for membership in the Sunni Caliphate.

That just leaves one wild card. Not Libya, which has been swung into the Sunni Islamist camp the hard way with NATO jets and Libyan Islamic Fighting Group terrorists. Not Turkey, which has repressed the last of its secular military, and is now pushing for Sunni regime change in Syria. The regional wild card is the only non-Muslim state in the area. Israel.

The theological relationship of Sunni and Shiite Islamists to Israel is murderous. The ascendance of Mohammed and the triumph of his Caliph successors was supposed to put an end to an independent Jewish existence. The triumph of Islam was directly measured through the subjugation of Christians and Jews. As the more apocalyptic of the duo, the Shiites would like to wipe Israel out to showcase their own private little armageddon. Turning the Jewish state into dust, or at least its inhabitants, would help lock in their case to being the rightful successors of their genocidal prophet who had purged the Jews from his part of the desert.

The Sunnis tend to be more patient. They want Israel gone, but they also recognize it as a valuable pawn in their own games. Rather than being a disruptive influence on the region, like Iran, it’s a unifying force that gives Muslims a common enemy and a common aspiration. Israel is a theological enemy, but useful in practice. And whatever happens they cannot allow the Shiites to wipe it out. Like comic book supervillains, they have to be the one to kill the superhero or their existence is meaningless.

Whoever is blowing up Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities, it isn’t likely to be roving teams of Mossad agents, most likely it’s Iran’s own internal divisions being exploited by some combination of Western intelligence, Israeli intelligence and the intermediaries between the local Iranian opponents of the regime carrying out the attacks and foreign intelligence agencies who are almost certainly Iran’s own neighbors.

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  • 9-11 Infidel

    That was pretty good. I have my own theory about the Sunni-Shia rift. I don't believe that Iran will hit the Israelis first. I believe they want to lead the Muslim world and to do that, they will have to destroy the guardians of the two holy cities first. Once the Saudis are blown away, the rest of the Muslim world will fight under the banner of Iran and march on Jerusalem. Iran wants to be the head of the 6th Khalifa. They will usher in their Mahdi with a Shia nuclear war against Sunni Arabia…whom they resent…and when the world turns against them, they will gather their army, and the armies of the Muslim world and wage a conventional war on Israel. What was the popular chant in Tahir Square? "To Jerusalem we march, martyrs by the millions". What does anyone not take them seriously? Or what?

    • drtruth

      Very possible scenario. The other possibility is that Iran will in fact attack Israel first because either an attack on any of the gulf states or Israel would involve an American response but a successful attack on Israel with an attempt at invasion by Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would surround the gulfies on all sides which may force their submission. This would also tie up the USA which may find it more difficult to fight on so many fronts. Personally I think that if Iran initiates any attack it will gp for broke and attack the US home land as well. News reports have indicated the presence of HeZbollah in cuba and Niciruagua. As well there is an alliance between Venezuela and Tehran. Russia could be dragged in as well since they are a strong ally and supporter of the Iranian regime and are facillitating their acquiring a nuke. So their seems to be a greater chess match going on but I wouldn’t bet on a Sunni – Shiite war which would weaken Iran and put a strain on their ability to form a Shiite caliphate.

  • http://www.contextflexed.com Flipside

    Getting the Israeli Pontius Pilate Argument in extra early this war?

  • http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/ JasonPappas

    This raises an important question. What is our role? We have troops in the gulf and we positioned ourselves along the Sunni-Shiite fault lines in Iraq and Afghanistan. The American people, both left and right, are getting tired of policing these savages. Do we want to be on the tripwire that brings us into the heart of this conflict?

    We already demonstrated our military superiority. Our ability to use nukes is on the record. If we are not in the region, it will be clear to both sides that they do not want us back as an enemy. In this lull we should remove ourselves from the middle of this Islamic civil war.

    Keeping Iran from getting the bomb is as far as we should go. Once Iran has it, Saudi Arabia will get it from Pakistan. Pulling out then will look weak. We can leave now without looking weak.

    Let the new Egyptian Islamic government protect their fellow Sunni Muslims in the Gulf. If Syria falls into the Sunni camp it can join with Egypt to position forces on the Sunni side of the fault line. Of course, they'll fight with Iran over Iraq … but we'll be gone. Everything will be back to normal. Let's get out now … it's going to blow.

    • Tabris

      Hi JasonPappas

      What do you think the real reason is we are meddling in the Middle East? OIL is what we need because without it we would have our own civil war in the US in no time. Therefore we can only pull out of the Middle East if we are oil independent. Each time you fill up your car we need to stay a little longer, with more lost lives and creating a larger deficit. Do your own contribution and get rid of your oil slurping clunker and get an electric car. If everybody that has fear of the spread of Islam in America did this, we would become independent of the middle east and could let them do whatever they want. If the Shia and Sunnies start their war now, that would be at this moment a disaster for the US too.
      Jason, don't you feel guilty each time you pay at the pump knowing that some of this money goes to the jihadist to terrorize us, colonize us or to enforce sharia law on us?

      The prerequisite for being able to pull out of the Middle is to become independent of their oil. Each and every one of you reading this article and agreeing that we have no business in this wasp nest can do something about this themselves by obtaining electric transportation. Not doing so would make you a hypocrite.

      • http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/ JasonPappas

        China buys twice the oil that we do from Saudi Arabia. China also buys oil from Iran. We buy little of the oil from Iraq. So why are we putting our men and women at risk? We will soon be a net exporter of gasoline and fuel according to the Wall Street Journal (Nov. 30, 2011)

        I argued that we can withdraw support of Saudi Arabia in my article here: http://libertyandculture.blogspot.com/2005_06_01_

      • Becca

        Except, you need oil to produce electricity.

      • Becca

        Don't you know that you need oil to produce electricity?

  • Indioviejo

    It is a very convincing explanation of what is happening in that Muslim region of the world.
    We should avoid involvement unless it is to deny nuclear weapons to both sides, because we have no friends there, just enemies. Granted, we have to prioritize these bad actors, but it needs to be done if we are to survive as a nation. Islam is an existential threat, be it Sunni or Shiite.

  • BLJ

    Good article. The idea of any of these lunatics having a nuke is frightening. It would be nice if they could just kill each other off.

    The world would be a better place and these savages would not be missed.

    • mlcblog

      That is one argument for us staying out of it and developing our own oil here. Left to themselves, they endlessly squabble and keep their own population down and inhibit their own abilities to develop anything, let alone nuclear capacity that will work.

  • ObamaYoMoma

    The solution is not very complicated. We are already out of Iraq. Let's get out of Afghanistan ASAP. The last thing we should do is negotiate, as both sides are our enemies. Let the jihad between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban resume. Indeed, Muslim on Muslim violence is good for us and bad for them.

    Next, oust the ruling Mullah regime in Iran and destroy their nuclear weapons program. Then get the hell out of Dodge ASAP.

    Coerce or use force – whatever it takes – to confiscate the Saudi owned nuclear weapons arsenal in Pakistan and destroy the Pakistan nuclear weapons program. Then again get the hell our of Dodge ASAP

    Outlaw Islam and ban and reverse mass Muslim immigration with all of its excess baggage ASAP. Zero Muslim stealth jihadists living in America as a fifth column will equal zero probability of violent jihad attacks and at the same time also eliminate non-violent jihad. Thus, we could use the hundreds of billions of dollars we currently waste annually to provide a false sense of security to get our financial house back in order.

    Seize and occupy the Mideast oilfields and confiscate the unearned oil wealth of the Saudis and the Gulf State Emirs, not out of greed, but instead in self defense, because they are already using those resources and assets to wage a permanent and perpetual stealth global jihad against us and all non-Muslim unbelievers in the world.

    Last, isolate the Islamic world from the West. Since without the West the Islamic world is incapable of producing anything on its own other than murder, rape, torture, mayhem, and lots and lots of misery, the Islamic world will inevitably devolve into abject poverty. Then let them stew for a few generations until the totalitarian ideology of Islam becomes discredited and destroyed.

    All Islamic countries and all Muslims in the world are our enemies. No exceptions. If they are not our enemies, then they are not Muslims at all, but blasphemous apostates instead that per the dictates of MAINSTREAM ORTHODOX ISLAM must be executed.

    • drtruth

      Brilliant. This is what I have been saying all along. Stop all the nation building. Just keep reducing their military capability to sticks and stones and imprison the entire muslim cult in their own countries so the only ones they can kill are themselves. Better them then us. Israel should expel everyone of them and create whatever defensible borders that it deems appropriate for themselves to protect their country. They are already erecting a wall in Sinai. Get rid of all the arabs in the territories (the so called Palestinians who r also all terrorists) stand back and watch all these sick sub human psychos eliminate themselves. I’ll supply the popcorn.

  • UCSPanther

    Sounds like another fine day in Middle Eastern politics…

  • koran kid

    There is the spoilt children syndrome. They crave attention. Any action must be lateral and measured, or even random. At the moment, things are going the only way they can, and this seems a fair analysis of the likely outcome. In which case find a country with a big army that no one likes to mess with, and hunker down. That used to be America!

  • Yeshayahu Goldfeld

    The West is superior in all respect to the billion and a half hate crazed Muslims posing danger around the globe. It is the serf-like timidity of Western politicians and the colossal stupidity of so called Western intellectuals which encourage the Muslim murderers to attack everywhere .

  • Tabris

    "It is the serf-like timidity of Western politicians and the colossal stupidity of so called Western intellectuals which encourage the Muslim murderers to attack everywhere . "

    The above statement makes it exactly why we are not superior.

  • Debanjan Banerjee

    Another example of simple minding American thinking.

    One thing all of you are missing.

    It is seemingly very simple-minded from you. You believe Muslims are so foolish that they will continue to kill each other as long as the West wants them to do so.

    You are forgetting one key aspect here. The same civil war can very quickly move into America.

    Remember America have got a ruling and fast-shrinking Anglo-Saxon elite and a fast-growing and impoverished Hispanic minority . None of them can withstand each other.

    The wars that you think can continue to simmer on in the Muslim World can very similarly can raise its head here in America.

  • Havoc29

    This was a very interesting article. I had always thought Mossad was behind the deaths of the Iranian nuke scientists, but to think it could be Sunnis or foreign hit men paid by Sunnis is very intriguing.
    Hey, I'm all for a Sunni-Shia war. I'm not worried about the oil, they both need it to fund their war machines. So let these incompetents bleed themselves white (I think back to the Iran-Iraq war in which they each lost hundreds of thousands in a war of attrition). So, by all means, let these backwards animals kill each other off.

  • MartinTimothy

    The Koran condemns "schismatics" who go on with "Sunni" this or "Shia" that .. I wanna see where this wanker has "cast truth at falsehood," according to the following stricture in the Koran..

    In the name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful
    Cast truth against falsehood
    The Koran: Chapter 21, verse 18

    60,000 or so Jews failed to turn up for work at the WTC, 11 September 2001, whence allegedly hijacked aircraft, were flown into the World Trade Center in New York, in an attack blamed on Arabs, which became the impetus for the current wars against all and sundry, in the name of the War on Terror!

    Mossad agents filming the drama amid “evident Jewbilation,” and Put Options on airline stocks, that made hundreds of millions traced to Mossad HQ in Yisrael, says Jews did it.
    http://s60.radikalsp@m/i169/1003/f7/5dbc426c4403…. .. Cruise Missile slamming into the Pentagon, in an attack blamed on a crazy Arab in a Boeing 757, http://s014.radikalsp@m/i329/1102/51/ee7df9707ac5… .. a guided missile at the WTC on 911

    All Persian, Iranian, Middle Eastern, Indonesian, and the Atalanta and Chicago False Moslem congregations in the United States, are unbelievers of the worst kind, for similarly failing to "cast truth," in a matter of such vital importance as illegal war!

    Agriculture, writing, and the domestication of animals, all originated in the Tigris Euphrates region called Iraq, the tribes that have been located there since the time of Adam, are the Sunni, the Shia are every one else!

    The Sunni are often don’t do the manual chores, so they have been bringing in workers from other places for centuries, these workers do not usually attend Sunni mosques, which are most often built and maintained by a single extended family.

    They usually attend to their religious affairs, in Mosques that are located in working class areas of the city, that have become known as Shia Mosques.

    At no time has war or conflict between the two sectors of society, been permitted, either under secular law, or within the strictures of Islam, and all parties are aware, that murder is met with speedy and deadly retaliation, according to the instruction in the Koran!

  • Ghostwriter

    Again,another creepy insight into the world of hana from his/her favorite website. You must have been happy when 9/11 happened. All those innocent Americans dead or dying. Must have made your heart happy,didn't it?