In time for Christmas, the National Intelligence Council is predicting that Islamic terrorism will come to an end by 2030. And that seems reasonable. What room will there be for headchopping barbarians in the enlightened world of tomorrow where food comes in pill form, flying cars take you around the country in a minute and everyone follows international law? By 2034, the last murder will have taken place and by 2042, a scientific cure will be found for crime. By 2051, even bad thoughts will have been eliminated.
In the real world, by 2030, there will be countless emirates, many no more than small terrorist groups, but some of which control sizable territories. Mali shows us how a dedicated Islamist militia backed by oil money can create its own Afghanistan. And once it has its emirate, then like any good bunch of robber barons, the Islamist militia will take a cut of the drug trade, kidnap foreigners for ransom and shake down the international community for foreign aid.
By 2030 there will be a hundred miniature Afghanistans across Africa and the Middle East, with peacekeeping forces composed of a combination of local militaries and NATO troops trying to push them out. There will be drones over the skies of a hundred deserts fighting Toyota pickup trucks with bands of hooded men firing machine guns. There will be wire transfers from a dozen Islamic finance institutions wending their way from the great oil economies of the Persian Gulf, and American soldiers, most of whom will have more in common with the special forces operator than the infantryman, who have never seen a conventional war fought in their lifetime, heading in on another rescue mission in the territory of a Terror Emirate.
By 2030, Europe will have an even bigger gap between the rich and the poor. Terrorism will be fought with surveillance cameras, DNA banks, numberless informants, some of whom may be double agents, constant technological innovations, many of them imported from the otherwise verboten Jewish State, and federalized police forces that are hard to distinguish from a police state. The new police state will be able to access the entire contents of any computer or mobile device at a click. Even speech that is still permitted today will lead to prison sentences at worst or at best, mandatory reeducation at special centers organized to combat extremism.
The bombs will still keep going off, but they will be a nuisance. Europeans will learn to adapt to the occasional suicide bombing the way that Israelis have. A bomb will go off, the survivors will be carted away to be treated by nationalized medical staff from the same religion as the bombers, who will occasionally help the bombers finish the job, the broken glass will be swept away and the television channels and newspapers will prominently feature the half-hearted condemnation of a local cleric.
The No-Go Zones will turn into emirates. The authorities will make deals with the local gangs, who will act as Islamist militias. There will be lashes and honor killings in the formal setting of Islamic law and no one will pay attention. Urban and suburban enclaves will become indistinguishable from Gaza. By 2030 the first crude homemade rocket, made with plans offered on the Internet, may rise into the Parisian sky aimed at the Eiffel Tower.
By 2030 there will be more Muslims in the United States than there are now in France. There will be at least one congressman who who openly announces that his program is to implement full Islamic law. There will be at least one Muslim cabinet member in every single administration, regardless of party. The Muslim liaison may even be promoted to full Czar in charge of Muslim relations.
Like Europe, the United States will operate a paranoid surveillance state that its critics decry, even while both the state and its critics support the Muslim immigration that makes such a surveillance state mandatory. And to remind everyone of that there will be occasional terrorist attacks, some thwarted, some not, including possibly one big one, when an Islamist terrorist group finally gets its hands on chemical or nuclear weapons from Egypt, Pakistan, Syria or the country formerly known as Saudi Arabia.
The America of 2030 will operate on the contradictory paradigms of Muslim affirmative action and Muslim wars. It will spend nearly as much trying to buy off Muslims as it will spend on trying to kill their terrorists. Half its intellectual capital will be sunk into praising Islam while the other half will be spent trying to find more elegant ways to kill Muslim terrorists. Homo Americanus circa 2030 will be a veteran of two dozen wars in the Muslim world and two-hundred Muslim affirmative action programs. By 2030 the best way to get a job in the lagging American economy will be to be a Muslim.
The Russia of 2030 will be a Eurasian Empire that will incorporate Islam on equal terms with the Russian Orthodox Church. Muslims will be encouraged to think of Eurasia as their Caliphate and it will enforce Islamic law with its own religious police. The Eurasian Union will be a decaying lawless territory run by warlords who pay tribute to the head warlord in Moscow. Some of those warlords will be Christian and some Muslim. In the cities they will look like the mafia and in the rural territories they will look like feudal lords.
The Western leaders of 2012, like their ancient Roman counterparts, have come to admire the virtues of the savage more than the virtues of their own civilization. By 2030 it will be clearer than ever whether the outcome of their halfhearted campaigns to civilize the savages with doses of democracy and civic institutions will have led to civilized savages or the savaging of civilizations.
Is this world of 2030 inevitable? Not at all, but considering current trends and policies, it is a far more likely outcome than the end of Islamic terrorism.
In 1969, John Lennon and Yoko Ono put up billboards with the message, “War is Over! If you want it” to protest against the Vietnam War. That’s the magical thinking policy that Washington, DC runs on now and the National Intelligence Council, under the Director of National Intelligence, who deleted any mention of Al Qaeda from the Benghazi talking points, reflect that magical thinking.
Will Islamic Terrorism end by 2030? It can if we want it to. There are two sure ways to end a war; either by winning it or by losing it. The world’s most famous cokehead and mental patient duo meant the latter when they offered their Viet Cong Christmas greeting, but winning wars is still an option. It just isn’t the option that we’ve chosen. The hearts and minds way of war will take us to the 2030 that you have just read about.
Islamic terrorism can be over by September 12, 2030 if we decide to fight it the way that most of us thought we would on September 12, 2001. We can give our children and grandchildren the gift of a world without Islamic Terrorism. Or we can give them another 18 years of Islamic terror.
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