If Jordan Falls

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The “Arab Spring” revolutions seem to have bypassed the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan – at least for the time being. But for King Abdullah II of Jordan the long-term survival of his throne and that of the Hashemite monarchy is becoming more questionable.  Jordan, a British creation, has never been an organic state but rather, is a concoction of Bedouin tribes and Palestinians, who by some estimates, comprise 70% of the population.  It is therefore logical to assume that it may be just a matter of time before Jordan becomes a Palestinian State.

At this juncture in world history, it is imperative that the U.S. and its Western allies begin to examine the possibility of a Palestinian State with its capital being Amman. “Jordan is Palestine,” is not merely a slogan but rather the only realistic solution to the Arab (Palestinian)-Israeli conflict.  Unlike the West Bank and Gaza, which are simply too small to contain a Palestinian population reputed to be nearly 4.3 million. Jordan’s 89,342 square kilometers, more than four times the size of Israel’s 20,770 square kilometers, would afford the Palestinians more than sufficient space and, some natural resources.

The Jordan River is and should be the natural border between the Palestinians and Israel – one that would provide security for Israel and allow the Palestinians to militarize.  A militarized Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza, which is inevitable, would constitute a serious threat to Israel. Moreover, a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza would naturally attract irredentist elements amongst the Arabs in Israel’s Galilee that would further complicate the prospects of peace and security for Israel.

The two-state solution in the territory west of the Jordan River is a prescription for perpetual conflict between Arab-Palestinians and Jews.  The close proximity of the Samaritan hills – which the Palestinians will claim – to Israel’s population centers and the Ben-Gurion International Airport, poses an existential threat to the Jewish State. Rather than have two people fighting over one small parcel of land, Arab-Palestinians and Jews would be able to share the historic land mass of Palestine the way it was before the British cut off its eastern portion in 1922 – east of the Jordan River – to establish the Emirate of Trans-Jordan, later to be known as the Hashemite Kingdom.  Poetic justice and fairness would place Eastern Palestine, now called Jordan, in Palestinian hands, and Israel would retain Western Palestine.  Arab residents of the Palestinian cities in the West Bank and Gaza will be part of the Palestinian State, and the Jordan River will separate the two states.

Dr. Larbi Sadiki, a senior lecturer on Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter wrote in Al-Jazeera (February 25, 2012) “What is most striking about Jordan’s durable pro-reform rioting, however, is its polyphony.  Amid such noise, disunited tribes, Islamists, students, retired army officers, and former establishment figures are united in their cry for greater freedom and reform of the decaying monarchy.  Jordan’s ‘Arab Spring’ remains a long way away, but the protest current that has taken root refuses to fade away until the king and queen do more than sell hope, image, and rhetoric.”

The defining element of dissent in Jordan is the growing dissatisfaction by the Bedouin tribes — long the bedrock of support of the royal regime, who are now in support of reform.  The decentralized nature of the anti-government protest makes dissatisfaction difficult to contain; the esteem of the royal couple once considered as sacrosanct as that of the late King Hussein’s, is diminishing.  There are republican sentiments expressed openly, and former establishment figures have taken an anti-establishment posture, demanding liberalization and an end to corruption.

The restive Palestinians in Jordan, cognizant of the Arab Spring and its impact in Egypt, Tunisia, and possibly Syria, where dictatorial and corrupt rulers have been overthrown by the people, are seeking a more open and fair society, and a democracy.  The Palestinians, more so than the Bedouin tribesmen, are alienated from King Abdullah, whose mother was British.  They have little loyalty towards the monarchy, especially for their Westernized king.

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  • davarino

    I was wandering when Jordan was going to have their "arab spring". Now the islamic nations will be united and run by islamists. Now the arab nations cant claim ignorance to sponsoring terrorism, because they will be governed by terrorists.

    • Snorbak

      I wouldnt worry too much about Jordan, sooner of later they will be stupid enough, along with Egypt & Syria, & have another crack at Israel & that will be the end of Jordan.

  • Leon

    My guess is that quite a number of people have a very vague and imprecise idea about the meaning of the word “Palestinians” which varies a lot from one person to another.

  • Schlomotion

    "At this juncture in world history, it is imperative that the U.S. and its Western allies begin to examine the possibility of a Palestinian State with its capital being Amman."

    Thus Puder begins his argument on behalf of ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by setting the stage to construe their forced deportation as an inevitability and by performing pro bono geopolitical analysis for the bedouins. This runs a risk however. By bringing to light this astroturf group JONA, people are going to get confused between it and hate group JONAH:

  • SweetBillM

    With their many faults, the Monarchs of the Islamic world provided a more just society than the republics that followed. The United States harms itself with the traditional disdain for the monarch. In the chaos of
    Syria, it is difficult to conceive, but would not the restoration of the Monarch be a better way than the current bloodshed? And do consider Iran.

  • stevefraser

    Perhaps the USA discouraged Israel from pushing the obvious: the natural Palestinian state is Jordan….Also, weren't the Sept /// terrorists in the 1970's motivated by the Palestinian peoples expulsion from Jordan?

    • Zionistlibertarian

      It's actually the other way around. The expulsion of Palestinians from Jordan was triggered by Black September.

  • Zionistlibertarian

    Ariel Sharon once said that Israel was mistaken to have supported the Hashemite monarchy during Black September. He said that Israel should've supported the P.L.O. I think a Palestinian state East of the Jordan, even one that is heavily militarized, Islamic fundamentalist, fanatical, radical, etc. would be much easier for Israel to defend itself against, than "peaceful" demilitarized state West of the Jordan. Let the Palestinians have their state on the East Bank. Let them make constant war against Israel to their hearts' content. It would be more difficult for them to fire rockets across the Jordan Valley or the Dead Sea. Israel could easily retaliate with less world condemnation, because they wouldn't have to invade the East Bank, just constantly bomb it. If they provoke Israel enough, Israel could establish a security zone on the East Bank and then withdraw and return as needed. The dynamic would be different from Israel's security zone and then withdrawal from Lebanon, because of the Valley and Dead Sea. There would also be less pressure on Israel to establish a Palestinian state.

  • Dispozadaburka

    I think that Jordan should ask all of their fellow muslim oil rich countries to participate
    in building a wonderful city for the Palestinians in Jordan,
    which is actually their main geneological root.

    That way they can live in paradise with their 'brothers" in complete harmony of Sharia Law.

    There really isn't any reason for war.

    If the muslims really wanted to help the Palestinians (their muslim brothers)
    they have more than enough money and people to do so.
    But the fact is that in Islam
    Jews. Christians and any others who don't submit are not allowed to own land.

    Dhimmi, Dhimmi
    Who be daDhimmi

  • vinni gambini

    Double Bamboozle!
    The so called Palestinians are no more from Palestine as the self appointed Hashemite King is from Jordan.

    Circa 1900's these self appointed Hashemites were transferred from Southern Saudi Arabia in a British/Saud deal to then Trans-Jordan.

    That's what makes this musical chairs nonsense a Double Bamboozle.

    • Abisja

      Yes vinni, you are quite right – and who carries the blame for this blunder to this day – THE BRITS – because they refused to carry out what was decided by the Balfour Declaration,condoned by the League of Nations on July 24, 1922. Come 1939 in a white paper Britain stated that a Jewish State was no more part of British policy. "Musical Chairs" the Brits are masters of this game – ask the Transvaal and Free State Republics in Southern Africa around the 1900's about this. Then it was gold and diamonds; in 1939 it was oil. Shame on you Britannia – "no more ruling the waves" – WHY? -by your own nonsensical, tunnel visioned choices.

  • Ronald Johnston

    The whole world will eventually have to join in eliminating islam. Every conflict in the world today is caused by these radical people!!!!

  • Zionistlibertarian

    How's this for a two-state solution? A Palestinian state in Northern Jordan and a Hashemite/Bedouin state in Southern Jordan. Or how about demanding that Saudi Arabia withdraw from the Hejaz, which is "illegally occupied" Hashemite territory?