Decision Time in Iowa

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The polls now consistently show Gingrich in fourth in Iowa. He is in second nationally but the results out of Iowa will probably change that. The latest American Research Group poll is more favorable to Gingrich, having him only one point behind Santorum and two behind Paul. He has taken a much sharper tone against Romney now and says, “Here is my simple tag line: Somebody who will lie to you to get you to be president will lie to you when they are president.”

Almost all of the polls show Rick Perry in fifth place in the state. He is going after Santorum now as a “serial pork barrel earmarker” and he is criticizing him for voting eight times to raise the debt ceiling. The Perry campaign has put together an ad calling him “unelectable” and Perry says, “This guy has proven that he can’t win races when it matters against a liberal Democrat.” It is hard to see how Perry survives a fourth place finish, but one poll had him in third place, one ahead of Gingrich and only one behind Santorum.

Michele Bachmann won the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll, briefly bringing her into the top-tier, but now she’s languishing in second-to-last in the polls. Jon Huntsman is in last place in Iowa, but he has focused his campaign solely on New Hampshire. The polls in that state, the first primary, show him in a very tight contest with Gingrich for third place.

The current polls give reason for the Romney campaign to be happy and to be concerned. He could win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which would “almost certainly seal the Republican nomination for himself,” in the words of Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake. The rise of Rick Santorum further splits the vote of those who are against Romney. On the other hand, if Bachmann and/or Perry drop out after Iowa, it will help consolidate the anti-Romney vote.

If the polls prove accurate, Rick Santorum will get the frontrunner’s treatment immediately after the results in Iowa come in. There is a debate on Saturday, January 7, at 9 PM EST on ABC. Another will be held the next morning at 9 AM EST on NBC. If Santorum can’t handle the heat, then another candidate could make a comeback. Jon Huntsman might get a fresh look if one or more other candidates drop out, giving him more time on the stage.

The results in Iowa today can kill a campaign or inject it with new life. Tomorrow will be a different race than it was today.

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  • StephenD

    Chez (Iresponded to your e-mail), you asked so here it is:
    Santorum to me is the consummate politician. He hedges and haws around questions put directly to him. He seems too willing to play the diplomat with Islam. I still am with Gingrich even with all his faults. At least we know he will focus on the economy and he knows the issue of Islam.

  • ze-ev ben jehudah

    I still like to put my dough on Newt Gingrich couse I like him the most.
    Besides that, he would make a good president and I think he can knock out
    Barack Hussein Obama flat ( a fellah I don't trust one bit).
    Happy New Year to you all.

  • ObamaYoMoma

    “Here is my simple tag line: Somebody who will lie to you to get you to be president will lie to you when they are president.”

    Gingrich has folded like a cheap suit and loss his self control, as all of us that have been following his career for many years always new he would. He's toast.

  • Steve

    US elected Obama as a way of an apology to the muslim world. GOP has no answer for Obama. Whatever happens, US is going down the toilet, fast.

    This is sooo good to watch.

    • mrbean

      The US elected Obama out of the "it all be whitey fault" white guilt that blacks have used a crutch since the 1960s. Obama has been proven to be incompetent, a man completely out of his depth who has no understanding of real-world economics or realpolitik, who cannot deliver a coherent speech without the aid of a teleprompter, who is compelled to rely on the advice of 3rd string leftist ideologues, and who has absolutely no prior, genuine accomplishments to his credit outside of a capacity for illegal political maneuvering, polished mendacity and the ability to wear perfectly creased trousers? How else would a Alinskyite black community organizer become president? He is a feckless nonentity as Commander-in-Chief. The Republicans also chose "seen too many winters" turncoat McCain as their candidate which didn't help them at all.

  • alexander

    E A S Y W I N :
    promise to close southern border, tax heavily goods from China, drill wherever oil is.
    Jobs and security what it is.
    Say it and the do it!

    • ObamaYoMoma

      What about amnesty? If amnesty is ever implemented, it will mean first the end of conservatism of America, then next it will mean the end of America.

  • StephenD

    "What about amnesty?"

    A Conversation that must be had to be sure. But…Until we secure the damn border these conversations are useless.

    • Fred Dawes

      amneaty has been done under bush with obama, the people of the third world are moving here by the millions each year, within 10 years this will be a hispanic country poor evil mean and mass murder can't stop it now.

  • RPisOurSalvation

    Ron Paul 2012!

  • crackerjack

    The tea party approved ship of fools is heading for the iceberg, regardless who is at the helm. There is more to the world than hateing gays and loving Israel.

    After giving us the worst president in US history, the GOP now presents the worst candidates in US history.

  • http://www.contextflexed.com Flipside

    Ryan Mauro is lying about the Iowa poll results. Therefore his entire analysis is spurious.

  • Fred Dawes

    Ron Paul is the best guy he is not a globalists and the boy can't buy him that is who so many boys hate him. why isn't it people want to be puppets of the one world guys why is it some PEOPLE Want us to pay 100 percent of our money to the globalists bankers and make us into some third world money nation.