GOP Convention Fight on the Horizon

Ryan Mauro is a fellow with the Clarionproject.org, the founder of WorldThreats.com and a frequent national security analyst for Fox News Channel. He can be contacted at ryanmauro1986@gmail.com.


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Rick Santorum scored two more surprise victories last night with wins in Alabama and Mississippi. Polls leading up to the vote projected victories for Mitt Romney and/or Newt Gingrich, with reports earlier in the day indicating that exit polls showed Romney taking Mississippi. Santorum won both states at the end of a night, which will heighten speculation about a brokered Republican convention in August.

The RealClearPolitics poll average had Gingrich barely ahead of Romney in Alabama by only 0.2%, and the last poll in Mississippi had him leading by 2%. One poll found Romney ahead in Alabama by 2%. One poll earlier in March had Romney winning Mississippi by 8%. None showed Santorum winning.

Yet, he won Alabama with 34.6%, about 5 points ahead of Gingrich (29.3%) and Romney (28.9%). Ron Paul only received 5% of the vote. Santorum won Mississippi with 32.9%, about 1.5 points ahead of Gingrich (31.3%). Romney came in third with 30.3% and Paul in fourth with 4.4%.

As things stand now, Romney is projected to have 474 delegates. That is a huge lead over Santorum with 228, Gingrich with 137 and Paul with 64.

Santorum opened up his victory speech with, “We did it again.”  The objective of his speech was to counter the perception that it is inevitable that Romney will be the Republican nominee. He said that he “spent a whole lot of money against me for someone who is inevitable.”  He argued against Romney’s electability, saying that only a genuine conservative can defeat President Obama.

Some experts feel that it is nearly impossible for Santorum to get the 1,144 delegates needed to take the nomination. Santorum predicts that he will win the nomination at the convention. He says “it will be very difficult for anyone to get to the number of delegates that is necessary to win with the majority at the convention.” His campaign argues that Romney would lose in a brokered convention because “he will have a very hard time getting his moderate supporters elected as delegates in these convention systems.”

Newt Gingrich’s strategy is essentially the same. Before the vote, he said he wants to stop Romney from reaching 1,144 delegates so there can be a 60-day period between the primaries and the convention in late August about who the nominee should be. In an interview with FOX News Channel’s Bret Baier last night, he floated the possibility that an entirely new candidate could become the nominee if that were to happen. His campaign originally said it had to win both states in order to remain in the contest.

He began his speech by reminding the audience that the delegates are allocated proportionally and vowing to stay in the race until the very end. He declared that the “elite media’s narrative that Mitt Romney is inevitable just collapsed.” He said that Romney cannot defeat Obama in a debate because of his health care plan.

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  • Johanna Wayne

    Rather than fighting, perhaps it would be better if they will settle things in a peaceful way. i know everything can be fixed with good communication. VZ 58

    • Old_BBart_School

      kweeel. "Don't Bogart That Joint! ma friend………."

      Don't Bogart That Joint! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvGJvzwKqg0

      …..Don't Bogart MY TAXES!

      …….pass sum of my money over to ME!

    • mlcblog

      Right. Just like Obama can talk to Ahmidinejab. There are times for a fight and this is one of them. They need to slug it out. The peace at any cost idea is really not helpful when there's a battle to be won.

  • ★FALCON★

    The only way there will be a fight for the nomination is if the GOP Establishment tries to slam Romney through against the will of the Conservative base.

    Romney is only winning in states that lean liberal and Obama has that base covered. Santorum, on the other hand, is winning swing states and states essential to winning the White House and pulling a majority in the Senate and Congress.

    • mrbean

      Dead Man Walking McCain and the Country Club RINOs are all career politicians and are afraid of their own shadows so they will never stand tall for Constitution principles or cpnservative viewpoints when the going get rough.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

        We can see that from the style Boehner is using in charge of the house.

        We need effective leadership, not more of the same.
        Please. Anyone but Romney in the primary, and in the general anyone but Obama.

    • Joseph Klein

      You mean like Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Nevada, which Romney won? Any Republican running against Obama will win Mississippi and Alabama in the general election. Romney is showing that he can appeal to the center, which is where you have to be to win the general election in many swing states.

      • Stephen_Brady

        Joseph, you forget the Gingrich factor. Santorum would have won Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, without Gingrich in the race. Mormons would have given Romney the win in Nevada by any standard (as they will in Idaho and Utah … they vote about 90% in favor of him).

        In a Santorum-Obama battle, Santorum will win the swing states.

        • Joseph Klein

          Good point, but Santorum's success against Obama in the key swing states will depend on how successfully he can pivot away from the social issues which turn independents off to a strong economic message.

          • Stephen_Brady

            I think that he'll be able to do so, quite well. Social conservatives know him well, and will vote for him. He will be able to focus on economic issues, in the general.

    • ObamaYoMoma

      The only way there will be a fight for the nomination is if the GOP Establishment tries to slam Romney through against the will of the Conservative base.

      Romney is only winning in states that lean liberal and Obama has that base covered. Santorum, on the other hand, is winning swing states and states essential to winning the White House and pulling a majority in the Senate and Congress.

      I hate to rain on your liberal parade buddy, but RINOs like you wouldn't recognize a true conservative even if it stared you in the face and spit in your eye. Indeed, Rick Santorum is a carbon copy of GWB in that like GWB he is a social conservative, but when it comes to everything else, he is a stealth leftist on steroids, as the size, scope, and power of the federal government during Santorum's tenure in office, grew by over 80 percent. Not to mention that Santorum repeatedly voted against “Right to Work” laws and always sided with big labor against the private sector. Hence, if that is what you consider to be a conservative, then I'd hate to see what you would consider to be a liberal.

      Indeed, the last thing this country needs at this time is another big spending leftist like Rick Santorum. As a matter of fact, the primary reason the budget deficits and the national debt both exploded through the roof the instant the economy headed south in 2008 and before Obama assumed office, was because of the massive expansion in the size, scope, and power of the federal government that Rick Santorum and GWB are both responsible for, as under GWB the Republican Congress morphed into the second coming of the Dhimmicrat Party. Apparently, you have a very short memory or otherwise you are mentally handicapped.

      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

        And Romney is a copy of McCain.
        I don't have a short term memory problem, and Romney was too close to Obama on his healthcare mandates for anyone to support once they understand Romney's defense of Romneycare.

        • ObamaYoMoma

          And Romney is a copy of McCain.

          Yeah right Romney wrote the amnesty bill and fully supports amnesty for illegal immigrants. Thanks for wasting my time with your stupidity.

          Romney was too close to Obama on his healthcare mandates

          Obviously you aren't astute to figure out the truth. 91 pages vs. over 2000 pages. Yeah right.

          or anyone to support once they understand Romney's defense of Romneycare.

          Which apparently is way above your pay grade. Don't lose your day job in this economy, because you won't find another.

          No wonder this country is going to hell in a hand-basket. It is getting exactly the government it deserves thanks to winners like this genius.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

            Don't you realize that the same people were behind both and that Romneycare was used as a model for Obamacare? http://www.nationalreview.com/primary-event/27975

            The rest of your rant wasn't worth responding to.

          • ObamaYoMoma

            Like I said, don't lose your day job. Now…quit bugging me with your garbage.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

            Facts are such inconvenient things.

          • ObamaYoMoma

            Don't humor yourself, you wouldn't know a fact if it jumped on your lap and humped you.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

            You didn't.

            But then again you sound like a bitter liberal realizing it never works, socialism fails miserably every time it's tried. Even in the medical field.

          • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

            You didn't.

            Even in the medical field the private sector is quicker at responding, and meeting demand.

  • Grayzel1

    Falcon, thank you. That was a correct analysis but I will still vote ABO.

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

      In the General election I'd vote for a sick squirrel with a bad limp over Obama. Unless it has a muslim heritage.

  • Old_BBart_School

    CONSERVATIVES have been Fighting Romney elitists for a year.

    BRING IT!

    This was not Conservative's first choice. Nonetheless: Game on!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7pv7sO5Gng

  • maturin20

    Go, Santorum, Go! Bring the heat!

  • BLJ

    Why is it such a "disaster" to have such a hard fought prolonged primary season? Oh, I almost forgot, because the MSM says so. I guess it was fine back in 2008 between the Chosen One and Hillary.

    Let the process play itself out. Whoever gets the nod needs to make our Dear Leader run on his record as POTUS. Ask the question, "Are you better off now than four years ago?"

  • cynthia curran

    Gee, both Romeny and Santrium are better than Gringrich and Perry were on immirgation. Gringrich and Perry are more elites that support the legalization of hispancis that the Chamber of Commerce supported. The Tea Patry is dumb to think that Gringrich or Perry would do anything on the immirgaiton front. Perry and Gringrich a bette welfare state by the legalization of millions of hispanics like RR did.

  • umustbkidding

    I'm gonna be seriously rilied if the elite Repulbicans ram Romney down our throats. If Romney is the nominee, he of course will loose to Zero, but worse than that, we have to realize that we must start a 3rd party. That working inside the Republican party isn't working at all.

    I refuse to continue to be the frog in the petridish anymore. I've already jumped out.

    Go Rick!

  • Fred Dawes

    No matter who is the next guy the bankers want in office;" we the people", will be raped", by this insane government.
    No one but Paul is telling you what will happen and what is happening FOR ONE Reason bankers who now own you are not happy with anyone who is real.

    This time next year we will be real lucky if we have a country but if we do have a place on this earth it will look like mexico, and the monkey in office will tell you all is great with 32 percent unemployed with tax system taken 40 percent of your money and the social benefits disappeared.

  • cynthia curran

    Santarium wins in states with a lot of blacks and whites go to church. Romney wins in the west not so much blacks and people are more likely to be mormoms. Mormons are more conservative than Evangelicals but mormons are put down.

  • cynthia curran

    Miss lowest income state but New Hempshire highest income state. Miss more people on the dole since it has a black rural population while New Hemshire has the lowest poverty rate. Santarium wins in MIss a loser state while Romeny wins in New Hempshire a winning state.

  • Wesley69

    If Romney doesn't win and there is a brokered convention, neither Santorum or Gingrich will emerge as the Republican nominee. It will be a dark horse candidate. Maybe someone like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan may ride to the rescue. Problem is 60 days. If it is Ryan, he needs to pick Marco Rubio for VP. This will generate the excitement needed. Regardless, it will be an uphill battle. The war between Romney, Santorum and Gingrich is taking its toll and the only one benefitting from this is Obama, a president that by all odds should lose. But, the vicious infighting of these candidates will give us 4 more years of this Marxist.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

    I think you're being generous in even calling it 'leadership'.

  • Arab Bling

    Imaginative, at best….Never gave much thought to Boehner being a rD, but then if they actually did kidnap the real Boehner and replace him with this mouse of an imposter, I suppose it would make ideal sense.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

    I would guess it happened during that golf game they shared.

  • Arab Bling

    I'm pretty sure Obummer cheats at interpreting the Constitution…….

    And after I heard the news spot today that he is allowing native Americans to kill Bald Eagles, I decided that a rhyme is in order. Odumandummer.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

    It was probably easier than making up nationalized healthcare for them and putting them under death panels.

  • Arab Bling

    I understand that one of the most desirable / *green* / ideal for plants is the fertilizer that is essentially worm castings. He ought to love the *green* aspect of that….

  • ObamaYoMoma

    Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant. I can tell you are really a genius.

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpgiYe6LToc Roger

    It's nice to see you stretch and grow.
    Before you wouldn't have realized it.