Islamist vs. Secularist for Egyptian Presidency


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Shafiq made a point of reaching out to the Christian minority, which is about 10% of the population. He floated the idea that he might make a female Christian his deputy. Coptic Christian groups in the U.S. endorsed his candidacy.

Now, Shafiq is on the defensive because of the Brotherhood’s political strategy. He is working to change the image that he is an opponent of the revolution. He says the Islamists have “hijacked” the revolution and that he does not want to move backwards. The most liberal elements of Egyptian society refuse to embrace him. The Free Egyptians Party, for example, described the upcoming race is the “worst case scenario” pitting an “Islamic fascist” against a “military fascist.” The secular democratic party says it may boycott the election and will endorse neither candidate.

Hamdeen Sabahi came in a surprising third place with about 21.5%. He is a secular Nasserist, but that is not necessarily good for the U.S. In 2005, hesaid, “One must salute this organization [Al-Qaeda] when it kills any American soldier—a soldier, not a civilian. The presence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq as part of the resistance is a positive phenomenon that should be supported. I support Al-Qaeda when it kills Americans.”

His surge happened because many secular voters wanted someone who had no ties to the Mubarak regime. He was able to position himself as the only secularist candidate that is a friend of the revolution.  He was consistently in fifth place in the polls, though one had him rising above Morsi for fourth place. He ended up coming in a close third.

The results were incredibly embarrassing for Aboul-Fotouh and Amr Moussa who were, for almost the entire duration of the campaign, considered the frontrunners. They even had a one-on-one debate because it had appeared to have become a two-man race. Fotouh ended up in fourth with 18% and Moussa came in fifth with 11%.

Sabahi and Aboul-Fotouh have filed complaints, claiming to have proof of voter fraud designed to help Shafiq. Aboul-Fotouh says campaign observers were not allowed to view the ballot counting at some stations and some votes were casted by dead people. Other voters were bribed. Sabahi wants a partial recount. He says that hundreds of thousands of military and security personnel voted for Shafiq, even though they were not allowed to vote. The Brotherhood reportedly chose not to complain about the fraud because it doesn’t want to risk having another vote. Moussa is not filing any complaints.

If the election results become official and these challenges are dismissed, all attention will be focused on the upcoming battle between Morsi and Shafiq. The race will be decided by how the race is seen by the public.

If the Brotherhood succeeds in creating a grand “pro-revolution” alliance against Shafiq that includes pro-revolution secularists, it probably wins in a landslide. If Shafiq succeeds in making it about secularism against Islamism, then he can win the presidency comfortably. If you total up the percentages of the major secular candidates (Shafiq, Sabahi and Moussa), you get about 56.31%. If you total the percentages of the major Islamist candidates (Morsi and Aboul-Fotouh), you get only 43.23%.

The Islamists may or may not win the presidency, but they already have a huge majority in the parliament and that is, in and of itself, a huge victory. The big question is how much power the ruling Supreme Armed Council of the Armed Forces is actually willing to give up.

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  • H&R_ Barack

    RE: "Islamist vs. Secularist for Egyptian Presidency."

    QUESTION: Hemlock? – Or, Strychnine?

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLNn2YflwNs Roger

      Have you heard the horrible news, Iran has another infestation situation. Another computer virus has settled in for a visit with their computers.
      http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.a

      Since the name 'flame' stuck, it must be named for their 'manly macho' leaders.

      • Ghostwriter

        Why is it bad news? Anything that prevents those maniacs from getting a nuclear weapon is good in my book.

        • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLNn2YflwNs Roger

          It's great news. I should have labeled it 'sarcasm'.

  • H&R_ Barack

    From the 7th century, and to the present, the openly stated goal of Islam is to bring the entire world into Dar Al-Islam, or the "peace" of Islam. This is a clearly defined condition under which no other system is tolerated.

    Unfortunately for Muslims, and considerably more so for the rest of the world, Islam is extremely strict and uncompromising,

    Over the last 1400 years, 270 million non-believers were murdered by Muslim jihadists.

    It is estimated that upwards of 60 million Christians were slaughtered during this conquest.

    Also, half the Hindu civilization was annihilated and 80 million Hindus murdered.

    Islamic jihad also destroyed over 10 million Buddhists.

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLNn2YflwNs Roger

      Are you sure they didn't mean 'pieces' of islam?
      That's often all they do is blow things up.

  • StephenD

    Egypt is a hopeless cause and will be for some time but not forever. They are listening to the counsel of fools and must pay the price. Our concern now will be how to restrict the flow of our hard earned tax dollars going in support of an enemy of our Constitution. It will be interesting to see how the POTUS and his agents work their way around openly supporting any government that restricts its "Constitution" to Sharia which is opposed to the US Constitution and must inevitably be in conflict with it. One will survive…I hope it is us.

  • Drakken

    Welcome back to the Dark Ages Egypt, may you all rot in the filth of your own making and don't expect us in the West to accept the islamic refugees with open arms.