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The contest for the Republican presidential nomination has, yet again, taken a surprising turn. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum won the caucuses in Missouri and Minnesota yesterday and topped the night off with a come-from-behind surprise victory in Colorado.
Mitt Romney lost Missouri in 2008 and did not make a play for the caucus, which isn’t awarding any delegates. Newt Gingrich failed to make it onto the ballot, leaving Rick Santorum and Ron Paul to battle it out. Santorum prevailed, winning Missouri with 55% of the vote. Romney came in second with 25%. Ron Paul finished with 12%. This was not a surprising victory, as Santorum was leading in the polls there.
The media assumed that Romney would win Colorado and focused on Minnesota. Romney won the state by 19% in 2008, but the polls showed Santorum with a comfortable lead as the caucus took place. At the time of this article’s publication, Santorum was shown winning Minnesota with 45%. Ron Paul is in second with 27%, Romney has 17% and Gingrich has 11%. If these totals hold, this will mean that Santorum rose from a 2-point lead on February 4 in Public Policy Polling’s survey to a 9-point lead on February 6 and ultimately won by a whopping 18%.
The media thought Santorum’s landslide victory in Minnesota would be the story of the night, but they were wrong. Romney won Colorado in 2008 by 42%. The polls consistently showed him with double-digit leads. The last poll had him ahead by 10%. Amazingly, Santorum pulled off an upset and won a solid victory in Colorado. With 99% of districts reporting, Santorum had attained 40% of the vote, while Romney had 35%, Gingrich had 13% and Paul had 12%. This is a remarkable feat for a candidate who was dismissed as he languished in the low single digits for the majority of the campaign.
Santorum gave his victory speech after the results in Missouri and Minnesota were announced. He likely didn’t think he’d win Colorado at that point. Trumpeting his electability, Santorum proudly said, “Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t stand here to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.”
He made the case that last night’s contests were the most reflective of what the general election campaign will look like. Mitt Romney was unable to overwhelm his opponents with immense finances and superior organization, Santorum argued. He made the point that President Obama’s organization and fundraising will outmatch his Republican opponent, and so Romney will not be able to count on those advantages to win. Santorum argued that the only way Obama could be beaten is if a sharp contrast is drawn and that he is the best candidate to do that.
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