Iranian War Drums


Pages: 1 2

After threatening only days ago to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which twenty percent of the world’s oil supplies moves, the Iranian government has once again engaged in ominous sabre-rattling.

The mullah regime’s latest threat involves a warning to the United States on Tuesday not to send its naval task force group, headed by the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis, back to the Persian Gulf. The Stennis had already left Gulf waters last week en route to the Afghan war theater and is now “somewhere between Oman and Pakistan.”

“I advise, recommend and warn them [the Americans] over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once,” Iranian Army Chief Ataollah Salehi reportedly stated.

The reason for Iran’s latest bellicose outburst is that the Obama administration is implementing a strict set of sanctions that could seriously damage, even topple, the Iranian government. The latest punitive measures are being imposed because Iran is still refusing, despite worldwide condemnation, to give up its nuclear weapons program. The fact Iran may be as little as a year away from developing its first nuclear weapon accounts for the sanctions’ severity. The International Atomic Energy Commission also reported recently that Iranian scientists are “working to design a nuclear warhead.”

Iran’s rulers have survived previous sanction attempts to halt their nuclear program because Iran is the fourth-largest energy exporter in the world. Its sales of oil and gas, which comprise the country’s largest exports, have allowed the Iranian government to maintain the enormous state subsidy system that has, more or less, maintained social peace in the country. There have been anti-government demonstrations in Iran, but they have failed to develop into “Arab Spring”-like movements that have brought about regime change in countries like Egypt and Tunisia.

But the latest restrictions were constructed to target those all-important oil revenues, the mullah regime’s life blood. In the future, countries that buy Iranian oil will not be allowed to “conduct financial transactions in the United States.” Governments who continue to do so would thus be excluded from a major part of the world’s financial system. In essence, what these new sanctions amount to is an embargo on Iranian oil.

It is obviously believed a US-induced boycott of Iranian oil will cause such economic havoc in Iran that the mullahs will give up their nuclear ambitions and “come back into compliance with its international obligations.” What is left unspoken, however, is that it is most likely hoped the ensuing economic disruption after the sanctions begin to bite will lead to the mullahs’ undoing. It was in response to this embargoing of its oil that the Iranian government issued its first threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s vice president stated “even one drop of oil” will not pass through the strait if Iran’s oil exports were affected.

But as with all plans, there are also setbacks. A major concern regarding the latest sanctions is that it is “unclear” whether there will be enough alternative sources of oil to make up for the expected reduction in Iranian exports. A second problem is that oil prices would also certainly rise at a time when many countries are in recession. And while Western nations are expected to co-operate with the boycott, China, which imports a lot of its oil from Iran, will definitely be more problematic.

“The only strategy that is going to work here is one where you get the cooperation of oil buyers,” said one analyst in the New York Times. “You could imagine the Europeans, the Japanese, and the South Koreans cooperating, and then China would suck up all of the oil that was initially going to everyone else.”

Pages: 1 2

  • matt

    It is one in the same, the carrier would be sunk in the Straits of Hormuz. What Iran is looking for is a single from the US that they will not be attacked. Because since the human shields left Iraq, they have less strategic options.Hence the war games and closing the Straits for a couple of hours the other day. Before all they had to do was plant some IED's kill some US forces in Iraq to make themselves be heard. Now they have to aim at the Straits as deterrent. They want the carrier there because it is a target, they can strike in retaliation. But if they believe that a strike is coming then perhaps they would act preemptively., take out the carrier closing the Straits.

    • Fred Dawes

      you got to ask why? and understand one fact the USA Has 1000 times more power and oil so what this all about? its called globalists money and that means power to murder all people on this good earth, just read the Drudge report. Its all about power over all people and that power is about to start a third world war.

    • Stephen_Brady

      Taking out a carrier amongst its battlegroup is beyond the power of Iran. Their entire navy, and most of their air force, would be wiped out in a single day.

      By the ways, the Straits of Hormuz were never closed, the other, for even a single minute. Do you really believe that Iran has that kind of power? Also, their "human shields" … like in most of the Muslim world … does not consist of enemy troops, but their own women and children.

    • aspacia

      Our troops are being stationed in Israel according A7 news.

      After what happened to Gadaffi after he complied, there is no way Iran or N. Korea will comply

  • matt

    The problem with the Persian Gulf is the size, it is not point having cruise missile that go 1000 of km to hit targets over the horizon, if it is only a matter of hundreds of km. The bigger issue is the Iranian navy which has to be drawn out into the open waters of the Gulf of Oman. Because if we attack their vessels in the Gulf or Straits of Hormuz the we could end up closing it ourselves. So the second defensive line for larger vessels out of Jask is good for the US. The first defensive line across the Straits comprises smaller vessels for there the threat is smaller. These vessels have limited distance, food and fuel and need to acquire target acquisition or seek resupply from Bandar e Abbas one of the islands Abu Musa etc or they are combat ineffective, in a short period of time. So you need to not provide a targeted and prevent resupply via port or ship. The fast boats, small subsurface fleet etc.

    The vessels from Jask can be hit from over the Horizon from the Arabian Sea, these vessels on the second defensive line are required to protect the first line asymmetrical vessels and ports. By doing this the Iranian force structure is spread thin over the two defensive lines. Removing the threat that any strike would cause the straits to close.

    • Larry

      Try to understand, The entire Iranian economy is dependent on the shipment of their oil. To do anything that would hinder that shipment of oil would completely destroy the Iranian economy. That would start a revolution in Iran.

  • matt

    The larger subsurface fleet is split between anti-submarine warfare protecting the fleet and targeting enemy vessels, between the two lines, these vessels have say around 50 days endurance before the have to enter port, if they survived that long, these vessels are tracked by our own submarines, so from the onset at least half of the force will be destroyed, including by the IN Dolphin that is deployed there.. So that brings us to the mine layers, Iran can mine the straits and parts of the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf, oil platforms etc, once before that capability is lost. So during any war we are talking about the time to clear the mines and for the asymmetrical vessels to become combat ineffective. That is the period of time that the Straits would be closed for during any conflict. We are talking about days not weeks or months.

  • matt

    Then you have to remember that we have two defensive lines, two navies IRGC/Iranian and two command structures. Which is easy to exploit via chaos, anyone involved in military operations knows that one command structure during conflict is chaotic, two is double the chaos. That is just the navy, then your have two armies and two air forces. It is a recipe for disaster. It is like Nazi Germany, the Waffen SS and German army, to command structures, two armies.

  • matt

    I will also add that Iran has been forced to deploy some of its vessel in open seas due to the threat of limpet mines.As was revealed last year Israel used merchant ships to covertly sail along the Iranian coast, in which the whole Iranian fleet could have been limpet mined. And sunk simultaneous, in conjunction with air strikes and covert ground operations. Chaos is what Israel would have caused exploiting the weakness in the command structure. Making it impossible for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. It was also how Israel would have set up a forward operating base on Abu Musa for sustained air strikes without having to fly over Arab countries more than once.

    To make it appear and prevent missile strikes on the Saudi oil fields we would get some F-16's from the boneyard put them in Israel colors and dump them in the Nefud Desert to make it appear the Saudis had shot them down during the first over flights, prior to Abu Musa being established. Wikileaks destroyed that plan after the views of the Arabs on Iran became public knowledge.

    • aspacia

      Matt, if we had a strong C& C, Iran would not be playing. Remember what Reagan did to Iran when they acted out. Blam, what military.

  • ObamaYoMoma

    It is obviously believed a US-induced boycott of Iranian oil will cause such economic havoc in Iran that the mullahs will give up their nuclear ambitions and “come back into compliance with its international obligations.”

    No…that will never happen. That's an exercise in wishful thinking. Iran will just take their nuclear weapons quest further underground, until they become nuclear armed like the N. Koreans.

    Indeed, there is only one way to stop the Iranians, eradicate the ruling Mullah regime and obliterate their nuclear weapons program. Sanctions and negotiations will inevitably lead to a nuclear armed Iran, which not only will precipitate the Saudi funded nuclear weapons arsenal already sitting in Pakistan to be proliferated throughout the Sunni Islamic world, but will also cause world oil prices to skyrocket permanently with all of its negative connotations. Hence, nuclear WWIII, which will make WWII seem like a pleasant stroll in the park, will be preordained.

    Of course, war to stop Iran isn't a pleasant prospect, because world oil prices will inevitably temporarily skyrocket. However, if Iran gets nukes with impunity like it has been allowed to kill American troops with impunity thanks to Bush and Obama, oil prices will also inevitably skyrocket through the roof, but on a permanent basis. Not to mention that a nuclear armed Iran and a nuclear armed Sunni Islamic world with their imperative to make Islam supreme will also inevitably become far more belligerent and aggressive as well.

    Also, Iran sees the writing on the wall. Obama is fixing to get tossed out of office. Thus, if Iran doesn't acquire nukes before Obama gets tossed out of office, it will never be able to acquire them. Hence, the final push is on. Hopefully, if push turns to shoves before Obama is tossed out of office, the Israelis will intervene with targeted strikes to set Iran's nuclear weapons program back for a few years.

  • Flowerknife_us

    One would have to occupy the Iranian side of the Straight to maintain safe passage for ships.

    Better to disable their refinaning of transportation fuels. Standing by the side of the Gulf with an empty gas can will be a time of reflection for them. Hard to close the Straight when one is expecting a delivery.

  • SHmuelHaLevi

    I find it hard to believe that a navy such as the Iranian posting three 50 years old destroyers, 5 frigates, two of which are about 25 years old, a few old USSR submarines and quite a few costal patrol vessels made in Iran plus some high speed torpedo boats, withous any air support can take on an advanced US Carrier Group.
    Iran's Silkworm Chinese costal batteries are also devoid of Air support.
    In fact the whole Iranian AF is a mish mash of 40 odd old Phantoms out of repairs, some Iranian made and very limited fighter jets and a fair amount of choppers.
    The ground forces and rocket forces are respectable.
    The US can easily neutralize that in hours.

    • aspacia

      True.

  • KKKK

    All humanity must owrk towards the elimination of this terror regime in Tehran they are the biggest sposners of terror in the regio and the world, they took over other sovergin states' embassies, they hae threatened to wip out another country and promsied 'a world without' several others, etc what more evideence do we need?

    • Fred Dawes

      ORDER OF THE GLOBALISTS bankers

    • aspacia

      And replace terror regimes with what? Look at the populations of these land. Are we to build nation state for all of them?

      We send food aid to Somalia; we have Black Hawk Down. We overthrow the Taliban, and now have the corrupt Karzi, and Sharia Law. We nail Iraq, and the place is still insane.

      Economically, and practically all we can do is neutron bomb these places and start from scratch.

  • tagalog

    If the Iranian warning is a sign of Iran's desperation, all that needs to be done in order to call their bluff is to send a U.S. carrier (with all its supporting craft) into the Strait of Hormuz. I understand from the mainstream news that the U.S. has two carrier task forces in the area besides the Stennis; why not send them to the Strait of Hormuz? Then we wouldn't be sending the Stennis, but we'd be making a show that we're not intimidated by these overinflated holy rollers.

    If it's not a sign of desperation, then Iran calls the shots; if they want a war, let it begin in the Strait of Hormuz. They can start it and we will finish it.

    • aspacia

      Like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Only if we fight toward totally victory and unconditional surrender, and O will never go for this.

  • John Saunders-Smith

    We won't just be fighting Iranians but the entire muslim world and millions of muslims living amongst us in the West. The Shiate and Sunni differences will be set aside, in fact by keeping alive the imaginary threat on islam, muslims keep their religion alive. Without the threat from the outside and they'll tear each others throats out.

    In any case, we in the civilised West are doomed.

    • tagalog

      The same thing was said about the coalition attack on Iraq. It turned out that the Arab nations all either supported the initiative, or sat the thing out.

      The West has been threatened, far more critically, by Islam at least two or three times in the past, during times when the West was far weaker than it is now. We've survived through those and we'll survive through this Islamic time too.

      Maybe the time is ripe for us to join with the nations that agree, and wipe out the Iranian nuclear program. Strike while the iron is hot. Never let a good crisis go to waste, eh?

      • jeremy

        obammae is too much of a coward to do anything, hes a traitor to this country.

    • ObamaYoMoma

      Seek mental help for your severe mental issues with delusions and uncontrollable self-hatred.

      • mrbean

        Stop the vicious psychologizing and practicing "Ophra" medicine with you ridiculous postings. Your inflated opinion of yourself is laughable.

        • ObamaYoMoma

          When you stop being a racist, I'm stop responding sarcastically to intentionally sarcastic posts.

    • Vineet

      The Muslim unity is just a myth. The civilized west has no choice but to takes off it gloves and smash the living daylights of the evil Mullahs,

      • tagalog

        I agree; for one thing, a good smash will be similar in effect to the first shot in a pool game; all those balls, arranged tightly in their triangular formation, go flying every which way.

      • http://www.boycottscotland.com Edward

        The Sunni HATE the Shiite and the Persians HATE the Arabs.

        When the US destroys the Shiite Republic of Iran, the Sunni will LOVE us.

    • joy52

      I'll take those odds. Time to clean house. So now we should be really scaird. That kind of talk led us to where we are now. Let the casualties be for something, instead of for nothing.

  • BLJ

    Screw Iran. I hope they try to attack one of our ships. This will give is a chance to get some long overdue payback. My biggest fear is relying on the idiot in the White House to make the right decision.

    • joe lee

      Well said, Bring it on, He threatend to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth.

    • Fred Dawes

      YOU MEAN BLACK HOUSE

    • http://www.boycottscotland.com Edward

      Plus the sane Persians who hate the Islamofascist ayatollahs will revolt against the ayatollahs.

      The Islamic Republic of Iran has enemies OUTSIDE and INSIDE.

      This time the US better help the opposition IN Persia.

  • BS77

    where is a General Patton when you need one?

    • Jim Vinny IV

      All the miltary leaders from WW2 are spinning in their graves for sure. How sad.

      • Fred Dawes

        Not sad NORMAL IN A NATION OF MONKEYS.

    • Fred Dawes

      Yes but some think that Patton was murdered by order of his own military/political people.

  • Jim Vinny IV

    You people must think that there is a man in the whitehouse who cares about the U.S. of A. You are terribly mistaken.

    He only ordered the killing of O.Bl> to fool you into thinking he cares, and to gain election votes.

    In truth, he is a communist marxist illegal immigrant who should be removed from service, and deported to Kenya/Malaysia.

    Nuff said.

    • Anonymous

      Jerkoff, we all know that you think you're very clever and sarcastic – there isn't much to say to an imbecile such as yourself, other than to tell you that your messiah is going to be voted out of office next November. Sorry, a-hole.

      Nuff said.

  • Jim

    Has anyone considered the what the effects of Iran or Saudi Shias bombing KSA's oil infrastructure or power stations will do? It would translate to severe global shortages of crude and consequently the world would collapse into a Mad Max scenario

    • ObamaYoMoma

      At worse oil prices would rise only temporarily. However, on the other hand, if Iran gets nukes and the Saudi funded nuclear weapons arsenal sitting in Pakistan inevitably gets proliferated throughout the Sunni Islamic world as a direct result, oil prices will also inevitably skyrocket, but instead they will skyrocket permanently. As a nuclear armed Sunni and Shi'a Islamic world – with its imperative to make Islam supreme – will inevitably become far more belligerent and aggressive.

    • Stephen_Brady

      Iran has an Achilles Heel, Jim. It's called Kharg Island. This island, situated in the Persian Gulf, and its pumping stations on the mainland, are where 80% of Iran's oil exports ship from. It is a small target, and vital to the Iranian economy.

      Now, if we had a President with guts, he would secretly inform the Iranians that any move to close the Straits would result in the total annihiliation of Kharg Island. This would collapse their economy. Any attack upon US Naval vessels would result in the total destruction of the Iranian Navy.

      And finally, why not pull a "Kennedy"? Make a public statement that, "Any attack by strategic forces from Iran upon Israel will be considered an attack upon the territory of the United States, and will be responded to by the retaliatory capabilities of this nation." Call the Mullahs' bluff. We have the cards …

  • mrbean

    The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles. A longtime CIA officer, Robert Baer, who spent 21 years in the Middle East is predicting that Iran with nuclear weapons may attack Israel in the fall of 2012, dragging the United States into another major war and endangering US military and civilian personnel (and most other interests) throughout the Middle East and beyond.

    • joy52

      We'll deal with that. What interests? The ME is a shambles. Let oil who res go broke. Let Amadinnerjacket put up or shut up. Time to send him back to the stone age where he belongs.

  • mrbean

    And a s a follow up, once the US is dragged into a war with Iran the Muslims of all sects will side with Iran against the Great Satan and Israel and a "War of Containment" will not be successful.

    • joy52

      Good. I"ll buy your ticket so you can join them.

      • mrbean

        It has to be a scorched earth war for victory fool. I am guessing with a prissy handle like joy52 you are a woman. Women should stay at home, cook, clean house, and have babies – preferrably male child and not concern themselves with matters of state. After all look at the mess the post menopausal hag Hillary Clinton has made out of foreign policy as servant to to clandestine muslim Obama.

  • speedyjerry

    More Wagging The Dog distractions for Obama is all I see here, Since The Shellackin of 2010 thats all the media has done, we have been overthrown by the Soros / Immelt media. My thoughts at speedyjerry.com

  • ronin

    Globalist changed the Shah regime for Mullas thinking they can minipulate them easy, not knowing they planted the cancer that inflicts the entire world. From what I know, if Mullas think they are getting destroyed, they would use anything in their disposal to affect the world economy!! Iran has focused their military strategy on mobile medium range missiles, which will hit all the oil platforms in persian gulf affecting oil markets for months. Talking about naval warfare is useless. Mobile missiles on the other hand are very difficult to find, as we found out latter in Irag first war, SAS and DELTA force were sent to hunt them. So we can sit and wait to see what will happen.

  • joy52

    Smart people will figure something out.

    • Fred Dawes

      like Ron Paul

      • http://www.boycottscotland.com Edward

        MORON Paul.

  • BLJ

    All the better reason for the U.S. to harvest our own energy sources and build that pipeline. Let the diaper heads destroy themselves.

  • Joe Kansas

    Ready….. Aim….. Fire!!!!

  • joe lee

    What chance would Iran have against USA and Israel if there was a WAR, and how long would it last.

    • Mike

      It would only take half a day to wipe out Iran's military.

      • http://www.boycottscotland.com Edward

        Help the Persian people overthrow the ayatollahs that have been worse to the people than the Shah ever was.

  • RoguePatriot6

    Hit him hard fast and make it hurt!!! Avoid the unconventional fight or letting them draw us into a fight on their terms.

  • WilliamJamesWard

    The well with their holy poptart, fill it with cement mixed with pig droppings and
    ask Amaddinnerjacket what he wants to do next, he could be put in that well.
    William

  • Fred Dawes

    The U.S Navy and the and seals can do the job with the help of the Israel navy so what the
    problem? Isral has 400 nuclear weapons, but will the jews help or will the Globalists ( bankers ) go away?

  • http://www.boycottscotland.com Edward

    The Islamic Republic of Iran is long overdue for an ass whipping. It's coming, soon.

    • randy

      Unreal. The americans have lost every conflict since ww2.

      • Ghostwriter

        That's not quite true. We have a stalemate in Korea,a loss in Vietnam,a victory in the Cold War,and some unknown variables in Iraq and Afghanistan. Get your facts straight,randy.

      • UCSPanther

        This is the same idiot who keeps claiming that "christians must be wiped out"..

        What do you expect?

  • Grenadier

    If the threat of a massive disruption of oil supplies is a major to the US economy, shouldn't we be expanding our oil production as fast as possible? It doesn't seem very smart to spend billions on defense of the Middle Eastern oil when we are sitting virtually unlimited supplies here at home. Perhaps we should be drilling, fracking and building pipelines as quickly as we can. The best strategy is to minimize or eliminate the threat without war. What is wrong in Washington? Why does our political leadership block efforts to increase oil production?

  • aspacia

    Peruse PJ TV regarding Iran and the ongoing protests that our media does not cover.