The Death of Amnesty 2013

Arnold Ahlert is a former NY Post op-ed columnist currently contributing to JewishWorldReview.com, HumanEvents.com and CanadaFreePress.com. He may be reached at atahlert@comcast.net.


160245090-620x407If the rumors coming out of Washington, D.C. are accurate, amnesty will die a long, slow death in the House of Representatives. According to Politico, Republican leaders got together yesterday to plan how they would deliver the news to the public. The current thinking among the House resisters was best expressed by Rep. Steve King (R-IA), who represents those most adamantly opposed to the legislation. He insisted the Senate plan is about helping “elites who want cheap labor, Democratic power brokers, and those who hire illegal labor.” “It would hurt Republicans, and I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise,” he added.

On Monday, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) reiterated a point he has made many times before, namely that he has no plans to take up the Senate bill in his chamber. “The House is going to do its own job on developing an immigration bill,” he said. “The American people expect that we’ll have strong border security in place before we begin the process of legalizing and fixing our legal immigration system.”

It is not just the American people in general who want strong border security to be put in place before anything else is passed. A new survey taken by GOP pollster John McLaughlin reveals that a large majority of Hispanic voters believe the border should be 90 percent secure before any legal status is granted to illegal aliens. Registered Hispanic voters backed that proposal by a margin of 60 percent to 34 percent, while Hispanic adults in general backed the proposal by a 60 percent to 32 percent margin. Hispanic voters also opposed granting illegal aliens the ability to obtain federal benefits, including healthcare, while they are going through the process of legalization, and before the 90 percent goal is achieved, by a margin of 56 percent to 40 percent.

There was a divergence between registered and non-registered voters regarding two other issues. Employment verification to determine the status of potential employee was supported by 64 percent of registered voters, compared with just 46 percent of non-registered Hispanics. Increased border security was approved by 55 percent of registered voters, but only 45 percent of non-registered voters.

Yet the most telling part of the poll was a repudiation of the idea “comprehensive immigration reform” would constitute some sort of political redemption for Republicans. A whopping 65 percent believe that the Republican Party discriminates against Latinos and Hispanics, 61 percent believe the Republican party doesn’t care about people like them, and 62 percent believe Republicans are against immigration because they don’t want any more Hispanics in the country.

If there is a bright side, only 29 percent said the would never vote for a Republican, and 46 percent agree with the statement that there are “new forces in the Republican Party like Senator Marco Rubio who are fighting for immigration reform and fair treatment for Latinos.” Yet 39 percent still believe “it is the same old Republican Party and is as prejudiced as always against Latinos.”

Thus, despite all the media, squishy Republican, and Democratic hoopla attempting to convince Republicans that they are “doomed” if they fail to pass this package, their battle to win the hearts and minds of Hispanics is still an uphill battle at best. Furthermore, it may not be a battle worth winning if it alienates their base. As the Huffington Post’s Charles Babington explains, “Republicans will go nowhere if they lose a hard-core conservative every time they pick up a new unaligned voter with a more moderate message.”

Yet more importantly, Republicans have lost sight of the big picture in two ways. First, as journalist Steven Sailer reveals, Census Bureau data, taken after every national election, shows exit polls following the 2012 election overstated the share of the Hispanic vote — just as they have done in every election since 2000. And not just the exit polls. Sailer notes the mainstream media also exaggerated the Hispanic share of the 2012 vote by a factor of almost 20 percent. In fact, the percentage of Latinos casting ballots declined from 49.9 percent in 2008 to 48 percent in 2012, and the number of Hispanics who claimed to be eligible but didn’t bother to vote jumped from 9.8 million to 12.1 million. Thus, the overall Hispanic vote in 2012 accounted for only 8.4 percent of the total, not the 10 percent as originally reported.

Furthermore, no Republican presidential candidate has won a majority of the Hispanic vote in more than 50 years. George W. Bush reached the highest percentage in that span of time, getting 40 percent in the 2004 election. Even after Ronald Reagan signed the Simpson-Mazzoli bill in 1986, granting unambiguous amnesty to 2.7 million illegal aliens, the Republican share of the Hispanic vote actually declined by from 37 percent to 30 percent in the 1988 election. Yet despite that reality, George H.W. Bush won in a landslide.

In other words, the pernicious notion that the Hispanic vote is critical to Republican success has been grossly exaggerated, a reality made evident by Byron York. York revealed that if Mitt Romney had won a record-shattering 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, he still would have lost the election.

The other part of the big picture Republicans have lost sight of revolves around the idea disseminated by the establishment wing of their own party, which has promoted the idea that Republicans should vote for comprehensive reform because Hispanics are essentially “natural Republicans” who just don’t realize it yet. This is unadulterated nonsense. Hispanics overwhelmingly support ObamaCare by a margin of 62 percent, and big government by a margin of 75 percent, rising to 81 percent among Latino immigrants. Politically speaking, 30 percent of them are self-described liberals, compared to 21 percent of the general population. And, according to the Pew Research Center, 55 percent of Hispanics have a negative view of capitalism, higher than white and black Americans.

None of those are remotely “natural Republican” positions.

That doesn’t mean Republicans should write off the Hispanic vote. The same McLaughlin survey mentioned above notes that immigration reform isn’t as important to Hispanics as healthcare, which ranked second, and the economy, which is issue number one. The rapidly unraveling healthcare bill is so corrosive to Democrats that the president has kicked the rule of law to the curb and unilaterally postponed the employer mandate by one year to get through the 2014 election. Republicans should make a pitched effort to offer every ethnic group a viable alternative. As for the economy, the current official unemployment rate for Hispanics is 9.1 percent, compared to 7.6 percent for the nation as a whole. Thus, Republicans must also make the case that legalizing at least an additional 11 million illegal aliens — a number many consider a low estimate — will make it even harder for Hispanic citizens to find jobs.

More importantly, Republicans need to realize that the public in general has no use for a Senate immigration bill that has been revealed as a complete fraud with regard to border control. Virtually every aspect of it can be waived by the Secretary of Homeland Security, absent any repercussions. This reality flies in the face of CNN/ORC international survey that finds 62 percent of Americans believe border security should be the main focus of U.S. immigration policy, compared to just 36 percent who want a so-called pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens to be the foremost priority.

Yet the most likely reason the Senate bill will die in the House can be boiled down to one word: comprehensive. Comprehensive reform, whether it is 2,400 unread pages of comprehensive healthcare reform or 1190 unread pages of comprehensive immigration reform, is riddled with special political deals, exceptions, loopholes, and waivers — all of which can be manipulated with impunity.

Much to their overwhelming dismay, a majority of Americans have discovered the disturbing details of ObamaCare, after it was passed, exactly as Democrats intended. House Republicans have no incentive whatsoever to repeat that folly, given the realities of the Hispanic vote’s current impact, the fact that many of their members represent districts with insignificant levels of Hispanic population, and the possibility that the results of the mid-term election in 2014 may put them in a far better bargaining position than they are in now.

Furthermore, the fact that border control as a stand-alone policy is completely anathema to Democrats should tell them everything they need to know about the pitfalls of comprehensive immigration reform. If enacted now, it will be carried out by a president with no respect for the separation of powers, an Attorney General presiding over the most racially-polarized Justice Department in memory, and a clueless DHS Secretary.

On Wednesday, White House press secretary Jay Carney said that passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill has “always been an uphill battle.” If House Republicans care about the future of the nation, it should stay that way until a genuinely sensible series of reforms — each standing individually on its own merits — can be enacted.

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  • Sheik Yerbouti

    Republicans routinely ignore their primary constituency and even stab them in the back. Minority voters see this. How can republicans expect to win the hearts and minds of minority voters when they clearly have no problem screwing their core constituents?

  • rrpjr

    I don’t agree that it’s dead. Boehner, true his terrified-to-the-marrow GOP soul, repeatedly asserts “something needs to be done.” Boehner and his tribe of moral pygmies are FAR more afraid of the Progressive media’s power to label them racists and obstructionists than they are of the GOP base.

  • The Dead Critic

    Go on national TV Mr. Presidente’, and ask this question to all legalized immigrants. “Do you think it’s fair for me to legalize millions of illegal visitors to this country, that may very well in the end compete for, or steal your job, as cheaper labor.”

    • keyesforpres

      Illegal visitors? Try, invaders.

  • mtnhikerdude

    “Amnesty” , the final nail in America’s coffin.

  • Gee

    We have more than enough laws already – how about something truly different – enforce them!

    • objectivefactsmatter

      Why would anyone expect new laws to be superior to the unenforced laws they’re supposed to replace? Isn’t it obvious that the politicians are gaining more and more freedom and audacity to simply do what they want?

  • HuandaRulz

    If Amnesty passes the GOP dies. If it fails America wins, still some in the GOP will be ousted, Rubio and McCain amongst them.

  • onecornpone

    Anyone who reads Boehner’s words and assumes he won’t in some lame-duck moment, allow this bill to surface, is naive, IMO. He will however keep it in his arsenal to use against WE the TEA, if needed.

    This weapon is too dangerous to leave in the hands of a man without principle.

    • TexasStomp

      My grocery list is too dangerous to leave in Boehner’s hands! Man’s a walkin cf. Who, and I want names, is responsible for this idiot becoming speaker?

      • not you

        i think it is determined by “seniority” and the majority party “votes” him up

        • TexasStomp

          God forbid anyone in politics get a job because they’re the best suited for it, right?

          • not you

            how many honest and upright persons do you know that are in politics or connected to politicians?

            Politics is the business of legal plunder, it attracts the dishonest, immoral and unwholesome people who are into plundering like a moth to a bright flame.

            so unfortunately, they are “best suited” for it

      • onecornpone

        Who… is responsible for this idiot…?

        Hell if I know Stomp. If you will recall, I took plenty of heavy flack from the readership at the Bigs for screaming from the rooftops that putting Boehner into the Speakership was akin to putting the fox in charge of the hen house.

        My, my what a difference a term makes, but you’ll notice no one made any serious challenge of that glassy-eyed ole drunk last year. It seems the only chance we have to get rid of the imbecile is to kick him upstairs to the U.S. Senate, where he can join the Mc Loon/ Graham (Maverick) wing of the (R) party.

        Boehner is the personification of duplicitous political animal.

    • Liliana Rawks

      Funny you should say that. The bill hasn’t left the Senate and sits in the grubby little hands of Harry Reid. Yes, a man without principle.

  • keyesforpres

    Border security. PERIOD. NO legal status for illegals. PERIOD. If you give illegals legal status they can send for family members and our country will be destroyed…even if the border is sealed tighter than drum.
    I do not believe most people want the border sealed before amnesty. I know that most people want the border sealed and illegals deported. Period. Many will self deport if we crack down on them.
    NO immigrant should be allowed on the dole.

    • Liliana Rawks

      It was the way they worded the poll question — it had “pathway to citizenship” in it. I’d sure like to see a poll just asking if they support a pathway to citizenship.

  • Anamah

    I hope they will kill this new scam; this immigration reform and obamacare are two heavy pollutant of our society.

    Republicans must find the way to repeal both monsters.

    We must take care of what can be recover from this hyper regulated and mindless people Americans became…

    Do we have two more things to kick out … progressives, radicals,communists, socialists, Islamics and all what can be included as these enemies… including the enemies already inside…

    Please folks, stop this madness!

  • http://www.americarepublicspring.com/ Marvin E. Fox

    A very good article and, right on. The Republicans must realize that conservatives are not buying the hogwash that the existing laws are unenforceable, so we need a wider spectrum of new laws that will be enforceable. If that stupidity were true, the new laws could not be a cure for the unenforceable problems of the old laws.

    Our laws and our Constitution does not belong the our government, and certainly does not belong to the politicians we elect to represent us. Our Constitution belongs to us! Its purpose is to be a means for we the people to control our government.
    Both parties are sorry excuses for representative constitutional government and are the cause of the present disgust with government. The 2014 election should be a humdinger.
    Marvin Fox

  • bluffcreek1967

    I urge every true American patriot to NEVER forgive or forget who the traitors were in this whole mess of ‘comprehensive immigration reform.’ Our elected officials from both parties have betrayed the American people, and they’ve almost been successful in handing over our once great nation to a mass of third-world Mexican peasant invaders!

    They have done everything in their power to destroy the founding stock of our nation (whites) as well as ruin its dominant culture (white, european). They have mocked and opposed every white American who has tried to preserve their heritage in this land – and so, we must NEVER forget these traitors from both political aisles and call out their betrayal every chance we get.

  • Liliana Rawks

    Interesting how quickly the GOP bought into the Dem narrative after the election. Didn’t they bother to perform their own research? A mere 8 percent of the electorate? Come on, pander to the rest of us.

  • paulyz

    Amazing how Hispanics are brainwashed into believing Republicans do not like more Hispanics in the Country! We do not want ILLEGALS of ANY nationality or race here because of the burdens & problems they create to LEGAL Americans & Immigrants. Would they want it any other way?

  • paulyz

    ALSO, our nation is becoming overpopulated as is.

  • paulyz

    Jay Carney in the last paragraph states the exact opposite of what the Obama Administration & the Democrats are pushing, “another comprehensive Amnesty.” Most of the House Republicans & 2/3 of GOP Senators want the stand alone measures with fully securing our borders, (as is LAW) First, Mandatory E-verify, & stopping visa overstays. These LAWS have been ignored from the “so-called, one-time Amnesty” of 1986.