Kerry’s Oh-So-’90s Security Nonsense

John KerryOriginally published by the Jerusalem Post.

Like his supporters, US Secretary of State John Kerry has apparently been asleep for the past 20 years.

Kerry has proffered us security arrangements, which he claims will protect Israel from aggression for the long haul. They will do this, he argues, despite the fact that his plan denies the Jewish state physically defensible borders in the framework of a peace deal with the PLO.

There are several serious problems with Kerry’s arrangements. But in the context of Kerry’s repeated claims that his commitment to Israel’s security is unqualified, their most glaring flaws are rooted in their disregard for all the lessons we have learned over the past two decades.

Kerry’s security arrangements rest on three assumptions. First, they assume that the main threats Israel will face in an era of “peace” with the Palestinians will emanate from east of the Jordan River. The main two scenarios that have been raised are the threat of terrorists and advanced weaponry being smuggled across the border; and a land invasion or other type of major aggression against Israel, perpetrated by Iraqis moving across Jordan.

It is to fend off these threats, Kerry argues, that he would agree to a temporary deployment of Israeli forces in the Jordan Valley even after Israel expels all or most of the 650,000 Israeli civilians who live in Judea, Samaria and eastern, northern and southern Jerusalem.

We will consider the strategic wisdom of his plans for defending Israel from threats east of the Jordan River presently. But first we need to ask whether a threat from across the border would really be the only significant threat that Israel would face after surrendering Judea, Samaria and much of Jerusalem to the PLO.

The answer to this question is obvious to every Israeli who has been awake for the past 20 years, since Israel started down the “land for peace” road with the PLO. The greatest threat Israel will face in an era of “peace” with the Palestinians will not come from east of the Jordan. It will come from west of the Jordan – from the Jew-free Palestinian state.

The Palestinians don’t give us peace for land. They give us war for land. Whether they support the PLO, Hamas or anything in between, the Palestinians have used every centimeter of land that Israel has given them as launching bases for terrorist and political attacks against Israel.

There is no peace camp in Palestinian society. There are only terrorist organizations that compete for power and turf. And to the extent there are moderates in Palestinian society, they are empowered when Israel is in control, and weakened when Israel transfers power to the PLO. Back in halcyon 1990s, Israeli supporters of “land for peace” told us, “It’s better to be smart than right.”

By this they meant that for peace, we should be willing to give up our historical homeland, and even our eternal capital, despite the fact that they are ours by legal and historic right. That peace, they promised, would protect us, neutralize the threat of terrorism and make the entire Arab world love us.

Over the past 20 years, we learned that all these wise men were fools. Even as the likes of Tom Friedman and Jeremy Ben Ami continue to tell us that the choice is between ideology – that is, Jewish rights and honor – and peace, today we know that they are full of it.

Our most peaceful periods have been those in which we have been fully deployed in Judea and Samaria. The more fully we deploy, the more we exercise our legal and national rights to sovereign power in those areas, the safer and more peaceful Israeli and Palestinian societies alike have been.

The only way to be smart, we have learned, is by being right. The only way to secure peace is by insisting that our rights be respected. We won’t get peace for land. We will get war – not from the Iraqis or anyone else to our east, but from the Palestinians. And since the Palestinians are the people Kerry is intending to empower with his peace plan and his security arrangements, both his peace plan and his security arrangements are deeply dangerous and hostile.

As for the threat from east of the Jordan, here too, Kerry’s security arrangements are absurd. Kerry and his supporters claim that by enabling Israel to maintain a limited force along border with Jordan for a period of 5-15 years, he will build, in the words of Jeffrey Goldberg, his biggest fan, “an impregnable security system.”

But this is ridiculous. When Israel withdrew from the international border between Gaza and Egypt, it wrongly assumed two things – first, that the regime of Hosni Mubarak would always be in power, and second, that Mubarak’s regime would secure the border.

In the event, Mubarak, Israel’s peace partner, did not secure the border. According to then Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin, in the three months after Israel withdrew from Gaza in August 2005, the Palestinians smuggled more weapons into the Gaza Strip from Egypt than they had in the previous 38 years, when Israel controlled the border.

And of course Mubarak did not remain in power. He was replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood.

While it is true that for now, the Egyptian military has wrested control over the country from the Muslim Brotherhood, and is reportedly cooperating with Israel in the Sinai, there is no reason to assume that the present conditions will prevail.

Kerry’s security arrangements along the Jordan Valley are predicated on two similarly dim-witted notions. First, that the Hashemite regime will remain in power forever. And second, that the Hashemites will want to protect the border forever.

Given the instability of the Arab world as a whole and the fact that the overwhelming majority of Jordanians are Palestinians, the most likely scenario is that the Hashemites will be overthrown at some point in the eminently foreseeable future.

Moreover, even if King Abdullah II manages to remain in power, his children are half Palestinian. So even if the Hashemites remain in power, there is no reason to believe that their commitment to peace with Israel will be maintained over time. This is doubly true given the rise of jihadist forces aligned with Iran and al-Qaida battling for power in Syria and Iraq.

The third foundation of Kerry’s security arrangements is that Israel can trust America’s security guarantees.

This position of course was completely discredited by the nuclear deal that Kerry and President Barack Obama have concluded with Iran, which paves the way for the genocidal Islamic Republic to acquire nuclear weapons.

After the Iran deal, only the most reckless and irresponsible Israeli leaders could take American security guarantees at face value.

Israelis frustrate the land-for-peace processors from Washington because we have actually been awake for the past 20 years. And we refuse forget what we know.

Land for peace was killed by Palestinian terrorists.

Jordan is not forever.

And US security guarantees are about as useful as a three dollar bill.

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  • Dov Blair Epstein

    Selling bridges is Obama’s backup vocation.

  • camp7

    Kerry is a dolt. He prostitutes for an administration that promotes Islamism and some complicated way to globalism to benefit Ohole’s dream of grandeur. When Lurch comes to visit, Israelis should kindly give him a hamburger with fries, pat him on the head, then send him home to carry his conversation in a mirror. Pfffft.

    • Sheik Yerbouti

      Thurston is only chasing the caviar, this plan has Obama written all over it.

  • ConcernedCitizen999

    Tom Friedman? – ” full of it”.
    Kerry? – “dim-witted”.
    Caroline Glick? – Magnificent !
    I love it. But her job is so easy. All she does is substitute common sense reality for utopian delusions, Islamic taquia and Communist propaganda.

    • victoryman

      Caroline Glick for Sec/State. Tom Friedman – certifiable. Kerry – should stick to making sure Tereeezza has a plentiful supply of Jack Daniels in the basement. QED.

  • ingmarmxy321

    My Uncle Harrison got a
    nearly new blue Buick Regal GS by work using a laptop. recommended you read

  • theoprinse

    Islam must be eliminated from the face of the earth but one has to acknowledge that the British political elite, British Petroleum, MI6 and the American political elite, Exxon, CIA are on their side for a long time !

  • kilfincelt

    “Clueless” Kerry strikes again.

  • gornisht

    Where has Kerry been for the last 20 years? If you were married to A Heinz family member, you would not need to find yourself! Living in a ketchup bottle insulated himself to the realities of life! I almost believe that Kerry tries hard, but most of the times he really has fallen off the turnip truck. really this happened to Humpty Dumpty , remember they couldn’t put him together again.

  • justquitnow

    Well if Jordan is going to be overthrown, the muslim brotherhood is still somehow in control of Egypt and Iran is going to nuke Israel anyway, then why are we making such a fuss? Just let the whole area implode. Maybe I would feel different if I was a Jew and thought that God gave me that land.

  • Myrtle Linder

    Kerry is only interested in kowtowing to Obama, while he works to sell Israel out.

  • Marnott

    Where has be been? Parking his yacht tax free in Maryland.

  • Bert

    Complaining only about Kerry and Obama is futile. The problem really lies with our corrupt, cowardly, Jewish leaders who fear ever speaking truth to power. This allows our enemies to force our leaders to accept lies that mean suicide for Israel. Jewish leaders in both the U.S. and Israel still continue to accept the lie of Israeli “occupation” which justifies the crazy “two state solution”. Having lied for so long they have painted themselves into a corner where they cannot now change their story. If they decided to tell the truth now about Israeli land rights no one would believe them. This is how our secular-atheist self-debased leaders have endangered the lives of Israel’s six million Jews. Israel’s enemies have simply taken advantage of opportunities given them by the Jews themselves.

    • objectivefactsmatter

      I think the problems come from seeing everything through Cold War paradigms. Once the Cold War “ended” with the Soviet Union sort of dissolving, the idea was that we could sort of create enough incentives for all the parties to come to peace with each other. Nobody was forced to deal with jihad as a fundamental motive until it became utterly undeniable. By that time we had already forced Israel in to the idiotic, delusional Oslo Accords. And the jihadis learned enough about the politics of global deception to sell this BS to the rest of the world by the time a few of us woke up to the realities of jihad and began sounding the alarms.

      This is almost entirely the fault of the left with plenty of blame left over for the “moderate conservatives.” This is true for all of Judeo Christian civilization. We were fighting among ourselves over the deceptions of Marxism and Marxist derived ideas. Meanwhile the barbarians were undermining our borders in every sense. And not a lot has changed since then except that we traded moderate George Bush for radical red jihadi 0’Bama.

  • Obey..!!

    Kerry is an utter buffoon, blinded by his craving for attention and petty glory;
    when, ultimately, he will be just another fall guy for the Vacationer,
    as expendable as toilet paper.

    • defcon 4

      And to think I voted for this steaming pile…

  • Anukem Jihadi

    Kerry is on a fishing expedition. Will they bite though?

  • marvin boggs

    Israel keeps dealing with Gaza in HALF measures. They should buy or build MOABs and drop one every time there’s a rocket or mortar attack from Gaza. MOAB is designed to destroy bunkers and tunnels like HAMAS uses to store their missiles and munitions. The shock and awe from the massive blast would also chill HAMAS and the Gazan people.HAMAS would do everything to keep its sects from launching attacks. I believe it would only take one or two MOABs to stop the attacks from Gaza permanently.Plus,use of MOAB doesn’t risk any Israeli soldiers or costly armored vehicles.
    It’s time Israel did the job right.BOTH sides keep on doing the same thing,over and over,expecting different results each time.
    The muzzies make attacks,Israel retaliates HALFway,doesn’t finish the job,and the muzzies lick their wounds,rest and rearm until the next time. A stupid cycle.

    • defcon 4

      155mm or 105mm artillery rounds would be much cheaper than MOAB’s.

      • marvin boggs

        6″ artillery doesn’t have the capability to take out the deep tunnels and bunkers where Hamas keeps it’s arms and shelters it’s leaders and fighters. Israel has already tried 6″ artillery,it didn’t work,same for 2000 lb bombs dropped from planes.
        MOAB’s extreme overpressure would destroy the bunkers and whatever is inside them. The massive blast would provided shock and awe,demoralizing the enemy,….besides eliminating much of them.

        • defcon 4

          Artillery barrages could be used as form of urban renewal in Gaza. Let them live in their caves, just not on the surface of the earth.

  • defcon 4

    “Israel expels all or most of the 650,000 Israeli civilians” So the zero, through his mouthpiece Kerry, is proposing ethnic cleansing as a path to peace?

  • defcon 4

    “there is no reason to assume that the present conditions will prevail.” A good observation WRT Egypt. I’ve read that Egyptian media is comparing Sissi to Nasser, which doesn’t fill me w/confidence. It always seem islam0fascist states are only good as their latest dictator.

  • marvin boggs

    If a “State of Palestine” is created,that new nation has the right to purchase arms for it’s defense,same as any other nation. That means the “Palestinians” can legally buy(or be “gifted”) tanks,SAM batteries,fighter jets,mobile or fixed tube artillery,etc. A “Palestinian” SAM battery would cover the entire Pal State,along with most of Israel. It would have the range to shoot down Israeli aircraft over Israel,just as they are taking off. Much of Israel would be in range of it’s tube artillery.(anyone recall the Syrian artillery that often shelled Israel in the north,before Israel took the Golan Heights?) For the armor,it’s just a short trip to the heart of Israel. You can be certain that once the “Palestinians” built up their forces,they’d turn such weapons against Israel.
    The Palestinians have not demonstrated they can peaceably run their own territories,they should not have a state until they can.

  • PAthena

    As Caroline Glick points out, the “deal” President Barack Hussein Obama made with Iran for Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons, explicitly aimed at Israel, means that any assurances he has made to Israel about defending it are worthless.
    Remember that President Obama was for 20 years a member of the church of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright in Chicago, of “black liberation” theology, anti-white, and anti-semitic. Obama is a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood (and has denounced the overthrow of Morsi in Egypt), and may well be a member himself. (His half-brother in Kenya is a leader.) His former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had as her close aide, Huma Abedin, whose family are all Muslim Brotherhood (and Sisterhood). See Michelle Bachmann’s accounts of the Muslim Brotherhood people in the U.S. government.

  • danshanteal

    The Glick is the most astute observer of the problems in the Middle East. Look at Gaza and you see the future. Clinton, Rice, Power, Obie, Kerry and Jarrett make up this stuff as they go along. It’s brought chaos virtually everywhere. 2014 will be a watershed year. Bibi has to get his head on straight and do the right thing. Do you get my meaning?