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California Running Out of Kids to Subsidize its Teacher’s Union Pensions

Posted By Daniel Greenfield On January 11, 2013 @ 8:13 pm In The Point | 14 Comments

As mentioned before, blue states have a serious problem. Lots of teachers and administrators with big pensions and a shortage of kids for them to mishandle. For example, take Detroit. (Please)

The Detroit Public Schools could be faced with a staffing dilemma in a couple of years if steps are not taken to reduce the number of teachers employed by the district. If projections of dwindling student counts are accurate, the district could soon have 1,800 more teachers than it needs, with the annual bill to pay them costing in the range of $100 million… This would mean that the district would have lost 61 percent of its student enrollment since 2003-04 when it had 150,000 students.

This isn’t completely fatal for Detroit, since it will just go on feeding off Michigan, while boasting that it now has class sizes of 6 students to a teacher. But it’s a big problem on a state level. Take California. (Please.)

In 1970, six years after the end of the baby boom, children made up more than one-third of California’s population. By 2030, they will account for just one-fifth. The state’s birthrate fell to 1.94 children per woman in 2010, below the replacement level of 2.1 children, according to the study. California’s rate is lower than the overall U.S. rate of 2.06 children in 2012, according to the Central Intelligence Agency.

This is really bad news, because you can’t tax the dead. Pension plans depend on new generations showing up and paying the bills. California’s aging demographics move it into the category of a retirement community and its high taxes take it out of that category because who wants to have their wealth drained by an incompetent and ceaselessly greedy state government.

California’s young population is trending non-white. Latinos are a majority in the under 18 category. 50.4 percent of live births are Latinos. And 21 percent of Latinos have an income below the poverty level. A quarter of Latino children live in poverty. That means California’s growth population is also the most expensive and the least likely to provide tax revenues. All this sounds good to liberals, but it’s an economic disaster that puts California on the road to becoming Detroit.

You can build a whole lot of schools and fill them full of teachers, but Latino births, though higher than the native population are still falling, and that leaves you with a skeleton state and a lot of unfunded pensions that no one is going to pay for when all the “old white guys” who are the current revenue source are dead.

With more than 90% of the state’s children under age 10 born in the state, “the majority of the next generation of workers will have been shaped by California’s health and education systems,” Mr. Myers said.

The birthrate for Hispanics, who account for 51% of children under 18 in the state, was slightly above replacement level. But Hispanic birthrates are seeing the steepest drop of any group and are expected to fall to the replacement level in 2020, the report said.

And there’s your outcome of that “shaping”. California’s health and education systems are unsustainable. They destroy their own future.

And it’s not just California.

California’s demographic shift mirrors that of many Northeast and Midwest states, including New York, Massachusetts, Illinois and Michigan, where the percentage of children fell even more sharply from 2000 to 2010

Meanwhile Chicago is down to its lowest population level in 90 years.


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