Don’t Write Off the White Vote

Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is a New York writer focusing on radical Islam. He is completing a book on the international challenges America faces in the 21st century.


young-voters-poll-0614-artGetting an early start on primary season, Rand Paul stopped by New Hampshire and, according to an article, “urged New Hampshire Republicans to become more diversified.”

New Hampshire is 94.6% white, 2.9% Latino and 1.3% Black. I don’t know the exact diversity statistics for New Hampshire Republicans, but if they get a half-black and half-Latino guy in a wheelchair to run for something, they will have covered all the statistical bases.

“We need to grow bigger,” Rand Paul said. “If you want to be the party of white people, we’re winning all the white votes. We’re a diverse nation. We’re going to win when we look like America.”

Looking like America is common advice these days. What does America look like? For now it still looks more like New Hampshire than like California. And despite that, Democrats scored some big wins in New Hampshire in the last election.

Obama won New Hampshire 52 to 46 and it probably wasn’t the black vote that put him over the top. He picked up over 100,000 votes in Hillsborough County, which is 90 percent white. Clearly Republicans aren’t winning all the white votes in New Hampshire. Or in Kentucky.

Rand Paul’s Kentucky looks a lot like New Hampshire. It’s 88.9% white. In his 2010 Senate election, Paul won 59% of the white vote and his opponent won 86% of the black vote. Two years later, Romney won 59% of the white vote and his opponent won 93% of the black vote. Both men scored the exact same percentage of the white vote.

Some might try to find a silver lining in that Rand Paul won 13 percent of the black vote, but he wasn’t running against a black candidate. In 2004, Bush won 12 percent of the Kentucky black vote. Nearly the same amount as Rand Paul. More importantly, he won 64 percent of the white vote and 58 percent of the female vote to Rand Paul’s 51 percent. The female vote is far more important than picking up minority votes in New Hampshire or Kentucky.

Romney did not lose because he lost the Latino vote. That’s a myth which has been discredited, but is still being used to push for an illegal alien amnesty. Instead of trying to be diverse for the sake of diversity, the GOP might try doing what the other side did, increasing the turnout for its base by actually appealing to them.

The Republican National Convention in 2012 was a study in diversity. It was possibly even more diverse than the Democratic National Convention. It also didn’t work.

Diversity is familiar enough to be met with casual contempt. Every company trots out stock photos overflowing with stock minorities so that they can look like America or some part of America. It impresses absolutely no one. “Looking like America” is slang for racial tokenism which is both patronizing and insulting.

Common skin color alone does not win elections. If it did, the Republican Party could just push out countless white Democrats in precarious districts by running black candidates against them. The idea that skin color alone is representation is still the law and its emotional resonance is sometimes undeniable, but emotional identification is also based on more than just race. And representation cannot be reduced to racial diversity as a winning strategy.

The Republican Party has two Latino senators and one Black senator. That tops the Democratic Party in the “Looking like California” metrics but doesn’t move the political numbers forward.

“We need to have black people, brown people, white people, we need to have people with tattoos, without tattoos, with long hair, with short hair, with beards, without beards,” Rand Paul  said. “We need to look more like America. We need to appeal to the working class; we need to appeal to all segments of the country.”

Let’s assume that the Republican Party gets people with hair of all sizes, what then? Talking about appealing to the working class is nice, but Rand Paul lost the under $30,000 vote. He tied for the $30,000 to $49,000 vote. He only broke out with the above $50,000 voters. That was the same thing that happened to Romney. And unlike Romney, race couldn’t be blamed for those results. Not when Bush decisively won those same voters in Kentucky in 2004.

In 2004, Bush tied Kerry among the $30,000 to $49,000 voters. In 2012, Romney lost them by 8 percent. McCain had lost them by 7 percent in 2008. Grafton County, the site of Obama’s biggest margin of victory in New Hampshire, is 95% white and its median household income is $41,962. That’s well below the median household income in the country, but that only hovers a little above $50,000.

In 2000, Bush nearly tied Kerry in Grafton County. In 2008, Obama won it by 63 percent. Instead of looking to see why Republicans can’t win the Latino vote, it might be a good idea to see why Republicans have begun losing Grafton County; which looks a whole lot like America.

Amnesty for illegal aliens will hit low-income voters hardest. It will punish the very voters that Republicans need in order to win and build up demographics of voters who are not going to vote Republican anyway.

Republicans would be foolish to give up on minority voters, but even more foolish to give up on low-income white voters. In 2011, Republicans had pulled ahead among $30,000 voters, going from 37 to 47 percent since the 2008 election. The real question worth asking about the 2012 election is what happened to those numbers?

The Republican Party does not need to “look like America.” It needs to actually look at America. And if it can do that, if it can find common ground with low-income voters, then it will find that it has increased its share among minority voters as well. It worked for Reagan. It might just work in 2016.

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  • PowerTDPeople1848

    Anyone who identifies themselves as part of the "white vote" is necessarily racist. "Whiteness" is a cynical construct developed by white supremacists in order to denigrate the very real ethnocultural identities of minorities forged by centuries of white racial oppression. This is becoming a BROWN country, and you reactionaries better get used to it! The original "illegals" to North America were white Europeans, and if you don't like what America is becoming, I suggest you go back to Europe. Down with racism and capitalism!

    • Andy Lewis

      Or, we could just police our borders. Then we wouldn't have to go back anywhere!

    • AnOrdinaryMan

      White Europeans weren't "illegals", as the so-called Native Americans also came from outside of America. Many American Indian tribes came from the South sea islands; others came over the land bridge from Asia. To follow your reasoning, nobody should have emigrated anywhere. I suggest you go to Mexico, and try to become a Mexican citizen. See what happens.

    • johnb

      Anyone who identifies themselves as part of "brown vote" is necessarily racist. "Browness" is a cynical construct developed by brown supremacists in order to denigrate the very real ethnocultural identities of majorities forged by centuries of European technical superiority. This is becoming a Tea Party country, and you communists better get used to it! The original "legals" to North America were white Europeans, and if you don't like what America is becoming, I suggest you go back to your third-world, pesthole countries. Down with brown racism and communism!!!

    • SCREW SOCIALISM

      Power2DaPeeples,

      I suggest you go back to Africa/Latin/Central/South America.

      Which "BROWN" country is your role model of what the US should aspire to become?

      Down with racism, islamofascism and socialism!

    • Shirley Greene

      this is what America is becoming and fast. one by one our cities are becoming war zones controlled by gangs and violence is everywhere. the hard working decent person only wants a safe neighborhood to raise their children but are not getting that as we watch kids being bullied by the thousands. then you have obummers boyz sharptongue, wright farraconvict and the panthers calling for the kiling of whites and their babies. so do you like what America is becoming? the democraps would rather get votes than ensure the security of its citizens. the more immigrants and welfare babies the more violence we see till our cities fall to violence one by one

    • Rob

      So you're a Marxist. Got it. Which means you're aligned — by choice! — with the forces which murdered 100 million people in the last century.

      Go to Hell.

    • pagegl

      Your first two sentences demonstrate that you are as racist as you accuse people commenting here to be. You also should check your history; every human on the American continents is a foreigner. Those who became "native Americans" probably came to the new world via the Bering Strait. There is some evidence that Nordic peoples (that would be some of the most lily white types) settled in North America before the original "native Americans" were here.

      Given your racist rant and the fact you seem to hate capitalism, perhaps you ought to go live somewhere where your narrow-minded attitudes are more at home. I might suggest North Korea, your immigration there just might raise the average IQ of it and the US.

    • Questions

      We're becoming a "brown" country not by accident or historical inevitability, but because of laws, policies and enforcement practices created by people like you. As for white people (like me) "going back" to Europe — hey, buddy, go back to wherever you came from. Europe is turning brown anyway — Islamic brown.

    • antisharia

      It's people like you, degenerates with IQ's that don't even hit 80, who have never had an original thought, who can only parrot what the media and academia tell you, who have done so much damage to the world. Vermin like you needs to be exterminated.

      • Questions

        Much as I can't stand self-hating whites, calling someone "vermin" who needs to be "exterminated" is way over the top. You may be too soft-headed, "antisharia," to understand this, but yours is the language of Nazism.

    • JoJoJams

      And here I thought PTDPeops was being sarcastic at first!! Wow! What a REAL racist! The sad thing is, he/she obviously can't even see that! Too sad! Child, I suggest you go read some Thomas Sowell, the one man in this tiny little planet that I respect and admire, more than nearly everyone.

    • Mary Sue

      I don't care about whether people are white or brown.

      I do care however, if they're freaking communist. White, Black, Brown, Yellow, RED, whatever. Commies are bad, mkay.

    • candy

      Really? And what immigration laws were violated by people that arrived in 1620, 1640,1690,1710……..none because there were no laws,government,states or country .

      And who are those white supremacist ? Are you referring to the democratic KKK that started in 1868 that terrorized African American citizens and murdered Republicans?
      Or the democratic party that was created in 1857 to protect slave owners?
      Those Indian and black slave owners really hated giving up their slaves.
      Please enlighten us oh wise one.

      What exactly is a cynical construct?

      And to fill in your apparent lack of knowledge "whites" are not a singular ,race,religion ,culture or ethnicity . But a racist like you neither knows nor cares about that.

    • UCSPanther

      As a fourth generation white Canadian with mostly British blood and pro-capitalist and conservative views, I would like to say one thing, marxist:

      Get bent!

    • Drakken

      Us European/Americans built this country, and if and I emphasize the word if the US becomes a so called brown country,welcome to the 3rd world, for in case it has escaped your liberal rose colored glasses, every other countries in the world that are not Eurocentric, are sh**holes with the exception of Japan. There is no unity in diversity, there is only a Balkans in the making.Please by all means, show me where anywhere on this earth that multiculturalism has worked and not ended up a bloodbath? Please I dare you.

  • davarino

    I agree with the writer's last statement. Do what Reagan did, appeal to the masses. Stop worrying about all this race crap and just do and say what is important to everyone.

  • johnb

    When the "experts" say the Pubbies have to do more to attract "minorities" what they mean, of course, is that like the Democrat Party, the Pubbies must pander to those minorities. Promise them things, material stuff that is not promised to other Americans. Where in the constitution is that allowed? Nowhere, but those "experts" have not managed to come up with viable ways of attracting minorities without promising to give them things. Which is what those minorities want. The dirty secret is they vote for the Democrats expecting to get tax-payer funded goodies in return.

  • Jane Larson Baer

    Pandering to illegals will mean that poor whites stay home an ddon't vote because no one represents their best interests. Thus Republicans will lose given that you can't give away more than Democrats do of poor whites' jobs and neighborhoods, in the war of which party gives away the most of what poor whites have, Democrats will win.In my liberal college california town, there are rich whites and token minorities (radical) in the college and no poor whites. There are courses on the wonderful "magical Mexican Catholism" but born again Evangelical white Americans are ridiculed and "white trash" is a common phrase of college educated people here as if humans can be trash.

    • justaguy

      You do know of course, that people of color (whatever color, except white), have hated white people for centuries. This is true in every country & culture on earth. And it will never change. Now that you have in the most powerful country on earth, a person of color in charge of everything, their voices are just easier to hear, as they’re speaking a bit louder than usual; a LOT louder than usual. This is not my opinion, this is found in history books going back centuries.

      No one who is on the side of truth and honesty will deny it. I know the reason that this is so, but I’m not going to start a race riot by bring it up. People of color have their resentment just barely under the surface. I’m not scratching that itch. Not here. Not now. Not ever.

      There are some truths that won’t bear the cost of being laid open.

      • mohamed stone

        you are correct but they point the finger at whites, do you think whites get a fair shake when blacks do the hiring? look at how their leaders and preachers preach hate for jews and the devil whites and no one calls them out for it

      • Drakken

        I'm afraid whether you like it or not, that anti-European sentiment is going to rise to the surface for even the most liberal of libtards to see and there will be no escaping it.

  • Indioviejo

    I think Rand Paul is making a mistake when he suggest pandering to minorities for votes. It is delusional. People vote for values, ideology, economic interest and what not, but when you pander to any group you lose others. The only way forward is to go back to conservative values and be true to its principals.

    • Tammy Smith

      black leaders will do nothing at all unless it helps blacks. that is causing the big divide between Republicans and democraps. Republicans are more for America . Whites are seeing that no one cares about any of their agendas and when whites speak out they are labeled as racist. Also many whites believe they owe blacks a living and should make every sacrifice to appease them. blacks have the black caucus to make sure everything is done for blacks only and screw the rest of us

      • Dennis X

        And whites have the republicans.

        • Mary Sue

          You're ignoring that at least half the white population is Leftist Democrat, dude.

  • jimmy

    Appeal??
    Appeal means plea, beg, sympathy. It means giving sheeple more free stuff and relieving them of any responsibility for their lives.
    The white vote failed because they weren’t offered a real candidate, a real leader, just another politician. And instead of voting against the POtuS, they voted against their lack of choice by staying home.

  • SCREW SOCIALISM

    Voter ID to prevent fraudulent elections.

    Require English – no patronizing those who don't have the brains to learn proper English.

    If they can't learn English, then they don't have the brain power to build and maintain America. Let 'em go back to their non-English speaking third world shanty towns.

  • hikerdude

    This administration is morphing into a reun of Nazi Germany. The new Swastikas are the Hope and Change symbols.

    • Drakken

      Not even close to Nazi Germany, an almost exact parallel to the old Soviet Union.

  • Western Spirit

    Republicans truly are the stupid party. They don't get their base out because they don't represent their base. As long as they act like Democrat lite they won't get elected because that's not appealing to their base. They are appealing to the Democrats base. Then blame their defeat on the wrong premise.

    What's so great about diversity? The more diverse we are the more conflicts we'll have. That's why we've been divided up into groups by the Left, America's enemy. When what works is out of many one, this is what works, we need to be simply Americans and cut out this diversity crap.

    Because people are people first and members of a group second. The group that works is the one that is truly inclusive—Americans— because that's looking out for the human needs of us all by following the Constitution and therefore the laws that make freedom work.

    • tammy smith

      Why do you think whites run from cities that become black 45 % or more, because they become violent places not fit to live or send you kids to school since the panthers are calling for the killing of whites and their babies and blacks leaders are continuing to educate and influence the black youth to keep the hate alive.

      • Dennis X

        I live a neighborhood that is 95% Black and we have absolutely no crime, please white people stay out!

        • mohamed stone

          that is a good recommendation and is farther proff that diversity does not work at all

        • Questions

          Gee, I 'd love to know where that is. Every neighborhood I've ever lived in, blacks were responsible for most of the crime.

          • Dennis X

            I'd tell you but then you'd want to move there and I can't have that!

          • Lan Astaslem

            stay in your black welfare public housing

          • Dennis X

            Is that located next to your trailer or is next to your meth lab, anyway hope that you and your cousin have many children and happy years together!

          • UCSPanther

            Racist much?

          • Mary Sue

            racist.

          • Mary Sue

            Gated Community. amirite?

        • Mary Sue

          where is this magical fairy land utopia

        • justaguy

          I understand. Wouldn’t want white folks coming in there and screwing up the neighborhood (like they always do every other place)

          Right?

          Right.

    • EarlyBird

      "Democrat lite"?! Are you kidding? How far to the right do you want the GOP to go? At least in terms of voters' perceptions, the extreme right wing dominates the Party. I mean, what's "Democrat lite" about these policy aims?

      Shut down the borders
      Zero gun control
      Ban all abortions
      Teach Creationism in school
      Anti-gay rights
      End all environmental protections
      War in Syria, Iran and pretty much every place where an Islamist exists
      Lower taxes
      Fewer regulations

      Shall I go on? The contrasts between the two parties are startling at least in terms of their rhetoric. I've never understood this notion that there's no difference between Dems and Reps.

      The extremist right wingers have won the GOP.

      • Drakken

        If the repubs go anymore left we'll be communists, sorry, your no conservative, your a lefty lib.

      • Western Spirit

        Extremist right wingers are simply traditional Americans the ones who built and maintained this country for centuries.

        Your definition of them as being extremists is the definition of the Leftists, America's enemies. People who hate this country because its values run counter to the Lefts totalitarian beliefs so the Left focuses on America's negatives to make America appear to be as "negative" as the Left wants it to be.

        Our country hasn't always lived up to its values but its still the best country in the world and it tries to become what it values. Human nature gets in the way, because of humanities flaws, but America keeps trying because it knows that people are people with the same needs as all of humanities needs. Primarily, among these needs is a need to be free from which all the rest descends including our prosperity.

        At least it always has been this way, when the traditionalist, a time when the so called right wing "extremists" were in charge. This, of course, was before the Left and its destructive values began to change our strength of out of many one into the weakness of out of one many reversing the melting pot in order to divide us to conquer us.

        Thus diversity isn't a valuable asset, it's crap and a technique to destroy us.

  • Shirley Greene

    wow why do you think Mexicans speak Spanish instead of something called Mexican? immigration from europe LOL they are no different than the US

    • Mary Sue

      well the mexicans are mostly either Mexican Indian, Spanish Immigrant sourced, or mix of both.

  • mohamed stone

    the problem is every one cares about how blacks feel, if blacks get pi$$ed off they riot or start calling every one else racist. no one cares about issues that bother whites they claim it is racial biased when in fact everything blacks do is for blacks only . blacks do not care for the United States the flag or any of that crap

  • Questions

    Daniel Greenfield has the makings of a genuine race realist. He grasps, as the preposterously overrated Senator Rand Paul does not, that race does matter. And by putting our blinders on, we risk becoming the Eloi in H.G. Wells' "The Time Machine" — food for the Morlocks.

    • EarlyBird

      In what way does race matter?

      I agree culture matters very, very much. What about race? What race would you like to see more of in the US, and less of in the US? Not culture, attitudes or values, but race. These are your own words, that race "matters."

      • Questions

        Well, since you've forced my hand, EarlyBird, I'll be blunt: Proportionately, if not in absolute numbers, I'd see to see more whites and fewer of everyone else.

      • Drakken

        When you stop importing people from the 1st world and starting importing the 3rd world out of some sick sense of guilt, you become the 3rd world.

  • gsr

    Unless mass immigration (legal and illegal) is greatly reduced, the USA will be kaput. We will be a minority-run (like we are today), banana republic, bi-cultural, bi-lingual crap-hole.

    • EarlyBird

      We need more of the right kind of immigrant to the US. That means educated, energetic, ambitious, entrepreneurial, hard working, decent people from all corners of the globe. Many people in China, India and S. Korea fit this bill, and desperately want to assimilate and live the American dream – and have the right habits and values to do so.

      Our totally dysfunctional immigration rules keep these people – often American college educated – out and in their own countries to compete with us in high tech industries, while we can't manage to control the flood of poor, uneducated, unskilled, illiterate in their own language folks coming across our southern border, for which the US is just a nice place to work and send money home.

      • guest

        Asians vote democrat roughly 3 out of 4, like latinos. we need to reduce all immigration. foreigners dont ave a 'right' to come to the USA. Our real unemployment rate is about 13%. Why do we need to import so many? Liberalism, thats why.

  • Ghostwriter

    Unfortunately,as long as we have idiots like David Duke and Dennis X running around spreading racist filth everywhere,we won't have a better America.

  • ttlueck

    I am saddened to hear that Rand Paul has fallen for the false ideology of cultural separation, otherwise known as "inclusivitity thru diversity". In reality if you want to "broaden the tent" nothing achieves this better than a truthful message of liberty and freedom. Offer to all Americans the thoughtful vision of a smaller government that is not constantly reaching into our lives in the most egregious ways. If republicans gave this message in a unified, clear and consistent manner they would have a greater impact on the political spectrum. I believe that republicans currently in office have fallen victim to the belief that liberal democrats embrace, that being that we citizens cannot survive without constant government Oversite and tinkering in our lives. Both party's vie for power and control for their own self interest, government is no longer For The People, but for the politicians and lobbiest, and corporate cronies who have bought influence. I had hoped that Rand Paul would not fall victim to political correctness or diversity issues to "broaden the tent", but appears he has listened to the serpent and eaten of the fruit.

  • iamwolfen

    I am saddened by Rand's pandering too. I had hoped for better, but it appears he has been drinking some of that poisoned kool aid, and he may not yet realize it, but he is losing the support that many of us were prepared to give him. Others took a wait and see approach, and it is looking more and more like they were right all along. I figured the establishment would be gunning for him, but looks like he is playing right into their diverse hands. Once credibility is lost, it won't be regained. I have decided that I no longer can stand with Rand, and my search will continue

    • Questions

      I never trusted him to begin with. And his father, though back in the Nineties a race realist, has become the 180-degree opposite.