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Illegal Alien Amnesty Would Have Given Obama a Landslide Victory

Posted By Daniel Greenfield On April 23, 2013 @ 9:19 pm In The Point | 8 Comments


Here’s a great plan for the future of the Republican Party. How about we hand over Florida, Colorado and Nevada to the Democratic Party without ever dreaming of competing in them again. And let’s turn Texas and Arizona into the new swing states.

It’s easy, it’s fun and it will make it impossible for Republicans to win the White House ever again after 2022. It’s the amazing plan being peddled by Senator Graham and Senator Rubio, among other geniuses. It’s a plan to lose every election ever [1]as the only hope for saving the Republican Party.

Some people would call that a bad plan, but who listens to Conservative Republicans anyway?

The immigration proposal pending in Congress would transform the nation’s political landscape for a generation or more — pumping as many as 11 million new Hispanic voters into the electorate a decade from now in ways that, if current trends hold, would produce an electoral bonanza for Democrats and cripple Republican prospects in many states they now win easily.

Full voting rights — for a group of undocumented residents that roughly equals the population of Ohio, the nation’s seventh-largest state.

If these people had been on the voting rolls in 2012 and voted along the same lines as other Hispanic voters did last fall, President Barack Obama’s relatively narrow victory last fall would have been considerably wider, a POLITICO analysis showed.

Key swing states that Obama fought tooth and nail to win — like Florida, Colorado and Nevada — would have been comfortably in his column. And the president would have come very close to winning Arizona.

Republican Mitt Romney, by contrast, would have lost the national popular vote by 7 percentage points, 53 percent to 46 percent, instead of the 4-point margin he lost by in 2012, and would have struggled even to stay competitive in GOP strongholds like Texas, which he won with 57 percent of the vote.

Under a 13-year path to citizenship, this would mean most undocumented immigrants could join the voting rolls in the 2028 presidential election (though the proposed 5-year timeline for citizenship under the DREAM Act and for agricultural workers would start the process even earlier than that)

And then the electoral math really becomes fun

To illustrate the potential voting shifts once immigrants are able to vote, look at Texas, Arizona and Georgia. The total undocumented immigrant population in each of those states exceeds Romney’s margin of victory.

Sure this sounds terrible, but listen to Steve Schmidt, the favorite Republican strategist of liberals everywhere.

Many Republican strategists, gives the party no long-term alternative but to welcome the new voters and hope this allows the party to compete for Hispanic voters in ways that are closer to how President George W. Bush performed in 2004. National exit polls that year showed he won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Some analysts have questioned this data, but there is little doubt that Bush performed significantly better with this group than Romney, who got just 27 percent.

If Republicans do nothing to repair their relationships with current and future Latino voters, “we certainly won’t be a national political party anymore,” said GOP strategist Steve Schmidt, a top adviser to John McCain in 2008.

If one adds 11 million new Hispanic voters after immigration reform but applies 2004 percentages, the damage to Republicans is real but much less severe: Romney would have still won border states Texas and Arizona, albeit by smaller margins, while Obama would have held other Latino-heavy swing states like Nevada and Florida by slightly larger margins than the ones he did win by.

So even in the imaginary Bush scores, we still lose the election and the Latino vote and we lose by a larger margin than Romney actually lost by.

And the brilliant new plan is to hope a Republican presidential candidate can win a share of the non-Cuban Latino vote that neither Rubio nor Ted Cruz could win… and still lose the election by an even bigger margin.

And a failure to score these super duper numbers means a landslide defeat as opposed to just a plain old regular defeat. Illegal alien amnesty. Why just shoot yourself in the head with a handgun when you can blow your head off with a shotgun?

Why settle for trying to swim ashore from a sinking boat, when you can tie lead weights to your ankles, chop off your arms and legs and then try to swim from the North Pole.

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[1] a plan to lose every election ever : http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/immigration-reform-could-upend-electoral-college-90478.html

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