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Morsi Out as President, Liberal-Military Coalition Rule In

Posted By Daniel Greenfield On July 3, 2013 @ 3:22 pm In The Point | 24 Comments

Gen Abdulfattah al-Sisi, the head of the army, made a televised address to the nation accusing Mr Morsi of rejecting calls for national dialogue.
Backed by the country’s main religious leaders, Ahmed al-Tayyeb, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University, and Pope Tawadros II of the Coptic Church, he said the military was taking up its “patriotic duty to the Egyptian masses”.

He announced a political road-map suspending the constitution, forming an interim government, and leading to new elections. He appointed the chief justice of the constitutional court as interim president with “full powers of decree”.

The Coptic pope Tawadros has also spoken. “We have all gathered under the Egyptian flag,” he says, supporting the army’s move.

Next up is Mohamed El-Baradei, the former presidential candidate and opposition leader. He says the transition period will move toward new elections. He calls for “social justice for every single Egyptian.” He says the Egyptian street has paid a high price for a hopeful political future.

The sheikh of Al-Azhar mosque follows Sisi at the podium. He says he supports the step the army has taken and calls on Egyptians to mend their differences.

An important presence at the army televised address is the Nour party, Egypt’s second-largest Islamist organization, which opposed the Muslim Brotherhood in the post-January 25 period. The party has declared its support for the political transition.

That’s about as big a coalition as you can get. I predicted a counterrevolution back in October and now it seems to be about done.

The announcements are in and they say that Morsi is no longer president. Morsi says that he is too president. But in a country whose original government was overthrown by mass protests and the military announcing their withdrawal of support, that doesn’t count for much. Just ask Mubarak.

Morsi’s big mistake was in alienating too many groups at the same time. He alienated the military by making too many sudden moves against it and alienated the liberal opposition by breaking all his promises to them.

He didn’t expect that the military and the liberal opposition would join forces against him. He was wrong. The Egyptian military has bypassed him assembling a coalition of religious and political leaders to sideline the Brotherhood.

Don’t count the Brotherhood out yet. There were a lot of Western investors who expected to cash in on Brotherhood rule and the fall of Mubarak. Part of the opposition to Mubarak was investment-based, he wasn’t reforming Egypt fast enough. And the American and European left these days prefers Arab Islamists to Arab Socialists.

And even if the military and the liberal opposition succeeds in their political judo move, they inherit a disastrous economy and a wave of popular anger over it. The Brotherhood can stage another revolution or a counter-revolution or a counter-counter-revolution after a few months of El Baradei running Egypt into the ground. If the military doesn’t remove him first.

Brotherhood protesters are already denouncing this as a military government. That will be their rallying call in the days, months and weeks ahead.

The Egyptian military has, like so many other regional militaries, taken on a Praetorian Guard role. This probably won’t be the last time they throw their political weight around.

Morsi too may not be done. But the liberal protesters have successfully shattered the idea that he can bring stability. And without that Western leaders will be less inclined to protect him.

So what does the fall of Morsi really mean? It means the end of the Arab Spring. There’s no positive change here, just revolution followed by revolution in an endless succession of banana republics. The Middle East isn’t on the verge of reform. It is what it has always been, an unstable and violent place with no culture of responsible governance or mutual respect for human rights.

But this is good news for Coptic Christians who have a shot at a government that may respect their human rights, though that will vary based on local authorities.

UPDATE: Morsi is at an “undisclosed location”.


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