Muslim Fertility Rates Dropping Faster than Western Fertility Rates


Numbers like these are interesting, but consider two things

1. Projecting future trends is chancy business at best, especially when it comes to birth rates

2.  A car going 100 miles an hour may be slowing down faster than a car going 40 miles an hour, but it’s still traveling faster than it.

Something startling is happening in the Muslim world — and no, I don’t mean the Arab Spring or the growth of Islamic fundamentalism. According to a leading demographer, a “sea change” is producing a sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates and a “flight from marriage” among Arab women.

Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar with the American Enterprise Institute, documented these findings in two recent papers.

Eberstadt’s first paper was expressively titled “Fertility Decline in the Muslim World: A Veritable Sea-Change, Still Curiously Unnoticed.”

It’s not really unnoticed. David P. Goldman/Spengler has been talking about it for a while. To some degree we are seeing the results of growing prosperity in the Muslim world and the decline of feudal farming.

Using data for 49 Muslim-majority countries and territories, he found that fertility rates declined an average of 41% between 1975-80 and 2005-10, compared with a 33% drop for the world as a whole.

Twenty-two Muslim countries and territories had fertility declines of 50% or more. The sharpest drops were in Iran, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Libya, Albania, Qatar and Kuwait, which all recorded declines of 60% or more over these three decades.

You’ll notice that most of the countries on this list are relatively wealthy because of their oil or are adjacent to Europe. The exception here is Bangladesh which has a complicated history.

So we are seeing the effects of prosperity, a rising Middle Class and some influence leaking in from the West. As well as rising educational levels among women, particularly in Iran.

Fertility in Iran declined an astonishing 70% over the 30-year period, which Eberstadt says was “one of the most rapid and pronounced fertility declines ever recorded in human history.”

There you go.

Big cities in the Muslim world have seen especially sharp drops. Eberstadt notes only six states in America have lower rates than Istanbul. In Tehran and Isfahan, fertility rates are lower than those of any state in America.

So again. Urban life. Middle class. Prosperity. All having some of the same impact that they do in the West. But this declining birth rate also drives Islamism.

While the educated classes in Istanbul had fewer children, they brought in rural Turkish Muslims who supported the Islamist AKP. The result was an Islamist takeover of Turkey. The long term consequence of urban birth rate declines in places like Turkey is Islamist supremacy.

The somewhat interesting thing that he mentions is a Muslim flight from marriage.

Accompanying this fertility decline is what Eberstadt calls a “flight from marriage,” described in a paper presented last month in Doha, Qatar.

The decline of marriage in Europe is well known but striking: The female marriage rate fell in Germany from 98% to 59% from 1965 to 2000; it fell in France over that period from 99% to 61%; in Sweden from 98% to 49%; in Britain, from nearly 100% to 54%.

Marriage is also plummeting in Asia: In Japan, the percentage of women between 30 and 34 who have never married rose from 7.2% in 1970 to 26.6% in 2000; in Burma, it rose from 9.3% to 25.9%; in Thailand, from 8.1% to 16.1%; in South Korea, from 1.4% to 10.7%.

Marriage rates in the Arab world are higher, but they’re moving fast in the same direction.

What’s “astonishing,” says Eberstadt in an email explaining his findings, is that in the Arab world this move away from marriage “is by many measures already as far along as was Europe’s in the 1980s — and it is taking place at a vastly lower level of development than the corresponding flights in Europe and developed East Asia.”

That’s not entirely surprising considering that Muslim women are treated worse than European women and lose far more of their rights through marriage.

The decline of marriage in the West is more due to indulgence, but in the East it is more closely tied to the treatment of women. With fewer legal protections, Muslim women are more dependent on having some form of economic independence to avoid being dominated by their in-laws. That requires an advanced education and delays marriage and childbirth.

Add on government subsidies in oil countries and a marriage in which women give up their rights while entering into a non-monogamous relationship, and it’s not surprising that many Muslim women are opting out.

  • SoCalMike

    Given the widespread preference for boys among men in these places, I'm only surprised it took so long to notice.

    • Mary Sue

      and not only that, the prevalence of said practice has led to mystery infertility (which isn't a mystery when they found out they'd been having anal sex with their wives! They were DOING IT WRONG!)

      • Jeff Bargholz

        Mary sue, cut them some slack. Drilling for oil is their only industry.

  • Joye b

    Yes, but it will take around 100 years to have real impact. In the meantime, we'll be at war all that time.

    • eliot

      Not 100 years; maybe 20 or 30. By then, the middle-aged men will be old or dead. The younger men will be middle aged and not as spry as they used to be. War depends on masses of young men and there won't be any.

  • berlinboy

    If a land have more boys than girls, and if the fathers of this girls want boys who have a job and can feed the family. than it is no wonder why it decline. its not because the arab world have a cultural mindchange. its only mother nature and the economy which put the fanatics to the very ground.
    no job, no girlfriend.
    2 boys with jobs, 1 girl to marry.
    50/50 chance to get her. one boy will marry and the other one can only seek his fortune in terrorist groups.
    dont compare this drama with the european situation. in europe there is the same amount of boys and girls. both sexes have a job, both can pick freely their partners. and often a married couple decide to live their hedonism than to get children in this world.

    • Fahad

      The comment so far seem to be pointing to something that is assuming and stereotyping. Most comments state that “these countries” men prefer to have boys and that is true to an extent BUT it’s not the differentiating factor. The preference of having boys is not restricted to the Muslim world but is present here in the United States, east asia, Africa, and I assume Europe as well. The desire to have boys does come from having the family continue to see another generation; it’s almost like natural selection in animals as well as in humans. In developed countries, the fear of having a girl comes from the fact that the parents will have to worry about them having sex at a young age or teen pregnancies which is not a concern in Muslim countries.

      I don’t have kids but I don’t have a preference in gender of my children as both are an equal blessing from god.

      I’m not sure why preference is being mentioned though as we don’t have much control over what we will have anyways and it’s not the Muslim countries that will support ending the pregnancy due to gender(or possibly even have the capability of being able to tell before birth what gender).

      @Berlinboy: I’m gonna be very upfront when I say you are retarded because of your ignorance. Your breakdown of your theory is very biased, racist and Islamophobic. There is a reason why history is fading away from our schools. It makes us realize the reality, Ie. who really has been the terrorist historically. Hitler, Israel(currently), Mussolini, United States(in Japan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea, etc)……all of which are non-muslim. Just because a wealthy country says a group is bad don’t blindly believe it. Make an effort to learn and educate yourself…assuming you can read.

    • Fahad

      The comment so far seem to be pointing to something that is assuming and stereotyping. Most comments state that "these countries" men prefer to have boys and that is true to an extent BUT it's not the differentiating factor. The preference of having boys is not restricted to the Muslim world but is present here in the United States, east asia, Africa, and I assume Europe as well. The desire to have boys does come from having the family continue to see another generation; it's almost like natural selection in animals as well as in humans. In developed countries, the fear of having a girl comes from the fact that the parents will have to worry about them having sex at a young age or teen pregnancies which is not a concern in Muslim countries.

      I don't have kids but I don't have a preference in gender of my children as both are an equal blessing from god.

      I'm not sure why preference is being mentioned though as we don't have much control over what we will have anyways and it's not the Muslim countries that will support ending the pregnancy due to gender(or possibly even have the capability of being able to tell before birth what gender).

      @Berlinboy: I'm gonna be very upfront when I say you are retarded because of your ignorance. Your breakdown of your theory is very biased, racist and Islamophobic. There is a reason why history is fading away from our schools. It makes us realize the reality, Ie. who really has been the terrorist historically. Hitler, Israel(currently), Mussolini, United States(in Japan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea, etc)……all of which are non-muslim. Just because a wealthy country says a group is bad don't blindly believe it. Make an effort to learn and educate yourself…assuming you can read.

    • Anonymous

      We shouldn't get too comfortable with these findings. As the more educated opt to delay marriage, whether by choice / demographics, the lower classes will more than happily continue to multiply and in breed out of duty to make up for this or by force.

  • http://www.adinakutnicki.com AdinaK

    Yoram Ettinger, a leading demographer (and ex diplomat), has been positing said fertility droppings for years, though many leftist poohbahs resist said evidence. In fact, it works to their advantage to scare the west into submission, especially in Israel.

    Nevertheless, their jihad is as dangerous as ever, being that westerners do not deal with their problems through throat slitting and head chopping – unless they are serial killers!

    So, while the info is encouraging, it does not obviate the immediate threat, nor does it stench their blood lust – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/09/13/muslim-blood-

    Adina Kutnicki, Israel – http://adinakutnicki.com/about/

  • Indioviejo

    Nice to know, but what does it mean for us? We don't have time for the barbarians to tire out or to exhaust their latest assault on civilization. I believe we need to put them down forever.

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLNn2YflwNs Roger

      A rattle snake can be run over in the road and not realize it's dead for quite some time.

      And during that time you still have to treat it like the poisonous reptile that it is.

  • Edward Cline

    This is good news, qualified though it may be. Now, if only we could get similar news about the birth rates of illegal immigrants, namely Mexican. Do not construe this as "racist." If Mexicans, like their cultural brethren the Muslims, move here but remain vociferously loyal to their "mother country" and its insipid, stagnant culture, then they invite "stereotyping." Those nationalist Mexican supremacy organizations cater to and perpetuate that stereotyping and race consciousness, not anyone else, and are as much enemies of assimilation as are Muslim organizations.

    • Daniel Greenfield

      Some of the same numbers apply to them as well.

    • traeh

      Edward Cline,
      Mexicans are not the cultural brethren of Muslims. Mexican culture has first world potential. Mexico in time could join the first world. Islamic culture and Islamic nations will not join the first world. (By "first world," I mean nations that are well-established, genuine liberal democracies, with real freedom of speech, freedom of religion, governments that are not hopelessly corrupt, economies that are reasonably independent of government, and a strong and large middle class. Islamic nations will never have real liberal democracy.)

  • SuicidePrevention

    Daniel, you wrote: The decline of marriage in the West is more due to indulgence…
    too much candy? too few chores?
    too many designer clothes? not enough homework? not enough respect for parents?
    Is your opinion informed by personal experience with women you have wooed?

    • Mary Sue

      Too little commitment. Too little thought towards Responsibility. In other words, men and women today are 12 year old boys psychologically.

  • JacksonPearson

    Perhaps it's Islamic polygamy, the Qur'an doesn't allow them to assimilate, and lastly, their in-breeding could be doing them in.

    • Reda

      Poligamy is not allowed in muslim countries , exept in few countries , but you have to be rich and you will pay a social price . so it is not allowed and polygamy is a spiritualy risky buisness you may go to hell if you can't be just with the wifes in the matters of money , sex and love/affection .

  • Mary Sue

    ……..

    YOu idiot! Orthodox Jews are our friends!

    • Marc

      Forgive the double negative mistake.

      "We cannot have pepperoni pizza or bolagna sandwiches in schools…"

    • UCSPanther

      Buddy, you need to stop reading the filth that was produced by the likes of Kevin MacDonald and William Pierce.

    • Anonymous

      First you claim that they send their children to Jewish-only schools, next you claim they're attending public schools. No Jew (Orthodox or otherwise) mandates what non-Jews should eat. Non-Jews are not expected to adhere to Jewish dietary laws (although I suspect you already know this, but prefer rabble-rousing). Your "beef" probably lies with do-gooder non-Jews who want to be extra, extra politically correct.

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLNn2YflwNs Roger

      muslims also reject pork, are you sure it's not them?

  • Mary Sue

    It just goes to show that excessive "leftist" ideals (primarily in terms of reproduction, here) will lose out demographically to those who do not share those beliefs. People in USA who are particularly leftist are TERRIFIED of the Duggars and the "Quiverfull" bunch, and with good reason. They shame them in order to discourage them or others from having so many kids with memes like "Vagina: It's Not A Clown Car" because they secretly KNOW that they can't outbreed the Duggars et all with their 0.1 or 0.0 kids!

  • Lady_Dr

    Inbreedng is a serious problem among moslems who think the ideal marriage is to marry a relative. So they have a substantially higher incident of birth defects, mental retardation, etc., etc. – makes me happy. give someone who is retarded a gun and they are likely to shoot themselves, or another Arab. So even their culture is turning on them – HURRAH!

    • reda

      not the relatives but their own clans to provent conflicts in the arabic culture and now there is no such thing

  • Anonymous

    I am not a big fan of demographic arguments — too frequently it descends into a kind of mindless bigotry (Their numbers are too great! We must do something!) Immaterial aspects of culture are more important.

  • LindaRivera

    Abu Baseer in London: “One of the goals of immigration is the revival of the duty of jihad and enforcement of power over the infidels. Immigration and jihad go together.

    Muslim birthrates are not dropping in Britain and Europe. Traitor British and European ruling elites have DELIBERATELY colonized their countries with many millions of Muslims-the soldiers of Allah, in order for Muslims to OBEY the Koran and wage jihad against non-Muslims and conquer our countries.

    Koran 9:5 “Kill Jews and Christians wherever you find them”.

    It is a terrible injustice and a form of slavery, that Brits and Europeans are FORCED via their taxes to financially provide for Muslims, their multiple wives and HUGE numbers of children. An Islamic army that is being raised up in Europe and Britain imported and financed by European and British leaders.

    Founder of Islam, Mohammed: “I have been made victorious with terror”, “Wage war on the infidel and kill them until Islam is dominant” (Koran 8:39)

  • LindaRivera

    Marc, You are the DIRTY one!

  • UCSPanther

    Comment reported, beggar.

  • traeh

    I'm glad about the article's focus on demographic decline in the Islamic world. But it doesn't touch the biggest question. We have been hearing for some years now that Europe would be Muslim-majority by the end of the century. But some are now claiming that this is not at all the case. A book called The Myth of the Muslim Tide claims that, due to rapid declines in reproductive rates among Muslims, the peak percentage of Muslims in Europe will be 10% or less, and that peak will happen around 2050. In the U.S. the peak, according to the book just mentioned, will be 2%.

    Now, it's a huge question that needs answering. Is Europe going to be Muslim-majority by the end of the century? Or is it going to peak at 10%. Because if it's going to peak at 10% of less, then European freedom will be challenged, but it will not die.

    So we need to know.

    • Rober2D2

      Making any prediction about what migth happen by the end of the century is simply a waste of time. Just think about how many things happened in the last century: Communism, fascism, 2 world wars, cold war, May 1968, social care, strong birth rate decline, electronics, internet. At the beginning of the 20th century, women where not allowed to vote in most of european countries, gay discrimination was common in Europe till the 90's. A century is a very long while. So many things may happen that is impossible to predict such things. In any case, current trends show that a muslim-Europe is not but extreme right propaganda.

  • RETREAT

    Bogus Crap mentioned multiple times. I guess you believe in Hitler theology: Loud lie (OR many times repeated lie) makes it truth.

    The birthrate can’t fall as heavily as stated.

    Let us understand this via an example:

    There are 2 families: Mullah family AND Pastor family

    In 2000, Mullah family was polygamous (had 4 wives to 1 husband) with 25 fertility rate each
    => 25*4 = 100 children born in a family.

    In 2000, Pastor family was monogamous with 10 fertility rate
    => 10*1 = 10 children born in a family.

    Families remained polygamous / monogamous as what they were.

    Now, Mullah family birthrate reduced by 40% per decade.
    => In 2010, Mullah birthrate = 100*(1-40%) = 60

    And Pastor family birthrate reduced by 10% per decade.
    => In 2010, Pastor birthrate = 10*(1-10%) = 9

    We know 40% > 10% BUT we also admit that 60 > 9.

    So, a fast decline isn’t fast at all.

    Now, the question is: where is the bottleneck?

    Let us take another example.

    Compare 2 fertility rates. 10 & 9.

    Generation 1:: It becomes 10 children vs 9 children.
    Generation 2:: It becomes 10*10 (=100) vs 9*9 (=81) children
    Generation 3:: It becomes 10*10*10 (=1000) vs 9*9*9 (=729) children

    Assuming fertility rates are same over generations and no deaths have occurred so far.

    10 is almost same as 9 (mere 10% change)
    However, 100 is not the same as 81 (19% change)
    and 1000 is much more than 729 (27.1% change)

    As the generations increase, the % drop becomes significant. West have already pioneered this concept and muslims are at beginning of it. They will take time for sure.

    By the way, the research is incomplete unless you compare death rate, conversion rates also.

    • Le Fox

      “Muslim birthrate isn’t declining at all” – Not according to the UN and researchers.

      http://www.aei.org/files/2012/03/21/-fertility-decline-in-the-muslim-world-a-veritable-seachange-still-curiously-unnoticed_102606337292.pdf

      If you say that the birthrate can’t fall as heavily stated, then it can’t rise that fast, either. Second, it isn’t “Hitler lies”, and you have already lost the argument by citing Godwin’s Law.

      Plus, your math is confusing. If a generation is cut in half, then it requires double the children to restore it to historic levels.

      “As the generations increase” – There is no evidence of this. You are doing what you have said not to do: assuming fertility rates are static.

      Better luck next time.

    • Rober2D2

      Your argument is a big falacy. Let’s suppose for a moment that this Mullah had those 100 children. If he has four wives, that also means that there are 3 other muslim men without any wife, and without children. So we have an average of 25 children per muslim man. Discount the 40%, and you will have an average of 15 children vs 9.

      About speed of reduction, when we say that muslims are reducing fertility faster than christian’s, it means that it took as 200 years to drop fertility from 8 to 2 children. They are doing the same in 50 years. Will muslim population outnumber christian in the world? You are making an statement about that possibility. The problem is that it is not backed by any real number (you just suppose that it will take them time without providing any data). Well, real numbers says it won’t happen unless most of the world christians become atheist. In fact, Christianism is the fastest growing religion worldwide.

  • Jukka Aakula

    “Urban life. Middle class. Prosperity. All having some of the same impact that they do in the West. But this declining birth rate also drives Islamism.

    While the educated classes in Istanbul had fewer children, they brought in rural Turkish Muslims who supported the Islamist AKP. The result was an Islamist takeover of Turkey. The long term consequence of urban birth rate declines in places like Turkey is Islamist supremacy.

    The somewhat interesting thing that he mentions is a Muslim flight from marriage.”

    So the modernization is cyclic. Going up and down. But what is the long term affect? Turkey is probably going down – there is thesis, atithesis and instead of synthesis back to thesis?

    • Rober2D2

      The argument of “Low fertility rates in cities leads to islamism” misses a few facts. The most important is that rural population iin developing countries tends to migrate to cities. We may suppose that part of the new generations, born in the cities, won’t be islamist. That same happened in western countries. I think that explanation is simplier: It’s not true that Turkey beame islamist in recent years. Turkey has always been islamist, but the army didn’t allow them to reach power. The party of Erdogan, is moderate compared to other islamist parties in the past (I would say is similar to Christian parties in some East Europe countries like Poland), so the Army allowed them to rule.

  • jenniewalsh

    Agenda 21, from the Satanic organization known as the United Nations, plans to reduce world population by 80-90% so that the 10-20% remaining will be easier to enslave and control by the Satanic Illuminati under their New World Order world-wide totalitarian military police-state dictatorship.

    I have heard that between the years of 1968 and 1974, the US government had a top trade treaty agreement with the Chinese government: US would give China nearly NO TARIFFS, few restrictions, and the globalist US cartel companies would build China’s production plants, IN EXCHANGE FOR: a Chinese ONE CHILD POLICY (involving sterilization, abortion, birth control).

    Also, the US globalist cartel companies, using the United Nations, wanted to do the same with a number of other nations. Pope Benedict (who had observer status at the U.N.) along with many Muslim nations opposed this one child policy treaty. These are the nations that are now experiencing victimization by all sorts of propaganda and lies, uprisings, civil unrest, undermining and demonizing of political and religious leaders, assassinations of leaders, sanctions, false flag accusations, general disruption and turmoil.

    Do you have any further information about this subject or any links where I could obtain further information about this subject?

    God Bless You Forever for all that you are doing to expose the truth to the world.

    • Le Fox

      There is no such thing as the Illuminati. And you aren’t a truth seeker or care for it if you say the exact same thing other conspiracy theorists do.

      None of your claims are backed up by the evidence. China imposed its own policies with ZERO help from the US.

      Plus, you support Islam. So you are pushing the propaganda you hate.

      “I have heard” – Do your research, as you tell us. You’re parroting what others have said and refuse to check on your own.

      Stupid sheeple.

  • Le Fox

    This was known by AEI two years ago. While it is nice to see Muslims NOT have 7 children per woman, it will not change the fact that Islam is a threat.

    It’s a win-lose situation.