Obama, Iran and World War III

iran20aAccording to a recent news report, President Barack Obama has for over a year secretly conducted negotiations with Iran (through his adviser Valerie Jarrett) and the Geneva talks on Iranian nukes now appear to be just a facade providing international legitimacy for Obama’s secret deal with Iran.

Secretary of State John Kerry’s contradictory criticism of Israeli objections to that deal only suggests more bad faith by the Obama administration. Kerry claims that Israel has been kept fully apprised of the negotiations with Iran but then argues that Israel has never seen the terms of the proposed deal with Iran and therefore shouldn’t question it. The Obama administration apparently wants to present the nuclear deal as a fait accompli that Israel must simply accept as is.

In what is becoming a familiar pattern, Russia is readily moving in to the Mideast areas where U.S. influence has waned because of Obama’s many fumbles in the region. Last August, Saudi Arabia made it clear that it would happily replace US aid to Egypt (highlighting one of many issues straining U.S. relations with yet another Mideast ally).

On the issue of Iranian nukes, France has effectively replaced the U.S. as Israel’s strongest ally and as the most sober-minded advocate of caution when negotiating over the single greatest threat to global security. Incredibly, Saudi Arabia is reportedly replacing the US in providing logistical support for an Israeli strike on Iranian nukes.

Yaakov Amidror, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s former national security adviser, recently indicated that the Israeli Air Force has been preparing for a potential strike on Iran. According to Amidror, such a strike could set back Iran’s nuclear program “for a very long time.” So Israel can go it alone, if it must, although the results will be far messier than those produced by a stronger U.S. approach.

While the Obama administration has suggested that critics of the current Geneva deal are “on a march to war,” it is that very deal — which gives Iran a nuclear breakout capacity — that will force the states most threatened by Iran to take preemptive military action.

Even if one accepts Obama’s apparent view that decades-long alliances matter no more than do U.S. assurances, there are other compelling reasons for Obama to reverse his disastrous Iran policy before its too late.  Granting an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout capability will produce catastrophic consequences  (many of which Obama himself acknowledged, in his March 2012 speech):

1) The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) will effectively be finished. The world’s most volatile region will become even more explosive as other regional players scramble to establish their own nuclear arsenals to counter Iran’s. And rogue nations will realize that by following Iran’s deceptive playbook, they too can develop a nuclear capability.

2)  The force of U.N. Security Council Resolutions will be further diluted, as Iran will continue flouting six of them with impunity.

3) Iran-backed terrorist organizations — including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah — will grow emboldened by the nuclear umbrella of their patron.

4) Terrorism could go nuclear, should Iran share some of its nuclear materials with the terrorist groups that it supports.

5) U.S. influence in the Middle East will erode even more, as Obama further damages U.S. relationships and influence in the region.

6) U.S. credibility throughout the world will plummet. If the U.S. cannot be trusted to provide strong leadership on the national security issue of greatest concern to the free world, where U.S. interests are directly at stake, what does that mean for U.S. credibility more generally?

7) Global instability and oil prices will skyrocket. If Israel, with Saudi assistance, strikes Iran’s nuclear program, the Iranian retaliation that follows could spark World War III. Will Iran attack Saudi oil fields or otherwise pour more fuel onto the Sunni-Shia fire in Syria? Will Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah (estimated to have at least 45,000 missiles) launch a massive attack killing thousands of Israeli civilians? Will some of the Syrian chemical weapons held by Assad (another Iranian ally) end up hitting Israel? How would Israel respond? Is this how Armageddon happens?

8) U.S. interests will be attacked. Obama may think that his policy of appeasement will shield the U.S. from Iranian reprisals, but the opposite is true. When the U.S. appears so weak and ready to abandon allies (as with Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia), Iran has less fear of attacking the U.S. and more reasons to do so, as a way to exacerbate U.S. tensions with Israel.

Will attacking U.S. interests be yet another Obama “red line” that gets crossed with impunity? If so, then whatever is left of U.S. deterrence and credibility will have been destroyed. If not, then the U.S. will get sucked into another Mideast war but on terms dictated by the adversary, and without any first-strike advantage.

The catastrophic consequences outlined above would all directly result from Obama’s disastrously weak — but still reversible — policies on the Iranian nuclear threat.

The Jewish people have a long memory, and it pervades the thinking of Israeli civilians and top brass alike. Thus, Israel’s brief history is replete with daring military operations to protect its security. In Netanyahu’s speech at the last UN General Assembly, in what may have been Israel’s final warning to the world to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat before Israel must, the Prime Minister summed up — from his personal family history — the collective experience that guides Israel on fateful decisions:

“[O]ne cold day in the late 19th century, my grandfather Nathan and his younger brother Judah were standing in a railway station in the heart of Europe. They were seen by a group of anti-Semitic hoodlums who ran towards them waving clubs, screaming ‘Death to the Jews.’ My grandfather shouted to his younger brother to flee and save himself, and he then stood alone against the raging mob to slow it down. They beat him senseless, they left him for dead, and before he passed out, covered in his own blood, he said to himself ‘What a disgrace, what a disgrace. The descendants of the Macabees lie in the mud powerless to defend themselves.’ He promised himself then that if he lived, he would take his family to the Jewish homeland and help build a future for the Jewish people. I stand here today as Israel’s prime minister because my grandfather kept that promise.”

Obama should know by now that if he forces Israel’s hand, then Israel alone will neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat, regardless of how messy the aftermath may be. Netanyahu — like any other responsible Israeli leader — would rather bring about World War III than the last Israelis.

Noah Beck is the author of The Last Israelis, an apocalyptic novel about Iranian nukes and other geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

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  • Moa

    Israel, do what you have to do.

    Ake! Ake! Kia Kaha!
    (and damn all the defeatist appeasers)

    • A Z

      There is a book that looks at what if Chamberlain had stood up to Herr H_tler.

      at the time of the crisis Germany had 29 active divisions. After Chamberlain served up Czechoslovakia on a silver platter gratis, Germany acquired enough equipment for another 30 divisions. You do the math.

      Everyone knows what a German tank looks like. we know the shape of Panzers I thru IV, the Panther and the King Tiger.

      Then you look at a picture of a German division that has reached the English channel in 1940 and you see a few tanks in the filed of view. but one of them does not look right. Duck … Duck… Goose!

      Oh yeah it had been a Czechoslovakian tank.

      • Moa

        Yes, the T-38, called the Panzer 38(T) was built by the Czechs and continued production once the Nazis rolled in. It was used to further conquer other countries:
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_38%28t%29

        Fortunately Czech is now a Free Country and has been helping Israel for years. The Czechs supplied weapons to the newly formed Israel in 1948 and helped it survive the planned genocide of its enemies.

        More recently, the Obama Administration treacherously told countries to vote for Palestinian Observer Status at the UN despite the Palestinians still refusing to recognize Israel (which the Georgian Foreign Minister revealed, so confused he was by the US treachery toward Israel about mutual recognition). However the Czechs and Canada also voted against.
        Poland is another country that seems to have helpful relations with Israel. Poland saved the West from invasion in 1683 and 1919 by Islam and Communism respectively.

        We should remember the nations that are great not because of their size, but because of their commitment to liberty – including that of the sovereign state of Israel.

        • A Z

          Source: Williamson Murray

          The Change in the European Balance of Power, 1938-1939: The Path to RUIN

          Or the a short version of the facts on page 84 of World War II magazine NOV/DEC 2013 issue.

        • defcon 4

          The Czech knock-offs of the Messerschmitt 109′s used in the ’48′ War of Independence were interesting planes (and practically death traps to land or take off in), but better than nothing.

          • Wolfthatknowsall

            All of the 109′s were to difficult to maneuver, on the ground. But in the air, they were deadly and powerful machines.

          • defcon 4

            The Czech knock-offs were using heavy bomber engines, which made them even more dangerous on landing and take-off and inhibited the performance of their Me-109 knock-offs.

          • Wolfthatknowsall

            That’s something I never knew. During the war, the Swiss used 109′s, and actually shot down some German aircraft that strayed across the border.

            Surely those bomber engines were inlines, or the streamlining of the entire aircraft, and its balance, would be completely off.

          • defcon 4

            They were inlines that were normally used on German twin-engined bombers. I remember reading an ad years ago for surplus Finnish jagdpanzers being sold on the open market.

          • Wolfthatknowsall

            After I posted, above, I found out that a Hetzer with gun and sights, fully functional, was on Ebay, some time ago, for $590k.

          • defcon 4

            Does it come w/ammunition? What about free shipping? I’m sure UPS could handle a multi-ton tank destroyer somehow.

          • Wolfthatknowsall

            As I understand it, the vehicle was fully functional, and included the gun and sights. I’m guessing that ammo would be the owner’s problem!

    • Wolfthatknowsall

      Just out of curiosity, is the phrase, “Ake! Ake! Kia Kaha!” a Maori exhortation meaning “Stay strong!”?

  • m4253y

    There is but one course of action that is the only solution. Israel is in a vacuum and can only strike first and strike hard before it will be too late. As dirty as the consequences will be, the option is not an option at all, it is merely an extension of their fate. The Saudi’s know this all too well themselves given a nuclear iran.

    For Israel, self reliance and determination in the face of adversity which again threatens their destruction is the only option for preservation and survival.

  • Brad

    Paragraph 7, Line 3: it’s not its.

  • lessthantolerant

    More good news about the Obama Regime. It will be quite pleasing if Iran get the bomb and Israel has to nuke Ira in order to survive, A Middle East inflames while millions of jihadists die will show how successful appeasement works.
    Obama and his puppets are fools, the biggest of them Kerry.

    • defcon 4

      They aren’t fools, they are paid for tools of islam0nazism.

      • lessthantolerant

        NYC slides backwards to David Dinkins Days, now we have deals being brokered in the Middle East by Lurch channeling Neville Chamberlain.

        I savor the day when Iran tests its first nuclear bomb and we see the Middle East scurry about demanding why America allowed this.
        We an all tip our hat to the great cancer that is liberalism, smile and wonder how could these so brillant people have been fooled.

        Hopefully Israel will utilize its nuclear arsenal before it is eradicated.

        • defcon 4

          WRT your last sentence, I’d hate to see Israel have to do that. But I’d rather see it done pre-emptively than in response to a nuclear attack by muslimes on Israel.

          • lessthantolerant

            Agreed, I hope it unfolds that way, but Israel is filled with too many young who want peace at any cost.

            I fear they will have to learn a hard lesson, lets just hope it isn’t too late.

  • cedars rebellion

    How about another round of wagging the dog for the 2014 elections. Kick the can out to, say, October 15, then begin military operations in the Gulf. War President. Rally around the President. Be patriotic – don’t complain about Obamacare while we’re at war. Etc. Who knows? He might even go to Gettysburg and give a speech.

  • cedars rebellion

    How about another round of wagging the dog for the 2014 elections. Kick the can out to, say, October 15, then begin military operations in the Gulf. War President. Rally around the President. Be patriotic – don’t complain about Obamacare while we’re at war. Etc. Who knows? He might even go to Gettysburg and give a speech.

  • Texas Patriot

    Although we didn’t know it at the time, WWIII started with the attack on the Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972, and it’s been a relentless parade of Islamic terror attacks and worldwide aggression ever since. We just haven’t recognized it for what it is. The biggest clue as to what is really going on and what we are really up against was the Benghazi massacre on September 11, 2012 and the simultaneous worldwide Muslim demonstrators chanting “Obama, Obama, We’re All Osama.”

    • defcon 4

      In the 1970′s, muslimes slaughtered some 2.5 million Hindus in Bangladesh — a genocide for which there has been no reparations to the victims families, much less acknowledged: http://www.hindunet.org/hindu_history/modern/hindu_bangla.html

      • Texas Patriot

        There is no question that we are talking about a global offensive that has been going on for hundreds of years, but prior to the Munich attack in 1972, the West was not a direct object of their attacks. That obviously is no longer the case.

    • Obamaroid_Ointment

      IMHO the World Wars are numbered incorrectly. I think World War 1 started around 633-634 or so & hasn’t ended yet, & World War 3 ended in 1945.

      • Texas Patriot

        I think that’s a reasonable analysis, at least about the idea of WWI beginning in 633-634. Muhammad’s vision of global conquest and subjugation of non-Muslims has been there from the beginning, and there has never really been any abandonment of that agenda through the centuries. From that perspective, WWI and WWII could be seen as mere skirmishes in the overall scheme of global Islamic jihad, with the forces of Islam aligning with the Axis powers of Germany and Austria in both cases. The Allied forces of America, Great, Britain, France, and Australia may have won the military battle in WWII, but the invading forces of Islamic jihad have definitely won the demographic victory in the war’s aftermath since 1945. It could hardly be a more hellish situation to be in the middle of a war and not even know it. That’s what I call an effective disinformation and propaganda campaign by the enemy. Amazing really.

  • defcon 4

    I used to know a Lebanese Christian. I asked him what would happen if I were to wear a kippah and walk around Beirut. He guaranteed violence would happen to me, and it wouldn’t be the Christians I’d have to worry about.

  • lostlegends

    I doubt Israel will strike Iran. The Jews are divided as always and divisive. American Jews are mostly socialists and overwhelmingly Demosocialists. They want Hillary in next. They support Obama by a large margin. Kapos do as kapos do.

  • lostlegends

    I doubt Israel will strike Iran. The Jews are divided as always and divisive. American Jews are mostly socialists and overwhelmingly Demosocialists. They want Hillary in next. They support Obama by a large margin. Kapos do as kapos do.