Obama’s Deal With The Devil


dwdAs President Obama inked a notoriously weak deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran, international commentators went berserk. Varying from those who unanimously praise a daring historical move to those who consider it the first step toward apocalypse, views on the topic are as opposed as they have been on the majority of subjects touched by Barak Obama. While there is no doubt that the deal is destructive in its own nature and marks a clear surrender of American power in the Middle East, drawing analogies with the Treaty of Munich may be far-fetched. Khamenei is no Hitler for the simple fact that, even with a nuclear bomb, he lacks the conventional forces and the vision to engage into a hegemonic war. On the other hand, Iran is a threat sui generis. The comparison to past situations is failing simply because of the extent of the terrorist network that Teheran has at its direct disposal and the ability to manipulate world politics that it implies.

The deal struck by President Obama generates an effect closer to the drole de guerre, a period in which two enemy powers who are effectively at war are staring into each other’s eyes to see who will blink first. The problem is that by the steps taken to secure this ephemeral diplomatic victory, Barak Obama has certified that the US military option is off the table, thus freezing the nuclear problem without solving it. Instead, the US will provide Iran with six additional months helping to upgrade the Islamic Republic’s human capital and prepare for the next move.

While focusing on nuclear weapons, President Obama and the entire international community appear to be consciously omitting a key detail: the Iranian nuclear program is only one of Teheran’s tools used to wage war against its regional and international enemies. In fact, the illegal enrichment of uranium is not and should not be considered the unique constituent of the Iranian problem. Since 1979, Iran has been cultivating a network of terrorist organizations loosely linked to the revolutionary establishment that can be activated to wage terrorist attacks from Buenos Aires to Bulgaria and from Israel to Saudi Arabia. Recently, Iran’s proxies have been vigorously developing ties with Western Africa and Latin America, while also fortifying their power bases in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

The deal President Obama sponsored and pressed for implicitly states that the United States government turns a blind eye on Iranian support of international terrorism as long as the Islamic Republic appears to be respecting a number of weakly defined norms regarding its nuclear program. This decision creates a “lose-lose” situation for the United States and its most direct partners in the Middle East.

On the one hand, President Obama has put the country in a situation in which it loses the power of decision-making and needs to react to other players’ decisions. For the second time in four months, the President has let himself be bullied into negotiations with adversary states over a deal concerning their non-use of WMDs. May it be in Syria or Iran, Barak Obama has played into the hands of regimes who fully understand the political value of their weapons and use them to gain more time to either reaffirm their regional power or further develop an arsenal and a strategy that will be eventually utilized to target American interests in the region.

As it has been previously stated, this deal is structurally flawed because it implicitly emboldens terrorist groups formed to harm the United States and its partners in the region. By opening the diplomatic door to Iran, the message is clear: as long as the regime seems to be cooperating with overly bureaucratic international institutions, it has a free hand in its international covert activities. By attempting a PR stunt, President Obama has ignored the fact that Iran is arming terrorist groups in Nigeria on a massive scale. He has also overlooked the fact that Teheran is countering US policies in Syria by openly fighting militias supported by the White House. Most importantly, President Obama has chosen to abandon its regional partners who are now left virtually alone in their fight against Iran. The United States has suspended the military option for at least six months, thus entering into a situation that has no possible positive outcomes.

On the other hand, the President’s move has also put two essential US partners in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, in a uniquely grave position. Both countries have viewed, although to different extent, the White House’s decision as a surrender of its regional engagements, which left their stability and security solely in their own hands. This new reality is likely to lead to two distinct outcomes.

Since President Obama took office in 2008, Israel has been increasingly voicing its fears of American inaction in regard to the Iranian nuclear threat. While the Jewish State is largely capable of dealing with Iranian regional proxies on its own, partial or full military support from the US has always been an important asset for Israeli policy makers contemplating a direct strike against Teheran’s illegal nuclear program. Due to the long history of Iranian double-gaming and conspiracies, Israel is skeptical about the efficiency of the Obama sponsored deal. In fact, as the US chose to draw down its military capabilities in the region, the gap of trust that has been widening over the past 24 months is likely to become unbridgeable.  While it remains unlikely that Israel will launch a unilateral strike against Iranian targets, the United States must understand that because of President Obama’s move the country may well lose its most committed partner in the Middle East.

The problem with Saudi Arabia is structurally different. The financial factor puts US policy makers in great trouble. While there is little doubt that the partnership with the Gulf Monarchy cannot be considered as one based on shared values, the countries’ cooperation has been driven by shared interests embodied in the Saudi spending sprees in regard to American weapon systems. As the White House turned its back on the Arab Gulf, one might expect that the oil rich monarchies will ask for diplomatic and military protection from other world powers such as Russia who is increasingly seen as a deal maker in a region that is in desperate need of outside guidance.

And yet, there emerges another problem that could prove troublesome for the US national security. While Israel has the military advantage over Iran, Saudi does not. For this, it is likely to attempt to defend itself by using its best deterrent – radical Sunni terrorist organizations. In fact, when the Kingdom feels threatened, it generally expands its financing of fundamentalist groups. Financial assets are moved either through the various intelligence structures operating officially in Riyadh or informally by activating zakat funds collected through the country’s mosques and religious structures. This system is a well-known way used by Saudi Arabia to protect its national interest. Thus, Al Qaeda elements have been created and exported to Yemen to fight the Shi’a insurgency; Saudi officials have trained and armed Sunni militias in Iraq for over a decade and are now at the forefront of the list of countries deemed essential to sustain the Islamist brigades operating in Syria. Should Saudi Arabia feel truly threatened by Iran, its intelligence services are likely to expand the Al Qaeda network in order to limit Teheran’s hegemonic ambitions, which would undoubtedly backfire on the US.

As Barack Obama led the United States into a lose-lose situation in which both the country and its regional partners are mired in a negative position vis-à-vis one of their most direct adversaries, the Iranian government has emerged as the only clear winner of this first phase. It is now in partial control, which obviously does not represent a best-case scenario.

Riccardo Dugulin holds a master’s degree from the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po) and is specialized in International Security. He is currently working in Paris for a Medical and Security Assistance Company. He has worked for a number of leading think tanks in Washington DC, Dubai and Beirut. His official website is www.riccardodugulin.com and official Facebook site is www.facebook.com/riccardodugulin.

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  • Yann

    seriously? you call the deal a “PR stunt”? because it does not address iranian support to hezbollah? because it got WMD acquisition frozen but didn’t comprehensively address iranian support to terrorism? armchair general thinking…

    This is beyond politicized analysis, it’s entirely delusional…

    • CaoMoo

      Actually it’s a PR stunt because it has been tried and failed with other morally bankrupt dictators in th epast. Through in the islamic sanction for lying to infidels in the furtherence of allah’s will, and Iran’s declarations of we have ballistic missles and the white house didn’t agree to what it think it did before the ink was dry… and yeah worthless PR stunt.

      • objectivefactsmatter

        And this was not even a serious attempt. This was blatant cave in. 0′Bama is only trying to fool his own faith believers in to sticking with him and not losing faith over ZEROcare.

    • Chris King

      yes, PR stunt. with pre-release polls from the left claiming the public wanted “a deal”.

      a staged, multi-front, liberal media push for “a deal”.

      absolutely.

    • objectivefactsmatter

      “…because it got WMD acquisition frozen…”

      Nothing was frozen but US options. The agreement is a mere facade.

      “This is beyond politicized analysis, it’s entirely delusional…”

      Someone here is delusional. Your argument seems to make you a likely suspect. It’s not even clear you understood it.

    • Rob Pobe

      Seriously, it got a commercial airline deal with “The Great Islamic Nation of Iran” to immediately begin nonstop flights to all major cities in the United States of America–each and every crewmember and passenger will be well versed in the favorite Iranian mantra “Death to America” as they land with nuclear warheads, unopposed.

  • http://fdnyretiree.com/ Ed FDNYRetiree

    Obama IS the devil!

    • Lynn Rivera

      Maybe not the devil himself, but a high ranking demon.

  • BenJabo1Machal

    Obummer served his purpose, he distracted attention from his failed Obamacare

    • Phil

      That’s what he thinks.

  • CrossWinds

    Beware………Iran will probably be the one who unifies the whole middle east into one entity………………
    Iran could be the future seat of power of the anti-christ, and the false prophet of Revelations, who will hate Israel, and persecute Christians?

    …..Revelation 16:13………..And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs coming out of the mouth of the dragon, out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet…….

    ……Revelation 17:12-14………. 12 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. 13 These are of one mind, and they will give their power and authority to the beast……….

    …….Daniel 8:24-25….
    24 He will become very strong, but not by his own power. He will cause a shocking amount of destruction and succeed in everything he does. He will destroy powerful leaders and devastate the holy people. 25 He will be a master of deception and will become arrogant; he will destroy many without warning……

    …….Revelation 12:17……..17 And the dragon (Satan) was angry at the woman (Israel) and declared war against the rest of her children—all who keep God’s commandments and maintain their testimony for Jesus.

    • Lynn Rivera

      We know that we are seeing prophecy unfold. No one knows for sure what exactly the prophecies mean — but, we do know that Iran is going to be a player and a big enemy of Israel. But, will be their downfall.

      • CrossWinds

        Right on Lynn……God has not left His Children in the Dark…….

        …..Ephesians 1:7-10……

        7 In Him we have redemption through His blood, the forgiveness of sins, according to the riches of His grace 8 which He made to abound toward us in all wisdom and prudence, 9 having made known to us the mystery of His will, according to His good pleasure which He purposed in Himself, 10 that in the dispensation of the fullness of the times He might gather together in one all things in Christ, both which are in heaven and which are on earth—in Him.

  • Dyer’s Eve

    “From Persia, very near a million…” – Michel de Nostradame.

  • USARetired

    Everyone should know by now, he will give away ‘the store’ every time to Muslims!

    • Lynn Rivera

      What kind of name is Barak? What kind of name is Obama?

      • Edward smith

        ehud barak

  • Edward smith

    There are so many lies in this piece it’s amazing. Iran HAS the right to enrich uranium. That is obvious. They are signatories to the Non proliferation treaty.

    Also Obama has made time for the US to make a deal. WE can make a deal. THe ball is in our court. Always has been. We need to beat around the bush and just start having a full dialogue with Iran. We were able to sit down and talk with kruschev and gorbachov. We can sit down with Iran. Who is not even a real threat to the United states. They are only a threat if we want them to be.

    • Rob Pobe

      “The Great Islamic Terrorist State of Iran” has the right to self implode, no other rights

      • Edward smith

        so are you saying you want iran wiped off the map?

        • defcon 4

          Gee but when the mullahs, ayatollahs of the islamic “republic” of Iran constantly rant and rave about destroying the Great Satan and LIttle Satan were supposed to construe that message as being peaceful?

          • Rob Pobe

            Lovingly peaceful because it is in the name of Islam

          • Edward smith

            Has iran murdered american scientists ?

          • oneteedoffpatriot

            I don’t know. But abortionists over here have killed millions. Maybe you should worry about them.

          • Edward smith

            But who was talking points?

          • defcon 4

            Does Iran fund, train and equip islam0nazi terrorists?

          • Edward smith

            no.

        • Lynn Rivera

          You are just a trouble-maker.

        • Drakken

          If they build nukes, I say burn the effing place to the ground.

          • Edward smith

            send your money. send your kids

          • Drakken

            You go ahead and bend over and suck up to muslim savages in the hope that the won’t eliminate you and yours, in the end, flower power children like you always get buried in the high moral ground in the end.

          • Edward smith

            How is Iran having a peaceful nuclear program savage?

    • Lynn Rivera

      Well, that is nuts. We have NEVER ever negotiated or dialogued with terrorists. Remember we declared war on them.

      • Edward smith

        Were the soviets terrorists?

        • defcon 4

          What do the Soviet have to do w/the Islamic “republic” of Iran? Oh, that’s right nothing, nothing at all, because your “argument” is nothing more than a stinking red herring.

          • Edward smith

            The soviets had 40,000 nuclear weapons and we didn’t have to go to war with them.

          • defcon 4

            And some dogs have fleas.

          • Edward smith

            we don’t have to go to war

        • Lynn Rivera

          Well, Edward, the soviets were terrorists of a sort, but not on the magnitude of the terrorists of our day. Surely you know that. Perhaps you are not searching for truth but just trying to pick a fight.

          Know for a fact that Obama is no peacemaker. He is no Reagan. He is no Lincoln. On the contrary, Obama is fomenting civil war in America in order to push through his agenda, as well as selling us out to our enemies. In short, he is Terrorist-in-Chief. I have been threatened numerous times by people who support him in order to suppress the truth. I can only think that they are blinded. Are you?

    • Rob Pobe

      The Great Islamic Nation of Iran has the right to suffer the consequences of its terrorism

      • Drakken

        Burn motherfu**er Burn!

    • oneteedoffpatriot

      Are you high? We didn’t sit down and talk with the Soviets. We destroyed them through economic warfare and massive military buildup that they couldn’t match. Sure, there were summits but that was just for the Soviets to size us up. When they walked away from Reagan they knew it was over. When enemies walk away from Obama, they know they’ve won.

  • Rob Pobe

    The Obama Administration has announced plans to open air travel to “The Great Islamic Terrorist Airways of Iran” and import direct flights from Tehran to NYC beginning immediately.

    • defcon 4

      Wow. I’m glad I don’t live in NYC. I wonder how many nuclear devices can be concealed on an Iranian Airways 757 or Airbus? Maybe the citizens of NYC will get to find out!

  • Lynn Rivera

    It certainly is a lose-lose for us. Iran comes out on top with all the goodies, freedom to produce nukes and still gets to call Obama a liar. What a deal. It might appear that Obama is inexperienced, inept and challenged in international politics, however, it may just be more of his wicked cunning. How clever to help his terrorist friends at our expense. How cunning to strand our allies and make it look like it just happened and he is “innocent”. Obama’s true colors are coming out for all the world to see. The shame for us is that we used to be a great nation, a lender nation, a nation that commanded respect in the world. Obama has dismantled all that. What a success story. What a legacy.

  • http://fdnyretiree.com/ Ed FDNYRetiree

    Obama IS the devil!