China and Iran Draw Conclusions on Crimea

Ari Lieberman is an attorney and former prosecutor.


china_iran_flagAs Putin moves to consolidate his hold on Crimea, concern grows that Russia’s expansionist appetite will not be satiated with conquest of the peninsula. Ukraine fears that Putin’s next move will entail seizure of eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian sentiment remains high. Some news outlets intimated that the tiny nation of Estonia, once part of the Soviet Union may be next on Russia’s wish list with reports about Russia’s concern over the treatment of ethnic Russians in the Baltic country.

Some, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (she later backtracked) and Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird have compared Russia’s actions in Crimea with those of Nazi Germany and its unlawful seizure of Sudetenland in 1938, suggesting correctly that aggression unchecked will simply lead to more aggression. While there are certainly similarities between the two scenarios in that the leaders of both nations feigned concern for their kinsmen as the impetus for invading the sovereign territory of another nation, the similarities stop there.

Hitler was a madman, prone to irrational and rash decisions. He was infamous for refusing advice offered by seasoned Prussian military officers infinitely more capable than his limited mental abilities. Putin, by contrast is cold, cunning and calculated. An ex-KGB officer, Putin is by definition a cautious, analytical man who does not embark on an endeavor without thinking it through. Hence, when his troops entered Crimea, they did not bear any insignias that would betray their nationality thus gaining a measure of plausible deniability. While a confused NATO was scrambling to react to rapid developments, Putin had already thought things through to the minutest detail.

Putin realizes that any further moves into Ukraine will likely invite biting sanctions and other political repercussions and any move on the Baltic countries will provoke direct confrontation with NATO. Thus, the Ukrainian crisis will end in Crimea and go no further. Putin recognizes that he’s pushed the Crimean envelope as far as it could go and he is satisfied with this result. The aggressor has attained its objective while at the same time exposing and highlighting a feckless American foreign policy.

Events in Crimea and the Obama administration’s impotence in dealing with aggression have also had far-reaching, negative global implications. There are two nations watching events unfold with keen interest. China and Iran, two dictatorial countries with imperialistic and expansionist agendas, can draw comfort from a pusillanimous American foreign policy.

In the South and East China seas, China is aggressively seeking to expand its maritime borders. It has made significant headway in both these areas with a muscular military approach designed to intimidate American regional allies like Japan and the Philippines. America’s feeble response to Putin’s aggression in Crimea will only serve to embolden a resurgent and aggressive China, making the likelihood of a regional war in that neglected theatre a real possibility.

The situation with respect to Iran is even more acute. Iran is arguably the greatest threat to world peace since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial and military support to groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Taliban, Iraqi insurgents and Hezbollah. Its terror tentacles have extended beyond the Mideast to Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Americas and its connection to narco-terrorism is well established.

Israel’s recent naval interception of the Klos-C, a terror bound cargo vessel laden with Iranian arms, including some forty, long-range M-302 rockets, only serves to underscore the scheming nature and menace posed by that pariah nation.

But it is Iran’s nuclear ambitions coupled with its aggressive ballistic missile program that are most worrisome, with implications far beyond the region.  Iran is now cognizant of the fact that the Obama administration, exercising what John McCain so aptly described as a “feckless” foreign policy, will do nothing to thwart the Islamic Republic from achieving breakout capacity. Once that occurs, the free world will be at the mercy of an apocalyptic Islamic theocracy and that should be a source of concern for us all.

Freedom Center pamphlets now available on Kindle: Click here.

Subscribe to Frontpage’s TV show, The Glazov Gang, and LIKE it on Facebook.

  • running up that hill

    Shouldn’t Israel be “..watching events unfold with keen interest”?

    The West’s current poise as defender and enforcer of international law may hold grave implications for Israel in the near future.

    Similar to Russias illegal annexation of Crimea, Israel illegaly holds East-Jerusalem and Golan under annexation and promotes illegal settlements in its West-Jordan occupation zone.

    This leaves the West in the dilemma of trying to assemble an international law enforcement coalition in the case of Russia and at the same time defending and promoting the breech of international law in Israels case.

    Obama has repeatedly warned of this “unsustainamility of israeli occupation politics”. The Crimea crisis could well mark the forced end of Western patronization towards Israel, the end of Western UN vetos in favour of Israel and the beginning of substantial political and economical boycotts of Israel.

    • logdon

      I was going to reply to your gibberish in more detail but a simple, ‘hogwash’ will do it.

      • running up that hill

        Another point of “keen interest” to Israel should also be the implications of the West isolating Russia. As Putin has already publicly stated, in this case Russia plans to “rethink” its approach to Iran. In plain English – Support for Irans nuclear ambitions and SS20 systems for Irans air defense.

        • Ellsworth Toohey

          Keep in mind you are dealing with a cunning man, a chess player, not a feeble crypto muslim socialist like obama.

          • BagLady

            You’re right. A shrewd and physically fit fighting man. In this instance, I empathise totally with him. Russia has been sidelined for decades and, unless he fights back, he will be taken over by Europe and NATO armies. The man’s in a pincer grip on three sides for g-d’s sake. What would you do in his position?

            I shall be interested to see how he deals with the obvious onslaught of ‘covert interference’.

          • zoomie

            countless brave men died so you could live free. in your case their sacrifice obviously wasn’t worth it.

          • Drakken

            Silly commi Brit, your parents must be so proud of you for selling out to the 3rd world.

          • BagLady

            Selling out to the 3rd World? It’s a big place, the third world and Russia is neither third nor communist. Or hadn’t you heard?

        • kasandra

          Since Israel was attacked from the “West Bank” and the Golan in 1967, under international law it can retain those areas, especially, but not only, since Syria and the PA have not signed peace treaties with it. Period. Also, the SS-20 was an intermediate range multiple warhead surface-to-surface missile deployed by the USSR in the late 1970s/early 1980s leading to the U.S. deployment of the Pershing II and GLCMs in Western Europe and Great Britain. Russia has not offered it to Iran or anyone else. The surface-to-air missiles Putin has allegedly offered to Iran are S-300s, a very capable weapon. I don’t know where you get your information but you should change sources.

          • T800

            S-300 is an AIR DEFENSE missile system,not any offensive weapon. like our Patriot SAM. not a ballistic missile.
            S-300 would make it much harder for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. trouble is,Iran has made copies of the S-300 and built their own air defense missile system. they also copy the US 1st.generation Standard missile,from units left from the Shah’s reign. Iran also gets technical assistance from China,who also copies Russian weapons systems,and adds their own modernized electronics.(with tech data stolen from US)

          • kasandra

            Re: The S-300 – I know it’s not a ballistic missile. That’s why I said “The surface-to-air missiles Putin has allegedly offered to Iran are S-300s, a very capable weapon.” Surface-to-air means it is designed to combat aerial targets, like airplanes. The Russians claim the S-300 is also capable against helicopters, cruise missiles, and precision guided weapons. Given that the Russians have a history of selling other countries what they at least used to refer to as the “monkey model” of their weapons (de-contented inferior versions of weapons the Russians themselves fielded), the Iranians and others may well get a better weapon from the PRC.

    • Ellsworth Toohey

      Crimea WAs and again IS Russia ! International law ? Ha Ha Ha ! What about NATO attack on Serbia ? Next time vote for a Putin, not a jerk like obama.

    • BagLady

      Let’s not fog the picture with non-associated issues. This is not about Israel.

    • T800

      there’s NOTHING “illegal” about Israel’s holding of the West Bank and Jerusalem; they won control of those lands in wars initiated by the Arabs.
      back in 1948,the Arabs REFUSED a two-state solution,so those lands remained UNASSIGNED. NO ownership by any nation.

      Besides,nobody was claiming “illegal” when Jordan and Egypt seized the West Bank and Gaza in 1948,when they had NO authority to do so.
      Apparently,you have a double standard, a hypocritical position.
      your position is based on GIGO.

  • Ellsworth Toohey

    To summarize, Putin is smart, obama is dumb !

    • Fudge

      While ovomit is stupid, the problem is he is an insane, commie, muslim mass murdering illegal alien psychotic “man” and we don’t even know his real name.

      • Gerry

        Might not even his own name himself.Was he born or was he hatched?

    • Edward E

      What people don’t realize is that White people have not consented to having their borders opened to floods of non-White immigration, PERIOD.

      This is something that has been FORCED down the throats of White people and ONLY White people.

      We have been systematically targeted for a particular form of geNOcide, in this case a FORCE-assimilation (same as Tibet).

      We have not consented to being assimilated out of existence, that’s what makes this a geNOcide.

      Anti-racist is a >code< for anti-White

      • SCREW SOCIALISM

        “We have been systematically targeted for a particular form of geNOcide, in this case a FORCE-assimilation (same as Tibet):

        Hey genius, Tibet ain’t majority white.

        Did your mother drop you on your socialist swastika?

      • BagLady

        I was under the impression that Russians are ‘white’, the US is ‘white’ and Europe is ‘white’. Not sure where you’re coming from.

        • A Z

          I do not like Edward E.

          The Pakistanis flooding Britain are white?
          There are similar problems in Russia and Europe.

          You literally have no borders.

  • Infidel4Ever

    I agree with Mr. Lieberman’s assessment of what Obama’s weakness will mean regarding China and Iran. However, I disagree with him on Putin’s ambitions. Putin will seize the eastern Ukraine (if not all of it) and Estonia as well if the opportunity presents itself. NATO is weak and divided, and the so called “leader of the free world” is an appeasing ignorant fool. The sanctions levied so far on Russia are laughable at best, and I have no doubt Putin can intimidate the EU to not go along with President Opuffbama and his silly, weak sanctions.

    • BagLady

      If the West had any sense it would hold its hands up and accept Putin’s right to a safety zone. After all, the big guns are all pointing in one direction and they ain’t pointing west.

      If he ‘takes’ the whole of Ukraine it will affect no-one but IMF corporate interests and they aren’t likely to lie down and die without a dirty blood-soaked fight.

      • A Z

        Are you daft? What guns were pointed at Russia?

        The Europeans do not have a credible military.they could not take on Libya for crying out loud.

        Are you seriously implying that Russia is weaker than Libya?

      • Hass

        You are right about IMF. But I disagree about the EU big guns.

    • T800

      I agree;there’s no reason to believe that Comrade Obama would respond to a NATO call for help after an attack on a NATO member by Russia.
      it’s far easier to believe he’d renege.(“”evolve” a different opinion”,in Newspeak)

  • sam000

    The world’s security & stability lays on US’s position & reaction, if US oppose an occupation & aggression with no adequate reaction, the aggressor will feel the weakness and inability of the sole power capable of warrantying the international laws and pacts and treaties,
    Obama’s picture on US power emboldens all kind of regional and continental dictatorial to exercise their agendas,
    Obama’s presidency is more dangerous than Russian occupation and China’s ambitions,
    Obama encourages and empowers Iran going nuclear.
    what the free world is loosing with Obama, we will gain a overall disorder that will slide us on NUCLEAR WWIII.

    • BagLady

      The world’s security & stability lays on US’s position &
      reaction, if US oppose an occupation & aggression with no adequate
      reaction, the aggressor will feel the weakness and inability of the sole
      power capable of warrantying the international laws and pacts and
      treaties, ”

      You’re right, stability in Ukraine rests in US arms. Let’s see if they deal with it with aggression, as you advocate, or take a more sophisticated approach.

      • A Z

        It is written by people like BagLady on the side of a mountain somewhere that appeasement is more sophisticated than force of arms.

        I do not know that America was involved in the Maidan protests. I suspect it, but I do not know. I really do not expect the legacy media to divulge anything they may know because their Messiah is in office and they do not want to hurt him politically.

        If a full accounting had been done in Benghazi I would have been more confident what the U.S. government would or would not do.

        • BagLady

          A recap…..

          It began on Jan 18 when activists handed out leaflets calling for people to attend a mass protest the next day against the dictatorial rule of Viktor Yanukovych.

          These activists were of the Chornovil school: advocating peaceful separation from the Soviet Union, human rights, and protection of minorities. However the protest was infiltrated and taken over by the Svoboda and Right Sector parties who chose violence as their preferred negotiating tool.

          The West was very quick to accept these two parties as the new government, ignoring the Chornovil camp. Perhaps they, like AZ, find their form of politics quite sophisticated enough…. for their purposes.

          • A Z

            If Obama had spent time explaining Svoboda and other parties and events in Ukraine instead of telling us his March Madness picks things would be better.

            Since when did I say I supported Svoboda? That’s right I didn’t!

            To allow Putin to take Crimea through force of arms instead of a plebiscite and to do nothing, that is appeasement. That only begs more trouble in the future.

            But you do not have to worry because … you have no kids. So it is all good.

          • BagLady

            I don’t know what all you who advocate ‘freedom’ understand by the word. I see a swift referendum of the plebs that returns near enough 100% pro Russian governance for Crimea as freedom.

            To suggest that Putin took it by force is stretching things a bit.

            It can’t end there though, can it. A stretch of farmland is not going to stop the NATO progress. He needs Kiev, and that’s when the West will fight.

            I still believe that Putin should bide his time. I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever that signing up to Europe will benefit the young Ukrainians who make up the majority of pro-Europe camp. The pro Russian old folk remember the good old days when there was industry, good food and a paid for 2 week summer holiday at a Black Sea Resort.

            I see rivers of blood.

          • A Z

            “I don’t know what all you who advocate ‘freedom’ understand by the word. I see a swift referendum of the plebs that returns near enough 100% pro Russian governance for Crimea as freedom”

            You are delusional. Seek help.

            Myself I expected the resolution to pass with north of 60% of the vote. My question was how the Tatars, ethnic Ukrainians and others would vote. In a fair election the referendum would win with 55 to 70% of the vote. As it is it was an unfair plebiscite and a fraud.

            NSDAP also had paid vacations. Your point is?

            At least the kids you don’t have will not see the rivers of blood.

          • BagLady

            Who says I have no kids? Prying into my private life again….

          • A Z

            It is germane to the topic. I cannot see a person with kids being as deluded and subjective in your view of current affairs and world history.

        • BagLady

          Americans weren’t involved in the Maidan protests because there wasn’t time. They were organised just the day before by idealistic young folk. NGO involvement will be more insidious, I suspect.

          • A Z

            If the CIA or state department are there with their fingers in the pie, they did not show up the day after Maidan. sorry that dog doesn’t walk.

            Now what they were up to is matter for debate.

  • Bobby

    If the author had realized the pattern of Putin having taken Georgia during the 2008 Olympics, one could better believe he actually understands the current situation.

    https://google.com/search?tbm=nws&q=Kasparov+Putin+Crimea+Georgia

  • SoCalMike

    compounding Obama’s ideological stupidity is him being surrounded by like minded officials and a brainwashed left wing press corps that thinks just like he does.

  • BagLady

    Ukraine fears that Putin’s next move will entail seizure of eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian sentiment remains high.

    If the people of Eastern Ukriane are pro-Russian then that is their own business. They no doubt have their reasons and those reasons are probably financial.

    • Drakken

      Wrong again, as usual. The Ukraine whether Russian in origin or native Ukrainian, they want to be Ukrainian not Russian, and if you had ever been there like I have(numerous times) you would bloody well know that.

      • BagLady

        They want to be Ukrainians not a puppet European state milked for its assets. Take a look at EU members. Only the strong, northern states of Germany, France etc are surviving. The rest are being reduced to poverty as members’ assets are handed over to the usual handful of banks.

        Why do they want to join? Ha. It’s the bent politicians who sign up for huge loans, not the people.

        Here’s one: http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/oleksandr-panteleymonov-first-channel-attack-2014-03-19

        • A Z

          “. It’s the bent politicians who sign up for huge loans, not the people.” – BagLady

          It is the people, who elect the politicians with the expectations the politicians will play Santa Claus.
          Oh the IRONY!

          $$$ for nothing & the chicks for free!

          • BagLady

            It isn’t the people stealing the money. What happened to the previous two $multi-billion loans? Most of it gone abroad, no doubt.

            If Putin took Kiev, would Ukraine still need the $50 billion loan from the IMF?

          • A Z

            I went over your head.

            I was talking about the welfare policies of nations like Greece. The socialists politicians get elected promising so much that they have to borrow and raise tax rates to exorbitant levies, which people have to skirt. Because of the nonpayment of crushing taxes the socialist dogs have to borrow more to stay elected.

            You have to cringe when you see the name Papandreou and Prime Minister. You know a train wreck is coming and it won’t be pretty.

          • BagLady

            True, but note the steep curve once they’d been taken into ‘care’. Let’s face it, the IMF knew they were a lost cause but didn’t care. They sent in their favorite bankers to ‘re-arrange’ the figures to comply with entry requirements.

            Greece has so many assets, the Corps eyes must have been watering. All that tax-free shipping. THE most important historical sites so loved by tourists. I can only imagine the army of Christine’s smooth talking salesmen that accompanied her, dancing in step to her tune. As she lent the $billions they took the orders with the little financial benefits built into her system for the particular minister signing on the dotted line. Take a look at their defence spending sometime. It’s quite ridiculous.

          • A Z

            “True, but note the steep curve once they’d been taken into ‘care’”

            Are you sure about it?

            Why don’t you consider an analogy from the world of material science. Figure 1 attached probably won’t come out right. The point is that for a while stress is proportional to strain. Then after the graph knees over people think the stress is not going up things must be okay. In fact stress actually dips down a little bit. But deformation/ strain continues and the material / element /structure under stress catastrophically fails. The point is that you cannot put the system under that much stress (debt) for such a prolonged time and expect a happy ending. Interest change & often rate go up & debt service eats more and more of the budget/ incoming revenues. There was going to be a sky rocket no matter if the IMF stepped in or not. Debt snowballs. Try it with your credit card as an experiment.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stress-strain_curve

  • http://www.twitter.com/changeirannow Change Iran Now

    Unfortunately Russia has learned a
    valuable lesson in its takeover of the Crimea and that is there is virtually no downside to their behavior. Now they are really going to be flexing its muscle in leveraging the global concern over Iran’s nuclear program into further advantages for itself. It’s almost tragic that the issue of protecting the world from nuclear proliferation now becomes a bargaining chip in a renewal of the old Cold Warmchess match.

    • BagLady

      I see it does not occur to you that perhaps Russia is in the right here.

  • BagLady

    It does not bode well for the people of Ukraine. Regardless of claims by the West that Ukrainians want to join the EU, the fact is around 70% of the population is pro-Putin and does not want IMF interference.

    For Ukraine to join NATO they are required to eject Russian forces from the port of Sevastapol. What chances are there of Putin removing his Black Sea Fleet? None.

    I feel a battle coming on.

    • A Z

      “For Ukraine to join NATO they are required to eject Russian forces from the port of Sevastapol”

      Source?

      • BagLady

        That stipulation may well change this week now that Crimea has gone. In fact, all stipulations will probably be dropped (Greece had its books deliberately cooked specifically to get it into the EU) in the West’s determination to swallow country after country to progress their military bases and US hegemony.

        • A Z

          The Greek politicians cooked the books to fool the EU is different from the EU unelected politicians from cooking the books for them.

          There is a vast difference in culpability between the former and the latter.

          I think it is more a matter of “caveat emptor”. It is usually the seller that is lying. The seller in this case would be a cabal of Greek politicians.

        • A Z

          “West’s determination to swallow country after country to progress their military bases and US hegemony” …yada, yada, yada, …

          Since you believe tall tales here is one. I was at a meeting in the Pentagon and I saw the plans for Britain. Scotland was going to become a bombing range for the Air Force and Navy (we lost Vieques) and Lowland Britain was going to become a wildlife hunting preserve filled with foxes, deer and pheasant for off duty troops. of course there will be clearances. The displaced peasants will be sent to Chinese sweatshops to replace their graying population.

          My story is more entertaining than your story and is just as true.

        • A Z

          Oh and I asked for a source and got jack!

    • A Z

      If the straits of Dardanelles are blocked by Turkey or anyone else, the Black see is a pond much like U.S. aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf.

      Russia’s Black Sea fleet ships are fish in a barrel.

      No different than tanks in a city. That is they are targets.

  • http://www.poscieldladzieci.pl Wioletta23

    W przypadku gdy już żadne leki nie wspierają Ci z wychodzeniem włosów, musisz pomyśleć o operacji. Transplantacja włosów na pewno zadziała. Zabieg jest w mięsiści pewny i przywraca piękny wygląd wszelkiemu konsumentowi.

  • Janina

    W niektórych sprawach jeden pewny prawnik nam nie starczy do zyskania wszelkiej materie. Każdy z nich ma swoją specjalność, w której jest bardzo dogodny. Dlatego również adwokaci ze sobą współdziałają. Kancelaria adwokacka Poznań to najkorzystniejsza team w mieście.

  • krowka

    Promocja spółki jest kluczem do jej sukcesu. Dzięki trafnie uwieńczonej wojen reklamowej potrafimy pozyskać wielu świeżych jadących. Jedną z możności, które potrafią zostawać w niej wykorzystane są krówki reklamowe z śladem firmowym. Przydają się one idealnie do kariery wszelkiej firmy.

  • Karolina

    Izolacje wysokotemperaturowe idealnie zajmują Twoje miejsce. Dzięki nim zdołasz uratować się przed płomieniami. Bądź uważny i zabezpiecz się przed taką możnością. Będziesz zdołał kimać spokojnie z nauką, że Twoja rodzina jest w kompletni bezpieczna.

  • http://babybedclothes.co.uk/index.php?route=product/category&path=86 akinom99

    Stroje dla młodych ludzi to meritum każdego rodziciela. Ważne, by ciuchy były doskonałe w dotyku. Nie ma mowy, aby dziecko męczyło się w ubraniu, które nie posiada atestu, jest niebezpieczne dla skóry bądź najzwyczajniej w świecie niewygodne. Skutkiem tego należałoby
    dbać o to, w czym chodzi potomek. Jeśli leży Państwu na sercu wygoda dziecka, serdecznie zapraszamy na witrynę cheap mattress. To sklep, który oferuje moc artykułów dla każdego rodzica bądź też opiekuna. Zapewniamy, że jakość idzie w parze z niskimi cenami. Wyśmienicie rozumiemy potrzeby rodziców, w następstwie tego oferujemy im nadzwyczajny asortyment, którym nie może pochwalić się żaden inny punkt sprzedaży.

  • kwiatek90

    Kleje, smary, oleje oraz wiele więcej. Bardzo dobrze rozumiemy potrzeby mechaników, majsterkowiczów oraz wszystkich, którzy troszczą się o to, co maszynowe. Wobec tego stworzyliśmy sklep, który oferuje Primer! Dla nas nie ma asortymentu powiązanego z klejami bądź olejami, którego byśmy nie znali. Najlepsi fabrykanci najmniejsze ceny, najszybsza realizacja. Tym charakteryzuje się nasz sklep. Jeśli w związku z tym wyszukują Państwo pomocy w odnalezieniu najlepszego asortymentu – zapraszamy do nas. Zapewniamy bardzo dobrą obsługę i podejście do konsumenta, które godne będzie medalu.

  • http://www.czescidomaszyn.com/ bigbit99

    Nasza korporacja specjalizuje się w dostarczaniu najwyższej jakości części do machin budowlanych. Jeśli w takim razie wyszukują Państwo pomocy w tej dyscyplinie – gorąco zapraszamy na domenę internetową oraz do skorzystania z oferty. Zapewniamy, że czesci komatsu na pewno Państwa nie zawiodą. Identycznie, jak ceny, które są atrakcyjne oraz najniższe na rynku. W końcu stworzona przez nas|nasza idealna korporacja to fachowcy, którzy znają się na rzeczy.