Study: Obama Overestimated ObamaCare Signups by 3.2 Million

Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is a New York writer focusing on radical Islam. He is completing a book on the international challenges America faces in the 21st century.


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What’s a few million people here or there when you’re busy doing your victory dance in the endzone? Sure millions of people lost their insurance, prices are high for people who work for a living and you pay more and get less.

And that 7 million sign ups that Team Obama would like to tattoo on their foreheads? Try a few million less.

According to the RAND study…

There’s a big spike in Medicaid, just as everyone expected. There’s a less big but still seven-digit drop in coverage on the individual market, as people discovered that if you like your plan, you might not be able to keep it. There’s not quite four million sign-ups on the new ObamaCare exchanges, not seven million and change like Obama insisted in the Rose Garden.

And the problems expand from there

The RAND Corporation estimates that only one-third of Obamacare sign ups were from the previously uninsured. Meaning the others, or two-thirds, simply switched from their previous insurance plan to a new exchange plan. Should those be considered enrollees? Or is this simply rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

How many enrollees are on Medicaid? In my home state, 57 percent of Connect for Colorado sign-ups are on Medicaid rather than an exchange plan. Since, “Enrollment is defined as the number of individuals who have picked a health insurance plan from the Obamacare marketplace,” picking Medicaid would count as enrollment.

So the of the 7.1 million enrollees for which the President took a ‘victory lap,’ most already had insurance, most enrolled in Medicaid, and most have not paid their premiums. And the number of uninsured, who served as an impetus for passing Obamacare, remains much the same.

And there’s a really, really big margin of of error.

The RAND study comes with a big caveat, however. The topline number of 9.3 million contains a margin of error of 3.5 million people.

  • CaoMoo

    Nothing spells victory quite like defeat.