Will Cantor’s Loss Kill Republican Enthusiasm for Amnesty?

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After a series of defeats, a Tea Party candidate finally claimed a major scalp. Cantor had never been a particularly strong candidate and the Tea Party benefited from having a large committed turnout, while Cantor’s voters stayed home.

It’s tempting to celebrate Cantor’s defeat as the end of amnesty. But it’s unrealistic.

The GOP establishment has seen plenty of warning signs, but it has moved forward nonetheless. Its response to an amnesty setback is to retool the lies they’re telling. They can’t give up on the agenda because it’s all they have to cling to after the 2012 defeat and it’s backed by wealthy and powerful special interests.

The establishment will be staggered, but its consultants will put together an explanation and the story will be spun and respun. Cantor’s loss will be treated as an outlier that happened as a result of an unlikely converge of circumstances. The survival of the establishment candidates, even noxious ones, will be seen as proof of that. If Graham can win, then the fault was in Cantor. If Boehner can win, then the fault was in Cantor. It’s what they will keep telling themselves.

Privately some GOPers will step a bit more carefully, but they will no more back down from amnesty after one defeat than Obama backed down from his policy agenda after 2010.

Politicians respond to a setback by copying the language of some of their opponents and then looking for a way to relaunch their agenda. It takes multiple humiliating defeats for that to change.

Cantor’s loss is painful, but it will be seen by the GOP establishment as the fall of one man, not a rebuke to their amnesty agenda.

A single setback won’t stop amnesty. Only a sustained effort will.

  • SoCalMike

    Too bad we didn’t get Boehner and Graham but I’m more than happy and pleased to put this one in the bag.
    In fishing terminology we call this a keeper!

  • AndyTexan

    Dear Anti-Left voters: vote against all stealth progressive, amnesty supporting republican candidates who manage to get past the primary in Nov.

    • Wolfthatknowsall

      I agree, with one caveat. Vote against them in the primaries. But when the general election comes in November, vote for them. There’s no choice. The GOP must have control of the Senate, next January, to shut down the Obama agenda.

    • knowshistory

      your leftist slip is showing. we should vote against stealth leftists who call themselves republicans and vote for the real thing–barking mad liberal democrats who make no secret at all of their desire to rule us as they destroy our nation and replace our population with foreign invaders? nice advice, leftie.

  • DB1954

    This can’t help but be a warning to Republicans: back away and put down amnesty.

    • Lanna

      Flooding the borders shows Obama and the Left will do anything to win..they don’t care about people, they care about power!

      • honeybee

        You not begin to imagine how alful the conditions on the border have become, the diseases they are carrying is horrific. .

        • Lanna

          And these illegals could carry an epidemic of diseases into our country..that is extremely dangerous…that’s how you know the president does not care and wants this country to be destroyed.

          • honeybee

            measles-chicken pox- scabies-strep-staph are already showing up. . These are unwanted and abandoned children.

    • pupsncats

      The establishment will spin and spin this loss but in the end, it doesn’t matter. They are paid and controlled by those interests who stand to gain by granting amnesty and in the end, they will support it.

      • Suzanne

        Fear you are correct, however, I’m praying that, FINALLY, SOMETHING will happen to scare the Republican policy makers into again merging with the core values of conservatism. For WAY too long, we’ve been sold out by both sides of the political aisle!

        • pupsncats

          It will take nothing short of a miracle for the people in this country to wake up and face reality. All that is done is either temporarily fix part of a problem or kick the can down the road so that a more serious problem is faced by the next generation.
          We are at a point where living in a fantasy world is crushing all our ability to survive. We simply will not face the complexity and seriousness of the problems we have, some of which we have created and thus can be solved while others, such as terrorism, will take a very serious and honest appraisal to mitigate (which our current president refuses to do.)

    • Lanna

      The Establishment Republicans have been wrong on this issue…..Amnesty will not give them more voters, they will give the Democrats more voters. Some of the Establishment Republicans are acting like Democrats, and the voters are not going to have two Democrat parties…One that is Radical and one that is moderate….they need to start acting like Republicans and they would all win in a land slide. Make sure they are following the border laws and the Constitutution. Quit flagging foreign countries down and saying Open borders…enter here like Obama is doing. Secure the borders and show good faith, then watch their support and unity increase! We have always welcomed immigrants but with a civilized registration and wait to get in!

      • pupsncats

        Where have you been? The voters have had two Democrat parties for decades. The Republican Party is the leftwing party ruled by one half the billionairies/millionaires and the Democrat Party is the ultra-leftwing party ruled by the other half.

  • pete

    “Will Cantor’s Loss Kill Republican Enthusiasm for Amnesty?”

    We can only hope maintain a CONSTANT pressure on the Amnesty Supremacysts. Though it’s implicitly CLEAR that NO ONE should negotiate, believe, or trust ANYTHING that comes out the mout of the pResident,
    leave it to the RINOs to go “full stupor” in the direction barry leads them.

    His TAQIYYA – LYING to advance his agenda of – in this case, AMNESTY, family ‘reunification’, creating demands for TRILLIONS in new benefits for 30-80 million family members, and voting rights to stuff millions more dem votes into the ballot box – is never-ending..

    • Independent

      Obviously David Brat was able to articulate the amnesty issue and other issues clearly. That’s what we need.

      And no matter what the personal opinions of the candidates regarding abortion, gay marriage, etc., we need them to shut up about these issues during the campaign and focus on amnesty, taxes, Obamacare, overregulation, reducing the size of government, etc.

      If they will do do this and they are reasonably articulate, we will win.

      If they can’t do this, then we will not win.

      It’s really very simple.

      • Larry Larkin

        well said, stop getting side tracked by the tiny minority of feel good issues and focus on the highly important stuff, like security of borders and the economy. When you’ve fixed them you can start on the rest.

      • The March Hare

        And Brat did it with around $150,000 campaign funding against Cantor’s 2.5 million.

  • truebearing

    This has to make Boehner uncomfortable. His speakership is getting pretty tenuous too.

    The Republican leadership will stick with their arrogance. They still think they are the reason for the big win in 2010 when it was obviously Sarah Palin and the Tea Party that drove the victory.

  • Lanna

    The American people are not for amnesty…that’s what the Immigration reform is. Every one should have to apply and go through citizenship procedures..not this over night wave into the country by overwhelming the border patrols. Politicians go in office with the right attitude and then get selfish, complacent, and corrupt, they quit working for the American people. The first obligation of the politicians in office is to serve the legal Americans who work, pay taxes, and vote, quit selling us out for your own selfish needs! The craziness is that the self-serving Democrats who want to be the only party, and are pushing the open borders and legalizing the illegals to collapse the system and give more free stuff to the illegals, just like they did to the other minorities in this country to gain their votes.

  • MrUniteUs1

    Cantor’s huge defeat should tell you what many already know.
    Republicans are just not into you.

  • http://grumpyelder.com/ Grumpy

    Unfortunately I agree with everything in the article

    The Reagan Amnesty was supposed to be a one time solution.. We were going to seal our borders and never have to deal with the issue again..

    Almost 30 years later the borders are still wide open.. and both Party Establishments are peddling the same lies they were 30 years ago..

    The current proposals are nothing more than politicians covering their rear ends.. For them a new amnesty essentially absolves them of responsibility for not living up to their responsibilities under the first Amnesty… and something else:

    This isn’t immigration, it’s an invasion by mass migration, encouraged by Mexico ant the governments of South and Central America..

    Article IV Section 4 Demands the Federal Government protect the States from Invasion..

    By calling the invasion, Immigration, Washington absolves itself of that obligation..

    • pupsncats

      There will never be a solution to keep illegals out of the U.S. They will keep coming. There isn’t enough money in the world to protect our borders. Besides that, both government and business WANT them here for different reasons but with that as a reality, we will continue to have them, grant them citizenship, and pretend that they are still a problem waiting for a solution.

  • pupsncats

    The loss of one RINO won’t stop the Republican establishment RINO’s from pushing forward their agenda to grant amnesty. They are only interested in votes, as the Democrats are, to have some power over we, the people. Like Democrats, the Republican Party is a majority of corrupt, greedy, arrogant, paid off losers interested only in power and control. The only difference between the two parties is who those who master over us are.

  • Gee

    Cantor also supported Odumba on the surrender of the 2nd Amendment rights. Americans don’t take kindly to either

  • Habbgun

    Too early to celebrate. Brat has to win the general election or else the Repub establishment will say he was “unelectable” and having already lost the establishment Cantor they might just be happy to see a Democrat win. We’ll see if anonymous Republicans start showing up in MSM news articles about if only blah, blah, blah was known about Brat he would have lost to Cantor.