Entirely predictable. Obama doesn’t have a strategy for Afghanistan. He has plausible deniability.
One of the differences is that this year, the American forces, and their close air support, have been almost completely absent from the field. And though the Afghan forces are holding on, for the most part, they are taking punishingly heavy losses.
The Taliban offensive in northern parts of Helmand Province began in earnest in June, after the last American troops pulled out of the area, and has continued at a fierce tempo.
Given the area’s long tradition as a Taliban stronghold, the authorities expected the June and July offensive, which at some points threatened the fall of both Sangin District and Musa Qala District. What has been unusual is the apparent determination of the Taliban to continue pressing the fight.
The insurgents even managed to infiltrate the Afghan National Army’s main base in Helmand Province, Camp Shorab Maidan, formerly called Camp Bastion when it served as Britain’s main base in Afghanistan.
Now, it is the headquarters of the army’s 215th Corps. The infiltration was not the first on the sprawling base, and the insurgents managed to destroy aircraft during a raid on the base in 2012. But this one took three days to completely subdue, even after the authorities insisted it was over on both the first and again on the second day. The British had handed the base over to the Afghans only a month earlier.
When it takes you three days to secure your own base, you’re in big trouble. This is why Obama delayed a complete pullout. He’s been briefed thoroughly on what will happen and he’s playing the plausible deniability game.
Instead of repeating his mistake with ISIS, he’s keeping the US indefinitely in a halfway point with enough engagement to make it look like he’s still involved, but not enough to actually a real difference.
Nationwide, Afghanistan has lost more than 5,000 police and soldiers in the fighting this year, more than any previous year, according to official Afghan data that has not been formally released, but that was obtained by The New York Times and confirmed by Western officials familiar with the data.
The year has also hit a new high for civilian deaths in the fighting, which the United Nations estimates will exceed 10,000 by the end of 2014.
So much for smart power and courageous restraint.





















