Iran: ‘The Great Satan’ Still Our ‘Number One Enemy’

Hassan-RouhaniThe deadline for a final and comprehensive nuclear deal between the Iranian leaders and the six world powers (the P5+1: China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) is approaching in less than two weeks on November 24th .

It seems that the White House is also investing in the notion that after a final nuclear deal is struck between Tehran and the P5+1, and after economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic are removed, Iranian leaders will alter their foreign policies and regional hegemonic ambitions. This argument is anchored in unrealistic and naïve expectations. If we closely analyze the Islamic Republic’s political and power structures, as well as its major sources of legitimacy, it becomes evident that a major and fundamental change in Iranian leaders’ political calculations is completely unlikely.

Domestically speaking, for over thirty years, by blaming and pointing fingers to the United States and Israel for almost every social and political challenge that the Islamic Republic encounters, the government has been capable of deflecting attention from the high unemployment rate among the youth, high inflation, corruption, nepotism, social injustice, lack of freedoms (speech, press, assembly, etc.), and lack of equal opportunity. The fundamental and underlying tenets of the Islamic Republic are anchored in opposing the United States and Israel and their foreign policies in the Middle East.

Secondly, from the Iranian leaders’ perspective, in order to be capable of legally oppressing and cracking down on domestic opposition, the regime must maintain an anti-American posture. Normally, any individual that criticizes the structure and legitimacy of the Iranian government, ruling clerics and the Supreme Leader, is characterized as a US agent, conspirator and traitor. These charges allow the government to use its judiciary system to oppress opposition and maintain its power.

Recently, in the midst of the international tensions and negotiations regarding Iran’s contentious nuclear program, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a statement to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency pointing out that the United States, “the Great Satan,” remains the Islamic Republic’s “number one enemy.” The IRGC’s statement read, “The U.S. is still the great Satan and the number one enemy of the (Islamic) revolution and the Islamic Republic and the Iranian nation.”

Also recently, thousands of pro-government Iranians gathered around the US embassy to mark the 35th anniversary of the capture of the U.S. embassy and fifty-two Americans in Tehran by militant students. Demonstrators chanted  “Death to America,” “ Death to the Great Satan,” “Death to the United Kingdom” and “Death to Israel.”

Even if a comprehensive nuclear deal is reached between the Islamic Republic and the six world powers by November 24th, Iranian leaders’ position towards the United States, Western allies and Israel will not be altered for the following ideological reasons.

Having the largest Shiite population in the region, the Islamic Republic views itself as the major epicenter of Shiite revivalism across the region. Iran’s support for its proxies, Shiite militant political groups in the region (such Hezbollah in Lebanon, Liwa al-Imam al-Husayn in Syria, Asaib Ahl al-Haqq in Iraq, etc.), will remain to define Tehran’s foreign policy. Establishing itself as the front runner and leader of Shiism has been at the fundamental core of Iran’s foreign policy and regional hegemonic ambitions since 1979. This foreign policy objective will continue to define the Islamic Republic’s identity as long as the Ayatollahs are in power.

In addition, Iranian leaders have been investing in the Syrian regime, economically and politically, for over three decades. It is totally unrealistic to argue that if a final nuclear deal is sealed and if economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic are removed, Tehran will alter its unrelenting military, financial, advisory, and intelligence support to the Alawite-based government of al-Assad.

Without a doubt, some minor changes might occur if a final nuclear is struck. For example, Iran would be more incorporated in international organizations, particularly economically, and it would gradually open up its market to foreign and Western investors. It follows that the Islamic Republic will have to embed some international financial standards into its economic system. Nevertheless, the office of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and IRGC will remain the key economic generators with a monopoly over major industries and will be reluctant to allow equal opportunity and redistribution of wealth to the lower classes.

Furthermore, being incorporated more into world economic systems does not necessarily indicate that more political freedom, as well as civil liberties, will be granted to ordinary Iranian citizens. Historical evidence reveals that economic prosperity for some states can result in implementation of robust policies to tighten control over the population and further centralize power. In other words, similar to other authoritarian governments, economic liberalization will not go hand in hand with political liberalizations in the Islamic Republic.

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  • steve b

    IT’S TIME TO GIVE IRAN AND THEIR MORONIC LEADERS EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANT – NUCLEAR WEAPONS! HAD I BEEN PRESIDENT THEIR CITIES, THEIR OIL FIELDS AND THEIR NUCLEAR AND MILITARY FACILITIES WOULD HAVE BEEN HIT WITH NUKES A LONG TIME AGO. IRAN WOULD NOW BE A RADIOACTIVE PIECE OF GLASS.

    AND I WOULD HAVE ASKED THE OTHER IDIOTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHO’S NEXT??

    • William James Ward

      There is a good part of the Iranians that should be spared if
      possible but yes their Mullahs need to go and go now. It seems
      the war will possibly be sooner than later. The Iranian leaders
      are pure evil………….William

      • SCREW SOCIALISM

        The Persian people need to be supported in their coming Civil War to liberate Persia from the Fascist Iranian devil ayatollahs.

        • William James Ward

          First Carter, then Obama messed over the
          Iranian people supporting the Jihadists.
          These people are hanged by the Mullahs
          on a regular basis to keep down complaints.
          William

          • gerry

            Hey,I alwas predicted that a Dem prez would finish what Carter started.

  • William James Ward

    Obama wants the World to trust Iran but who can trust him a proven
    liar like his friends in Tehran. It boils down to will Iran exist in the
    near future or will Israel, who will go up into nuclear ash? I am
    betting on Israel who I hope can keep their strikes on top of the
    Mullahs and their weapons of mass destruction……………William

    • gerry

      Nobody trusts Obama.

  • SCREW SOCIALISM

    DEATH to fascist iran!
    HANG the ayatollahs!
    HANG their revolutionary gestapo!

    LONG LIVE PERSIA!

  • JayWye

    Iran’s first use of a nuclear bomb may not be over Israel,but the US,a HEMP attack. A HEMP attack on the US would set us back to 19th century living conditions we are NOT prepared for,and many millions would die from starvation and disease in the first year. It could mean the end of the US. Iran has been testing SCUD launches from containerships,with HIGH altitude detonations characteristic of an EMP attack,and not usable for attacks with conventional warheads . This type of attack is not needed for Israel,Iran’s IRBMs already can reach Israel. But with the US crippled or destroyed,Iran is free to do as they please,without any other Western nation able or willing to interfere with them.

    Then there’s the other major nuke option;the “Test Baker” scenario.
    But that would only affect NYC or the DC area,not the entire nation as would an EMP attack.

    • gerry

      The Iranian won’t tangle with the Israelis,they are not stupid.The US is in their crosshair.

  • ArentIpretty

    Do not conflate the people in power with the ordinary people of Iran. They tried to rise up and Obama turned his back on them, turned his back on the Persian Spring.

  • Mladen_Andrijasevic
    • gerry

      We knew we could rely on Obama.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/DavidWLincoln David W. Lincoln

      Shouldn’t we also be concerned about Pakistan having nukes, and the fact that there are folk in that country who have pledged their allegiance to Daesh?

      • Mladen_Andrijasevic

        There is a difference. Pakistan is Sunni. Iran is Shi’a. In addition to Jihad the Shi’a have their Twelver eschatology and the Mahdi. I suggest you read the answer to question 5 of the quiz below:

        A mini 5 + 1 question quiz for Secretary Kerry
        http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2014/01/a-mini-5-1-question-quiz-for-secretary.html

        • http://twitter.com/#!/DavidWLincoln David W. Lincoln

          I recall Michael Ledeen writing about Shia & Sunni co-operating, and one example was the Karine “A”.

          Shia & Sunni can say all they want about how different they are, but one thing that they have in common is, there is no shortage of Muslims who conclude that the Haj Amin al-Husseini was closer to Muhammed, than Muhammed Nimr al-Hawari.

          • Mladen_Andrijasevic

            My point was that for the Hujetieh Shi’a the doctrine of mutuallly assured destruction MAD would not work where as for the Sunni it stilll does. Therefore Iran is much more difficult to deter than Pakistan.

            German scholar, Mattias Kuntzel:

            There are other dictatorships in the world. But only in Iran are the fantasy-worlds of antisemitism and religious mission linked with technological megalomania and the physics of mass destruction. The specific danger presented by the Iranian nuclear option stems from the unique ideological atmosphere surrounding it – a mixture of holy war and high-tec, of antisemitism and weapons-grade uranium, of death-wish and missile research, of Shiite messianism and plutonium

            Matthias Küntzel – Antisemitism, Messianism and the Cult of Sacrifice:The Iranian Holy War
            http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2012/09/matthias-kuntzel-antisemitism_8.html

            Raphael Israeli, a Hebrew University scholar of Islam about MAD:

            According to Shi’ite eschatology, the end of the world will come with the return of the Imam, whose arrival will be announced by violent pangs, unrest, wars, injustice and misery; and all the more, the more imminent his coming. Namely, mad leaders like Ahmadinejad, who are full of hatred and bellicosity, and imbued with messianic zeal and unimpressed by any worldly circumstances or restrictions, might very well, especially when controlling nuclear powers, decide to use them regardless of the costs or the consequences, as long as it will hasten the return of the Imam. For then, even the worst errors made by human leaders would, in their view, be redressed in an instant by the omnipotent Imam in the new post-apocalyptic world.

            MAD Deterrence and Mad Leaders
            http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2011/10/mad-deterrence-and-mad-leaders.html