Date Set for Iran Deal

340282_Iran-Rouhani-WMDThe six-month nuclear deal with Iran will go into effect on January 20 and the White House is nervous that its critics will lead to its undoing. As a bi-partisan majority comes together in Congress to approve further sanctions if a final deal is not reached at the end of the six months, the White House is accusing them of secretly desiring a war.

“As of that day, for the first time in almost a decade, Iran’s nuclear program will not be able to advance, and parts of it will be rolled back, while we start negotiating a comprehensive agreement to address the international community’s concerns about Iran’s program,” Secretary of State Kerry said.

This boast is based on two flimsy premises.

Firstly, Iran’s nuclear program can and will advance. The regime is still developing advanced centrifuges, enriching uranium, building ballistic missiles, and training nuclear scientists.

At the same time, the work that Iran supposedly halts will continue in North Korea. It is an error to look at the nuclear programs of the two countries as independent. They are interlocked. When North Korea advances; so does Iran.

Secondly, while it is technically true that parts of the program are “rolled back,” they are not necessarily permanent. It is true that the Iranians are required to convert its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium into an oxide that cannot be used for building a bomb, but that’s not the same thing as disarmament.

Two experts from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs explain:

“The notion that this puts the material ‘beyond use for bombs’ is simply wrong. The conversion of oxide back to uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas is not ‘time-consuming,’ is not necessarily ‘detectable,’ and it is not particularly ‘technically demanding.”

This conversion does not eliminate Iran’s 20% enriched uranium; it just makes it a little harder to use for nuclear weapons. The Iranian regime is calculating that this temporary setback will yield long-term nuclear gains. This “concession” in no way reflects a commitment by Iran not to build nuclear weapons capabilities.

A powerful bi-partisan coalition has come together in Congress that the White House worries will jeopardize its deal. Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) have written a new bill that will hit Iran with even stronger sanctions at the end of the six-month period if a comprehensive deal is not reached. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is also a critical supporter.

Their logic is solid: If sanctions are what brought Iran to the negotiating table, then the threat of harsher sanctions will compel Iran to agree to a long-term deal. If Iran does not give up its uranium enrichment, then it will face sanctions that threaten its oil industry like never before.

The Obama administration is offensively questioning  these congressmen’s sincerity. A spokesperson for the National Security Council accused them of secretly trying to trigger a war. She said if they “want the United States to take military action, they should be up front with the American people and say so.”

The administration is worried because its foreign policy legacy is at stake. The Iranian regime is threatening to walk away from the deal if new sanctions are passed. Hypocritically, it was the Obama Treasury Department that placed further sanctions on entities linked to Iran’s nuclear program after the agreement was announced.

There are also political risks for the administration. The strong showing of bi-partisan opposition threatens the deal and the administration’s credibility on Iran. President Obama says he will veto any new sanctions legislation, but he now faces a majority that can override his veto. The back-and-forth would cause numerous unfavorable news cycles and the episode would be brought up again every time in the future that Iran is talked about.

The Iranian regime is already seeing enormous benefits even before the six-month period begins on January 20. International investors are ready to pounce at the opportunity to exploit the easing of sanctions. Italy is particularly eager to end the sanctions on Iran.

Russia is on the cusp of a major deal to buy 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day, increasing the regime’s exports by a whopping 50%. Turkey is believed to have helped Iran work past the sanctions and such cooperation will only increase as the Turkish and Iranian governments become closer and closer.

This is all on top of the $7-10 billion in sanctions relief that the Obama administration publicly agree to provide Iran over the course of the six-month period. Israeli estimates put the figure at around $20 billion.

That’s the reward Iran gets for agreeing to stay 7/10ths of the way towards having bomb-grade uranium. In addition, the deal has helped push Iran’s Arab enemies into the arms of Russia and away from the U.S.

To summarize, here’s what Iran has gotten for agreeing to slow down its nuclear pursuits:

• The delaying of further sanctions

• $20 billion in sanctions relief

• Lucrative deals with international partners and investors

• A decreased likelihood of effective sanctions in the future as more countries and companies invest in Iran

• Favorable geopolitical shifts

• The preservation of its nuclear infrastructure and 20% enriched uranium

• An acknowledgement from the U.S. that Iran should be allowed to enrich to at least 5%

The Iranian regime’s participation in the deal doesn’t mean it’s had a change in heart. All it did was negotiate a deal that any nuke-seeking mullah would see as a good bargain.

The Institute on Religion and Democracy contributed to this article.

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  • antisharia

    We were stupid enough to give this administration a second term, we get what we deserve.

    • ata777

      that pretty much sums it up.

    • Bill Gutmeiler

      Pat Buchanan, a conservative by any standard in this country, would laugh in your face. The majority of Americans are sick and tired of the ‘bomb Iran’ idiots and the empire builders. Obama’s Iran agreement is good for everyone so stuff it!

      • Notalibfool

        Good for Iran, at least.

        What is your opinion of Mossadegh and the events that swept him from office?

  • ObamaYoMoma

    The people negotiating and pushing this deal with the Iranians are only slightly more ignorant and naive with respect to Islamic society and only slightly more blinded by PC multiculturalism than the writer of this article.

  • SCREW SOCIALISM

    DEATH to the Islamofsacist Cancer of Iran!

    LONG LIVE PERSIA!

  • Sniper’s Blade – S.L. Rachford

    John Kerry-was- born yesterday! Joy to Iran.

  • Walter Sieruk

    On the subject of Islam with it’s founder and prophet, Muhammad. It’s not always the guestion was he really a prophet. He might had been one. So the question was Muhammad a prophet send by God or was he a false prophet send by Satan to speak falsehoods and lead many people astray. After all, Jesus had warned “Beware of false prophets,which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” Mathew 7:15. The way to tell if a prophet, teacher, or relgion is a true one or not is does that prophet, teacher or religion have doctrines and teaching that are consistent with what the Word of God [theBible] teaches. As it is explained in Isaiah 8:20. reads “To the law and to the testimonty: ifthey speak not according to this word, it is because the it is because there is no light in them.” [KJV] In other words if a prophet ,teacher of religion teaches things that are in contradiction to the Bible than person is a false prophet or teacher and that religion is a false religion and is part of the wolrld of darkness. Islam denies tha Jesus is God this is in strong contradiction to the teachings of the Bible that teaches that Jesus is God. As seen in John 1:13. Romans 9:5. Colossians 1:15-17. Hebrews 1:8. Second Peter 1:1. Titus 2:13. First John 5:20. Furthermore , All one need to do to see that Jesus is God is to compare Isaiah 45:22,23 with Philippians 2;5-11. Likewise by comparing Psalm 89:8,9. with Mathew 8:23-27. To further understand that Jesus is God. Just by comparing the New Testament with itself will also show Jesus to be God. As in comparing John 5:2. with Romans 14:12. The list of the places that teach that Jesus is God may go on but these few are enough to show that the teaching of Islam about Jesus is in great contrast the teaching of the Bible. Many imams and mullahs wil try to cover this up by claiming that the Bible had been corupted by Christians through time. This claim ,in fact, denies or ar least understemates the Power of God to protect His word from the corruption or multilation of men through the passing of time , By the imams and mullahs trying to cut down the Bible also exposes just how little their Islamic teaching are supported in the Bible. In short. according to the Bible Islam is part of the world of darkness and is also a false religion, Proverbs 14;12. John 14:6.

  • turk182

    Comrade Obama will not even release the actual text of the “agreement”,so that people can know EXACTLY what is in it. That tells me there’s a lot of “US surrender” in there,and Comrade Obama doesn’t want it made public,not until it’s a “done deal”.

    • Bill Gutmeiler

      And you are? A residual of the Reinhard Gehlen group?

  • Bill Gutmeiler

    Oh yeah, almost forgot. Bush 41 conveniently ignored the nuclear violations by Pakistan. GW continued the practice. All of that served to destabilize further a bad situation between Pakistan and India and threaten the region. Buchanan has a good take on the issue-read his article and wake up to facts. And do turn off the Limbaugh clown show.

    • newsel

      You have your head where the sun does not shine…check out the 12th Imam and while you are there look at where they have been spending their money to welcome this prophet. All they need is the catalyst.

  • dougjmiller

    So here’s the deal that Obama hammered out with the radical Islamic dictatorship
    controlling Iran. Economic sanctions will be removed, frozen assets will be released, and the regime gets to build nuclear weapons, but only if they agree to incinerate Israel.