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	<title>FrontPage Magazine &#187; Shoshana Bryen</title>
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		<title>Underneath the Deal</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/shoshana-bryen/underneath-the-deal/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=underneath-the-deal</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Nov 2013 05:40:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Shoshana Bryen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FrontPage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bomb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kerry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=211696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ Netanyahu continues to say publicly what the President wants to hide.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/now-the-really-hard-part-starts-after-landmark-iran-nuclear-deal.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-211745" alt="now-the-really-hard-part-starts-after-landmark-iran-nuclear-deal" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/now-the-really-hard-part-starts-after-landmark-iran-nuclear-deal-450x337.jpg" width="270" height="202" /></a>The Obama administration is entitled to be furious with Israel.  Although the U.S. got bragging rights for its (one-sided-not-in-our-favor) deal with Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu remains determined publicly to say what the President wants to hide: Iran’s nuclear program could not be negotiated away, rolled back significantly or inspected properly. The only means to a signed document was for the U.S. to abandon its principles and pressure its allies. The U.S. has done that.</p>
<p>It was hard to oppose negotiations, it always is hard. Churchill said, “Its better to jaw, jaw than war, war” (you need the accent to make it work).  But a deal that is not a capitulation by one side requires two conditions: the parties must equally value the process; and there has to be a compatible endgame.  The West invested the process with much more value than did Iran, providing the mullahs with instant leverage, but most important, there was no agreed-upon end game.</p>
<p>The P5+1 wanted to negotiate the terms of Iran’s nuclear surrender; Iran was negotiating the conditions under which it will operate its nuclear program.</p>
<p>We’re familiar with the rules of buying a rug in the <i>souk</i>.  The goals are compatible – he wants to sell, you want to buy. If you want the rug more than he wants the deal, you will overpay; if he wants the deal more than you want the rug, you win.  But either way, money and rug will change hands.  Alternatively, if you want to buy a rug and he wants to sell a camel, no matter how ardently you bargain there will be no deal. Unless you change your mind and take the camel.</p>
<p>The White House took the camel.</p>
<p>Here is how it happened.  At the <a href="http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-09-24/politics/42340329_1_challenges-war-u-n-general-assembly/4">UN General Assembly</a> this year, President Obama put forward his theory of Iran’s bellicosity, ascribing motives and goals to the Islamic regime that mirror American motives and goals &#8211; starting with American mistakes. “Iranians have long complained of a history of U.S. interference in their affairs and of America’s role in overthrowing the Iranian government during the Cold War.”  Since he asserted that the nuclear program stemmed from Iranian fear of American meddling, he assuaged what he said were their concerns.  “We are not seeking regime change, and we respect the right of the Iranian people to access peaceful nuclear energy.”  Then he promised what he called a better future. “I do believe that if we can resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, that can serve as a major step down a long road toward a different relationship based on mutual interests and mutual respect.”</p>
<p>But what if Iran doesn’t believe we have “mutual interests” and seeks a future in which the Islamic Republic is the hegemonic Gulf power and the United States is banished from the region, leaving its Sunni allies and Israel without a patron? (Russia is already taken.) What if Iran seeks religious hegemony over the world’s Muslim population, which requires supporting Syria and Hezbollah in the face of more numerous Sunni adversaries?</p>
<p>In that case the nuclear program is not an “issue” to be “resolved,” but a means toward a considered end.  <a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/why-a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-is-so-hard#.Uozx0YEQjHU.twitter">Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei</a> – the only real power in Iran – believes, as did the Ayatollah Khomeini before him, that the program is the determinant of Iran’s power and prestige, and necessary to resist political and economic domination by the West. A nuclear-capable Iran would be a power with influence in the Muslim and the wider world, equal to the nuclear-armed United States and, as an oil-producing country, superior to Israel.</p>
<p>From that angle, the Administration’s belief that a mild easing of sanctions (a <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/11/14/iran_sanctions_john_kerry_is_promising_unbelievably_small_things_again.html">&#8220;tiny portion,&#8221;</a> according to Secretary of State Kerry, and “<a href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-value-of-the-proposed-sanctions-relief-at-geneva/#sthash.jdKAkClv.dpuf">very limited, temporary and reversible</a>” according to President Obama) would induce Iran to begin the process of de-nuclearizing or denuding itself under the watchful, powerful, and punitive eye of the despised West was farfetched at best.  Even large-scale bribery (the <a href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/the-value-of-the-proposed-sanctions-relief-at-geneva/">$20 billion or so</a> FDD’s Mark Dubowitz estimated might become available to the regime) would be unlikely to move the Iranians from their national nuclear project.</p>
<p>That was the most important understanding in the development of international sanctions. Sanctions were NOT designed to force Iran choose between nuclear progress and “mutual respect” with the West.  Sanctions, rather, were designed to force Iran to negotiate with itself.  To choose between two of its own national goals: the nuclear project and economic stability.  But at the very moment sanctions began to work and Iran began the internal conversation, the White House decided to buy the camel Iran was selling – temporary, reversible paper promises &#8211; for which the West would pay with eased sanctions and at least tacit acceptance of Iran’s “right” to uranium enrichment.</p>
<p>France (for itself, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. Congress) saved the Western position for a week.  Unable to acknowledge the fundamental American shift, and having pulled France back into the fold, the administration continues to blame Israel and, if reports are true, has warned it  not to consider <a href="http://kleinonline.wnd.com/2013/11/24/officals-israelis-in-secret-trip-to-inspect-saudi-bases-could-be-used-as-staging-ground-for-strikes-against-iran/">military action against Iran</a> without American “permission.”  Somehow, the U.S. has become the guarantor of the security of Iran’s nuclear program, and thus the guarantor of the Islamic Republic’s rotten regime.</p>
<p>The implications are staggering.  Iran has supported militias that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/07/07/iraq.militias.iran.support/">killed American troops</a> in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It traffics in weapons and missile technology with North Korea, some of which it then supplies along with troops to the gruesomely murderous regime of Bashar Assad and the equally murderous Hezbollah.  Iran ships weapons through Somalia and across North Africa to jihadists in Sinai and Hamas in Gaza.  It stirs trouble for American allies in the Gulf and threatens Israel with genocide on a regular basis.</p>
<p>The election of the so-called “moderate” Hasan Rouhani made no difference at all to the Iranian people.  In the first 100 days of his administration, <a href="http://disquietreservations.blogspot.com/2013/11/executions-of-political-prisoners-on.html">207 people have been executed</a>, some publicly.  Iranian-American pastor <a href="http://www.charismanews.com/us/41831-pastor-saeed-remains-alive-but-in-danger-in-deadly-iranian-prison">Saeed Abedani</a>, in prison for over a year for practicing Christianity, was been moved to the “violent criminal” ward and denied medical treatment for injuries suffered in prison. Veteran Iran-watcher Michael Ledeen has chronicled the regime’s <a href="http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2013/10/27/those-new-gentler-iranians-are-busy-hanging-stoning-and-biting-their-people/">domestic violence</a>, including the stoning deaths of four women and mass arrests of Kurds in Tehran in October.</p>
<p>Putting international priority on Iran’s nuclear program might have been reasonable given the stakes, but Iran presents a basket of issues for the West, the Sunni Muslim world and Russia. The Administration’s willingness to undermine the allied position on the nuclear program has left no room to maneuver on the other points – if it wants to.</p>
<p><i>Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center.</i></p>
<p><b>Freedom Center pamphlets now available on Kindle: </b><a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref%3dnb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Ddigital-text&amp;field-keywords=david+horowitz&amp;rh=n:133140011%2ck:david+horowitz&amp;ajr=0#/ref=sr_st?keywords=david+horowitz&amp;qid=1316459840&amp;rh=n:133140011%2ck:david+horowitz&amp;sort=daterank" target="_blank"><b>Click here</b></a><b>.<br />
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		<title>Hamas and the “Peace Process”</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/shoshana-bryen/hamas-and-the-peace-process/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=hamas-and-the-peace-process</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Nov 2013 04:02:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Shoshana Bryen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FrontPage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[arafat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kerry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peace]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tunnel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=209269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When peace means terror. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/hamas.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-209278" alt="hamas" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/hamas.jpg" width="270" height="179" /></a>The Palestinians have thrown a monkey wrench in the works again &#8211;  as they have a pattern of doing every time the “peace process” is supposed to be close to “solving” the problem.</p>
<p>Despite the secrecy surrounding the current U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry-sponsored talks, a Palestinian <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinians-make-stiff-land-demands-for-peace/">leak</a> Sunday put positions on the table: a 1.9% land swap; no Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley and no Israeli presence at all in East Jerusalem; control over water sources and resources; control of the Dead Sea and border crossings; the right to sign agreements with other states (Iran?); release of all Palestinian prisoners; and the right of Palestinian refugees and their descendants to choose to live in Israel or the Palestinian territories.</p>
<p>The Palestinians know that all of these will be unacceptable to Israel. The process on the Palestinian side appears to be a fraud, designed to produce failure because the Palestinian Authority (PA) cannot afford a success with Israel in the absence of an agreement with Hamas.  The PA fears exposing the fact that it does not have functional control of the Gaza Strip and 1.66 million people it claims to represent. And not only does it NOT represent them, the government of Gaza – Hamas – explicitly rejects rule by the PA.</p>
<p>The minimal Palestinian position has always included the assumption that “Palestine” would consist of ALL the territories acquired by Israel in 1967; the West Bank AND Gaza Strip (the 1.9% swap would not change that). But while the UN may treat the Palestinian Authority and Abu Mazen as the political representative of Gaza (as the General Assembly did when it voted to treat “Palestine” as a State), it is not. Furthermore, the term of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expired several years ago; as there have been no new elections, he does not have any legal authority to negotiate or make decisions on behalf of the the Palestinian Authority in the first place.  Further, as the loser in the brutal and bloody civil war of 2007, Abbas’s Fatah is <i>non grata</i> in Gaza, and Hamas officials have insisted they <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-says-it-wont-be-bound-by-peace-negotiations/">would not be bound</a> by any agreement reached with Israel.</p>
<p>The question is how to deal with that.</p>
<p>Any actual “peace agreement” would expose Abbas as the naked Emperor in Gaza. Perhaps Fatah plans simply to ignore its geographic and political limitations. Perhaps Abbas assumes Israel will continue to defend itself from Hamas, and thus “Palestine” can complain about Israeli military activity without having to exercise sovereign control of its borders.  Perhaps it is banking on the talks failing; perhaps it is ensuring that the talks fail. At worst, the U.S. would be unhappy but not surprised; at best, Israel would be blamed.</p>
<p>The United States, for its part, has evidently been choosing to ignore open warfare by Hamas against Israel, and insisting instead that the “solution” to the Palestinian problem will be found between Ramallah and Jerusalem (or Tel Aviv, as the administration insists).  This view, if nothing else, explains a senior American official claiming to be &#8220;shocked” by the latest discovery of <a href="http://freebeacon.com/hamas-leaders-admit-to-building-tunnels-to-kidnap-israelis/">Hamas tunnels burrowed into Israel</a>.</p>
<p>Why would the United States be shocked by the discovery of a mile-long tunnel 60 feet underground, running 1,500 feet into Israel, and complete with lights and a trolley track?  Did the U.S not think Hamas would find a military use for the concrete building slabs Israel was harangued into providing for “civilian” housing in Gaza by Western “humanitarian” organizations? Does the U.S. believe that Hamas only built tunnels to import cigarettes and cooking oil to offset the Israel-Egypt blockade? Surely the State Department knows that even at the height of the Hamas rocket war, Israel did not permit hunger in Gaza, and that the blockade by Israel off the coast of Gaza existed to protect itself against arms smuggling. The American government could not have thought Hamas had given up trying to capture the next Gilad Shalit for murder or mayhem; Hamas <a href="http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4367254,00.html">publicly announced its intention</a> to kidnap more Israeli soldiers, and the number of attempts rose in 2013.  The ransom Israel paid for Shalit only made the next IDF soldier an even more tempting target.</p>
<p>Ignoring the war is foolish: it continues apace. In the past two weeks, aside from the tunnels (plural, a second <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-finds-blows-up-explosives-laden-tunnel-from-gaza/">explosives-laden tunnel</a> was found less than a week after the first):</p>
<ul>
<li>The IDF found a <a href="http://www.israelifrontline.com/2013/10/idf-finds-large-bomb-on-gaza-fence.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IsraeliFrontline+%28ISRAELI+FRONTLINE%29">powerful bomb</a> planted near the fence separating Gaza from southern Israel.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The latest <a href="http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/7470.htm">Hamas cartoon</a> on al Aqsa TV lauds the Izz Adin Al-Qasam Brigades. The hero tells worshipful children, “Thousands of young fighters are prepared to be martyred for the sake of Allah, until this land is liberated. The Al-Qassam army is well-organized, new young recruits join and weapons are developed… Al-Qassam is a powerful tenacious rival, whose men are heroes, educated in the mosques and possessing the spirit of Jihad… The courageous Al-Qassam Brigades are the knights defending the homeland.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The IDF announced that Fatah uncovered a Hamas <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-forces-uncover-hamas-attack-drone-plot/">drone factory</a> on the West Bank, intending to launch weaponized drones into Israel.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted one of two rockets <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/10/israel-rockets-from-gaza-intercepted-2013102875346647601.html">launched from Gaza at Ashkelon</a> (the other fell into the sea).</li>
</ul>
<p>To believe Hamas attacks, and preparation for attacks, on Israel can be curtailed by the political process misunderstands the nature of the so-called “Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”</p>
<p>As an ideological matter, both Fatah and Hamas seek to reverse what they believe was an historic mistake by the United Nations in 1947 when it accepted Israel into the family of independent nations. Both continue to seek ways to hurt, harass, diminish, and delegitimize Israel, and both teach their children that the conflict will never end with a Jewish State of Israel living peacefully in the Middle East. Both Fatah and Hamas remain committed to “<a href="http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Palestinians-have-not-abandoned-armed-struggle">armed resistance</a>,” although Abu Mazen uses diplomacy as well, promising to use the Palestinians’ new UN status to push for <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-anniversary-celebrations-fatah-torn-between-diplomacy-and-armed-struggle/">punitive measures</a> against Israel.</p>
<p>As a practical matter, both sides of the bifurcated Palestinian government have sought to cultivate dependency and remove opportunities for legitimate Palestinian economic advancement. [Everything that follows in this paragraph and the next are the explanation: there was economic activity, then the intifada.] There was a time Gaza was open to Israel, and Palestinians <a href="http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/3239/palestinian-financial-crisis-looms">crossed the border regularly to work</a>.  There was an <a href="http://www.gazaairport.com/">airport</a> and a fully functional <a href="http://www.worldportsource.com/ports/PSE.php">port</a>. In mid-2000, 136,000 Palestinians were working inside Israel – 40% of all <a href="http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2003/0503aruri.html">employed Palestinians</a>. Another 5,000 worked in the joint Israeli/Arab run <a href="http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2010/03/ashton-in-gaza-when-experts-are.html">Erez Industrial Zone</a> in the Gaza Strip. Thousands more worked in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in Israeli-owned businesses.</p>
<p>Yasser Arafat’s so-called “second intifada,” beginning in late 2000, killed more than 1,000 Israelis, and changed Israel’s focus from economic advancement and integration with the Palestinians into “security first.” The Erez Industrial Zone was closed after Israelis were murdered there, and the Disengagement of 2005 ended Israel’s employment of Gaza Palestinians and any residual Israeli influence. The civil war in 2007 ended any residual Fatah influence, while Hamas continues to make political inroads in the West Bank (how did that drone factory get there?).</p>
<p>The Gaza Strip can neither be incorporated into the “peace process” nor ignored. The culture of violence and hatred engendered by Hamas married to political success if Fatah achieves Palestinian independence would be dangerous for Israel.  The Hamas-Fatah rift that a Fatah-Israel deal would expose would be more dangerous for Fatah.  Watch for more wrenches in the works.</p>
<p><em>Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC.</em></p>
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