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	<title>FrontPage Magazine &#187; IAEA</title>
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		<title>Believing Obama on Iran</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/caroline-glick/believing-obama-on-iran/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=believing-obama-on-iran</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 14 May 2014 04:50:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Caroline Glick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FrontPage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clapper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[negotiations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Netanyahu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Nations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=225456</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why Israeli anxieties are mounting.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Obama_Iran.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-225457" alt="Obama_Iran" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Obama_Iran-450x305.jpg" width="315" height="214" /></a>Originally published by the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Our-world-Believing-Obama-on-Iran-352173">Jerusalem Post</a>. </em></p>
<p>Brig. Gen. (ret.) Uzi Eilam is an octogenarian who served as the director general of Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission from 1976 until 1985.</p>
<p>Last Friday Eilam gave a head-scratching interview to Yediot Aharonot’s Ronen Bergman in which he claimed that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is a decade from completion. He said it is far from clear that the Iranians even want a nuclear arsenal. He accused Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu of cynically exaggerating the threat from Iran in order to strengthen himself politically.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Eilam’s interview was his absolute certainty in his judgment.</p>
<p>Eilam, who hasn’t had any inside knowledge of nuclear issues since 1985, would have us believe that he knows better than active duty Israeli intelligence chiefs and US intelligence directors about the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He even thinks he knows better than the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.</p>
<p>Israel assesses that Iran already has sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to produce five atomic bombs. As Netanyahu has said, the interim nuclear deal the US and its allies signed with Iran last November only delays Iran’s bomb making capacity by six weeks.</p>
<p>In January, James Clapper, the director of US national intelligence, agreed with Israel’s assessment. In testimony before the Senate’s Select Committee on Intelligence Clapper said that Iran is already a nuclear breakout state. In his words, “Tehran has made technical progress in a number of areas – including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors and ballistic missiles – from which it could draw if it decided to build missile- deliverable nuclear weapons.”</p>
<p>Clapper argued that this doesn’t matter because the US’s monitoring capabilities are so trustworthy and advanced that Iran wouldn’t be able to put nuclear weapons together without the US noticing.</p>
<p>Unfortunately there is no reason to believe Clapper is right. Indeed, Netanyahu said as much to US National Security Advisor Susan Rice when she repeated Clapper’s claim during her visit to Israel last week.</p>
<p>And the UN agrees with Netanyahu.</p>
<p>In two reports released in recent days, UN officials have stated that Iran has developed an advanced capacity to hide its importation of components of its nuclear program. According to a Reuters report, this includes hiding titanium tubs in steel pipes and using its petrochemical industry as a cover to obtain valves and other items for its heavy-water nuclear reactor.</p>
<p>According to an AP report, the IAEA is also concerned because Iran is not cooperating with the watchdog group in revealing information about possible military applications of its nuclear program, or allowing the IAEA unfettered access to all nuclear sites.</p>
<p>Iran’s lack of transparency puts paid to the US’s claim that it can monitor all of Iran’s activities. It is far from clear that the US is even aware of all of Iran’s nuclear sites. So even if the US is capable of perfectly monitoring the known sites, it cannot know what it doesn’t know, and so may very well be monitoring the wrong sites.</p>
<p>And yet, despite US’s acknowledgment that Iran already has breakout capacity, and despite the UN’s conclusion that the Iranians are cheating on their international commitments and bypassing sanctions through smuggling activities, Brig. Gen. Eilam, who left the nuclear business 28 years ago, feels comfortable accusing Netanyahu of deliberately misleading the public and the world community.</p>
<p>What gives? It is hard to escape the feeling that there may be a connection between Eilam’s unhinged broadside against Netanyahu and the US’s assault on the credibility of Israel’s nuclear warnings.</p>
<p>On Sunday Iran’s dictator Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visited a Revolutionary Guards Corps base. There he was shown what the IRGC claims is a reverse-engineered clone of an advanced US espionage drone that Iran captured in 2011. According to Fox News, after the RAQ-170 Sentinel drone landed in Iran in 2011, the Pentagon presented US President Barack Obama with three different plans to destroy or retrieve the drone.</p>
<p>Obama rejected all of them because “he didn’t want to do anything that could be perceived as an act of war.”</p>
<p>During the same visit, to the IRGC base on Sunday, Khamenei told the commanders to begin mass producing ballistic missiles to use against the US.</p>
<p>In his words, the Americans “expect us to limit our missile program while they constantly threaten Iran with military action. So this is a stupid, idiotic expectation.</p>
<p>The Revolutionary Guards should definitely carry out their program and not be satisfied with the present level. They should mass produce. This is a main duty of all military officials.”</p>
<p>In other words, on Sunday, a declared enemy of the US, that the director of national intelligence acknowledges already has the independent capability to produce nuclear weapons, humiliated and threatened the US.</p>
<p>At a minimum Iran’s capture of the US drone indicates that the US capacity to monitor Iran’s nuclear capabilities is vulnerable and imperfect.</p>
<p>As for the ballistic missiles, they should be of utmost concern to the Europeans and the Americans. Iran doesn’t need ballistic missiles to attack Israel with nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>It can use artillery, not to mention a human being playing the role of Enola Gay.</p>
<p>But rather than condemn Iranian espionage and aggression, over the past week, Obama administration officials have launched a full court press against Israel.</p>
<p>In back-to-back articles in Newsweek, unnamed US former intelligence officials and congressional staffers presented an utterly false and deeply malicious portrait of alleged Israeli spying on the US. The reports were presumptively targeting Israel’s attempts to end State Department discrimination against Israeli tourists in the US and allow Israel to join the US visa waiver program.</p>
<p>But it is hard to ignore the timing of the unbridled, untrue and hysterical allegations of “rampant” Israeli spying.</p>
<p>The stories were released in the lead-up to this week’s newest round of nuclear talks between the US, the other permanent members of the Security Council and Germany, and Iran. Those talks were billed as a diplomatic means of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal. Indeed, after Rice’s meeting with Netanyahu last week the White House released a statement claiming that “the US delegation reaffirmed our commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.”</p>
<p>But the terms of the deal that is being negotiated with Iran advance the opposite of its stated goal. The deal on the table will enable Iran to develop nuclear weapons, virtually unopposed, and allow Iran to develop delivery systems for its nuclear arsenal entirely unopposed.</p>
<p>Israeli officials have been outspoken in their opposition to the agreement and the terms the US and its partners are offering Iran. Over and over, Netanyahu and his colleagues warn that the terms will not prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>The White House knows what it is doing, and it wants to continue on course. Consequently, for the administration to sell a deal that enables Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, it needs to discredit Israel among sufficient swaths of the general public to enable Obama to move forward with Iran against Israel.</p>
<p>In this context, the administration’s willingness to turn a blind eye to Iran’s brazen threats and acts of contempt while sending out anonymous sources to castigate Israel as a US enemy whose actions are hostile and antithetical to the US makes sense.</p>
<p>The malevolent slander of Israel’s actions and intentions is of course only the opening act in this new administration campaign to discredit Israel ahead of a nuclear deal with Iran. Speaking to The Washington Free Beacon, former Bush administration deputy national security advisor Elliott Abrams said he believes the administration will frame the issue “saying that it’s this deal or war.”</p>
<p>He’s doubtlessly correct. After all that what the administration did in November when it signed the interim deal and when it forced the Senate to mothball its sanctions bill against Iran.</p>
<p>The truth is that the choice isn’t between war and an agreement. It is between doing something to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power, or doing nothing to prevent that from happening. The administration has opted to do nothing. Unfortunately for the world, the price for doing nothing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is exponentially higher – in the cost of lives that would otherwise be saved – than the price of doing something.</p>
<p>But hey, at least an 80-year-old who led Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission nearly 40 years ago is willing to take Obama at his word.</p>
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		<slash:comments>36</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Obama Allows Iran&#8217;s Arak Heavy Nuclear Reactor to Advance</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/dgreenfield/obama-allows-irans-arak-heavy-nuclear-reactor-to-advance/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=obama-allows-irans-arak-heavy-nuclear-reactor-to-advance</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/dgreenfield/obama-allows-irans-arak-heavy-nuclear-reactor-to-advance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Nov 2013 19:01:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Greenfield]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Point]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran nukes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[soft power]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=211919</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This reactor is suitable for making plutonium]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/kerry-scarf-ap-640x480.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-211920" alt="kerry-scarf-ap-640x480" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/kerry-scarf-ap-640x480-450x337.jpg" width="450" height="337" /></a></p>
<p>Iran&#8217;s race to the bomb has been slowed. That is why it&#8217;s announcing the purchase of ballistic missile parts from North Korea and that it is <a href="http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2013/11/us-okays-iran-continuing-to-build-arak.html">moving forward with the</a> construction <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/22/us-iran-nuclear-arak-idUSBRE9AL0HY20131122">of the Arak Heavy Water reactor</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The still uncompleted Arak heavy-water reactor, seen by the West as a potential source of nuclear bomb fuel, has emerged as a big stumbling block in Iran&#8217;s talks with six world powers on a deal to rein in its nuclear program.</p>
<p>Iran denies Western accusations that it is seeking the capability to make atomic bombs and says the research reactor near the town of Arak, some 250 km (155 miles) southwest of the capital Tehran, will produce only radio-isotopes for medicine.</p>
<p>But experts say this reactor type is suitable for making plutonium, thus providing an alternative pathway to manufacturing fissile material for the core of a nuclear weapon, in addition to Iran&#8217;s enrichment of uranium.</p></blockquote>
<p>Right. Medicines. Despite the non-deal with Iran, the Arak heavy water reactor is moving forward. <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-27/us-backs-iran-claim-that-some-work-ok-at-arak-site">With Obama&#8217;s approval</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The U.S. says Iran can undertake some construction work at a key nuclear facility as long as fuel isn&#8217;t produced and advances aren&#8217;t made on a planned heavy water reactor.</p>
<p>The White House said afterward Iran wouldn&#8217;t advance its &#8220;activities&#8221; at Arak or progress toward plutonium production. It spelled out several more constraints.</p></blockquote>
<p>So Obama Inc. has got this covered. Right?</p>
<blockquote><p>Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Wednesday while his country was honoring the deal, construction on building projects would continue.</p>
<p>State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki says she isn&#8217;t sure what work Zarif meant. She says road or building work might be allowable. But nuclear fuel production, reactor work, testing, control systems advances and other activities aren&#8217;t permissible.</p></blockquote>
<p>Jen Psaki, like her bosses John Kerry and Barack Obama, is famous for knowing nothing. But<a href="http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/131128/iaea-not-ready-verify-iran-nuclear-deal"> IAEA monitoring will surely</a> prevent Iran from doing anything impermissible.</p>
<blockquote><p>The UN nuclear watchdog said Thursday it was not yet ready to verify Iran&#8217;s compliance with the recent deal with world powers, as Tehran invited inspectors to the key Arak site.</p>
<p>&#8220;We need to study the agreement (struck in Geneva on Sunday) and we have to identify the ways in which the elements relevant to the IAEA be put into practice,&#8221; International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yuyika Amano said.</p>
<p>&#8220;It will take time because it is a quite complicated task and we would like to properly prepare and do the job properly&#8230;. I cannot tell when we will be ready,&#8221; he told reporters.</p></blockquote>
<p>Fortunately Iran doesn&#8217;t have that problem.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/yasaman.hashemi20130612071450917.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-211921" alt="yasaman.hashemi20130612071450917" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/yasaman.hashemi20130612071450917-450x252.jpg" width="450" height="252" /></a></p>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<title>Negotiating with a Fantasy of the Iranian Regime</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/davidhornik/world-powers-resume-%e2%80%9ctalks%e2%80%9d-charade-with-iran/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=world-powers-resume-%25e2%2580%259ctalks%25e2%2580%259d-charade-with-iran</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 04:47:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[P. David Hornik]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FrontPage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baghdad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear Weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[talks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=132929</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[...And playing willingly into Tehran’s hands.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Picture-13.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-132930" title="Picture-13" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Picture-13.gif" alt="" width="375" height="240" /></a>The Iranian regime with which the P5+1 countries launched their second round of nuclear talks on Wednesday in Baghdad is not the real Iranian regime. That is to say, the Western, Russian, and Chinese diplomats will—at best—be negotiating with a fantasy-projection of the Iranian regime, and Tehran’s negotiators will be all too compliant in playing the part assigned to them.</p>
<p>At worst, the P5+1 diplomats will actually be aware of the true nature of the Iranian regime, but will act out the script of “negotiating constructively” with it so as to further certain ancillary goals—like lowering oil prices, boosting political fortunes, and above all, forestalling a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.</p>
<p>This constructive, reasonable Iran, ready to strike a deal and essentially having the same aims as the P5+1 countries except for a few bridgeable areas of disagreement, cannot be the same Iran that just this week <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2012/05/20/iran-committed-to-full-annihilation-of-israel-says-top-iranian-military-commander/">called for</a> the “full annihilation of Israel,” that has taken a steady toll of <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/record-number-of-u-s-troops-killed-by-iranian-weapons-20110728">American lives in Iraq</a>, that <a href="http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8101301309">bragged</a> earlier this month of its navy’s ability to threaten New York City, that has been responsible for an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_and_state_terrorism">ongoing string of terrorist atrocities</a> for over three decades, and that continues to <a href="http://jcpa.org/article/ahmadinejad-abu-musa-irans-lengthening-shadow-gulf/">intimidate</a> its Persian Gulf neighbors with subversion and very real threats of conquest.</p>
<p>There is, indeed, a situation in which a regime like Iran’s would sue for reasonable terms and real compromise—if it were truly on the ropes. But, while the sanctions are taking an economic toll, not even the most determined optimists claim that Tehran is anywhere near teetering. Not while its nuclear program <a href="http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=271195">continues at full speed</a>, and while, as Israeli analyst Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael Segall <a href="http://jcpa.org/article/ahmadinejad-abu-musa-irans-lengthening-shadow-gulf/">notes</a>, it has been continuing a policy of strategic “buildup, defiance, and power projection” in the face of all Western blandishments.</p>
<p>IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano’s <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-deal-20120523,0,962424.story">claim</a> on Tuesday, then, about an imminent—but still-unsigned—deal with Iran allowing inspection of some of its nuclear sites was a kind of ominous prelude to the Baghdad talks. It was the IAEA whose report last November—confirming all of Israel’s warnings about Iran’s unceasing progress toward the bomb—seemed to create a more serious atmosphere regarding the threat. It was Amano himself who heightened the sense of crisis in March by <a href="http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=3399">warning</a> that Iran had tripled production of higher-grade enriched uranium.</p>
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		<slash:comments>156</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Iran Rope-A-Dopes the West Again</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/bruce-thornton/iran-rope-a-dopes-the-west-again/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=iran-rope-a-dopes-the-west-again</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/bruce-thornton/iran-rope-a-dopes-the-west-again/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 May 2012 04:51:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bruce Thornton]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FrontPage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[agreement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baghdad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IAEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear Weapons]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=132848</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[New "agreement" with the Islamic Republic a prelude to nuclear capability. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/amanojalili.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-132852" title="amanojalili" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/amanojalili.gif" alt="" width="375" height="253" /></a>Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, announced on Tuesday that Iran would agree “quite soon” to allow IAEA inspectors to search for any evidence that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program has been directed towards military applications. The IAEA has been particularly interested in the Parchin military complex, where it is suspected the Iranians have been testing triggering mechanisms for nuclear bombs. This announcement came a day before the start of talks in Baghdad between the Iranians and the “P5 + 1” powers (the permanent Security Council nations and Germany). These talks are aimed at reaching an “agreement on the framework of the beginning of a compromise”–– as the <em>New York Times </em>describes with a straight face this laughably minimalist goal–– which would limit Iran’s enrichment of uranium. The deal also arrives six weeks before European sanctions on Iranian oil imports kicks in on July 1.</p>
<p>The timing of this paltry “agreement” announced by the IAEA suggests that the Iranians are once again rope-a-doping the U.N. and the West, playing for time by exploiting both Obama’s fear of an Israeli attack before the elections, and the Europeans’ usual preference for using diplomatic words to avoid military deeds. Thus this latest “breakthrough” is nothing more than another Iranian tactic in its long-term strategy for acquiring nuclear weapons. As Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak responded to the announcement, “The Iranians appear to be trying to reach a technical deal that will create an appearance as if there is progress in the talks to remove some of the pressure ahead of the talks in Baghdad and to postpone an escalation in sanctions.” Indeed, using the talks to ease sanctions is clearly what the Iranians are up to. Parliament Chairman Ali Larijani ordered the West to “stop the shell game they have played on Iran,” since it would be “improper” for the P5+1 powers to negotiate while imposing tighter sanctions. The implication is that relaxing sanctions is a precondition for any agreement.</p>
<p>But even if the Iranians sign the deal with the IAEA, and even if some more definitive agreement is reached in Baghdad, the problem of a nuclear Iran will not be solved, but merely delayed. The <a href="http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron">history</a> of North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons suggests the playbook Iran is following. In 1994, North Korea signed an agreement that called for the North to shut down its plutonium-based Yongbyon nuclear reactor in exchange for help in building two nuclear reactors for producing electricity. Eight years later, the Koreans admitted to a U.S. delegation that all along it had been enriching uranium. The next year, the North withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and began the “six-nation” negotiations over its nuclear program. That gabfest masked the ongoing development of nuclear weapons, which Korea announced it possessed a year later. Subsequent years saw more promises of cooperation and action by the Koreans when food-aid or other economic help was needed, followed by further provocations and threats, followed in turn by more Western concessions, starting the cycle all over again. Meanwhile the North has continued testing and developing missiles, threatening its neighbors, and providing rogue regimes like Iran and Syria with nuclear technology and know-how.</p>
<p>Given the success of the North Koreans, the Iranians are following the same strategy for becoming a nuclear power, combining diplomatic engagement, threatening bluster, meaningless “agreements,” and duplicitous evasion in order to keep the West off balance. Thus it’s no coincidence that on the same day talks begin in Baghdad the Iranians are launching a satellite on a missile that could be adapted for delivering a nuclear warhead. Meanwhile as the diplomatic dance proceeds, the centrifuges are spinning and nuclear facilities are being buried deep underground, activities that will continue until it’s too late or too costly for the West to do anything about Iran’s nukes.</p>
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		<title>Nuclear Evidence Against Iran Mounts</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/arnold-ahlert/nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/arnold-ahlert/nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 04:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arnold Ahlert]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=132008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[More proof of nuclear program revealed, while time-buying talks kick off. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-132026" title="Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357.gif" alt="" width="375" height="249" /></a>What is likely the final diplomatic push prior to military intervention against Iran is off to a tense start. Yesterday, a five-hour kick-off to renewed negotiations <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-team-leave-iranian-mission-vienna-no-134708030.html">took place</a> between senior U.N. nuclear watchdogs and Iranians at the diplomatic mission in Vienna. There, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials reported that they <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gPqK1j0dpo7AgbukiLT3Y_52V4Jw?docId=bc0f9f17a6ca4193858f71dc7cf60481">believe</a> a site at the Islamic Republic&#8217;s Parchin military complex was used to test components of nuclear weapons capability, directly undercutting Tehran&#8217;s oft-stated claim that the country is developing such capability strictly for &#8220;peaceful&#8221; purposes.</p>
<p>The Parchin complex came into focus when the Associated Press (AP) publicized a drawing from a country keeping track of Iran&#8217;s nuclear program. It depicted a containment chamber that is used to test multipoint explosives of the type used to set off a nuclear charge. The official who shared the computer-generated drawing with AP says it is based on information from an informant inside the Parchin complex, and that going into further detail would endanger the informant&#8217;s life. The official also <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57433497/iaea-iran-begin-new-nuke-talks/">demanded</a> that he and his country remain anonymous in exchange for sharing secret intelligence information.</p>
<p>Olli Heinonen, the former senior official in charge of the Iran file prior to his departure from the IAEA last year, says the drawing is &#8220;very similar&#8221; to a photo he has seen and identifies as that of the Iranian chamber. He further noted that even the colors of the two images match. His contention was buttressed by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack, who said intelligence agencies are familiar with the drawing as well.</p>
<p>This follows two earlier references to the structure. The first was a November 8 <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-14/iran-s-parchin-site-may-top-un-inspectors-meeting-agenda.html">report</a> by the IAEA describing &#8220;a large explosives containment vessel&#8221; for experiments on triggering a nuclear explosion, one for which they had satellite images &#8220;consistent with this information.&#8221; The second was from IAEA chief Yukiya Amano, who said his agency had &#8220;credible information that indicates that Iran engaged in activities relevant to the development of nuclear explosive devices&#8221; at the site.</p>
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		<title>Turkey&#8217;s Siren Song on Iran</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/kenneth-r-timmerman/turkeys-siren-song-on-iran/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=turkeys-siren-song-on-iran</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Feb 2012 04:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth R. Timmerman]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=122220</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why the US should reject renewed calls for sham negotiations with the Islamic Republic. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Iran-Turkey-Diplomacy-thumb-470x318-2214.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-122235" title="Iran-Turkey-Diplomacy-thumb-470x318-2214" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Iran-Turkey-Diplomacy-thumb-470x318-2214.gif" alt="" width="375" height="254" /></a></p>
<p>Turkey’s foreign minister came to Washington on Friday, trying to push another fake “peace in our time” deal with Iran. Given the Obama administration’s track record with Iran to date, they may take it – with disastrous consequences.</p>
<p>Ahmed Davotoglu hectored members of Congress and activists who have been pushing for tough measures on the Iranian regime, arguing that a spoonful of sugar was all that was needed to get Iran to “cut a deal on limits to its nuclear program.”</p>
<p>“The deal is clear. It could be resolved in a few days,” Davotoglu said. The problem was “mutual distrust,” made worse by U.S. sanctions. “What happened [as a result of sanctions]? Iran produced more” enriched uranium, he <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/turkish-diplomat-iran-is-ready-to-cut-a-deal/2012/02/10/gIQANA164Q_story.html">argued</a>.</p>
<p>We have heard this siren song many times before. In 2003, when the International Atomic Energy Agency woke up to the fact that Iran had been lying to IAEA inspectors for the previous 18 years about its secret nuclear weapons-related program, the same advocates of talks with Tehran argued that everything could be resolved “in a few days.”</p>
<p>Then IAEA secretary general, the Egyptian Mohamed Elbaradei, flew to Tehran in February 2003 to meet with Iran’s then “moderate” president, mullah Mohammad Khatami. Instead of a few days, talks dragged on for two years, during which time the Iranian regime completed construction on key facilities needed for its weapons program.</p>
<p>Are our memories so short that we have forgotten this charade? Iran’s top nuclear negotiator was criticized by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during the 2005 presidential elections in Iran for having “gone soft” and “caving in to imperialist powers” by signing an agreement with the IAEA that theoretically opened Iran’s nuclear facilities to inspections.</p>
<p>But Ahmadinejad hadn’t read the memo – at least, not yet. The former negotiator, Hossein Musavian, revealed the truth in a television interview that should have put a halt to any future attempts to negotiate with Tehran.</p>
<p>”Thanks to our dealings with Europe, even when we got a 50-day ultimatum, we managed to continue the work for two years,” Musavian <a href="http://kentimmerman.com/news/2005_11-04wt.htm">said</a> of the 2003 deal that was eventually struck. “Today, we are in a position of power.&#8221; The negotiations with Europe and the IAEA had been a ploy to “buy time” so Iran could complete work on its enrichment facilities, he added.</p>
<p>Every time the U.S. or the Europeans or the P5+1 (the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) engage in “negotiations” with Tehran, the Iranian regime feigns to make concessions, then enriches away.</p>
<p>That is precisely what is going on today. Except that today, Iran is so close to the bomb that the slightest mistake will be deadly.</p>
<p>Thanks to the IAEA inspections, we now know that the Islamic Republic has enough enriched uranium to make four nuclear warheads. Much of this uranium has been enriched to twenty percent. Once uranium is enriched to 20%, Iran can complete the process to reach weapons-grade fuel in just a few weeks. That means Iran can “break out” of any agreement and make the fuel for nuclear weapons between two inspection visits by the IAEA, making it extremely difficult to detect – until too late.</p>
<p>We also know that Iran has developed a nuclear warhead with aid from Pakistani nuclear black market genius, A.Q. Khan, and has extensively tested all of its non-nuclear <a href="http://kentimmerman.com/news/2011_06_02-iaea-iran-cold-test.htm">components</a> to validate the design.</p>
<p>In November, thanks to a mysterious explosion at a missile research center outside of Iran, we learned that Iran has been working hard to develop a new <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/30/the-shadow-war-against-iran/">ICBM</a> with a range of 10,000 miles. While the design parameters of that missile are not well known, it is clear that the Iranian regime is developing this missile in order to target the United States.</p>
<p>The man who designed that new missile, who was killed in the blast, left behind instructions that the epitaph on his tomb should <a href="http://iran-times.com/english/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=3088:my-epitaph&amp;catid=110:tam-left&amp;Itemid=396">read</a>: “Write on my tombstone: This is the grave of the one who wanted to annihilate Israel.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Peace in Our Time with Iran</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2011/kenneth-r-timmerman/peace-in-our-time-with-iran/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=peace-in-our-time-with-iran</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2011 04:49:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenneth R. Timmerman]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=109399</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Obama wants us to believe he has tamed the Mullahs' nukes.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Ahmadinejad1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-109403" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Ahmadinejad1.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="566" /></a></p>
<p>Now we can all rest assured. Iran’s nuclear weapons program has “stumbled badly” and is “beset by poorly performing equipment, shortages of parts and other woes,” <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/irans-nuclear-program-suffering-new-setbacks-diplomats-and-experts-say/2011/10/17/gIQAByndsL_story.html">the Washington Post proclaimed</a> on Tuesday.</p>
<p>An alleged joint U.S.-Israeli cyber attack known as Stuxnet and other problems have taken “a mounting toll” on Iran’s nuclear centrifuge program that could “hurt Iran’s ability to break out quickly” into the ranks of the world’s nuclear powers,” the Post concluded.</p>
<p>In other words, it’s “peace in our time” when it comes to Iran. Obama’s policy of pressure and incentives (the old “carrots and sticks” approach) is working. We can all go home, pop open a good bottle, and relax.</p>
<p>In case you were wondering about his “administration” sources, the author of this good news story, Joby Warrick, jetted off to Libya with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as his story appeared on the front page of Post’s printed edition on Tuesday. Pravda has spoken.</p>
<p>To give his fairy tale the “audacity of hope,” Warrick cited two just-released reports by David Albright, who briefly worked as an on-site inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).</p>
<p>Citing fragmentary evidence gathered by IAEA inspectors in Iran, Albright <a href="http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/test1/">extrapolated graphs</a> for the production of low-enriched uranium (LEU) at Iran’s primary enrichment plant at Natanz, which many analysts believe was hit by the Stuxnet virus in the fall of 2009.</p>
<p>While overall production of LEU appeared to have remained stable, there appears to have been an abrupt drop over the summer. Albright attributes this to problems Iran is having with acquiring centrifuge production materials, and to the lingering impact of Stuxnet. “Without question, they have been set back,” he told the Post.</p>
<p>But at the same time, the IAEA data shows that Iran has actually <em>increased significantly</em> the number of centrifuges that are actively spinning. So if their setbacks are temporary, they quite feasibly could dramatically increase their production in the very near future. That is just the opposite of what the Washington Post wants you to believe.</p>
<p>Albright has a history of downplaying the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, and tried to get Rep. Sylvester Reyes (D, Tx) to call back a report by the Republican staff of the House intelligence committee in 2007 once he took over as committee chairman.</p>
<p>The report warned that the IAEA and the U.S. intelligence community were downplaying the seriousness of Iran’s nuclear weapons efforts, in particular, its successful procurement of centrifuge gear from Pakistani nuclear weapons guru A. Q. Khan, as I <a href="http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=24778">described on this website</a> at the time.</p>
<p>The HPSCI report criticized then IAEA Secretary General Mohamad ElBaradei for firing chief inspector Christophe Charlier, a U.S. nuclear weapons expert, for raising concerns about Iranian deception. Albright defended ElBaradei for firing the Charlier and <a href="http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/reportintelcommittee.pdf">called on HPSCI to recall</a> the report.</p>
<p>In a parallel report, released on Monday, Albright claimed that Iran appears to have abandoned using imported maraging steel to make the bellows of its new, more efficient uranium enrichment centrifuge design. Instead, they are using carbon fiber, a material Iran claims to be manufacturing locally.</p>
<p>There are several possible explanations for the shift. Albright says the most likely is that U.S. and international “sanctions may have forced Iran into choosing a less desirable technical centrifuge design.”</p>
<p>In fact, according to design information Iran provided the IAEA, Iran always intended to use carbon fiber for the bellows and rotors of its newer, more efficient IR-2 centrifuges, and is not resorting to a cheap substitute because of sanctions.</p>
<p>A fellow left-leaning analyst writing the <a href="http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1388/bellows-bearings-and-rotors">“arms control wonk” website</a> pointed out four years ago that Iran’s IR-2 (also known as P-2) centrifuges would be using carbon fiber, not maraging steel.</p>
<p>Despite this evidence, Albright concluded, “Constraints on Iran’s advanced centrifuge program have resulted directly from the effectiveness of targeted sanctions against critical goods necessary for the manufacture of centrifuge components.” That certainly warranted a front-page story in Tuesday’s Washington Post, since it gave the key to the “Peace in Our Time” theme that ran throughout.</p>
<p>But Warrick went even further by tying the apparent (and I believe, unsubstantiated) setbacks in Iran’s nuclear programs to the <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/13/if-only-they-had-picked-the-right-mexican-why-i-think-the-iran-saudi-terror-case-is-for-real/">apparent stumble-bunnie plot</a> to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, DC.</p>
<p>‘“We’re used to seeing them do bad things, but this plot was so bizarre, it could be a sign of desperation, a reflection of the fact that they’re feeling under siege,” said [an Obama administration] official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so he could discuss the matter candidly,” Warrick reported.</p>
<p>In other words, this attempted act of terror was not an act of war; it was the act of a desperate man that can be safely ignored.</p>
<p>To further enhance the impression that we have nothing to worry about, Warrick then hauled out a real whopper:</p>
<p>“U.S. officials have said that the alleged assassination plot originated from elements within Iran’s elite Quds Force, a covert paramilitary group. But <em>it is not clear whether the nation’s top leaders knew about or approved the plan</em>,” he wrote (emphasis mine).</p>
<p>Now the indictment states clearly that Gen. Qassem Suleymani, the head of the Quds Force, <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/13/if-only-they-had-picked-the-right-mexican-why-i-think-the-iran-saudi-terror-case-is-for-real/">approved the plot.</a> The Quds Force is the overseas expeditionary wing of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, the IRGC, and takes its orders directly from Supreme leader ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Gen. Suleymani is a close confidant of Khamenei. What more “top” leader could possible have approved such a plot?</p>
<p>The Obama White House believes that Khamenei feels trapped, and they are trying to give him some wiggle room. They argue that he is fighting for his political life against Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani, both of whom would like to unseat him, and that he doesn’t have a direct line to Washington so he can arrange a Kumbaya moment with our president.</p>
<p>So what we are getting is excuses for the Iranian regime’s murderous impulses. Next perhaps will be, “the devil made him do it.”</p>
<p>The IAEA has already told us that Iran has <a href="http://kentimmerman.com/news/2011_06_02-iaea-iran-cold-test.htm">cold-tested the components of a workable nuclear weapons design</a>. Forget this nonsense about some illusory “setback” to their program. All clandestine nuclear weapons programs, including our own in the 1940s, have had their setbacks. Our biggest worry should be the upcoming nuclear weapons test Iran is planning to conduct with North Korea, especially if they focus on a smaller yield but potent EMP warhead.</p>
<p>Peace in our time? Sure, we’ve seen that film before, and we ought to know how it ends.</p>
<p>Stay tuned.</p>
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		<title>Iran&#8217;s Defiance &#8211; by Stephen Brown</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2009/stephenbrown/irans-defiance-by-stephen-brown/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=irans-defiance-by-stephen-brown</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stephen Brown]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=39688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tehran approves ten new uranium enrichment sites, ignores world condemnation.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em> </em></p>
<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-39691" title="defiance" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/defiance.jpg" alt="defiance" width="450" height="338" /></p>
<p>The decade-long attempt to  prevent Iran from acquiring  nuclear weapons may have entered the final round on Sunday when  Iran announced to the  world it intended to build ten new uranium enrichment sites.</p>
<p>“This is really a statement of defiance,” a former senior  Israeli atomic official told <em>The Wall  Street Journal</em>, “telling the world we are going to go ahead with our nuclear  program.”</p>
<p>The Iranian government’s  statement came only two days after the world’s major powers condemned  Iran’s nuclear program,  which, despite Iranian denials, is believed to be producing nuclear weapons.  China and  Russia joined the  United  States,  France,  Britain and  Germany to support an <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.iaea.org/About/index.html" target="_blank">International Atomic Energy  Agency</a> (IAEA) resolution ordering  Iran to stop  construction on the uranium enrichment plant near  Qom, a secret facility  whose existence President Obama revealed last September.</p>
<p>Due to the international criticism, Iranians are now  threatening to pull out of the <a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty" target="_blank">Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty</a> and reduce cooperation with the IAEA, the U.N.’s nuclear  watchdog. North  Korea is the only other country  ever to have pulled out of the treaty.</p>
<p>According to news reports, the Iranian decision to thumb  their nose at the U.N. and world opinion and construct new nuclear fuel  refinement facilities was made Sunday evening at a cabinet meeting chaired by  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad. The Iranians will start work on five of  the new sites within two months and at an unspecified future time on the  remaining five.</p>
<p>It is believed the reason for  the extra facilities is to allow Iran to build more  nuclear bombs. One military analyst says U.N. weapons inspectors and the U.S.  Department of Defense are of the opinion  Iran currently has  enough enriched fuel for one nuclear weapon.  Iran would like to have  several more in order to present itself as a “credible threat.”</p>
<p>The Iranian announcement  signals a defeat for President Obama’s ‘soft’ approach towards the Islamic  Republic’s leadership. In an interview with Dubai-based Al-Arabiya satellite  television network last January, Obama said  Iran’s leaders would  find the extended hand of diplomacy if they “unclenched” their  fists.</p>
<p>“As I said in my inauguration  speech, if countries like Iran are willing to  unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us,” Obama said.</p>
<p>But as early as March there  were already signs that Iran was in no mood to  unclench and drop the rock it was holding in the form of its nuclear weapons  program. That month, President Obama released a video, wishing the Iranians a  happy New Year, which, in Iran, falls on the  first day of spring. In return for his friendly overture, the American president  received from the Iranian government nothing but a demand for apologies for  America’s past  transgressions, real or imagined, against  Iran.</p>
<p>Sunday’s statement simply proves what most have suspected  all along: One cannot talk to the Iranian leaders and that they are simply  stringing out negotiations to complete their nuclear arms program. And the fact  the Iranians still celebrate the <a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis" target="_blank">1979 American embassy seizure</a> every November, a flagrant and criminal breach of  international law, shows they do not want to talk to the United States in  particular and are still willing to flout international norms.</p>
<p>Essentially,  Iran’s leaders are  religious fanatics who believe they have been chosen by God to establish a  Shiite hegemony over the majority Sunni Islamic world and then, hopefully, over  the whole planet. Of the world’s one billion Muslims, about 220 million are  minority Shiites, of whom the largest number, about 62 million, live in  Iran.  Pakistan contains the next  largest community of Shiites at 33 million, while  India is third with 30  million and Iraq fourth with 18  million.</p>
<p>Iran’s mullah regime  sees possessing nuclear weapons as instrumental to its plans for world  domination. Nuclear arms would also add significant muscle to  Iran’s security in a  part of the world where any sign of weakness or vulnerability could be  dangerous. Iranians have not forgotten how  Iraq took advantage of  Iran’s revolutionary  turmoil to launch a devastating <a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War" target="_blank">eight-year war</a> against it in 1980. And like Russia with its former  Eastern European satellites, Iran would also use  nuclear weapons to intimidate weaker neighbors.</p>
<p>The <em>Asia Times</em> columnist, Spengler (a  literary pseudonym), gives another reason why  Iran is not afraid to  seek confrontation over its nuclear weapons program. Iranian demographics have  sunk to West German levels of about 1.6 children per woman, which would make  waging a war in 20 years impossible. Iran currently has  enough young men to embark on a military adventure, whether internally for  nuclear weapons acquisition or externally against the Sunni world, while in  twenty years it won’t.</p>
<p>Iran’s  heavily-subsidized economy is also imploding. Like  Argentina with its <a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War" target="_blank">1982 Falkland Islands’  invasion</a> and Germany in 1939,  economically it is now or never for Iran to make a grab for  the ring. In a year’s time it may be too late, especially if oil prices drop  dramatically again. Besides, again like  Argentina, a military  adventure would probably cause those Iranian people actively opposed to the  regime to put aside their economic and political grievances and rally around the  country’s leadership in nationalistic pride.</p>
<p>But if  Iran wants a fight, it  will most likely get one. The Islamic regime’s Holocaust-denying leadership has  openly stated it wants to erase Israel from the map.  Facing such a naked threat to their country’s existence, one military  publication states the Israelis are now openly discussing using a missile attack  on Iran’s nuclear  facilities. While Israel’s <a rel="nofollow" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_%28missile%29" target="_blank">Jericho missiles</a> can  carry nuclear warheads, they also can be equipped with a conventional warhead.  An attack by Israeli warplanes is also a possibility.</p>
<p>The Israelis already have  American backing for such a strike if negotiations fail, as they appear to have.  American Vice-President Joe Biden said in an ABC interview last July  America would not prevent  an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear  facilities. And since the only other option would be a nuclear-armed  Iran, the Israelis will  now likely ensure this last round ends in a knockout.</p>
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		<title>Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis  &#124; STRATFOR</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:32:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MB Snow]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IAEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear Weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis
October 5, 2009 &#124; 2015 GMT
By George Friedman
The Iranian Nuclear Game
Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter.
In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had produced an unreleased report [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=sroblog.com&#38;blog=5470193&#38;post=16800&#38;subd=ladylibertytoday&#38;ref=&#38;feed=1" />]]></description>
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<h2><strong><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16802" title="geopol-hdr-349px" src="http://ladylibertytoday.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/geopol-hdr-349px.jpg?w=349&#038;h=146" alt="geopol-hdr-349px" width="349" height="146" />Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis</strong></h2>
<p>October 5, 2009 | 2015 GMT</p>
<p>By George Friedman</p>
<p>The Iranian Nuclear Game</p>
<p>Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter.</p>
<p>In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had produced an unreleased report saying that Iran was much more advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously. According to the report, Iran now has all the data needed to design a nuclear weapon. The New York Times article added that U.S. intelligence was re-examining the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which had stated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.</p>
<p>The second leak occurred in the British daily The Times, which reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.</p>
<p>The second revelation was directly tied to the first. There were many, including STRATFOR, who felt that Iran did not have the non-nuclear disciplines needed for rapid progress toward a nuclear device. Putting the two pieces together, the presence of Russian personnel in Iran would mean that the Iranians had obtained the needed expertise from the Russians. It would also mean that the Russians were not merely a factor in whether there would be effective sanctions but also in whether and when the Iranians would obtain a nuclear weapon.</p>
<p>via <a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091005_two_leaks_and_deepening_iran_crisis?utm_source=GWeeklyS&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=091005&amp;utm_content=GIRimage">Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis  | STRATFOR</a>.</p>
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