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	<title>FrontPage Magazine &#187; nuclear program</title>
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		<title>Obama, the Virtuoso Manager</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/caroline-glick/obama-the-virtuoso-manager/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=obama-the-virtuoso-manager</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2014 04:52:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Caroline Glick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=243445</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why criticism of the president's "incompetence" is wrong. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/obama_evil.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-243446" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/obama_evil.jpg" alt="obama_evil" width="307" height="265" /></a>Originally published by the <a href="http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Our-World-Obama-the-virtuoso-manager-379343">Jerusalem Post</a>. </em></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Since he assumed office nearly six years ago, US President Barack Obama has been dogged by allegations of managerial incompetence. Obama, his critics allege, had no managerial experience before he was elected. His lack of such experience, they claim, is reflected in what they see as his incompetent handling of the challenges of the presidency.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In everything from dealing with the Congress, to reining in radical ideologues at the IRS, to handling the chaos at the Mexican border, to putting together coordinated strategies for dealing with everything from Ebola to Islamic State (IS), Obama’s critics claim that he is out of his league. That he is incompetent.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">But if Israel’s experience with him is any guide, then his critics are the ones who are out to sea. Because at least in his handling of US relations with the Jewish state, Obama has exhibited a mastery of the tools of the executive branch unmatched by most of his predecessors.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Consider two stories reported in last Friday’s papers.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">First, in an article published in </span><em style="color: #000000;">The Jerusalem Post</em><span style="color: #000000;">, terrorism analyst and investigative reporter Steven Emerson revealed how the highest echelons of the administration blocked the FBI and the US Attorney’s Office from assisting Israel in finding the remains of IDF soldier Oron Shaul.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Shaul was one of seven soldiers from the Golani Infantry Brigade killed July 20 when Hamas terrorists fired a rocket at their armored personnel carrier in Gaza’s Shejeia neighborhood.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">As Emerson related, after stealing his remains, Hamas terrorists hacked into Shaul’s Facebook page and posted announcements that he was being held by Hamas.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Among other things it did to locate Shaul and ascertain whether or not he was still alive, the IDF formally requested that the FBI intervene with Facebook to get the IP address of the persons who posted on Oron’s page. If such information was acquired quickly, the IDF might be able to locate Oron, or at least find people with knowledge of his whereabouts.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Acting in accordance with standing practice, recognizing that time was of the essence, the FBI and the US Attorney’s Office began working on Israel’s request immediately. But just before the US Attorney secured a court order to Facebook requiring it to hand over the records, the FBI was told to end its efforts.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In an order that senior law enforcement officials told Emerson came from Attorney General Eric Holder’s office, the FBI was told that it needed to first sign an “MLAT,” a Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty with Israel, a procedure that would take weeks to complete, and is generally used in cases involving criminal prosecutions and other non-life threatening issues.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In other words, facing a bureaucracy acting independently, Holder – reportedly Obama’s most trusted cabinet secretary – acted quickly, decisively and effectively. And thanks to his intervention at the key moment, although Israel was able – after an exhaustive forensic investigation – to determine Oron’s death, today it is poised to begin negotiations with Hamas for the return of his body parts.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Then there was the unofficial arms embargo.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In August, </span><em style="color: #000000;">The Wall Street Journal</em><span style="color: #000000;"> reported that the White House and State Department had stopped the Pentagon at the last minute from responding favorably to an Israeli request for resupply of Hellfire precision air-to-surface missiles. The precision guided missiles were a key component of Israel’s air operations against missile launchers in Gaza. The missiles’ guidance systems allowed the air force to destroy the launchers while minimizing collateral damage.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In keeping with the standard decades-long practice, Israel requested the resupply through European Command, its military-to-military channel with the US.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">And in keeping with standard practice, the request was granted.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">But then the White House and State Department heard about the approved shipment and spun into action. As in the case of Oron’s Facebook page, they didn’t reject Israel’s request. They just added a level of bureaucracy to the handling of the request that made it impossible for Israel to receive assistance from the US government in real time.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">As State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf put it at the time, “We’re not holding anything. A hold indicates, technically, that you are not moving forward on making a decision about a transfer&#8230;. These requests are still moving forward; there’s just additional steps in the process now, and there’s been no policy decision made to not move forward with them&#8230;. They’re just going to take a little while longer.”</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">The Hellfire missiles, along with other ammunition Israel requested during the war, arrived in September – a month after the cease-fire went into effect.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">On Friday veteran military affairs reporter Amir Rappaport reported in Makor Rishon that the hold on the Hellfire missiles was only one aspect of the White House’s decision to stop arms shipments to Israel during the war. Shortly after Operation Protective Edge began, the administration stopped all contact with the Defense Ministry’s permanent procurement delegation in the US.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">According to Rappaport, for the first time since the 1982 war in Lebanon, “The expected airlift of US ammunition [to the IDF] never arrived at its point of departure.”</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">The difference between Obama’s actions during Operation Protective Edge and Ronald Reagan’s partial arms embargo against Israel 32 years ago is that Reagan made his action publicly. He argued his case before the public, and Congress.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Obama has done no such thing. As was the case with the FAA’s scandalous ban on flights to Ben-Gurion Airport during the war, Holder’s prevention of the FBI from helping Israel find Oron, and Obama’s arms embargo were justified as mere bureaucratic measures.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">As Harf claimed in relation to the embargo, there was no hostile policy behind any of the hostile policy moves. Obama and his senior advisors are simply sticklers for procedure. And since during the war Obama insisted that he supported Israel, policymakers and the public had a hard time opposing his actions.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">How can you oppose a hostile policy toward Israel that the administration insists doesn’t exist? Indeed, anyone who suggests otherwise runs the risk of being attacked as a conspiracy theorist or a firebrand.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">The same goes for Obama’s policy toward Iran. This week we learned that the administration has now offered Iran a nuclear deal in which the mullahs can keep half of their 10,000 active centrifuges spinning.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Together with Iran’s 10,000 currently inactive centrifuges which the US offer ignores, the actual US position is to allow Iran to have enough centrifuges to enable it to build nuclear bombs within a year, at most.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">In other words, the US policy toward Iran exposed by Obama’s nuclear offer is one that enables the most active state sponsor of terrorism to acquire nuclear weapons almost immediately.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">But Obama denies this is his policy. For six years he has very deftly managed Congressional opposition to his wooing of the Iranian regime by insisting that his policy is to reduce the Iranian nuclear threat and to prevent war.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Opposing his policy means opposing these goals.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Consistent polling data show that Obama’s policies of harming Israel and facilitating Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear arsenal are deeply unpopular. His successful advancement of both policies despite this deep-seated public opposition is a testament to his extraordinary skill.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">On the other hand, Obama’s virtuoso handling of the federal bureaucracy and Congress also reveal the Achilles heel of his policies. He conceals them because he cannot defend them.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">Obama’s inability to defend these policies means that politicians from both parties can forthrightly set out opposing policies without risking criticism or opposition from the administration.</span><br style="color: #000000;" /><br style="color: #000000;" /><span style="color: #000000;">How can Obama criticize a serious policy to support Israel when he claims that this is his goal? And how can he oppose a serious policy to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons when he says that he shares that goal? At least as far as Israel is concerned, Obama’s mastery of the federal bureaucracy is complete. It is not incompetence that guides his policy. It is malicious intent toward the US’s closest ally in the Middle East. And to defeat this policy, it is not necessary to prove incompetence that doesn’t exist. It is necessary to show that there are far better ways to achieve his declared aims of supporting Israel and blocking Iran’s nuclear weapons program.</span></p>
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		<title>Vienna Calling</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/frontpagemag-com/vienna-calling/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=vienna-calling</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/frontpagemag-com/vienna-calling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2014 04:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Frontpagemag.com]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=220823</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ami Horowitz exposes Iran's "good faith" negotiations over its nuclear program. ]]></description>
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<p><b>Freedom Center pamphlets now available on Kindle: </b><a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref%3dnb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Ddigital-text&amp;field-keywords=david+horowitz&amp;rh=n:133140011%2ck:david+horowitz&amp;ajr=0#/ref=sr_st?keywords=david+horowitz&amp;qid=1316459840&amp;rh=n:133140011%2ck:david+horowitz&amp;sort=daterank" target="_blank"><b>Click here</b></a><b>. </b></p>
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		<title>Nuclear Evidence Against Iran Mounts</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/arnold-ahlert/nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2012/arnold-ahlert/nuclear-evidence-against-iran-mounts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 04:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arnold Ahlert]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=132008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[More proof of nuclear program revealed, while time-buying talks kick off. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-132026" title="Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Mideast-Iran-Nuclear_Horo-635x357.gif" alt="" width="375" height="249" /></a>What is likely the final diplomatic push prior to military intervention against Iran is off to a tense start. Yesterday, a five-hour kick-off to renewed negotiations <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-team-leave-iranian-mission-vienna-no-134708030.html">took place</a> between senior U.N. nuclear watchdogs and Iranians at the diplomatic mission in Vienna. There, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials reported that they <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gPqK1j0dpo7AgbukiLT3Y_52V4Jw?docId=bc0f9f17a6ca4193858f71dc7cf60481">believe</a> a site at the Islamic Republic&#8217;s Parchin military complex was used to test components of nuclear weapons capability, directly undercutting Tehran&#8217;s oft-stated claim that the country is developing such capability strictly for &#8220;peaceful&#8221; purposes.</p>
<p>The Parchin complex came into focus when the Associated Press (AP) publicized a drawing from a country keeping track of Iran&#8217;s nuclear program. It depicted a containment chamber that is used to test multipoint explosives of the type used to set off a nuclear charge. The official who shared the computer-generated drawing with AP says it is based on information from an informant inside the Parchin complex, and that going into further detail would endanger the informant&#8217;s life. The official also <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57433497/iaea-iran-begin-new-nuke-talks/">demanded</a> that he and his country remain anonymous in exchange for sharing secret intelligence information.</p>
<p>Olli Heinonen, the former senior official in charge of the Iran file prior to his departure from the IAEA last year, says the drawing is &#8220;very similar&#8221; to a photo he has seen and identifies as that of the Iranian chamber. He further noted that even the colors of the two images match. His contention was buttressed by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack, who said intelligence agencies are familiar with the drawing as well.</p>
<p>This follows two earlier references to the structure. The first was a November 8 <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-14/iran-s-parchin-site-may-top-un-inspectors-meeting-agenda.html">report</a> by the IAEA describing &#8220;a large explosives containment vessel&#8221; for experiments on triggering a nuclear explosion, one for which they had satellite images &#8220;consistent with this information.&#8221; The second was from IAEA chief Yukiya Amano, who said his agency had &#8220;credible information that indicates that Iran engaged in activities relevant to the development of nuclear explosive devices&#8221; at the site.</p>
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		<title>Hillary Goes Weak-Kneed on Iran</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2010/dick-morris/hillary-goes-weak-kneed-on-iran/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=hillary-goes-weak-kneed-on-iran</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jan 2010 05:12:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dick Morris]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=46625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The impotence of sanctions not going for the jugular is obvious.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-46630" title="hillary-clinton-46_1201962c" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/hillary-clinton-46_1201962c.gif" alt="hillary-clinton-46_1201962c" width="450" height="282" /></p>
<p>A squishy, misguided, weak-kneed liberalism has emerged in Hillary Clinton&#8217;s comments about the kind of sanctions that would work best in halting Iran&#8217;s nuclear program. Rather than take the one step that would really be effective — cutting off the flow of refined gasoline to Iran — she instead insists that we need to target the Iranian leadership with sanctions.</p>
<p>Her husband wisely rejected the same kind of advice in deciding on the sanctions to impose on Serbia during the Bosnia war, opting for broad-based economic sanctions to deter aggression. The sanctions were incredibly effective, and the mere threat of their re-imposition in 1996 was enough to bring Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic to his knees.</p>
<p>But now Hillary says sanctions must target Iran&#8217;s Revolutionary Guard &#8220;without contributing to the suffering of the ordinary (Iranians), who deserve better than what they currently are receiving.&#8221;</p>
<p>But the impotence of sanctions that do not go for the jugular is obvious, and the abysmal record of targeted sanctions aimed at Iranian leaders is enough to discredit the entire process. However, sanctions can be effective — immediately — if they strike at a nation&#8217;s most vulnerable point.</p>
<p>The House of Representatives approved a resolution at the end of December that imposed sanctions against Iran, banning any company from doing business in the United States if it supplied oil products to Iran. Co-sponsored and pushed by Illinois Republican Rep. Mark Kirk (who deserves support in his bid for a Senate seat), the measure has real teeth and is now pending before the Senate.</p>
<p>Hillary&#8217;s comment about avoiding sanctions that &#8220;contribute to the suffering&#8221; of the people of Iran can only be interpreted as a push-back against the sanctions that have passed the House.</p>
<p>This kind of weakness, on which criminal regimes like Iran&#8217;s thrive, is just the kind of impotence that liberal governments display.</p>
<p>From Munich to today, leaders have found it difficult to wage war against those who threaten world peace or even to impose serious sanctions against them. The argument is always the same: It will hurt ordinary people.</p>
<p>Well, so will atomic bombs.</p>
<p>Unless we inflict enough damage on Iran to force it to stop its weapons program, we are leaving Israel exposed and vulnerable to almost certain destruction.</p>
<p>Iran, despite having the second-largest deposits of oil in the world, lacks refining capacity and must import 40 percent of its gasoline. The threat of a cutoff is the ultimate weapon, short of force, to be used in compelling Iran to abide by the resolutions of the international community and refrain from producing nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>Hillary&#8217;s comment can only have brought a sigh of relief to the lips of the Iranian mullahs. It sends the clear signal that the Obama administration lacks the toughness to impose real sanctions and its disapproval can be safely disregarded in Tehran.</p>
<p>If gasoline imports were curtailed, the &#8220;ordinary&#8221; Iranians would blame their own government. They know that Iran has been isolated from the world by its own government, and surveys show this cutoff rankles the population mightily. They are very worried about getting the cold shoulder from the rest of the world and worry about the consequences for their already blighted and fragile economy.</p>
<p>A gasoline shortage can only stoke the fires of rebellion so brilliantly flaring forth on Iranian streets and can only bolster the courage of those who brave gunfire and police clubs to express their demands for liberty.</p>
<p>Hillary: Don&#8217;t go squishy on us now!</p>
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		<title>Bomb kills Iran nuclear physicist tied to Mousavi &#8211; AP</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2010/jlaksin/bomb-kills-iran-nuclear-physicist-tied-to-mousavi-ap/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=bomb-kills-iran-nuclear-physicist-tied-to-mousavi-ap</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2010/jlaksin/bomb-kills-iran-nuclear-physicist-tied-to-mousavi-ap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:23:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jacob Laksin]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=45752</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TEHRAN, Iran – A nuclear physics professor who publicly backed Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi in the disputed June presidential election was killed Tuesday when a bomb-rigged motorcycle blew up outside his home. The blast, apparently set off by a remote trigger, left a puzzling mix of clues about why a 50-year-old researcher with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TEHRAN, Iran – A nuclear physics professor who publicly backed Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi in the disputed June presidential election was killed Tuesday when a bomb-rigged motorcycle blew up outside his home.</p>
<p>The blast, apparently set off by a remote trigger, left a puzzling mix of clues about why a 50-year-old researcher with no prominent political voice, no published work with military relevance and no declared links to Iran&#8217;s nuclear program would be targeted.</p>
<p>State media identified the victim as Masoud Ali Mohammadi, a professor at Tehran University, which has been at the center of recent protests by student opposition supporters. Before the election, pro-reform Web sites published Ali Mohammadi&#8217;s name among a list of 240 Tehran University teachers who supported Mousavi.</p>
<p>via <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100112/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran">Bomb kills Iran nuclear physicist tied to Mousavi &#8211; Yahoo! News</a>.</p>
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		<title>As standoff with Iran continues, U.S. prepares targeted sanctions &#8211; washingtonpost.com</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2009/jlaksin/as-standoff-with-iran-continues-u-s-prepares-targeted-sanctions-washingtonpost-com/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=as-standoff-with-iran-continues-u-s-prepares-targeted-sanctions-washingtonpost-com</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:41:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jacob Laksin]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=44216</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Obama administration is readying sanctions against discrete elements of the Iranian government, including those involved in the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters, marking a shift to a more aggressive U.S. posture toward the Islamic republic, U.S. officials said. Ten months after President Obama set a year-end deadline for Iran to engage with world powers [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Obama administration is readying sanctions against discrete elements of the Iranian government, including those involved in the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters, marking a shift to a more aggressive U.S. posture toward the Islamic republic, U.S. officials said.</p>
<p>Ten months after President Obama set a year-end deadline for Iran to engage with world powers on its nuclear program, the government in Tehran has failed to respond in kind, other than an abortive gesture in the fall.</p>
<p>Now, in what may be a difficult balancing act, officials say the administration wants to carefully target sanctions to avoid alienating the Iranian public &#8212; while keeping the door ajar to a resolution of the struggle over Iran&#8217;s nuclear program. The aim of any sanctions is to force the Tehran government to the negotiating table, rather than to punish it for either its apparent push to develop a nuclear weapon or its treatment of its people.</p>
<p>&#8220;We have never been attracted to the idea of trying to get the whole world to cordon off their economy,&#8221; said a senior U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. &#8220;We have to be deft at this, because it matters how the Iranian people interpret their isolation &#8212; whether they fault the regime or are fooled into thinking we are to blame.&#8221;</p>
<p>As a result, top officials show little apparent interest in legislation racing through Congress that would punish companies that sell refined petroleum to Iran. &#8220;Sanctions would not be an alternative to engagement,&#8221; another senior official said. &#8220;Our intention is to keep the door open.&#8221;</p>
<p>via <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/29/AR2009122903415.html?hpid=topnews">As standoff with Iran continues, U.S. prepares targeted sanctions &#8211; washingtonpost.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>Common Sense in Egypt and Saudi Arabia &#8211; by Daniel Pipes</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2009/daniel-pipes/common-sense-in-egypt-and-saudi-arabia-by-daniel-pipes/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=common-sense-in-egypt-and-saudi-arabia-by-daniel-pipes</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Dec 2009 05:10:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Pipes]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=42950</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some Egyptians and Saudis support the idea of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-42953" title="saudi" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/saudi.jpg" alt="saudi" width="450" height="300" /></p>
<p>Invited recently by the newly formed <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.meforum.org/2439/new-middle-east-polling-data" target="_blank">Pechter Middle East Polls</a> to ask three questions of 1,000 representative Egyptians and 1,000 urban Saudis, the Middle East Forum focused on Iran and Israel, the countries that most polarize the region. The <a rel="nofollow">results</a> are illuminating.</p>
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<td style="border: 1px solid black;"><img src="http://www.danielpipes.org/pics/new/large/1063.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="400" height="267" /></p>
<p style="font-size: smaller;">Some Egyptians and Saudis support the idea of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.</p>
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<p>(Technical note: Respondents were interviewed face to face in Arabic, in their own homes using a structured questionnaire during November by a credible, private, local commercial company with a solid track record. The margin of error is ±3 percent.)</p>
<p><em>Iran</em>: In today&#8217;s <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.danielpipes.org/6406/middle-eastern-cold-war" target="_blank">Middle Eastern cold war</a>, the Islamic Republic of Iran heads the revolutionary bloc, while the governments of Saudi Arabia and Egypt head the opposing status-quo bloc. How anxious are the Saudi and Egyptian populations of the Iranian nuclear weapons buildup? Pechter Polls asked two questions for MEF: &#8220;Assuming the Iranian government continues its nuclear enrichment program, would you support an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities?&#8221; and &#8220;How about an American strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities?&#8221;</p>
<p>In Egypt, 17 percent support an Israeli strike and 25 percent an American one. In Saudi Arabia, the figures, respectively, are 25 and 35 percent. Backing for an Israeli strike is surprisingly strong, for an American one, roughly as I expected. These numbers confirm a just-completed review of polling data by <a rel="nofollow" href="http://guest.cvent.com/events/mproc.aspx?m=38cc303a-767b-4bc8-b2cd-22ec4d885fcb&amp;t=http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID%3d3156&amp;s=PolicyWatch" target="_blank">David Pollock</a> of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who found &#8220;strikingly high levels of support—especially among Saudis—for tough action against Iran&#8217;s nuclear program.&#8221;</p>
<p>These figures suggest that between a sixth and a third of the population in the two most important status-quo countries is agreeable to an Israeli or American attack on the Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Although not a negligible minority, it is small enough to give the Egyptian or Saudi government pause about being associated with a strike on Iran. In particular, giving Israeli forces permission to traverse Saudi airspace would seem to be out of the question.</p>
<p><em>Israel</em>: The Forum asked, &#8220;Islam defines the state of Egypt/Saudi Arabia; under the right circumstances, would you accept a Jewish State of Israel?&#8221; In this case, 26 percent of Egyptians and 9 percent of Saudi subjects answered in the affirmative.</p>
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<td style="border: 1px solid black;"><img src="http://www.danielpipes.org/pics/new/large/1064.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="400" height="411" /></p>
<p style="font-size: smaller;">As this map showing Arabia in 1923 implies, the modern kingdom of Saudi Arabia contains several historically diverse regions. <em><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.danielpipes.org/pics/new/1064.jpg" target="_blank">Click for large version</a></em></p>
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<p>We posed this question to quantify the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict, a conflict not about the size of Israel, its resources, armaments, sovereignty over holy sites, or the number of its citizens living on the West Bank. Rather, it concerns the fundamental goal of Zionism, the creation of a state defined by Jewish identity.</p>
<p>To provide context: About <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.danielpipes.org/6244/palestinians-who-helped-create-israel" target="_blank">20 percent of Palestinians</a> since the 1920s have been willing to live with Israel in a state of harmony. The Egyptian response exceeds this slightly, the Saudi one comes in substantially below it. These results are in keeping with the more overtly religious nature of political life in Saudi Arabia than in Egypt. They confirm that the main source of anti-Zionism now is no longer nationalism but Islam.</p>
<p>Drilling down into the survey numbers shows little demographic variation (by age, education, etc.). One difference runs along gender lines, with Egyptian females accepting a Jewish state of Israel more than Egyptian males, but just the reverse in Saudi Arabic, something not readily explainable.</p>
<p>Geographic differences in Saudi Arabia are more consequential. Residents in the western part of the country, that closest to Israel, accept it as a Jewish state much more readily than do residents of the more distant central and eastern regions. Conversely, residents in the eastern and central regions are 50 percent more likely to endorse an American strike on nearby Iran than those of the more remote western region.</p>
<p>The Saudi west (Hijaz, Asir) remains true to its pedigree as the most liberal part of the country, whereas the east (Al-Ahsa) has the most Shi&#8217;ites and the most fear of Tehran. These regional variations point to the utility of seeing Saudi Arabia not as a homogenous whole but as an amalgam of regions with historically different identities, and perhaps making policy with these distinctions in mind.</p>
<p>In sum, these polling numbers point to a small but not trivial base of constructive views in countries largely hostile to the West and Israel. If this base has few prospects of driving policy anytime soon, it offers a kernel of common sense that, if given suitable attention, can be built upon to foster long-term improvements.</p>
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		<title>Iran’s Smoking Nuclear Gun &#8211; by Matt Gurney</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2009/matt-gurney/iran%e2%80%99s-smoking-nuclear-gun-by-matt-gurney/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=iran%25e2%2580%2599s-smoking-nuclear-gun-by-matt-gurney</link>
		<comments>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2009/matt-gurney/iran%e2%80%99s-smoking-nuclear-gun-by-matt-gurney/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gurney]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=42024</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is Tehran finally out of excuses?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-42026" title="Iran-leader" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Iran-leader.jpg" alt="Iran-leader" width="450" height="453" /></p>
<p>Could this finally be the smoking gun? In the United   Kingdom, <em>The Times</em> has revealed that it is in possession of an <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6955706.ece">Iranian document</a> discussing plans to construct and secretly test a “neutron trigger.” If the document is legitimate (there has been no official word yet confirming that, but it’s certainly being <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gOGgYiQomTS48gUI7WH5-yXI8tNA">taken seriously</a>) then Iran would finally be out of excuses. Their intention to build a nuclear weapon would be obvious to the whole world.</p>
<p>The Iranians, as it is now well known, have long denied that their nuclear program is for military purposes, improbably claiming that their petroleum-rich country desires a nuclear program to generate electricity. If the document obtained by <em>The Times</em> is to be believed, that will no longer be possible to claim. Neutron triggers, in this case the rare material uranium deuteride, serve only one possible function — triggering atomic explosions. They have no peaceful purposes, no other possible application. They are a key component of a nuclear bomb, and if Iran is developing a trigger, their intention is clear as can be.</p>
<p>The Iranian claims of peaceful intent have been straining credibility for some time, but the revelation earlier this year that they constructed a uranium processing facility under a mountain should have been enough to wake up the world to the threat posed by Tehran’s theocratic regime. If the purpose of their nuclear program is peaceful, as they’d have us all believe, then there is no reason that it could not have been open to international inspection, with the facilities constructed in plain view.</p>
<p>The only possible reason to go through the time and expense of building a facility under a mountain is to maximize its resilience to a possible air strike. And yet the Iranian regime still claimed innocence. Now that it has been credibly suggested that they are building a trigger for an atomic bomb, the regime is sticking to the same strategy of obfuscation — <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8414373.stm">denials</a> mixed with anti-Western rhetoric.</p>
<p>Their denials might work on some; there is no shortage of people around the world disinclined to believe anything the West says. But Iranian can hardly claim that as a victory: Even if millions of people around the world believe that the theocracy is innocent of the charges leveled against it by the West, proof that Iran is building a neutron trigger will have a powerful psychological impact on Western decision-makers.</p>
<p>This is especially true because the documents are believed to have originated in 2007, four years after a Bush administration <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2007/dec/09/opinion/op-powers9">National Intelligence Estimate</a> claimed that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” That NIE was a major setback to those calling for a hard-line to be taken against Iran’s program. If it can be proven that Iran was working on a neutron trigger four years after it was supposed to have suspended its weapons development, not only will it be yet another black eye for the American intelligence community, it will also be a crippling blow to those eager to downplay the risks posed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s nuclear ambition.</p>
<p>Whether or not it will result in any firm action is less clear. The brutal nature of the Iranian regime is well known, and their desire to destroy Israel, a liberal-democratic beacon of decency in an otherwise forsaken part of the world, is quite literally a matter of public record. Even so, many in the West — unfortunately including President Barack Obama — have chosen to act like Iran was a naughty child in need of a firm, but kindly, form of diplomatic discipline. Only the Israelis, whose history has taught them to take seriously threats of genocide, have consistently been willing to deal with Iran rationally.</p>
<p>The Iranians have deftly exploited Western naivety and bumbling diplomacy. Iran has repeatedly accepted a deal, trumpeted it to the world, and then reneged at the last minute, buying time for its scientists to complete a nuclear bomb. There are signs, however, that the international community is finally tiring of this transparent scheme, and if the Iranians are indeed developing an atomic trigger as the document suggests, not only will the anti-Tehran forces in the West be strengthen, they’ll also have a diplomatic advantage.</p>
<p>This is because the document, dated to 2007, lay out a four-year plan to develop the trigger. That leaves two years, at the very most, before Iran would have the technical capacity to complete a nuclear weapon. (It would also need enough enriched uranium to build one, but whether or not they would have enough within two years is unknown, and perhaps at present unknowable.) One would hope that a sense of urgency would help focus the minds of the Western diplomats who have thus far proven so ineffective at reining in Iran.</p>
<p>President Obama seems to have marginally hardened his tone on Iran, warning that if it cannot show concrete signs that it is cooperating with the international community by the end of the year, it would face consequences. Defense Secretary Robert Gates <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/12/world/middleeast/12gates.html">seems to agree</a>, having recently spoken of more stringent sanctions than Iran has yet had to deal with. Those calling for tough action will have their causes boosted if the document is proven credible. To be blunt, it would leave the left with no possible excuse to not take action.</p>
<p>But as must always be remembered, the most dramatic steps to be taken are not those being considered in the halls of foreign ministries all over the Western world. While diplomats from America and Europe debate how best to cope with Tehran and whether or not this document is valid, Israeli generals and defense experts are quietly waiting, wondering if the world will come to their rescue, knowing that each passing day makes a final, devastating confrontation more necessary. Those calling for diplomacy with the obviously untrustworthy Iranian regime are doing the cause of peace no favors.</p>
<p>For Israel, the clock is ticking. And this document can only make it tick louder.</p>
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