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	<title>FrontPage Magazine &#187; sick</title>
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		<title>If Ayatollah Khamenei Dies, What Next?</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/majid-rafizadeh/if-ayatollah-khamenei-dies-what-next/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=if-ayatollah-khamenei-dies-what-next</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Oct 2014 04:40:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Majid Rafizadeh]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ayatollah Khameini]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islam]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.frontpagemag.com/?p=243066</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Preparing for the post-Khamenei era. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="color: #1a1a1a;"><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10653322_941581589191709_3639992395284817096_n.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-243067" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10653322_941581589191709_3639992395284817096_n.jpg" alt="10653322_941581589191709_3639992395284817096_n" width="298" height="270" /></a>The news regarding the health of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has become unprecedented in the last few months. Several other indications suggest that Khamenei&#8217;s health is not only deteriorating but it is cause for a security concern. For example,  following Khamenei’s recent surgery on his prostate, high level officials such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hassan Rouhani, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an unprecedented visit to the ailing leader.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">This issue raises the question of what will happen if Iran’s current Supreme Leader, who has the final say in the Islamic Republic’s domestic and foreign policy affairs, dies. Who would be the successor? Will the Islamic Republic refashion its foreign policy towards the West, particularly the United States and Israel?</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">First of all, we have to understand Iran’s political structure and power relations in order to develop possible projections. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Velayateh Faqhih, is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which has 86 members. According to Iran’s revised constitution, “In the event of the death, resignation, or dismissal of the leader, the (Assembly of Experts) shall take steps within the shortest possible time for the appointment of the new leader. Until the appointment of the new leader, a council consisting of the president, head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council, upon the decision of the nation’s Expediency Council, shall temporarily take over all the duties of the Leader.”</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">Although Iranian people elect the members of the Assembly of Experts, it is crucial to point out that the Guardian Council, another crucial political power, vets the candidates beforehand. Only the previously selected members can run for the Assembly of Experts. In other words, the election is just a façade and purely ceremonial. In addition, the turnout for the elections for the members of the Assembly of Experts has always been very low. This is due to the fact that many Iranian people question the legitimacy of these candidates or do not believe that their votes can bring fundamental change.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">The members of the Guardian Council, on the other hand, are either directly selected by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (six members), or by the Judiciary and Majlis, Iran’s parliament (the other six members).</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">The other key player in making decisions in selecting the next Supreme Leader is the Expediency Council, which oversees disputes over legislation between the Guardian Council and the Islamic Republic’s parliament. It is worth noting that the members of the Expediency Council are also selected by the Supreme Leader. In other words, the aforementioned political bodies have never questioned the decisions, the power, or the political and divine authority of the Supreme Leader.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;"><strong>The Most Crucial Player in Post-Khamenei Era</strong></p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">Without a doubt, when it come to choosing the next Supreme Leader and making a decision on the nation’s post-Khamenei era, the most powerful political organization is Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). First of all, the IRGC not only militarily and politically controls the domestic and foreign affairs of the Islamic Republic, but it also owns main economic sectors of the country. Under the rule of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps gained more power to suppress domestic oppositions and intervene in domestic affairs of other countries in the Middle East. In addition, the senior cadre of IRGC has control over Iran’s nuclear program.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">As a result, having control over the economy, military, politics, and nuclear program, the IRGC will wield the most influence in choosing the next Supreme Leader. Although the Assembly of Experts might ceremonially elect another Ayatollah, the future Supreme Leader will have been chosen by the high officials of IRGC in advance. This suggests that it is likely that the IRGC leaders already have an option or list of names in their agenda.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">Nevertheless, the key question is what kind of cleric or political figure will the IRGC be looking for as the next Supreme Leader. Although some scholars have put out some names of influential Ayatollahs and clerics as potential and prospective Supreme Leaders for the Islamic Republic, it is less likely that the senior cadre of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps will desire to choose a powerful Supreme Leader who would fully control their activities. In other words, a charismatic, powerful and influential Ayatollah and political figure will be considered a threat to the rule of the senior cadre of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The best option for the IRGC is a weak figure whom they can control.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">Even when Khamenei was selected, he was considered a weak candidate in comparison to more powerful figures such as Ayatollah Montazeri or Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani at that time. At the time, Khamenei was not even a Mujtahed, a senior jurist who can issue fatwas. As time passed, Khamenei consolidated his power by marginalizing powerful opposition clerics and giving more power to the senior cadre of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">In addition, the IRGC will attempt to choose an individual who serves the IRGC’s objectives: obtaining nuclear capabilities, having a monopoly over economic and political affairs, having power in foreign policy and having the capability to intervene in other countries&#8217; affairs without hurdles from any political figures including the Supreme Leader.</p>
<p style="color: #1a1a1a;">In other words, the senior cadre of the IRGC will attempt to further consolidate its political and economic power by selecting a weak candidate. It follows that one should not expect any fundamental changes in the Islamic Republic’s domestic or foreign policies even if Supreme Leader Khamenei dies. In fact, the power of the elite of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps will increase, and their pursuit for regional hegemonic ambitions will intensify.</p>
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		<title>How ObamaCare Is Hurting My Family with Chronically Ill Kids</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/frontpagemag-com/how-obamacare-is-hurting-my-family-with-chronically-ill-kids/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-obamacare-is-hurting-my-family-with-chronically-ill-kids</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Aug 2013 04:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Frontpagemag.com]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=200692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Taxing the sick into poverty. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Visit <a href="http://www.catholicteapartyhippie.blogspot.com/">CatholicTeaPartyHippie.blogspot.com</a>.</strong></p>
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		<title>R.I.P. Britain&#8217;s Patient-Killing &#8216;Pathway to Death&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/arnold-ahlert/r-i-p-britains-patient-killing-pathway-to-death/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=r-i-p-britains-patient-killing-pathway-to-death</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jul 2013 04:15:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arnold Ahlert]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Mailer]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://frontpagemag.com/?p=197231</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And how ObamaCare will bring it to America. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/97769252.jpg"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-197242" alt="General Election - National Health Service" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/97769252-450x298.jpg" width="270" height="179" /></a>Americans who wonder how their medical care will evolve once the Affordable Healthcare Act is fully implemented should turn their attention to the UK. After a sustained campaign by the UK&#8217;s <i>Daily Mail</i>, the so-called Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) that provided end-of-life care to thousands of patients in Britain&#8217;s government-run National Health Service (NHS) will be <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2362436/NHS-death-pathway-scrapped-year-following-damning-report.html">phased out</a> over the next six to 12 months. This is due to the reality that an independent review board found &#8220;shocking examples of abuse&#8221; regarding the treatment of the system&#8217;s most vulnerable patients.</p>
<p>&#8220;We need a whole new system of better end of life care tailored to the needs of individual patients and involving their families,&#8221; said Care and Support Minister Norman Lamb. &#8220;I took the decision to launch this review because concerns were raised with me about how patients were being cared for and how families were being treated during this difficult and sensitive time.&#8221;</p>
<p>The review was <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/independent-review-of-liverpool-care-pathway-to-be-chaired-by-baroness-neuberger">undertaken</a> by Baroness Julia Neuberger, Senior Rabbi at the West London Synagogue, and former Chief Executive of the King’s Fund. Lady Neuberger, who has written about care for the dying, was tasked with talking to patients, families and medical professionals; reviewing hospital complaints; examining incentive payments made to hospitals for putting patients on the LCP; and analyzing literature informing the public about the benefits and limitations of the program.</p>
<p>The report, &#8220;More Care&#8211;Less Pathway,&#8221; <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2363543/Catalogue-abuse-killed-Liverpool-Care-Pathway.html">said</a> that while LCP was working well in many places, numerous examples of abuse made it impossible to continue its implementation.</p>
<p>According to excerpts obtained by the <i>Daily Mail, </i>patients were <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2363543/Catalogue-abuse-killed-Liverpool-Care-Pathway.html">subjected</a> to a catalogue of indignities. These included patients so heavily drugged they could no longer communicate with family members, completely eliminating the chance to say goodbye. &#8220;There have been too many coming forward to the review panel to say they left their loved one in a calm and peaceful state, able to communicate, for a short time, or with a doctor or a nurse for a check-up only to return and find a syringe driver had been put in place and their loved one was never able to communicate again,&#8221; the report states.</p>
<p>Patients had also been put on the pathway without consent. The <i>Mail</i> notes that last year as many as 60,000 patients &#8220;placed on the scheme were never asked for their consent, or their families were not asked, further revealing that many of those involved &#8220;found out by accident, and others recovered fully after relatives found out and got their loved ones taken off the pathway.&#8221;</p>
<p>With regard to protocols that call for nurses to moisten the lips of the dying after food and water have been withdrawn, many family members noted that their loved ones were sucking on the sponges, indicating that the LCP&#8217;s promise of &#8220;comfortable death&#8221; was misleading&#8211;and in some cases, possibly premature. Family members further reported that they were forced to hydrate their loved ones in secret, &#8220;disobeying instructions from medical staff to withhold fluids&#8221; according to the report.</p>
<p>Those instructions were part of what were described as a &#8220;tick box&#8221; approach to medical care, where standard practices trumped the needs of individual patients. &#8220;Where care is already poor, the pathway is sometimes used as a tick-box exercise, and good care for the dying patient or their relatives or cares may be absent,&#8221; the report reveals.</p>
<p>Far more damning is a 2012 investigation by the <i>Mail</i> in which they <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2223286/Hospitals-bribed-patients-pathway-death-Cash-incentive-NHS-trusts-meet-targets-Liverpool-Care-Pathway.html">alleged</a> that hospital trusts were being &#8220;bribed&#8221; with cash payments to insure that a certain percentage of patients were put on the LCP. According to the paper, payments were made though a system known as Commissioning for Quality and Innovation, or CQUIN. One trust that confirmed such targets was Aintree University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. They received $462,000 for the financial year that ended in March 2012, when 42 percent of their patients were placed on the LPC, versus a target number of 35 percent. On the other side of the equation, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust had CQUIN payments <i>cut</i> nearly in half for failing to reach targets where a certain percentage of patients on the LCP would be discharged to die at home. They were tasked with hitting a rate of 47.6 percent. When they only reached 45.5 percent their payment was reduced from $54,588 to $27,900. In 2012, the <i>Daily Telegraph</i> <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10177308/Liverpool-Care-Pathway-to-be-axed-in-favour-of-individual-treatment-plans.html">confirmed</a> that two thirds of NHS trusts using the LCP had received millions of pounds in payouts for hitting similar targets.</p>
<p>Neuberger&#8217;s report found no evidence of misuse regarding such payments, a telling revelation in and of itself, given the reality that monetary incentives for reaching such targets undoubtedly colors decisions made by healthcare professionals. Yet Minister Lamb refused to dance around the allegations, saying he thought the &#8220;bribes&#8221; make such a bad impression that they should be ended. The Department of Health apparently agreed, noting they will be abandoned under whatever new system is created.</p>
<p>As Melanie Phillips <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2363772/MELANIE-PHILLIPS-Hope-pathway-death--NHS-hole-heart-be.html">notes</a> &#8220;it is far from clear, despite the advance reports of the LCP’s demise, that the Government will do more than usher in a merely cosmetic change, rather than tackle the attitudes which lie at the very heart of this problem.&#8221; Minister Lamb promises that any new system will be tailored for individual patients, but Phillips contends that idea &#8220;fails to identify the very confusion at the core of this problem. This arises over the issue of medical staff being able to identify correctly when someone’s life is about to end.&#8221;</p>
<p>Phillips then gets to the meat of the problem. &#8220;Health care professionals either did not understand that someone who was extremely ill or mentally incapable was not actually dying&#8211;or, worse, they thought such a life was not worth extending and so terminated it.&#8221; According to Phillips, this &#8220;deeply troubling modern development&#8221; centers around &#8220;the progressive inability to distinguish between someone who really is dying and someone who it is thought should be dying because they are deemed to have such a poor quality of life.&#8221; As a result, &#8220;decency, compassion and simple kindness&#8221; have been trumped in far too many cases by &#8220;hatchet-faced self-interest, an arrogant and unchecked abuse of professional power and a brutal utilitarianism which has substituted a tendentious judgment of usefulness for innate respect for human life.&#8221;</p>
<p>If this sounds familiar, it&#8217;s because it describes the essence of command-and-control, big-government bureaucracy where the needs of the many outweigh the concerns of the individual&#8211;all for the &#8220;greater good.&#8221;</p>
<p>Here in America, &#8220;brutal utilitarianism&#8221; will be embodied in ObamaCare&#8217;s Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB). Dr. Tracy C. Miller succinctly explains what the IPAB is all about&#8211;and why the much-maligned description of it as a “death panel” is on the mark:</p>
<blockquote><p>Although intended to be a pejorative term, the term ‘death panel” accurately reflects decisions that have to be made about whom to save when resources are scarce. We simply do not have the resources to provide as much health care as people might desire for prolonging their lives or the lives of their loved ones. If government pays for health care, as it does for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries, limited funds necessitate that sometimes people will be denied access to care.</p></blockquote>
<p>The IPAB will <a href="http://www.lifenews.com/2013/05/30/independent-payment-advisory-boards-death-panels-should-not-be-implemented/">consist</a> of 15 members, presidentially nominated and Senate-confirmed, serving staggered, six year terms. They will be tasked with helping to <a href="http://m.freedomworks.org/blog/dean-clancy/top-ten-reasons-to-repeal-ipab-rationing-board">cut</a> $500 billion out of Medicare over the next decade, and providing reports to Congress about how to keep Medicare spending within limits outlined by the law. When the IPAB acts, ObamaCare <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324634304578539823614996636.html">stipulates</a> that there &#8220;shall be no administrative or judicial review&#8221; of the board&#8217;s decisions, which can only be overturned by a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress.</p>
<p>As bad as that is, it gets worse. If the president fails to nominate, or Congress fails to confirm, IPAB board members, then a smaller board&#8211;or even a single individual, the Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary (currently Kathleen Sebelius), can unilaterally impose cuts to Medicare that affect tens of millions of Americans.</p>
<p>Since Congress is currently at <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/obamacare-ipab-boehner-mcconnell-death-panels-2013-5">loggerheads</a> regarding the IPAB&#8217;s creation, and can only kill off the IPAB completely with a three-fifths supermajority vote that can only take from Jan. 1 to Aug. 15 <i>in 2017, </i>ceding unprecedented power to Sebelius or her successor seems increasingly likely. That would be the same Kathleen Sebelius who was recently willing to let a 10-year-old girl named Sarah Murnaghan die, rather than allow her access to the adult lung-transplant list. The little girl was saved only after a judge overruled the HHS Secretary.</p>
<p>Equally important, the IPAB absolves Congress from having to make critical decisions about the future of Medicare, shifting that responsibility to the executive branch of government. The Democratically-controlled Congress that enacted ObamaCare also made the IPAB exempt from sunshine laws, even as it “may accept, use, and dispose of gifts or donations of services or property.”</p>
<p>In other words, Americans will have their healthcare decisions adjudicated by an unelected group of unaccountable bureaucrats whose decisions can be influenced by lobbyists, undoubtedly willing to provide gifts or donations of services or property to board members for favorable treatment.</p>
<p>The IPAB&#8217;s defenders note that the healthcare law mandates that even as the board is required to make deep cuts to Medicare, rationing of healthcare itself is prohibited. This nonsensical provision means that cuts to service <i>providers</i>, as in doctors, hospitals and other healthcare entities, will be the only viable cost-cutting alternative to pursue. Many doctors are already limiting the number of Medicare patients they take due to current cuts in reimbursements. As for hospitals, Medicare&#8217;s Chief Actuary estimated that ten years of IPAB cuts will force 15 percent of America&#8217;s hospitals to go out of business.</p>
<p>Thus, the &#8220;brutally utilitarian&#8221; wheels of ObamaCare have been set in motion. Yet Americans must never lose sight of the reality that, as far as progressives are concerned, the current healthcare law is merely the penultimate part of a journey whose final destination is the complete government takeover of our healthcare system.</p>
<p>As imperfect and aggravating as the current system is, Americans can still access private sector alternatives when seeking treatment denied by the government. Once those alternatives are eliminated, we will be just like Great Britain &#8212; pathway and all.</p>
<p>A modest suggestion: Americans should demand that every member of Congress, the Executive branch, every other government employee currently enjoying their “Cadillac” healthcare plans, be required to use the same healthcare system being imposed on the rest of us. That demand should be an integral part of the 2014 election campaign. &#8220;Brutal utilitarianism&#8221; should apply to everyone &#8212; or no one.</p>
<p><strong>Freedom Center pamphlets now available on Kindle: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Ddigital-text&amp;field-keywords=david+horowitz&amp;rh=n%3A133140011%2Ck%3Adavid+horowitz&amp;ajr=0#/ref=sr_st?keywords=david+horowitz&amp;qid=1316459840&amp;rh=n%3A133140011%2Ck%3Adavid+horowitz&amp;sort=daterank">Click here</a>.</strong></p>
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		<title>Castro Fuels Rumors of a Chávez Death Watch</title>
		<link>http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/david-paulin/castro-fuels-rumors-of-a-chavez-death-watch-2/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=castro-fuels-rumors-of-a-chavez-death-watch-2</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2013 04:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Paulin]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Cuba]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Hugo Chavez]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The final days for the Venezuelan strongman? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://frontpagemag.com/2013/david-paulin/castro-fuels-rumors-of-a-chavez-death-watch-2/0006d2dc-642/" rel="attachment wp-att-171978"><img class="alignleft  wp-image-171978" title="0006d2dc-642" src="http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/0006d2dc-642-450x324.jpg" alt="" width="270" height="194" /></a>Rumors are flying in Venezuela that Hugo Chávez is on his death bed – fighting a <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/31/venezuelas-chavez-suffers-new-complications-cancer/">respiratory infection </a>in a Havana oncology ward that, according to official statements, developed after his fourth cancer surgery. Now, Fidel Castro is fueling rumors of a death watch with an open letter to Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro.</p>
<p>It has the tone of a funeral eulogy.</p>
<p>Sent by Castro on New Year&#8217;s Day, the 350-word letter also was <a href="http://www.granma.cu/ingles/cuba-i/18dic-Letter.html">published in Granma</a>, the official newspaper of the Cuban Communist Party&#8217;s Central Committee. Castro, a mentor to Chávez over the years, recalls his first meeting with Venezuela&#8217;s strongman in Havana in 1994; this was not long after Chávez, then a cashiered Army paratrooper, was released from prison for leading an aborted military coup in 1992. Castro details his revolutionary struggles with Chávez and – most tellingly – observes that “however painful (Chávez&#8217;s) absence, all of you will be capable of continuing his work.” Cuba has been a recipient of Venezuela&#8217;s oil and economic largesse; it has many agents in Venezuela helping Chávez&#8217;s security services.</p>
<p>The impetus for the letter, as Castro explained at the onset, was to mark the eighth anniversary for the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas, currently an eight-member political and economic group that includes countries from Latin America and the Caribbean. An alternative to the Free Trade Area of the Americas, it was put forth by Chávez to counter U.S. dominance in the region.</p>
<p>Recalling the first time he met Chávez, Castro wrote:</p>
<blockquote><p>I met Hugo Chávez exactly 18 years ago. Someone invited him to Cuba and he accepted the invitation. He told me that he was thinking of asking for an interview with me. I was far from imagining that those soldiers branded as coup plotters by the news agencies, who sowed their ideas with so much discretion for years, were a select group of Bolivarian revolutionaries. I waited for Chávez at the airport, took him to where he was staying and talked with him for hours, exchanging ideas.</p>
<p>The following day, in the University of Havana’s Aula Magna, each one of us expressed our ideas.</p></blockquote>
<p>(Readers can see Chávez&#8217;s speech, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPIHGxHZkgs&amp;list=FLhcRY22v3s3rJFFMeVY3Qrw">here</a>. Although it&#8217;s in Spanish, two things surmount language barriers: Chávez&#8217;s telegenic presence and his aura of being a True Believer.)</p>
<p>Regarding Cuba&#8217;s close ties with Venezuela, Castro also mentioned Venezuela&#8217;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vargas_tragedy">mudslide disaster</a> in 1999 &#8212; and how Cuban physicians and medical aid were sent in response. “Our medical cooperation with Venezuela began as a result of the Vargas tragedy in which thousands of people died as a consequence of the abandonment and lack of foresight experienced by the poorest population of this state.”</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a fanciful narrative, to be sure, about what happened along the coastline of Vargas State, 20 miles north of Caracas. It ignores the truth: Chávez&#8217;s inept leadership and do-or-die political ambitions facilitated the deaths of 30,000 or more Venezuelans in the mudslide disaster. Most of the victims were poor.</p>
<p>Although not widely reported outside of Venezuela, Chávez and his advisers ignored the unusually heavy rains (and possibility of deadly mudslides and flooding), because they were determined to go ahead with a national referendum, on December 15, that was needed to adopt a new constitution. The constitution was a pivotal step in consolidating Chávez&#8217;s power – and enabled him to pack the Supreme Court with political cronies.</p>
<p>Despite the menacing rains, Chávez urged Venezuelans to go to the polls. No matter that emergencies were being declared and evacuations undertaken in neighboring states, including by Miranda state Gov. Enrique Mendoza – a Chávez opponent – who had a reputation for good governance.</p>
<p>Writing at the excellent blog Venezuela News and Views, Jorge Arena provides a <a href="http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2005/02/rains-and-quest-for-absolute-power.html">cogent time line </a>of what in fact happened, explaining:</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.eluniversal.com/1999/12/15/pol_art_15102AA.shtml">On December 15</a>, 1999 the referendum process started despite the heavy rains. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez appeared on TV and asked the Venezuelan people to go massively to vote and to vote early. He said that nobody should be prevented to go to vote because of the rains. He reminded Venezuelans of the old sentence by Simon Bolivar “If Nature is against us; we will fight against her and make her obey.” Many centers could not open and many table witnesses could not be present because of the rain situation. Problems were reported in several states. Members of the church with the CNE directory prayed to God for the climate to improve. Evacuations started in the state of Falcon.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eluniversal.com/1999/12/16/pol_art_16101xx.shtml">On December 16</a>, 1999 the country realized the magnitude of the disaster. Vargas state was completely cut from the rest of the country. Some Constitutional Assembly members celebrated the referendum win but others, like (Aristóbulo) Isturiz, asked for restraint.</p></blockquote>
<p>Explaining how Chávez put the Vargas disaster to good use, Arena added:</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.eluniversal.com/1999/12/24/apo_art_24102EE.shtml">On December 24</a>, 1999 the judges of the new Supreme Court, baptized “Tribunal Supremo de Justicia” (TSJ) were swore in. They were hand-picked by the so-called “Congresillo”, a subset of the Constitutional Assembly that had taken the role of the dissolved Congress. In the turmoil that followed the disaster, very few eyes were paying attention to this very important nomination. The smooth transition that was supposed to take place from the old to the new Constitutional rule did not take place given the state of emergency.</p>
<p>So, by the end of December 1999, Venezuela had a brand new Constitution and a brand new Supreme Court. Chávez had won the first round for the absolute control of the country. There were however tens of thousands deaths, a major economic disaster and entire areas of the country to be rebuilt. If the government had declared the State of emergency sooner, stopped the referendum and evacuated as quick as possible the affected areas thousands of lives could have been saved. They did not do it because they put their political agenda before the well being of the Venezuelan people.</p>
<p>To me, that is criminal negligence.</p>
<p>History will be the judge.</p></blockquote>
<p>Interestingly, it was during the Vargas disaster that Chávez established his anti-American credentials – turning away U.S. Navy ships that were steaming to Venezuela with military engineers, physicians, and equipment &#8212; part of the international aid effort. They&#8217;d been invited by a senior military official in Chávez&#8217;s government. Ten years later, residents of Vargas still <a href="http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=348951&amp;CategoryId=10717">complained bitterly </a>about Venezuela&#8217;s inadequate response to the natural disaster. Vargas remained a mess.</p>
<p>Although Chávez turned away the U.S. Navy ships, the U.S. nevertheless played a significant role in helping Venezuela – as Venezuelans clearly saw when U.S. Army Blackhawk helicopters were carrying out rescue flights. Yet Chávez&#8217;s officials attempted to minimize the U.S. aid as was noted in a Washington Times <a href="http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-58376596.html">article </a>that I wrote as a Caracas-based correspondent.</p>
<p>How long will Chávez live? Venezuela&#8217;s government has treated his cancer as a state secret, releasing few details. But the little information that has been released suggests to some cancer specialists that Chávez (in light of four surgeries to the pelvic area, radiation treatment, and chemotherapy) is suffering from a sarcoma. “Patients who suffer from sarcoma tumors that are aggressive and incurable usually live between one to three years. If Mr. Chávez suffered from advanced sarcoma when he was diagnosed, he would be in the middle of that range right now,” the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out in an <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323297104578177482710236790.html">article</a>,</p>
<p>“Outlook for Chávez darkens, doctors say.”</p>
<p>And in an observation that may surprise Michael Moore, that same article indicated that Chávez&#8217;s insistence on being treated in Cuba was a fatal mistake: Havana&#8217;s cancer center, after all, “isn&#8217;t considered among the elite anticancer or sarcoma centers, a handful of which are located in the U.S. and Europe, doctors say.”</p>
<p>Vice president Nicolás Maduro, a Chávez yes man, was a bus driver-turned union leader before getting into leftist politics. He lacks Chávez&#8217;s charisma and connection to Venezuela&#8217;s poor majority. Yet some political observers regard him as more pragmatic and flexible than Chávez – perhaps less likely, in other words, to put leftist ideology and anti-American hatred above the welfare of Venezuela&#8217;s people who, thanks to Chávez, are enduring record levels of crime, corruption, and food shortages.</p>
<p>If Chávez dies or steps down, presidential elections will be held in 30 days. Even if an opposition candidate wins, Venezuela will not recover anytime soon from 14 years of Hugo Chávez.</p>
<p><strong>Freedom Center pamphlets now available on Kindle: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Ddigital-text&amp;field-keywords=david+horowitz&amp;rh=n%3A133140011%2Ck%3Adavid+horowitz&amp;ajr=0#/ref=sr_st?keywords=david+horowitz&amp;qid=1316459840&amp;rh=n%3A133140011%2Ck%3Adavid+horowitz&amp;sort=daterank">Click here</a>.</strong></p>
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