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After Dems faceplanted by believing that they could rely on Latinos as a base even the economy was sideways, Republicans did the same thing with much less evidence and on much weaker grounds.
Unlike the black vote, the Latino vote is not really a single entity and can be broken down into immigrant generations, country of origin, and religious affiliation, but the basic bottom line is that they adhere more closely to Dems, likely reflecting greater Democrat investment in Latino voter outreach, Latino candidates and community social welfare, but are an economic swing vote. They’re not full time Democrats, but they’re certainly not Republicans, and more closely resemble Independents whose big issue isn’t immigration, but the economy and general quality of life.
Republican consultants who decided that they could could on Latinos in special elections, midterm elections and local elections were committing political malpractice. Trump proved Latinos (at least some Latinos) are winnable, they are certainly not a Republican base. Run during an economic crisis as a non-incumbent on a platform of economic populism and you can win over some Latino voters, but don’t expect this to be an annual thing.
The Latino shift in 2025 had little to do with ICE and, like that of other voters, had a great deal to do with economic dissatisfaction by swing and independent voters. Republicans would be stupid to assume that they can just win with Latinos, but Dems would be equally stupid to assume that they can always count on Latino voters to show up for them.
Nobody voted for the GOP, they only voted for Trump and MAGA/MAHA and to blow up the status quo. Traditional GOP elected officials only exist because the old GOP still controls a lot of the donor class money and the party apparatus in most states. The establishment GOP despises the new Trump coalition of voters with the intensity of a thousand suns, just as they did the Tea Party; and has greeted their opportunity at easy majority status for two decades with a massive dose of disillusionment for the newcomers.
An acquaintance of mine, a black medical professional who has done well in life, wanted to run for office as a Republican in my Red State. The Republican establishment was hostile to him to the point of outright stupidity — “Crushed by the Establishment” would be the news headline.
There is a deep divide in the Republican party everywhere. They can put up a big tent, as they say, but only a select group are truly invited in.
Time for the GOP to Wake Up and Smell the Coffee and put America and Americans First
President Trump’s most recent statement that the “price of everything is down” would be funny if such statements weren’t ammunition for Democrats. The inflation rate for the last year is 3%, You can argue correctly that is 50% above the Fed’s target, (3-2)/2 = 50%, or 1%. Regardless, it is beyond dumb to make such a statement.
President Trump, to the chagrin of U.S. farmers that are going to get bailed out with taxpayers’ dollars, wants to allow more imports of Argentinian beef to bring prices down. Some jokes write themselves.
If the economy doesn’t pick up, and if already high prices keep increasing, once again the GOP will learn the consequences of ignoring “it’s the economy, stupid.”